Human Extinction Scenarios

in terms of "likelihood" + potential to actually make man extinct i'm going w/ asteroid/comet over physics disaster and space invaders

We’re living in a simulation and it gets shut down

the simulation argument is outstanding:

This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

iain banks turns it into a religion in one of his books (their core belief is that we are in a sim and if they get enough converts believing this, running the sim will become pointless and it will get shut down)

I hope earth human civilization ends due to superintelligent ants and their ability to construct geometric solids like in PHASE IV

http://www.goofbutton.com/images/phase_iv%20%2835%29.jpg

I will also once again seize the opportunity to link the classic Excerpts from
Expert Judgement on Markers to Deter Inadvertent Human Intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

http://downlode.org/Etext/WIPP/sickening.gif

Oh god, I love that WIPP thing so so much.

MENACING EARTHWORKS

Asteroid is the obvious candidate for sudden extinction. For a somewhat more lingering extinction, that would be rampant global warming. Most of the others are unduly influenced by sci-fi or some kind of futurist twaddle.

sometimes I sorta want an asteroid to come hurling at us because then all the world governments and top scientists would all be working together to find a way to stop it and we would come up w/ some crazy missile project and when it worked everyone in the world would celebrate together in the biggest party ever

there would be so much sex

instead we are just gonna sit around while the world warms and say 'not it' until it's too late and there's not even a party

really tho, think about the party, it would be like if every country in the world won the world cup at the same time

missing option: widespread adoption of teledildonics

sadly, i think it might be a bit more violent than that xp

it would suck if you fell into a coma or something for a week and then when you woke up you realized you missed the best party in human history

it would suck if you fell into a coma or something for a week and then when you woke up you realized that the rest of the world had been destroyed

destroyed by the party? I guess that would be pretty ironic

sure

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll world is closing tomorrow.

Download complete

Non-zero probability of it happening

"takeover by a transcending upload" is probably my favorite deus ex ending so that one

May I recommend an old favorite website exitmundi.nl which collected a bunch of end of the world scenarios a decade ago....

Bangs Crunches Shrieks and Whimpers sounds like a gym workout

I think we should put together an ilxor world fap readiness plan for when the end of world announcement is made
We all meet in...um...Brussels* at the stroke of midnight. deal? Okay.

*it was the first place I thought of, can replace with agreed upon city.

New York, duh. We have the best zombies.

god forbid new Yorkers ever leave new York, how could I forget :)

voted gray goo

voted transcending upload
why bc it looks interesting

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c4/Colossus_the_forbin_project_movie_poster.jpg/220px-Colossus_the_forbin_project_movie_poster.jpg

^^^ one of the best "superintelligent computer" movies, not a transcendent upload though but certainly a self-improving computer. But it turns out not to result in the extinction of all mankind, just our enslavement.

Nuclear annihlation still seems totally possible and could happen at the shortest drop of a hat, one wrong button press and that's that. New plague and/or evil nanobots also could basically happen, right?

Not sure I buy global warming as an extinction level event as opposed to just a decline and fall of modern life as we know it

Yeah, I feel like as long as nuclear weapons are still lying around, the potential for nuclear annihilation still exists.

everyone in the world would celebrate together in the biggest party ever

Not everyone; the "left behind" folks and other armegeddonish types would be way-bummed.

Destruction by ETs is my favourite => foolish arrogant earthlings thinking that we're kings of the universe and all that. Congratulations, Planet Xmorphion-93Q - what can we way, the better team won!

"Armageddon-ish"

voted nuclear holocaust for nostalgia's sake.

i dont think nuclear annihilation is considered possible, there simply aren't enough nukes on the planet (probably never were)

there never were enough nukes, old man. there never were. *kicks dust*

http://gizmodo.com/5899569/how-many-nukes-would-it-take-to-blow-up-the-entire-planet

Of course, none of these figures take fallout and other atmospheric effects into account—just square mileage blown away. So it'd actually, technically, require fewer warheads to exterminate our species. But that's irrelevant, Maximilian points out: "There are an estimated total of 20,500 nuclear warheads in the world today. If the average power of these devices is 33,500 Kilotons, there are enough to destroy the total earth landmass." And why do we need so many of these things again?

This website looks like it'd be good for many of these topics: http://armageddononline.tripod.com/nuclear.htm

i like physics disasters, among a bunch of disenchanting punishments for hubris wherein we insignificantly fizzle out, it'd be nice to prove our importance by DESTROYING THE ENTIRE UNIVERSE.

worried about this poll ending

ends with us all being raptured

Polls tend to end in a whimper

world will be ended by dozens of lurkers all voting at once

d3athdr0n3 maybe

world ends when we're tied up and can't prevent a certain box from being opened.

really so many of these scenarios enlivened my childhood

i was terrified of nuclear war as a kid, still kind of am... but since I get kinda panic attacky thinking abt how the world will actually end I went with a lolsy fiddle-dee-dee answer

tbh most of this stuff scares the crap out of me *peeks out from under blanket*

i used to stand on the big hill behind my house and listen real intently for incoming icbm. #bornmorbid

also i swear to god i remember getting a duck and cover lesson during the last major round of nuclear brinksmanship but i have to wonder if my mind didnt invent it because i have to assume that by '84 to '86 d&c was considered a pretty lol proventative measure.

9-9-9 tax proposal = proof that humanity is living in a simulation

I took solace in the fact that we lived in the central of so many urban areas (Baltimore, Philadelphia, DC) and close to a major AFB so we'd probably die in the initial strike and not have to cling to some cruel mockery of life like those suckers in The Day After.

strongo, how old are you? I remember a duck and cover drill in elementary school in the 80s, including the part about putting newspaper over your head, which I know wouldn't work having seen The Day After and ruminating near constantly on our inevitable total nuclear annihilation.

i see you reading this, i know what you're thinking here: how will i tell my children? look, if you're gonna talk to your children about this, just tell them "Asteroid 2024 YR4 certainly does not pose an existential risk to civilization — it’s not nearly big enough. But it would deliver a significant punch if it struck Earth. Astronomers initially estimated its diameter as roughly 130 to 300 feet."

wish you hadn't bumped this. that asteroid isn't NEARLY big enough!!!

i had hoped for bigger! one thing that goes unmentioned during those scenarios is the fish. "70% chance that the asteroid will hit the water, ocean, etc"...that's great and everything, but how does that feel for fish?

2032 is plenty of lead time to send Ben Affleck to deflect this thing, or given the football-field scale of it, the entire Manning clan. For a 1% chance at saving the world, it is totally worth a one-way trip!