Netflix - Not bad! Qwikster - uh, never mind...

Though to be fair, the more distribution heads to a streaming model and away from physical discs, the more films will be available for streaming. At least in theory. If no one rents, then studios aren't going to let thousands of films go unseen. Well, OK, they probably won't.

I still think u should buy Netflix stock. I also don't think u should buy stocks for the short term.

If Netflix can maintain market share and pricing power as the streaming video pie grows, then I think it's a buy - but that's a big 'if'. It's hard to think that streaming is going to be anything other than a low-margin business. It seems like the only necessary participants are the content producers and the content consumers, and anyone in between is going to get squeezed.

I heard a piece on the radio yesterday that explained Netflix's erratic behavior later as a desperate, pre-emptive attempt to avoid being the next AOL - that is, opening the door for others to take over. But Netflix may be predestined to do just that, because surely what it does is neither proprietary nor unique. It's value is its name, but its behavior is, ironically, devaluing that name.

its a little worrying that they're losing so much market capitalization since their big advantage right now is that they have money to spend on deals--amazon doesnt, really, and i dont think hulu has the desire much less the cash--hastings says his strategy is to lock up content in exclusive deals at high prices, which is smart business but not great for the consumer, unfortunately.

i mean if yr buying stocks on a month-to-month basis you probably shouldnt buy netflix, as the last year has shown, but im willing to bet on it in the long-term. not 100 percent confident but then again im not actually spending the money on the stock

not 100 percent confident

You don't say.

im telling you guys, buy buy buy, i wish i had money

― max, Wednesday, September 21, 2011 3:07 AM (5 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

yeah if it werent for my total opposition to individuals owning individual stocks, still tempting

― ice cr?m, Wednesday, 21 September 2011 12:55 (1 month ago) Permalink

Well I hope you guys didn't.

Problem is it still is/was priced based on expectations of high growth. Yesterday we found out they actually are losing subscribers, which is way worse than just not growing really fast, obv. I guess the case for buying would be that they're going to grow internationally, but it's kind of hard to guess whether Netflix will take in, say, Latin America in 2012 the way it did in the US years earlier.

― pass the duchy pon the left hand side (musical duke) (Hurting 2), Wednesday, October 26, 2011 6:59 AM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

lol hurting im sympathetic to yr new explaining things persona but one bad quarter does not a pattern make

Dude's ahead of the curve, but speaking to someone associated with Goldman Sachs yesterday, Netflix is approaching pariah status to the extent that there are predictions that Blockbuster will ultimately take it out on the streaming front. Which would be very ironic.

― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, October 26, 2011 7:40 AM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

blockbuster tried to take netflix dvd by mail business as did walmart and it didnt work so good, if someone is going to supplant nexflix its gonna be a technology company who knows wtf theyre doing

Yeah, but tbf, both of those guys only tried the mail part of the equation, not the streaming. But your point still stands.

w/the streaming its more important that they not be the companies that they actually are

Yeah, I'm talking about streaming. Blockbuster rules home video, Netflix supplants Blockbuster, Netflix switches to streaming, Blockbuster comes back from the dead and supplants Netflix. This all presupposes physical media is dead, which is pretty much is.

what if physical media comes back from the dead and supplants THEM

point is blockbuster is not going to turn into some other company thats makes an amazing streaming product overnight, might as well say mcdonalds is going to be the next netflix, there just no correlation between blockbusters old retail rental business and streaming video

i could see amazon gaining some traction, def apple if they went w/subscriptions, idk who else some startup prob

...except they have relationships with every content provider out there pretty much?

the problem in getting these businesses off the ground isnt the tech, its trying to twist studios' arms into letting u actually do it

Night of the Living Physical Media 2 - Return of the Content

maybe if all the movie/tv studios formed a consortium and refused to licence their shit to anyone else, seems p unlikely theyd be able to play well together and make a product that anyone actually wants to use tho

blockbuster/dish will probably make a run at netflix but they have a lot of shit to work out first

the problem with blockbuster/dish is that theyre THE ENEMY, the last thing we want is cable companies involved in this

But see, that's sort of it: streaming is something that doesn't take much know-how, right? What's going to win is not the technology but the exclusivity and muscle, which Netflix is currently losing. It could turn it around, sure, but I wouldn't bet on it against someone like Amazon or Apple or Google or whomever.

xpost

the problem in getting these businesses off the ground isnt the tech, its trying to twist studios' arms into letting u actually do it

― the jazz zinger (s1ocki), Wednesday, October 26, 2011 11:52 AM (46 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

naw its both, and once again blockbusters 'relationships with every content provider out there' consists of like buying dvds from them which is not at all like what has to happen w/streaming

i love when we all sit around pretending we know jackshit about the business world and stocks and stuff

the problem in getting these businesses off the ground isnt the tech, its trying to twist studios' arms into letting u actually do it

― the jazz zinger (s1ocki), Wednesday, October 26, 2011 11:52 AM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

eh, dont underestimate the value of UI and consistency, one reason why netflix is still well-positioned is that theyve got the best website in the business

Wouldn't we all subscribe to streaming HBO, if they never end up licensing their content (Larry Sanders excepted)?

