2012 republican presidential nominee IV: NEEDS MORE BOOING

To correct myself, obvious Romney doesn't win the night. But if he survives Ohio, he crawls forward in the right direction.

dennis kucinich about to lose his primary.. wow

rip big man

he still has his wife at least

Obama now unopposed in biggest-ears primary.

Everyone knew at the beginning of the night that Romney was going to come out of Ohio with more delegates. The percentage is important for momentum and perception among voters/party elders/etc.

dennis kucinich about to lose his primary.. wow

― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:02 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that was predictable, i think. he's up against a very popular representative who's been serving since the early 80s.

oh was it a redistricting thing? i hadn't been paying attention

romney now with 1k lead at 84.7%

oh was it a redistricting thing? i hadn't been paying attention

― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:10 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah. ohio lost 2 or 3 representatives and most of kucinich's district (around cleveland) was combined with much of kaptur's district (around toledo).

in this case, as in chicago etc., the primary is the general. i think the winner will face joe the "plumber" LOL

According to Sullivan, they're hovering around the margin (0.25%) where an automatic recount kicks in.

kaptur is reliably liberal amirite?

have you ever seen a cuter KAPTUR?

in this case, as in chicago etc., the primary is the general. i think the winner will face joe the "plumber" LOL

― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 11:13 PM (32 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ha amazing i would pay to see a plumber/kucinich debate rip

hey this horrible person isnt gonna be in congress any more http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/jean-schmidt-loses-house-seat-in-major-gop-primary-upset.php p cool

Wenstrup had challenged Schmidt from her right on such issues as the debt ceiling, pitching himself as a Washington outsider.

ha great. either an opportunist or a bigger crank

I figured they would have called this for Romney by now.

can't have people tuning out to go to bed finally can you?

Yeah, they're also pretty desperate to spin it in such a way that Santorum stays in and they can get another month out of this one.

called by msnbc

get the sense that if i super-right-winger runs on GOP ticket in schmidt's district, the seat might very well change parties.

kaptur is reliably liberal amirite?

― kurwa mać (Polish for "long life") (Eisbaer), Tuesday, March 6, 2012 10:22 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup.

she's in the progressive caucus. kind of feel like kucinich could've sat this one out and just joined air america or something, i dunno. whatever.

santorum is a zealot on a crusade, tho. i wonder how much actual reality it will take to grind the gross metric tonnage of that entire train to a halt.

I think, delegate-wise, this is pretty insurmountable for him. However, if Newt magically decides to drop out (not likely) and Santorum starts picking up all of those delegates that the Ging is siphoning off of him, he could play a role. That, of course, combined with doubling down on the Romneycare/Obamacare thing which, with the right soundbites, could rip into Romney's credibility and set up a convincing argument that the General Election needs to be one of CONTRASTS.

santorum is a zealot on a crusade, tho. i wonder how much actual reality it will take to grind the gross metric tonnage of that entire train to a halt.

― Spleen of Hearts (kingfish), Wednesday, March 7, 2012 1:34 AM (17 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

so what you're saying is that in a few months we'll have to clean up after several gross metric tons of santorum?

Should do wonders for the greenery

if Newt magically decides to drop out (not likely) and Santorum starts picking up all of those delegates that the Ging is siphoning off of him, he could play a role.

idk that more Gingrich supporters would go to Santorum than Romney. I know a lot of Gingrich's appeal is that he's a not-Romney, but another part of his appeal afaik is that he's a not-Santorum.

I don't agree with that. They see Gingrich as a straight-talking firebrand, and that's a lot of his appeal, but mostly because he's a straight-talking firebrand Conservative. His supporters don't see Romney as a Conservative, but they see Santorum as one. Romney's appeal is his business credentials (which neither Gingrich or Santorum have), his electability (which doesn't enter into it if you're a Gingrich supporter tbh), and *maybe* his status as a "Washington Outsider" by the fact that he's never actually held a position in DC, which obviously won't play into it with Gingrich or Santorum.

Really, Gingrich's only appeal is in the South, and they'll go with Santorum before they go out with a "Massachusetts Moderate".

One percent difference between out-and-out embarrassment and still-inevitable-by-default. Good job, Mitt.

a) Eh, he could have dropped a load more points and still done well, he got 35/56 of the delegates

on the other hand

b) Also his list of states that he's got a majority of the vote in has gone up from one (Nevada's 50.1% lol) to four. Though one of them is Virginia, where his only opponent, Ron Fucking Paul, took 40% of the vote (and 6.5% of the delegates)

as if there was any doubt, romney is the democrat of the republican primaries

http://i40.tinypic.com/350kqwp.png

he could have dropped a load more points and still done well, he got 35/56 of the delegates

With much heartache, I've accepted that this is no longer about who's going to be the nominee. By embarrassment, I just meant whatever lingering damage Romney drags into the general (or if he does--it may all be forgotten come September and October if gas prices or something else is the story).

I think there is prob an important distinction in those maps in that obama's support was more cleveland-the-city and romney's is more cleveland-suburbs

I just meant whatever lingering damage Romney drags into the general

Which should be plenty at this point. I mean, he's been at this for years and nearly everything that's known about him has been repeated and beaten into the ground.

it is an interesting pattern tho -- it doesn't really portend much in the way of who will win what states, but it does point to turnout issues, maybe. the pattern of which state contests he is winning is another version of it i think

if romney is best at firing up republicans in states that he is inevitably going to lose, and is deficient in states they will win, that's a problem (is it? my coffee is still kicking in)

though that pattern kind of held for obama vs clinton (he ran away with dems in red states -- though there's a racial pattern there that doesn't hold among republicans) and he won the general ok

yeah it def points to rural turnout issues. much of which won't matter (romney doesn't need strong turnout in the deep south to win it) but ohio's a good example of a place that will

I think there is prob an important distinction in those maps in that obama's support was more cleveland-the-city and romney's is more cleveland-suburbs

Precinct-level voting data from the Cuyahoga County BOE shows that Obama won something like 1,200 out of 1,400+ voting precincts JFTR. About 430 of those are City of Cleveland.

well the margin is more important than who won

It was just about 70-30 Obama.

Continued joy at RedState. Well, *I'm* enjoying it, at least.

looking for a map w/ the margins, here's 2004 tho:

http://copperas.com/cuyahoga/ss_cuykb.jpg

here we go:

http://blog.cleveland.com/datacentral/2008/11/large_cuyahoga-obama-mccain-results.jpg

Yeah, that blue includes a lot of 'burbs (including mine!), and the deepest red ones are, not to put too fine a point on it, really white and really racist.

well not all suburbs were created equal, just trying to emphasize the difference between obama's urban-area support and romney's (more 'urban' in uh every sense of the term...)

Those comments at Red State are full of people going through the stages of grief (most of them are in the acceptance stage at this point).

With much heartache, I've accepted...

We're working through this together.

There's people comparing him to Putin!

Those comments at Red State are full of people going through the stages of grief (most of them are in the acceptance stage at this point).

And a few still stuck at denial.

The Real Question
Wednesday, March 7th at 7:32AM EST (link)
Would a nominee produced at the end of August still allow for sufficient time for an effective presidential campaign? I believe so.