a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

NPR story excerpt:

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/26/139952344/western-sanctions-may-put-slow-squeeze-on-syria

On a recent government-sponsored tour, called "Syria Is Fine," reporters were shown bustling markets in Damascus where Syrians bought clothes, electronics and basic necessities.

The tour was arranged shortly after the United States formally called for Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down and banned the import of oil and gas.

American officials acknowledge this will have little impact unless Europe joins in as well. Europe buys nearly all of Syria's crude exports, and those sales account for about one-third of Syria's economy.

Looking To Iran

In an interview on Syrian state TV, Assad called these moves by the West "meaningless."

In the mind of a lot of Syrians, oil is linked to the army. ... So when you say, OK, we're going to stop the flow of crude, you're basically saying to the Syrian people at the same time, we're going to stop the flow of blood.

- Asaad al-Achi, Qatar-based Syrian activist
"We have alternatives," Assad said. "We'd already decided to start looking to the east, and we will continue to look east."

Analysts say that means if Syria can't sell its oil to Europe, it will sell it to India and China. But Assad wasn't just talking about India and China. He also was referring to his strongest ally, Iran.

Regional news outlets have reported that Iran recently moved billions of U.S. dollars to Syria to help keep the Syrian currency stable. Syrian economic officials denied the reports.

Yemen is still such a mess with President Saleh still in Saudia Arabia recovering from injuries and refusing to give up his office, loyalists supporting him, others opposed, and fundamentalist extremists taking over the southern portion (and ocassionally being hit by US drones)

"Syria Is Fine"

the thing that's probably hard to keep focus on, in this year of way-too-much-news, is that the uprising in egypt was a genuine geopolitical gamechanger, with significant consequences playing out for a long time to come (good and bad): it's producing a lot of anxiety, falling out, confusion, cognitive dissonence and switchback silliness everywhere, from the various embattled autocracies and not-really-democracies in the middle east up the courtier factions in Washington, across to their media mouthpieces and professional kneejerk foes, and down away into every kind of dissident local org trying to escape hegemony of same

"Nothing to See Here Folks"

dissonAnce: haha i wrote "cognitive dissidence" first and nearly didn't spot it -- seems like a useful term for something

I am being amused here by the dissatisfaction regarding events in Libya coming from a political movement here in Ireland that has in the past benefited from Colonel Gadafi's largesse.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2011/08/26/01003-20110826ARTFIG00322-ali-ferzat-le-caricaturiste-syrien-aux-mains-brisees.php

Internationally famous caricaturist, Ali Ferzat, found after thugs broke his hands and beat the stuffing out of him.

that's almost poetical in its brutishness. if someone is drawing caricatures, you don't threaten or try to silence him, obviously you just break his hands.

The NY Times story upthread about it notes: The attack came days after the artist, Ali Farzat, published a cartoon showing President Bashar al-Assad hitching a ride out of town with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, who was toppled from power this week.

Oops, curmudgeon. I didn't see that. :(

2 excerpts from different stories on the roles of outsiders in Syria:

Youth Coalition of the Syrian Revolution leader Wahid Saqr on Friday accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah group of having deployed armed militias in Syria, assisting the regime there in the brutal crackdown of pro-democracy protesters

and

Gulfsands Petroleum PLC said Friday it had a successful drilling result in Syria and vowed to continue operations there, despite pressure from the European Union of a possible embargo, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

The London-traded oil and gas company did not mention sanctions in its operations update released Friday.

Syrian issues affect Jordan (refugees heading there and Jordan's reliance on food from Syria)

Jordan imports most of its foodstuffs from Syria or through Syrian territories. So far, the trade line has not been disrupted, but concern is growing that retaliation could lead Syria to seal its borders with Jordan, a blow that the kingdom would find difficult to handle, considering its limited resources and options in the region, say analysts.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=235842

pro-assad syrians just hijacked the columbia university fb wall

http://www.facebook.com/ColumbiaNYC

what the fuck

bizarre. why columbia?

no idea

Esraa Mostafa
♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥ BASHAR AL ASSAD ♥
about an hour ago

almost d/n worthy

Other Syria news:

Royal Dutch Shell PLC will not stop producing oil in Syria unless it is directed to do so by the European Union, media in the Netherlands report

from W. Post

and from Dow Jones wire via WSJ:

Under EU rules, for sanctions to be adopted there first needs to be a so-called silence procedure during which all 27 member states are given a final chance to raise an objection.

One diplomat said an objection was raised Tuesday by Italy to when an EU embargo on Syrian oil exports was due to start. Another diplomat said there may also have been an objection to one of the Syrian companies listed among those to be targeted by the sanctions.

