2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

My wife also thinks McCain will win for the same reason (couldn't actually read that article due to log-in requirement).

I don't know if that's the case. Obama could win on GOTV and charisma. One obvious comparison is Dole/Clinton, although McCain might not come off as kindly and grandpa-like as Dole.

I logged in with the first one here

I wouldn't underestimate McCain's age as a potential drag on his campaign.

Maybe, Hurting. But Obama's on the roll of his life now, and he still at significant disadvantage vis-a-vis McCain. (xp)

still at significant disadvantage

whaaaa? hes way ahead in every poll and has been all along

Obama is within the margin of error from McCain in that poll.

And you're talking about a very established, well-known candidate vs. an upstart at this point, so Obama still has the chance to win plenty of people over.

Not to mention that you're matching a candidate still fighting it out in primaries with one that's already the presumptive nominee.

lol one poll where theyre tied and like 20 that obamas ahead by as much as 15 points

mccain can win but the deck is srsly stacked against him - independents are all voting dem in the primaries - the gop is just hemorrhaging voters - its really hard to overstate the damage bush has done to the party - for further evidence see the 06 elections

lol the gop still wont line up behind mccain - huckabee polling @ up to 40% in texas

tell me I'm not the only one who wants to see a Tim Russert slasher flick

You're not alone -- he was scary when he started screaming "GET OUT OF MY COUNTRY NOW!"

obama was great. he has really gotten much, much better at these things.

-- YGS, Tuesday, February 26, 2008 10:43 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

^^^this

that ny times article is awful, russert was an asshole to both of them, and he cut off obama a number of times also

He acted like he was the one running for president.

If either of those two are elected he'll be running from the president.

We'll see. Let's put it this way, given how much Bush has damaged the GOP brand, I think most Democratic leaders and strategists would have been very surprised if you told them, six months ago, that they'd be running neck-and-neck or behind the GOP nominee in February. And don't discount the key findings of that poll: McCain seen as the stronger leader, and better equipped to handle Iraq and terrorism.

To me, much of what you need to know about this election comes from the early graphs of an article in the current edition of Rolling Stone:

Behind me, a pair of aging Soccer Moms in acrylic sweaters sing McCain's praises. "I can't even imagine being a prisoner of war," says Mom Number One. "It must be so hard."

"Yeah," agrees Number Two. "You know he won't surrender over there."

"Mm-hmm," says the first. Then, after a pause: "Oh, hey, you know what I watched yesterday? Saving Private Ryan. And We Were Soldiers."

"Oh, those are great war movies," says Mom Number Two. "Great war movies."

Another pause. Then, "Oh, I went to that new buffet," says Mom Number One. "The one with the salads. I have to say, I'm not that into sweetbreads."

I want to choke the life out of both of them. But how do you communicate to someone the sheer insanity of voting to bomb the fuck out of some distant country while you sit safe and cozy in the Virginia suburbs, evaluating sweetbreads — just so the world can keep on feeling like the heroic war movies you rock yourself to sleep with on Sunday afternoons?

The answer is you can't.

So again, we'll see . . .

those women sound like REPUBLICANS. no one is saying that there aren't a lot of republicans in the US, and many of them support mccain.

also, I have a hard time reconciling people finding mccain as the 'strong leader on iraq' when every other poll states that americans want us out of iraq by a 2/3rds margin.

I'm sure they are, akm. And as to the disconnect between public opinion on Iraq and McCain's position on it, that's been true in the GOP primaries, as well. McCain -- for whatever reason -- cleans up among people who want us out of Iraq the fastest. I don't think it's because people don't know his position. I think it's because people vote on vague impressions (sometimes including vague impressions of policy positions) and character, less so on policy positions.

I call bullshit on that Rolling Stone article - there's no way two soccer moms were discussing great war movies and sweetbread buffets.

That article is embarrassing.

http://www.hbo.com/thewire/img/castcrew/character_season05/character/scotttempleton.jpg

You're right that the article is analytically shoddy (lots of RS political coverage is), but that has nothing to do with the paragraphs I quoted.

no, I'm referring to the quotes being totally fabricated in order to advance the author's argument.

STRAWWOMEN

OK that was his best debate answer ever.

Which one was that?

Obama: "If you've watched Saturday Night Live for the last year, Hillary's a haughty ice-bitch."

I turned on WNYC when I got home last night, and they were replaying the debate; I lasted 15 seconds of a Rodham nonresponse. You folks are masochists.

daniel get a hold of yrself its one poll plz to look at million other polls that have obama up by double digits jeez cherry picking

You folks are masochists.

I gotta agree. (In that I'm honestly surprised so many of you are watching these debates still -- then again I've avoided them entirely, they strike me as being huge distractions at best.)

when you don't have cable,have blown thru your batch of Netflix films, and are single, it's a decent way of spending 45 minutes.

I'm all of those things (Netflix aside) but have resisted this conclusion.

it's a decent way of spending 45 minutes

that's true ... too bad they last for 90

I skipped the texas one but felt like this one was the last stand and I should watch ... there were a couple interesting bits but mostly I was annoyed at russert trying to manufacture news

For someone as dedicated to right-wing political blogs as yourself, Ned, I'm not sure that you're in a great position to be calling other people masochistic!

Hooray!

(I'll say that the big advantage with reading as opposed to watching/listening -- I don't have visuals and voices stuck in my head whether I want it or not.)

The debates I've seen have been 100,000,000,000,000,000% more informative than any coverage (and that includes the entirety of "liberal blogosphere")

that's true ... too bad they last for 90

That's when I return to Robert A. Caro.

Tracer, I haven't watched any presidential debates since 1992, so I doubt I'm going to be won over now.

this was the only debate that actually held my attention the whole time fwiw

yeah me too

hillary gave a pretty solid answer on the russia pop quiz question and the russ dawg still had to get in his smug knowitall schtick. "WELL if you had done yr homework like me you would know he is a 40-year-old law professor and amateur chess champion, his favorite color is green and he's a Leo"

the idea that listening to the candidates actually talk about their views -- rather than hearing them filtered through press/pundits -- is a distraction is tenuous at best

Sunny said that Russert looks like an Aussie.

I'm perfectly willing to concede that 90% of my interest is for the histrionics.

i do have to admit that I think Hillary is more impressive when she talks about foreign policy, Obama often comes across as a little hesitant. I mean I voted for him and support him but I think she talks that talk a lot better than he does. I think he needs to work on this a bit before the GE (duh obviously he will)

Russert went to my alma mater. /max

hillary is a better debater, period. the parts where she gets tripped up are where the facts just aren't on her side, ie any discussion of the Iraq war or the back and forth last night over NAFTA. other than that she's usually really solid. (except for the attempted SNL zing which was axtremely dumb.)

the idea that listening to the candidates actually talk about their views -- rather than hearing them filtered through press/pundits -- is a distraction is tenuous at best

Position papers, speeches, voting records -- even, if you like, debate transcripts -- these are things all readily available for research and review. Words as well as actions can be accessed very easily, especially now, and you'll forgive me if I prefer to do so that way, at my own pace and in my own preferred way, rather than televised debates.

AXTREME. extremely (xpost to myself)

aside from sounding like whining, does she think we switch medias for the general election? you have to live w/ these people. running against the media seems like a terrible strategy all around and I don't think most voters give a shit.

I realized last night that what I don't like about her is that she's too sarcastic and comes across as patronizing. maybe that's what everyone doesn't like about her, I dunno, but it took me until last night to realize this.

dont forget abt the plastered on smile! (srsly so strange)

I can see the debates being of some value (tho not face value) if I hadn't already made up my mind and voted in a primary, but I have.