a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Syria killed 13 more protesters today on Friday. The NY TImes says:

The government, troubled by a staggering economy and reliant on security forces that are said to be overextended and tired, has still managed to rally some popular support. Its political base includes religious minorities, the Syrian business elite and the country’s middle class. But despite a ferocious crackdown, the government has proved unable to blunt a protest movement of surprising resilience, though the protesters themselves have yet to make serious inroads into Damascus and Aleppo, the country’s two largest cities.

Breaking news on CNN.com:

Libyan rebel commander Abdel Fattah Younes assassinated in Benghazi, the National Transitional Council says.

No story yet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/31/syria-tanks-storm-hama

Basically, Egyptian liberals want military dictatorship to continue in Egypt, until they reckon they have become strong enough to win elections. I fear that these Egyptian liberals are not really getting the point of democracy.

― The New Dirty Vicar, Wednesday, July 13, 2011 6:44 PM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark

oh ffs. im not sure the muslim brotherhood's grasp on democracy is much firmer. but no-one should be writing sentences like this:

In a stark contrast of 1952, the Islamists are playing the role of the democrats, and the liberals are calling for the army to stay in power.

the only sense in which the islamists are like the liberals of 60 years ago is, they want the army out and power for themselves.

though i mean sure 'the point of democracy is to legitimize the existing power structure' - so on that score idk who the real democracts are.

this presents the same conundrum that so baffled sarah palin when she was asked about the paradox of hamas being democratically elected and then essentially abrogating the democratic process (something similar once happened in algeria, no? hence islamists are essentially banned from running candidates there).

any sense of what % of egyptian society supports musliim brotherhood?

actually it wasn't the political conundrum that baffled palin, it's that she had no idea how to parse the question that was being asked. but you get my drift.

70 to 100 dead from Assad sending tanks into Hama (link above)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed victory over "warmongers" after his forces killed 100 in Hama. But the violence could incite daily protests during Ramadan, which begins today.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0801/Syria-assault-on-Hama-signals-hardened-resolve-on-both-sides

and today is more of the same it seems

Army evicted protesters from Tahrir Square today. Twitter hashtag #tahrir has lots of eyewitness accounts.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/03/hounshell.syria.obama/

Foreign Policy mag editor describes criticism of Obama administration on Syria, and then defends Obama admin against the criticisms

Reuters) - Escalating violence in Syria has targeted oil-related facilities, but for now foreign firms are doing business as usual in a nation whose economy is reliant on crude, said a director at British oil explorer Gulfsands Petroleum.

Analysts have said the appetite for direct sanctions on Syria's oil industry is limited as oil at above $115 a barrel for Brent crude has reached a level economists have argued is damaging for the world's fragile economy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/us-syria-oil-idUSTRE77228C20110803

so that's alright then

Was thinking the same thing.

Gas/petrol prices for the rest of the world seem to be clearly more important than trying to hurt a regime that uses tanks against its own people
(Tienamen Square has long been forgotten)!!!

- Syria is a small oil producer and its sector has been in decline, with oil production down to about 390,000 barrels a day, of which the government exports about 148,000b/d. But it still forms a big revenue stream for the regime, with exports worth $3.5bn in 2009, roughly a third of total export earnings.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e735f18-bd22-11e0-9d5d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1UAB8CllU

this shit is fucked up

The Syrian military defied growing condemnation and deployed tanks in the restive Deir al-Zour, killing dozens, activists said.

Maybe now it is time to stop buying oil from them (but I bet that won't stop).

Business as usual despite complaints in Syria:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/09/ap/middleeast/main20089894.shtml

Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and Kuwait in the Gulf, recalled their ambassadors this week.

In an editorial published Tuesday, the Al Baath newspaper of Syria's ruling Baath party said the regime was hopeful that Turkey and the Gulf Arab nations will "quickly correct their stands."

On Monday, Assad replaced his defense minister with the army chief of staff, saying Gen. Ali Habib was being removed from his post because of health problems.

But some analysts said the general was unhappy with the crackdown.

Gulf nation hypocrites

Bahrain is kicking out Doctors without Borders for treating injured protestors there

Neo-con editorial in Washington Post urges Obama to do more about Syria but never says what "more" is...