H____ S____
Hello, I'm a Syrian citizen, I'd like to apologize to your university for the inappropriate posts on your wall, but there is a facebook page called "The electronic army of syria"encouraging these kinds of spams, to support the syrian president, a killer who is responsible for alot of crimes against humans, from the button of our hearts, we are deeply sorry for this.

something kinda poetic abt 'from the button of our hearts'

yes

excerpt from NY Times editorial on Syria:

Turkey, which does $2.5 billion in annual trade with Syria, needs to take an unambiguous stand by imposing economic sanctions.

The Obama administration has frozen all Syrian government assets here and banned American citizens and corporations from doing any business with Damascus. But Washington has limited leverage. The European Union, a major importer of Syrian oil, could have a far greater impact. The Europeans announced last week that they would impose new sanctions, but members are still squabbling over details. An oil embargo is essential, but sanctions should also be imposed on Syrian banks and energy and telecommunications companies.

And Mr. Assad still has a few, far too powerful, protectors. Russia and China, along with India, Brazil and South Africa, are blocking a United Nations Security Council resolution that could impose broad international sanctions on Damascus. Their complicity is shameful.

Amnesty International has a lobbying campaign aimed at the latter three countries' representatives:

http://action.amnesty.org.uk/ea-action/action?ea.client.id=1194&ea.campaign.id=11245

this is from the fox news website re the EU's just imposed embargo on Syrian oil:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/01/peaceful-way-to-bring-down-syrias-assad/

The Wall Street Journal reports that loopholes in the legislation will allow European energy companies to continue oil operations in Syria. In short, the EU will embargo direct imports of Syrian crude oil, but permit European energy companies to continue producing and developing Syrian gas and oil.

If the EU were to impose real energy sanctions on Assad, their impact on his political future could be tremendous.

The Financial Times estimates that Europe consumes almost 95 percent of Syria’s oil exports, and oil revenues amount to roughly 25 percent of Syria’s government funds.

Shell’s 32 percent stake in Syria’s Al-Furat oil consortium gives it especially great influence on Assad. If Shell were to sever its contracts, and Total were to do the same -- ceasing exploration in the oil fields of the Euphrates and Syria’s central region -- Syria would be deprived of substantial western investment capital.

The Obama administration is uniquely positioned to induce Shell and Total to leave Syria by threatening to deny them access to U.S. markets. The U.S. Treasury department set an important precedent in this regard in 2010, prompting Shell and Total to beat a hasty retreat from their oil operations in Iran.

For energy sanctions to be most effective in pressuring Assad, the U.S. and its European allies will want to persuade Chinese, Russian, and Indian energy companies to suspend their operations in Syria, at least until the violence comes to an end -- an implicit, if not explicit, commitment to a post-Assad government.

EU bans oil imports from Syria

whoops sorry

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/09/10/world/10egypt2/10egypt2-articleLarge.jpg
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/world/middleeast/11egypt.html?_r=1&hp

no talk about the embassy?

What a complicated sad mess.

legions of secular-minded soccer fans were at the forefront of the embassy attacks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/world/middleeast/11israel.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Yemen is a mess.

Fierce fighting spilled into a second day on Monday as government security forces battled soldiers who have joined anti-government protesters.

from the huffington post:

BEIRUT — A young woman was found beheaded and mutilated, apparently by Syrian security agents, underscoring what witnesses and the U.N. human rights office said Friday was a fearsome new tactic of retaliating against protesters' families to snuff out the 6-month-old uprising against the regime of President Bashar Assad.

The slain 18-year-old, Zainab al-Hosni, is believed to be the first woman to die in Syrian custody since the uprising began in mid-March. Amnesty International said Friday she had reportedly been detained by security agents to pressure her activist brother to turn himself in.

Disgusting

"Prominent human rights defenders, inside and outside the country, are reported to have been targeted," U.N. human rights office spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani said in Geneva. "We are also concerned by reports of the targeting and attacking of families and sympathizers of the protesters by security forces."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/23/syria-zainab-al-hosni-died-custody_n_977550.html

Thirty-six people in Bahrain have been given prison sentences of between 15 and 25 years in three separate cases for taking part in anti-government protests earlier this year.

Matar Matar, a former opposition legislator with the Shia party al-Wefaq, told Al Jazeera that 14 of the convicted had been sentenced to life, meaning they face 25 years in prison.

Prosecutor Yusof Fleifel, quoted by BNA state news agency, said the 14 were convicted of beating to death a Pakistani "with a terrorist aim", as well as "assembling for riots".

Apparently there is still no arms embargo re Bahrain and I think the 6th US Fleet is still based there.

