2012 republican presidential nominee III: can romney get santorum out of his hair?

haha want to start a wikipedia based political consulting firm w/ me jho

― iatee, Monday, February 13, 2012 6:47 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

unbeatable strat

Instead of "America the Beautiful," he might start singing that Nicki Minaj song from last night. People might suddenly take a liking to him then.

Jho? Am I missing a pre-username change reference again?

I think in the pre-dubya republican party romney would have been a pretty strong national candidate if he sold himself the way he did in MA.

at this point he is john kerry if democrats actually hated john kerry (they didn't, he was boring but fine) and also if instead of 'flip-flopping' on the iraq war, literally every single thing he said was something you could produce a youtube video w/ him saying the opposite. also he was part of a cult. gop had to close their eyes and go w/ it, but they're not, and they're forcing him so far to the right that he has no breathing room in the general. at least some people like santorum and he's consistent. being an actual crazy conservative is gonna get you further than being a pretend crazy conservative.

Gingrich is staying in, but if he hypothetically dropped out tomorrow, one thing I'm not convinced of is that most of his support would go to Santorum. Logically it should, but (leaving aside Paul for a minute) that would really clarify the options for Republicans: that's it--we either send this guy or this guy into the general. I could actually see Santorum falling back if that were to happen.

i think santorum would prob get 'more than half' of gingriches support, based on nothing

super lolzy that GOP nom is coming down to a Papist and a Mormon

I think it prob depends on the state. Gingrich drops out and Santorum easily gets most of his support in the south, at the very least.

He should, but it does sometimes feel like the insanity of the past few months has simply been the Republican electorate (rather creatively and entertainingly) doing everything it can to postpone that dreaded moment when it has no choice but to settle on Romney. Getting down to two people (plus Paul) might speed that along.

The south, yes.

I can't believe Mitt's down in Michigan. I could have been persuaded that he would've taken it in the general election.

I find descriptions of electorates like that ("the Republican electorate doing everything it can to postpone that dreaded moment") to be really indicative of a misunderstanding of how ppl vote. the Republicans didn't get together and decide who was going to vote for Santorum and who would vote for Romney and who would vote for Gingrich to maximize lulz and/or extend the process. no one is thinking, "well, i'll vote for X to keep this thing going longer." the voters are still individuals making individual decisions and there's no way that kind of broad group thinking could possibly occur.

i mean, ymmv imho etc, but those sorts of descriptions always infuriate me bc of how detached from anything approximating reality they are

there is evidence that that kind of broad group thinking does occur, i mean that not an accurate description of what it is, but you know

there is a much more definite electorate in primaries - and especially caucuses - than there is in the general!

i'd like to see that evidence xp

Shakey, i'm not saying that there isn't a group of people who often share similar ideas and beliefs. i just don't understand how you could possibly coordinate a large group of people to divide their votes between 3 different candidates for the purpose prolonging the primary.

there is something of a middleground. like, I'm not usually a fan of 'the gop electorate went w/ this guy, w/ the goal of this result' type narratives, but otoh if there were zero groupthink then things like primary momentum wouldn't exist.

well sure - but I don't think that descriptor was meant to be taken literally.

xp

how was it meant to be taken? metaphorically?

it describes what's happening fairly accurately, but not the electorate's actual motivations

primary momentum doesn't exist, except as a narrative construction

primary momentum definitely exists, it's just not showing up much in this election

it's pretty clear that much of the GOP electorate's motivation is "ANYONE BUT ROMNEY" and they are continuing to act on this motivation. However, all of their fretting is for naught, since the system they're operating in is so rigged Romney is bound to win.

xp

Well, when you have Romney's numbers staying fairly steady and the other 60/70% being thrown around between candidates, the natural assumption is that the people who were intending to support Romney in September are the same people who were going support him in January, that there is a significant 'floating' vote which is indeed working it's way down a list with Romney at the very bottom. No-one is seriously claiming that all of the electorate has been varying its vote, if that's what you mean.

several xps

I am surprised that Romney's polling poorly in Michigan, given its long tradition of selling fudge.

I wonder how much airtime his 'hey we should let detroit go bankrupt' thing is getting? also wtf was he thinking, seriously

he is not good at this!