u find? the interface on stuff like ps3 sucks, and i dont find the website that great either. the recommendation algorithms are shit hot tho

how is netflix losing the exclusivity and muscle? i mean starz and criterion arent on netflix anymore but... who* gives a shit about starz and criterion

*real people, not ppl who watch black orpheus for pleasure

the redesign of the website isnt amazing--but their recommendation algorithm is fantastic--and its still much much better than amazon or hulu

i guess they need to fix the ps3 thing but i never watch it on ps3 so

starz has a lot of studio stuff, pixar etc

yeah oh well. theyre getting dreamworks!

http://pardon-my-french.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/pixar-dreamworks-tm.gif

By muscle I mean its pull/esteem/power. It's a matter of perception, and the appearance of weakness - say, massive overnight stock drops after months of bad business decisions - does not put Netflix in a position of power when it comes to negotiating content. Though yeah, it does have a big head start on the competition.

But see, that's sort of it: streaming is something that doesn't take much know-how, right?

― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, October 26, 2011 11:53 AM (43 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

no not at all, god, every popular internet thing in the result of an incredible amount of know how, institutional agility, area business expertise - its no coincidence that like every really big internet thing google amazon twitter netflix etc were created by technology companies not like disney or time warner or w/e

i guess they need to fix the ps3 thing but i never watch it on ps3 so

They don't need to fix the PS3 interface since it loads everything you set up via the website; tbh, the PS3 is kind of a terrible unit to use for browsing anything so they're sort of handcuffed by the platform.

i still dont think anyone really has figured out how to present a gigantic library of content for browsing on any digital platform

Also yeah, reliably streaming something like mp3s, which are bandwidth-light, is a different ball of wax from reliably streaming high-definition movies, particularly on a heterogeneous network owned by several competing business entities.

By muscle I mean its pull/esteem/power. It's a matter of perception, and the appearance of weakness - say, massive overnight stock drops after months of bad business decisions - does not put Netflix in a position of power when it comes to negotiating content. Though yeah, it does have a big head start on the competition.

― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, October 26, 2011 11:58 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

yeah this is fair--this is what i worry about most

besides world hunger, war, disease, etc.

worst case scenario, we're gonna end up with like 5 services with different shit on it with no way to figure out what's gonna be on what (cuz no one goes 'i wanna watch a warner brothers movie tonight!')

then again, paying $50 a month for unlimited movies/tv is actually NOT A BAD DEAL

i still dont think anyone really has figured out how to present a gigantic library of content for browsing on any digital platform

Sure, but the website is always going to be a step ahead due to the expected keyboard input interface; it's always going to be less cumbersome to type than to point-and-click letters.

Now, if Netflix on PS3 integrated with, say, Dragon Naturally Speaking and developed a reliable voice interface, they could really go somewhere.

well the other part of the "worst case scenario" is if cable companies get involved and start throttling bandwidth, charging an extra $15/mo for the "streaming videos package" etc., and that the 5 services have horrible shitty UIs

Blockbuster already has a streaming service. Was this mentioned upthread? The problem, as ever, is that studios want more money per view.

Sure, but the website is always going to be a step ahead due to the expected keyboard input interface; it's always going to be less cumbersome to type than to point-and-click letters.

Now, if Netflix on PS3 integrated with, say, Dragon Naturally Speaking and developed a reliable voice interface, they could really go somewhere.

― he carried yellow flowers (DJP), Wednesday, October 26, 2011 12:03 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

appletv netflix is actually a better interface for a bunch of reasons - one of which is you can use your iphone as a controller/keyboard.

another is that it's just better laid-out, with more stuff on the screen. you can see a whole big grid of your queue instead of like 5 at a time. seems more designed for the "HD" in HDTVs

One thing that the Netflix web interface lacks is any kind of editorial/curatorial voice. Contrasting with eMusic, another service I subscribe to, the difference is striking. eMusic has a staff of editors who write regular features providing introductions to bands/periods/labels/genres, compile lists of picks, recommend new releases, etc. While I don't always agree with them, it's interesting to read the perspective of an informed curator, and it helps you to learn about stuff you might be interested in. I personally find this a lot more interesting and helpful than some technological black-box recommendation system that gives me a random list with no hint of any connecting logic or theme.

ya that would require hiring like a billion people tho

(not that i would complain if all of the sudden there were a billion new jobs for film writers)

I'm curious how they got the numbers for this "$1 billion contract with the CW" deal

I love the current cable gambit of "watch movies currently in the theater in the comfort of your living room! (ps thx for the $60 lol)"; it seems like such a blatant preying on our current short-attention-span culture that I can really only just sit back and applaud.

appletv netflix is actually a better interface for a bunch of reasons - one of which is you can use your iphone as a controller/keyboard.

Yeah, layout concerns aside I can't help but think this is a HUGE improvement over the PS3, which basically works like searching for stuff in Comcast's OnDemand menu without the detailed parametric hierarchical menus.

One thing that the Netflix web interface lacks is any kind of editorial/curatorial voice

This is a bonus IMO.

I love the current cable gambit of "watch movies currently in the theater in the comfort of your living room! (ps thx for the $60 lol)"; it seems like such a blatant preying on our current short-attention-span culture that I can really only just sit back and applaud.

they ended up not doing this iirc