a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Saudi Arabia will withdraw most of its 1200 troops from neighboring Bahrain by next week after a three-month mission

How kind of them

If it's Friday, it means there ae protests in Syria:

from NY Times:

“Leave! Leave!” protesters chanted to a hip-hop beat.

After weeks of protests and crackdown, the uprising in Syria appears to have taken a compelling, if ambiguous turn lately. Diplomats speak of a stalemate, as neither protesters nor officials seem able to muster the strength to conclude the struggle on their terms. But new dynamics have emerged, as the opposition gathered in a rare meeting in Damascus this week, government officials have promised reform and protesters, in Hama in particular, have demonstrated a momentum that may prove impossible to blunt.

Hey NY Times, Assad has been blunting the protestors with bullets and jailtime for months. I'm not sure how they can "muster the strength to conclude the struggle on their terms" as long as he still has a military that sticks with him.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/07/syria-protesters-snub-regimes-invitation-for-national-dialogue.html

The statement questioned the actual motives of the regime in calling for dialogue, especially as “its forces continue to shell many cities, as well as arbitrarily kill and detain many protestors, torturing them to death in some cases.”

“This means that the regime’s aim in calling for dialogue is just to influence main international powers, rather than to really respond to the demands of the Syrian people,” it said.

In addition, the statement highlighted basic conditions the regime had not satisfied in order to promote an environment conducive to dialogue, such as stopping the use of violence against protesters and halting the detention of peaceful demonstrators.

Releasing political prisoners, ending the siege on numerous cities, stemming the stream of pro-regime propaganda and allowing foreign media to access the country to cover the current events, were also other demands the state had not yet met, making it an unsuitable partner for negotiation, the statement said.

Juan Cole on Syria (this is of course pretty much what everyone says)

In the absence of enormous crowds in the streets of the capital and a split military, it will be very hard for the protesters to prevail.

Syrian protest singer and activist Ibrahim Kashoush reportedly murdered. His body was found dumped in the river with his throat cut. It's quite a song he wrote.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/BlogDetails.aspx?TID=1640&FID=6

Fuck.

There's always news from Syria on Friday:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8626514/Syria-reacts-at-fury-to-US-involvement-in-Hama.html

The presence of Robert Ford in Hama, along with his French counterpart, Eric Chevallier, encouraged an even higher turn-out at Friday's demonstration and infuriated the Assad regime.

“The US ambassador met with saboteurs in Hama who erected checkpoints, cut traffic and prevented citizens from going to work,” an interior ministry statement said. “The ambassador incited these saboteurs to violence, to demonstrate and to refuse dialogue.”

The foreign ministry said it was “proof” that America was instigating events in Syria, and “disturbing internal security and stability”.

Here's an Israeli take on what is happening in Syria and how it relates to Iran, Turkey and Lebanon

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=228411

x-post - Glad to see the US doing something that annoys Assad's government. Obama has been quiet on Syria since his speech urging Assad to take part in reform or get out of the way.

According to Tariq Alhomayed, the editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat in English, Assad fired his provincial governor of Hama following last Friday’s demonstration for not shooting the demonstrators.

Oww. That's from that Jerusalem Post piece

http://twitter.com/#!/Reuters/status/90409488078749696

uhm not much info on this^^ yet, but that can't be good

BEIRUT --President Bashar Assad's loyalists broke into the U.S. Embassy compound Monday in the Syrian capital Damascus, Reuters reports.

Loyalists also reportedly tried to break into the French embassy. The attacks came as regime supporters protested outside both embassies for a third day

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/

A blog about Syria with discussion of today's meeting (The Syrian Vp and some who want to bring about change, but not leading opposition participants) and re the US ambassador and embassy situation.

I have not read much of this blog.

US now taking harder line against Assad due to the embassy trashing incident.

not sure what a harder line constitutes at this point, tbh

Saying Assad must go versus saying Assad should reform or must go...It's all talk I guess as long as Assad has the military, Iran and Lebanon with him

I have not read much of this blog.

Joshua Landis is one of the world leaders in Knowing Stuff About Syria.

Ah, I thought I heard his name on the radio recently. I am one of the world leaders in Not Knowing Stuff about Syria. But I am curious.

Meanwhile with regard to Egypt, I was amused by this article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14112032

Basically, Egyptian liberals want military dictatorship to continue in Egypt, until they reckon they have become strong enough to win elections. I fear that these Egyptian liberals are not really getting the point of democracy.

On the other hand, I like this report about how a load of Mubarak-associated cops are to be retired or sacked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14143879

And with Syria, this report from the Crisis Group is probably worth reading: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-syria-lebanon/syria/109-popular-protest-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-vii-the-syrian-regimes-slow-motion-suicide.aspx

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/14/our_man_in_damascus

Ford dismissed the idea that prior to Hama he had been a captive in his Embassy, unable to engage with anyone. Quite the contrary. He has had access to both the Syrian government and to key sectors of Syrian society such as the business community. The threat of violent retaliation and intimidation of Syrians who meet with American officials is real, though, and he acknowledged that some had refused invitations out of this fear. Senior administration officials have told me several times in other conversations that Ford's conversations were one of their most important sources of information in assessing the Syrian scene. This is one key reason why they considered his presence essential even before his electrifying visit to Hama persuaded most of their critics of his value.

