hurricane coming...

cool. i think i'm gonna take my son to the park, sounds like that won't be an option this weekend.

James Barron, NYT:

With Hurricane Irene pushing relentlessly toward the East Coast, officials made plans to shut down New York City’s sprawling subway and bus system beginning at noon on Saturday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said.

The commuter rail lines that serve Long Island, Westchester County and Connecticut will also be shut down.

Officials decided to go ahead with the transit shutdown, which they had first mentioned on Thursday as a possibility at a City Hall briefing on Thursday, as the city was evacuating hospitals and nursing homes in low-lying areas. Sstate officials continued arrangements for coordinating emergency services and restoring electricity if the storm does the kind of damage many fear.

Some Atlantic City casinos made plans to stop rolling the dice and turn off the slot machines by 8 p.m. Friday. The naval submarine base in Groton, Conn., sent four submarines out to ride out the storm deep in the Atlantic Ocean. And Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said that all lanes of 28-mile stretch of a major highway in Ocean County would go in only one direction — westward — beginning at 6 p.m. on Friday to help speed the trip away from Long Beach Island.Those preparations came as states of emergency remained in effect in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Homeowners scrambled to cover windows with plywood and boaters struggled to get their vessels away from docks. In New York, apartment dwellers with balconies and terraces hauled in patio furniture and potted plants, and stores ran short on staples like batteries, flashlights and bottled water. In shore towns on Long Island and in New Jersey, vacationers waited in lines at gasoline stations and watched as emergency crews piled sandbags on low-lying beach roads.

"Those preparations came as states of emergency remained in effect in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Homeowners scrambled to cover windows with plywood and boaters struggled to get their vessels away from docks. In New York, apartment dwellers with balconies and terraces hauled in patio furniture and potted plants, and stores ran short on staples like batteries, flashlights and bottled water. In shore towns on Long Island and in New Jersey, vacationers shat on passers by below and waited in lines at gasoline stations and watched as emergency crews piled sandbags on low-lying beach roads."

Should we create an Irene thread?

Sully's blog posted this letter from a Floridian:

If you actually get hit by a hurricane you are somewhat screwed. Construction of everything in Florida takes into account hurricanes. We have shutters or shatterproof windows. We don't have water towers on top of buildings or any type of siding in our houses, even street signs and lamps are designed for storms. Our drainage systems are designed to reasonably handle several inches of rain per hour. For geographic reasons, we have one tunnel in the entire state and nothing subterranean like a subway or basement. Heck, people in the Florida Keys aren't allowed to have a first floor at ground level. A selling point for a house or condo in Florida is that it is on the same power grid as a hospital or jail. There are a lot of generators, and if you don't have one, a person with a generator quickly gets reminded of all the nice things you did for them.

The Northeast has little or none of this.

Having been through more than half a dozen hurricanes, there are a couple necessities that don't make the list too often. A pack of cards, a lot of wine and a bunch of books are as much necessities as batteries and flashlights.

so malloy is shutting down CT for the weekend it appears - hopefully this means no class monday

Good luck NYC. I'm just hoping this is another case of the more prepared, the less intense the storm actually is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmtuRRhtGQw

New thread Hurricane Irene

eesh at ominous mention of precarious water towers

this is a long thread but has anybody explained how quickly hurricanes lose strength when they make landfall? if you're in NYC, you have absolutely nothing to worry about except maybe some bands of heavy rain. anybody north of Virginia can relax. i've been through several hurricanes. this one is relatively weak and landfall predicted so far away from NYC that all the fuss NYC folks are making really is some 'sky is falling' bullshit. chill out. you're going to be pissed when nothing happens but you can't go anywhere because your mayor is a dipshit.

― brotherlovesdub, Friday, August 26, 2011 12:15 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark

shhhh TEN BILLION DOLLARS

The Floridian who wrote that letter is aware that the northeastern US gets storms severe enough to be named after the region, right?

Yeah, no. A bunch of those points abt how Florida is different are not applicable to up here, plus some are just wrong: LOTS of people have generators in the NE, dude. Because of this little thing, called winter.

crazy little thing called winter

Yeah, I'm not sure what part of the NE s/he thinks is so magically storm free. Nor'easters are even shaped like hurricanes.

fatt bottomed storms make the rockin worl dgo round

overrated hurricane preparations i have taken

my prep includes going to the clam shack tonight, because if the storm takes me out, i want to go happy and with heaps of fried seafood inside me

"My Big Day with INtestine full of Crustaceans "

If the power goes out, it's imperative to eat the seafood first!

you'll soon be food for the sea after all

http://topiat.com/system/images/193/originals/CircleOfLife2-WP.jpg

i think that Fat Governor is trying to position himself for a Rudy on 9/11 role.

i wonder how many terms he can get himself as fake president?

Lepage?

bb just ordered evacuation of all 1st floor residents?

Erika looking like a tame storm that might even get pwned by wind shear over the next 12-24.

hasn't stopped the locals from panicking and overreacting, but that's part for the course here in Cent FL.

any other Floridians 'stocking up'?

Nope. I'm hoping for a day off.

hah yeah. sadly I work from home these days so the power's gonna have to go off for that to happen for me.

it's dissipated

this sounds bad

yep

Wind map:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-111.07,17.94,3000

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_nears_mexico_at_record_strength.html

Over the past 30 hours, Patricia’s central pressure has fallen by 114 millibars, from 994 to 880—possibly beating the world’s record for fastest intensification. Since lower air pressure drives faster wind speeds, such a fast intensification has greatly increased the storm’s strength—Patricia strengthened by 100 mph in 24 hours, the most in the era of complete data coverage by weather satellites. This historic data was collected by a hurricane hunter aircraft flying through the center of Patricia, which departed the storm as it was still strengthening. Shortly after the research plane left, satellite estimates of Patricia’s intensity broke the Dvorak scale, peaking at 8.3 on the 8.0 scale.

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#PATRICIA

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

^omg at this

Its contours remind me so much of Hurricane Andrew. Hoping for the best. Ugh.

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

FWIW, I think the theoretical maximum velocity is from this study. Maximum azimuthal velocity is ~100 m/s = 223 mph (Fig 7).

This is way higher than empirical maximum velocity, which for the Western Pacific is a function of sea temperature, and peaks around 80 m/s = 179 mph (Fig 1).

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

yeah this is insane.

horrifying

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/CSAQYdYUYAAPe66.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpg

Latest forecast is even worse!
http://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/images_blogs/wiredscience/2013/03/emperor-penguin-ir-image-solo.jpg

how populous is the area where landfall is expected? what is the state of evacuation procedures?

(too lazy to google)

Guadalajara, jeezus

Yeah, a hunk of Jalisco, right? Puerto Vallarta, etc? The place my friends stayed at last year is on lockdown.

The radio said guests in the line of landfall were told to pack bags and blankets and be ready to be bussed 6 miles further inland. But procedure sounded unclear on the radio.

https://twitter.com/Enrique_Acevedo/status/657720628452048896/video/1

Scott Kelly took this photo from the ISS

http://i.imgur.com/6fPFbZb.jpg

wtf

Weakened quickly

The good thing about these intense storms is that they require intense energy to sustain themselves.