I meant something more on an individual level, not anything coordinated, which is obviously not the case. Similar to the way you look for a thousand diversions before getting down to something unpleasant you have to do (for me, marking). When there are five or seven bright shiny toys around as diversion--Newt, Cain, Perry, etc.--you can fool around and postpone the inevitable. But if it comes down to two people, and one of them's going to be your nominee, you may finally have to do what you don't want to do.

'I'm gonna prepare for the next election w/ an article that nobody will read or care about but can easily be used against me'

like it's good someone held him back from sending his editorial 'new hampshire: filled with shitheads'

tbf a goodly # of Michiganders would like to see Detroit go bankrupt, namely those in the west & north

the funny thing abt that let detroit fail op ed is before obama announced his plan romney had advocated for a nearly identical approach, but once the president moved he realized this would be the perfect opportunity to do a 180 and pander yet again to the base, lol well played mitt

"Creatively and entertainingly" needs clarification--what I meant was, this whole thing couldn't have made for a better story if it had been scripted. Sorry for sounding like John Kerry, but I actually intended to say the opposite of what it might have seemed I meant.

Another way to say it: I think Santorum and Romney and no one else (except Paul) will scare some people straight who may be supporting Santorum at the moment into (reluctantly, probably) crossing over to Romney.

I'd forgotten about Romney's Detroit comment. He'll have to severely finesse his way around that.

But if it comes down to two people, and one of them's going to be your nominee, you may finally have to do what you don't want to do.

well, yeah, but that doesn't mean they have to do it soon. obama/clinton came down to two people too, there was no 'finally have to make a decision', it was a long, dragged out process that genuinely did depend on a lot of individual decisions / individual states. the difference was, both were very popular in the party, both were popular nationally.

if it were so simple as 'we're gonna go w/ the most electable candidate', mccain woulda got the nom in 2000. if you are a crazy enough human being to think that santorum is someone who should have control over nuclear weapons, then traditional rationality doesn't necessarily apply to you. plus you think everyone in america secretly agrees w/ you.

what I meant was, this whole thing couldn't have made for a better story if it had been scripted.

I THINK U FORGOT SOMEONE

http://i.imgur.com/aqPK3.jpg

makes the whole thing kinda bittersweet

I'm always looking for analogies, but I think I'm going to try to make Obama-Clinton off-limits when analyzing this circus. (Obama-Clinton occasionally seemed like a circus at the time, but in the context of this its stature has grown tenfold.)

(Sigh) Yes, one character was killed off far too early.

her spirit haunts the republican party

if sarah emerges at the convention and publicly tries to sway delegates to throw their support to her that will be maybe the most beautiful thing ever

Romney's damaged, probably beyond repair.

whistling past the graveyard

what on earth are you doing in a graveyard

hey if you guys read Slate, or P4reene today, you'd know Santorum has three delegates.

why keep the rosary beads from clicking?

its cool most of the delegates havent been awarded yet

if sarah emerges at the convention and publicly tries to sway delegates to throw their support to her that will be maybe the most beautiful thing ever

I completely understand that this is a fantasyland dream that won't be happening. But Palin's words the other day suggest that she may in fact be living that dream:

“People who start screaming that a brokered convention is the worst thing that could happen to the G.O.P., they have an agenda,” Ms. Palin said in an interview. “They have their own personal or political reasons, their own candidate who they would like to see protected away from a brokered convention.”

She added: “That’s part of competition, part of the process and it may happen.”

*prays furiously*

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/down-in-michigan-polls-romney-needs-to-find-his-base/

I found Romney's base--they're congregating in Michigan as we speak.

http://brightgreenscotland.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/robot_army.jpg

And in Arizona. And all across the land.

http://londonrelocationservices.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/agent-smith.jpg

this thread is bringing lols today, thanks 2 you all

More or less the point I was trying to make yesterday (from TNR):

The best indication that the Santorum surge could turn out to be fleeting came on the same day as his startling national survey results, when the annual presidential straw poll at the American Conservative Union’s CPAC conference was won by none other than Mitt Romney. Even as the CPAC audience cheered Santorum’s culture-war zingers, the secret-ballot went to Mitt. Conservatives may talk like they want another Barry Goldwater, but in their hearts, they’d settle for another Richard Nixon.

I'd amend "hearts" to "brains."