I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

ha alarys is a different but also awful shithole.

2-party shitstem politricks

i'm not american and i am starting to be quite nervous about this.

You have my personal promise that Romney will not win.

recent polls out today aren't looking too good for obama

lol whatever

like this one?

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/marquette-poll-obama-leads-wisconsin.php

be a man and post a link or stfu

xpost

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/31/nate-silver-and-the-forecasting-consensus-in-one-chart/

but that's from twelve whole hours ago so you never know

in the last 12 hours three undecideds in Idaho moved into the Romney camp.

haha you guys aren't any fun

I got some applesauce for ya, baby.

it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.

is this getting traction in the MSM/ cable news? seems like a p big deal to me if Romney won't answer questions from the reporters traveling with him

Staging donations?

Empty-handed supporters pled for entrance, with one woman asking, “What if we dropped off our donations up front?”

The volunteer gestured toward a pile of groceries conveniently stacked near the candidate. “Just grab something,” he said.

Two teenage boys retrieved a jar of peanut butter each, and got in line. When it was their turn, they handed their “donations” to Romney. He took them, smiled, and offered an earnest “Thank you.”

keeping it classy

are all these stories about Romney's staged events just popping up on the online newsources, or are they getting reported on in any of the big msm outlets?

Saw a bit on NBC news last night on the Romney Storm Related Event. No mention whatsoever of the Red Cross' thanks-but-no-thanks response to food donations.

The big three are too afraid to appear biased these days, even if that means ignoring a whole bunch of stuff that's absolutely true.

Forget answering questions about the auto industry or taxes or whatever bullshit. Romney still hasn't explained the fundamental operation of his mystery budget plan. His entire secret economic platform hinges on vague promises.

I was waiting for the Red Cross punchline in that NBC report, but it never came. Beyond being journalistically irresponsible, it also tacitly encouraged people to make donations to the Red Cross that the Red Cross neither needs nor wants.

xp

maybe he can deliver the unwanted food to them on the unwanted ships he builds for the navy

Haven't kept up today--did Romney get hammered on his FEMA statements from the debate?

Nate Silver still has Obama up with ~77% to take the electoral college, the only thing that actually matters.

Late game polling that shows dead heats is, IMO, mostly a way for cable news to drum up ratings.

Also their probably not polling people who have cast early ballots, which I'd imagine takes out a big chunk of Obama supporters who have already voted for Obama...

*they're... the ineffable THEM!

this is a lot of bad polls for Romney in a hurry it seems like

early voting has been split pretty evenly i think

conservatives flipping out at silver/poll aggregation are of course losing it hard, but let me put it in perspective anyway

if i gave you only 70-75% chance of keeping your job past next week, would you not say you were in significant danger of getting canned? i mean, shit. romney's course is uphill but his chances aren't bad at all.

A couple weeks ago I saw a stat that said ~80 of early voters were young voters, women, african-americans, latinos or a combination of those demographics... But I guess those were the real early-bird early voters. Still accounted for like 3 million votes.

really interested to see what Silver does to the percentage after these polls though

if i gave you only 70-75% chance of keeping your job past next week, would you not say you were in significant danger of getting canned?

yes because i understand basic statistics and probability

hahaha was just gonna say

i was having trouble forming a response to that

'job security' for elected officials and everyone else is apples and oranges, h8 when people throw around those analogies as if they're meaningful

well right, i was just trying to give that % chance something other than "it must be a huge lie"

his chances of winning are pretty bad though

What are you talking about, Romney has a better chance of winning this than 99.9% of all people ever!

I started thinking about Silver's 70-30 split in terms of baseball. Or even 75-25; if a lifetime .250 hitter gets a hit, you're not shocked or anything. So low probability, yes (if Silver's right, and I'm sure he is), but Romney winning would be like Curtis Granderson getting a hit, or flipping two consecutive heads.

Doping might account for recent Romney gains.

Taking Sides: Mitt Romney or Curtis Granderson

If Silver moves to 80/20, then we're into Mario Mendoza/Adam Dunn territory, and yes, it's a shock when those guys get a hit.

oh good – baseball talk!

Yeah except even great hitters only get a hit 30-35% of the time so really that's not a good comparison.

Flawed, agreed. Let's not agitate Alfred any further.

I like thinkign about romney's VORP

baseball averages aren't exactly the same thing as probabilities either

They vary from year to year--.280 one year, .310 the next--so they're different that way, but as a snapshot, aren't they the same? If a .250 hitter steps to the plate after a large enough sample of at-bats, doesn't he have a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit?

2 possible ways to visualize/make intuitive a 70% chance of winning

-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3
-> on election day, God rolls a 10-sided die (7 sides obama, 3 sides romney)

Same thing. If Romney wins 3 out of every 10 days, a win on any one day wouldn't be shocking.