Will Britain, France, the US and the rest of the world change policies and isolate Bahrain's rulers? There seems to be little pressure from expats and others, especially with the country being so small

she had reportedly been detained by security agents to pressure her activist brother to turn himself in.

This might backfire

re. Bahrain - it was always said that the basing of a US fleet there was a major factor in the low key response by Western powers to the crackdown there.

http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-denies-any-plan-to-move-fifth-fleet-from-bahrain

July 22nd article

A report in The Times newspaper in London yesterday said the US administration was mulling relocating the fleet in part because its continued presence in Manama could be seen as condoning the government crackdown on opposition parties.

The move, according to an unnamed source quoted by the newspaper, was first raised in February, when demonstrations gathered force. The idea has gained ground in recent months. The US military is reported to be against a move allegedly promoted by the US State Department.

However, a State Department official yesterday also denied the report, saying the US has "no intention to relocate the Fifth Fleet".

Wonder how much this will help re Syria

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/syrian-dissidents-form-council-hope-to-win-greater-international-support/2011/10/02/gIQAMsWRGL_story.html

Syrian dissidents meeting in Istanbul on Sunday announced the formation of a council uniting most of their country’s fractious opposition groups, a step that activists hailed as a potential breakthrough in the months-long standoff between a largely leaderless protest movement and the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

I heard on the radio this morning that Russia and China vetoed a resolution at the UN condemning Syria.

Been trying to understand the positions of India, Brazil, and So. Africa, who abstained from the vote. Turkey has said they will impose further sanctions of their own (Syria is significant trade partner) and Erdogan was in So. Africa talking about it this past week. (He wasn't there just for that reason, but nevertheless...)

Also, Susan Rice walked out while Syrian ambassador was talking about U.S. colonial interest in Syria or something.

Aren't India, Brazil, and So. Africa simply interested in helping their growing economies grow more, and thus the chance to keep selling products to Syria outweighs for them the bloody dictatorial abuses (Plus there seems to be a certain desire to thumb their noses at anything the US and the UK and Europe wants)

Declaring women's rights vital for world peace, the Nobel Committee awarded its annual Peace Prize on Friday to three indomitable campaigners against war and oppression -- a Yemeni and two Liberians, including that country's president.

Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, Africa's first freely elected female head of state, shared the $1.5 million with compatriot Leymah Gbowee, who led a "sex strike" among her efforts against Liberia's civil war, and Arab activist Tawakul Karman, who hailed the award as a victory for democracy in Yemen.

Now if only Yemen's prez would leave

has this been posted yet: http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/05/world/meast/syria-woman-alive/index.html?iref=allsearch

Wow.

The family held a funeral and buried the body, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said.

The groups issued a statement saying they regret any inaccuracy in the misidentification of the body as that of Alhusni, and that both organizations regularly verify their information with multiple and independent sources.

Amnesty International said it had spoken directly to one of Alhusni's brothers to confirm the death, and Human Rights Watch later interviewed the woman's mother as well as a brother who washed the corpse prior to burial.

"It now appears that Zainab's family misidentified the body that was presented to them due to the extensive damage to the body," the groups said.

The current trouble in Egypt is a bit depressing, though I am drawing some comfort from it being the security forces laying into Copts rather than actual intercommunal violence. I am also seeing reports of Muslims joining in the protests to protect and assist Copts.

The military ruling council put off elections to 2013, and the Coptic Christians say the military council is not protecting them.

from Washington Post:
The violence began after men in civilian clothes attacked the Christian demonstrators with stones, according to witnesses. Soon, more Christians and Muslims raced downtown, where they clashed with security forces for hours.

Protesters torched police personnel carriers on a street along the Nile River, and armored personnel vehicles were dispatched late in the evening to Tahrir Square, where security forces used tear gas to disperse demonstrators.

...

Earlier Sunday, the ruling council said it would no longer try civilians in military courts, apparently bowing to pressure from activists.

In an apparent move to discourage a new sit-in in Tahrir Square, the cabinet announced a curfew in the area from 2 a.m. to 7 a.m.

Coptic Christians have been among the most vocal critics of the council. They complain that the military leadership has done too little to protect them in the wake of a string of attacks on churches this year. Coptic Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the country’s 80 million people, blame fundamentalist Muslims for the violence.

There was a Newsnight report about Homs in Syria the other night that was jaw-dropping, FYI. A town totally under seige, killings every day.. The heartbreaking thing about Homs is that people protest every day, even though no media is there, knowing they will be shot at every day, that people will die every day. They have been rigorously non-violent so far but that seems like it's changing, as more and more Syrian soldiers defect to Lebanon.. There are thousands now, and they're calling themselves the "Free Syrian Army"