Per above, maybe encouraging European Union to not buy oil from Syria (US gets its oil from elsewhere)

if we gave a shit about the human rights abuses of our trading partners then this keyboard im a-tapping would likely never have been made

you say that like it's a bad thing

ha ha. Do some people still make the argument that only through "engagement" can we influence these countries to change?

I think Canada is saying take our oil instead (taken from that environmental disaster oil shale project). Call it a grand bargain...

Tripoli seems to be a falling to the rebels tonight.

Assad's not leaving Syria, but he is promising parliamentary elections in February 2012. First though:

In Latakia province, a site of strife in recent days, the government on Sunday worked to clean away evidence of the bloody crackdown in advance of an expected visit by a U.N. humanitarian team, a diplomat said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/08/21/syria.unrest/

The European Union's political security committee is considering an embargo on Syrian crude oil. Oil and gas make up about a quarter of Syria's economy, according to the International Monetary Fund

The EU has been considering this for weeks and weeks. Is it really that financially difficult for them to get oil from elsewhere?

Syria is a pretty small oil producer, I doubt that high a percentage of oil consumed in Europe comes from there.

The EU is not famous for its quick decisions. I'm guessing the political security committee is the same body that never quite gets round to invoking the human rights clauses in trade deals with Israel, so I wouldn't hold your breath on this one.

The EU should be able to get more oil again from Libya

soon

(Reuters) - Iran has cut back or even stopped its funding of Hamas after the Islamist movement, which rules the Gaza Strip, failed to show public support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, diplomats said Sunday.

Hamas has denied that it is in financial crisis but says it faces liquidity problems stemming from inconsistent revenues from tax collection in the Gaza Strip and foreign aid.

"O Ali and O Bashar, Qaddafi lost his head," shouted demonstrators in the main square of the Yemeni capital Sanaa' on Monday, referring to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Local news agencies reported a heightened military presence in all major Yemeni cities, with at least 60 tanks entering the presidential compound in Sanaa' on Sunday.

"The news of Tripoli being taken by rebels will certainly influence the revolutions in Yemen and Syria, although the picture is still unclear as to Qaddafi's destiny," Muhammad Al-Musfir, a political scientist at Qatar University, told The Media Line.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/24/libyas-imperial-hijacking-threat-arab-revolution

this is all pretty unpleasant, as usual from seumas milne, but what does this mean?

Since the Arab revolution despatched two western-backed dictators in quick succession at the start of the year, there has been a three-pronged drive by the west to bring it under control. In Egypt, US and Saudi money has been poured in to suborn it. In Bahrain, conservative Gulf states have been given support to crush the uprising by force. And in Libya, the western powers have attempted to hijack it, while channelling covert support to the brutally repressed opposition in Syria.

is the last bit about syria part of the three-ponged drive or?

whatever, it's an amazingly occidentalist view of what's going on

Many of those who have fought for power in Libya, including Islamists, clearly won't accept the dispensation that's been prepared for them. But only when Nato and its bagmen are forced to leave Libya can Libyans truly take control of their own country.

yaaaaay

one of the prongs is a fork

http://www.juancole.com/2011/08/iraq-adopts-irans-backing-of-assad.html

Juan Cole on Iraq and Iran supporting Assad in Syria

Milne piece is all over the place. Whether the west supports an uprising or helps to crush it, it's all part of the same evil plan. What course of action would qualify as OK by Milne?

He also flatly acknowledges that the uprising would have failed without NATO help yet NATO help has contaminated it - another lose-lose scenario by his standards.

Presumably his alternative to "pick-and-choose liberal interventionism" (all foreign policy - all politics - is pick-and-choose) is doing nothing ever. I'm struggling to imagine a parallel universe in which Milne writes an editorial praising the west for its consistency and un-imperialist restraint in letting Gaddafi crush the rebellion. You appease an oil-producer = you want the oil. You help to topple an oil producer = you want the oil.

I don't see the point of reading critiques of western foreign policy by somebody who always thinks western foreign policy is de facto pernicious and never changes his mind. I don't agree with the anti-war case on this occasion but it deserves a better advocate than this.

This bit from the Cole piece is interesting. I didn't know this:

Cole: The Iranians have jumped up and down and been very vocal about the repression in Bahrain and they have even supported the Libyan uprising. In fact, they have supported all of the uprisings. They claimed that the uprisings are Islamic in character and inspired by Iran’s revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini. But the Iranians do not say anything about what is going on in Syria. It is just like a blank slate and a point of clear hypocrisy on their part.

I thought they were ignoring the uprisings because they don't want the one in Iran to arise again

Business as usual in Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/world/middleeast/26syria.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha22

Masked gunmen severely beat Syria’s best-known political cartoonist on Thursday, breaking his hand and leaving him to bleed on the side of a road in Damascus, activists said.

The attack came days after the artist, Ali Farzat, published a cartoon showing President Bashar al-Assad hitching a ride out of town with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, who was toppled from power this week.

Also Thursday, Syrian security forces carried out military operations against antigovernment activists in several areas across the country, killing nine people, activists and residents said.

....

The Local Coordination Committees, a group of Syrian activists involved in organizing and documenting the protests, said that four soldiers were also shot dead in Rastan after they refused to fire on protesters and residents. Activists said that a Turkish driver was killed as he was driving through the same village, though the reason was not clear.

The committees said that among those dead was a 9-year-old boy from Baniyas, a city along the Mediterranean Coast that was the scene of a brutal crackdown in May.

I guess the EU is still continuing to think about (as they have done for months) whether to stop getting oil from Syria. Syria may not have much, but it is a percentage of their income.

It feels like a no-brainer to me - the very least the EU could be doing.

NPR story excerpt:

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/26/139952344/western-sanctions-may-put-slow-squeeze-on-syria

On a recent government-sponsored tour, called "Syria Is Fine," reporters were shown bustling markets in Damascus where Syrians bought clothes, electronics and basic necessities.

The tour was arranged shortly after the United States formally called for Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down and banned the import of oil and gas.

American officials acknowledge this will have little impact unless Europe joins in as well. Europe buys nearly all of Syria's crude exports, and those sales account for about one-third of Syria's economy.

Looking To Iran

In an interview on Syrian state TV, Assad called these moves by the West "meaningless."

In the mind of a lot of Syrians, oil is linked to the army. ... So when you say, OK, we're going to stop the flow of crude, you're basically saying to the Syrian people at the same time, we're going to stop the flow of blood.

- Asaad al-Achi, Qatar-based Syrian activist
"We have alternatives," Assad said. "We'd already decided to start looking to the east, and we will continue to look east."

Analysts say that means if Syria can't sell its oil to Europe, it will sell it to India and China. But Assad wasn't just talking about India and China. He also was referring to his strongest ally, Iran.

Regional news outlets have reported that Iran recently moved billions of U.S. dollars to Syria to help keep the Syrian currency stable. Syrian economic officials denied the reports.

Yemen is still such a mess with President Saleh still in Saudia Arabia recovering from injuries and refusing to give up his office, loyalists supporting him, others opposed, and fundamentalist extremists taking over the southern portion (and ocassionally being hit by US drones)

"Syria Is Fine"

the thing that's probably hard to keep focus on, in this year of way-too-much-news, is that the uprising in egypt was a genuine geopolitical gamechanger, with significant consequences playing out for a long time to come (good and bad): it's producing a lot of anxiety, falling out, confusion, cognitive dissonence and switchback silliness everywhere, from the various embattled autocracies and not-really-democracies in the middle east up the courtier factions in Washington, across to their media mouthpieces and professional kneejerk foes, and down away into every kind of dissident local org trying to escape hegemony of same

"Nothing to See Here Folks"

dissonAnce: haha i wrote "cognitive dissidence" first and nearly didn't spot it -- seems like a useful term for something

I am being amused here by the dissatisfaction regarding events in Libya coming from a political movement here in Ireland that has in the past benefited from Colonel Gadafi's largesse.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2011/08/26/01003-20110826ARTFIG00322-ali-ferzat-le-caricaturiste-syrien-aux-mains-brisees.php

Internationally famous caricaturist, Ali Ferzat, found after thugs broke his hands and beat the stuffing out of him.

that's almost poetical in its brutishness. if someone is drawing caricatures, you don't threaten or try to silence him, obviously you just break his hands.

The NY Times story upthread about it notes: The attack came days after the artist, Ali Farzat, published a cartoon showing President Bashar al-Assad hitching a ride out of town with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, who was toppled from power this week.