Ford waved away suggestions that he might rein in his activities in the face of official pressure. "I’m not going to stop the things I do," he said quietly. "I can’t. The president has issued very clear guidance. It’s morally the right thing to do." He plans to take further trips around the country, to continue to meet with as many Syrians as he can, and to push to open political space and to restrain regime violence. He doesn't think that the Obama administration will recall him, and has no indication as yet whether the Syrian government will expel him.

Syria killed 13 more protesters today on Friday. The NY TImes says:

The government, troubled by a staggering economy and reliant on security forces that are said to be overextended and tired, has still managed to rally some popular support. Its political base includes religious minorities, the Syrian business elite and the country’s middle class. But despite a ferocious crackdown, the government has proved unable to blunt a protest movement of surprising resilience, though the protesters themselves have yet to make serious inroads into Damascus and Aleppo, the country’s two largest cities.

Breaking news on CNN.com:

Libyan rebel commander Abdel Fattah Younes assassinated in Benghazi, the National Transitional Council says.

No story yet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/31/syria-tanks-storm-hama

Basically, Egyptian liberals want military dictatorship to continue in Egypt, until they reckon they have become strong enough to win elections. I fear that these Egyptian liberals are not really getting the point of democracy.

― The New Dirty Vicar, Wednesday, July 13, 2011 6:44 PM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark

oh ffs. im not sure the muslim brotherhood's grasp on democracy is much firmer. but no-one should be writing sentences like this:

In a stark contrast of 1952, the Islamists are playing the role of the democrats, and the liberals are calling for the army to stay in power.

the only sense in which the islamists are like the liberals of 60 years ago is, they want the army out and power for themselves.

though i mean sure 'the point of democracy is to legitimize the existing power structure' - so on that score idk who the real democracts are.

this presents the same conundrum that so baffled sarah palin when she was asked about the paradox of hamas being democratically elected and then essentially abrogating the democratic process (something similar once happened in algeria, no? hence islamists are essentially banned from running candidates there).

any sense of what % of egyptian society supports musliim brotherhood?

actually it wasn't the political conundrum that baffled palin, it's that she had no idea how to parse the question that was being asked. but you get my drift.

70 to 100 dead from Assad sending tanks into Hama (link above)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed victory over "warmongers" after his forces killed 100 in Hama. But the violence could incite daily protests during Ramadan, which begins today.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0801/Syria-assault-on-Hama-signals-hardened-resolve-on-both-sides

and today is more of the same it seems

Army evicted protesters from Tahrir Square today. Twitter hashtag #tahrir has lots of eyewitness accounts.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/03/hounshell.syria.obama/

Foreign Policy mag editor describes criticism of Obama administration on Syria, and then defends Obama admin against the criticisms

Reuters) - Escalating violence in Syria has targeted oil-related facilities, but for now foreign firms are doing business as usual in a nation whose economy is reliant on crude, said a director at British oil explorer Gulfsands Petroleum.

Analysts have said the appetite for direct sanctions on Syria's oil industry is limited as oil at above $115 a barrel for Brent crude has reached a level economists have argued is damaging for the world's fragile economy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/us-syria-oil-idUSTRE77228C20110803

so that's alright then

Was thinking the same thing.

Gas/petrol prices for the rest of the world seem to be clearly more important than trying to hurt a regime that uses tanks against its own people
(Tienamen Square has long been forgotten)!!!

- Syria is a small oil producer and its sector has been in decline, with oil production down to about 390,000 barrels a day, of which the government exports about 148,000b/d. But it still forms a big revenue stream for the regime, with exports worth $3.5bn in 2009, roughly a third of total export earnings.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e735f18-bd22-11e0-9d5d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1UAB8CllU

this shit is fucked up

The Syrian military defied growing condemnation and deployed tanks in the restive Deir al-Zour, killing dozens, activists said.

Maybe now it is time to stop buying oil from them (but I bet that won't stop).

Business as usual despite complaints in Syria:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/09/ap/middleeast/main20089894.shtml

Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and Kuwait in the Gulf, recalled their ambassadors this week.

In an editorial published Tuesday, the Al Baath newspaper of Syria's ruling Baath party said the regime was hopeful that Turkey and the Gulf Arab nations will "quickly correct their stands."

On Monday, Assad replaced his defense minister with the army chief of staff, saying Gen. Ali Habib was being removed from his post because of health problems.

But some analysts said the general was unhappy with the crackdown.

Gulf nation hypocrites

Bahrain is kicking out Doctors without Borders for treating injured protestors there

Neo-con editorial in Washington Post urges Obama to do more about Syria but never says what "more" is...

Per above, maybe encouraging European Union to not buy oil from Syria (US gets its oil from elsewhere)

if we gave a shit about the human rights abuses of our trading partners then this keyboard im a-tapping would likely never have been made

you say that like it's a bad thing

ha ha. Do some people still make the argument that only through "engagement" can we influence these countries to change?

I think Canada is saying take our oil instead (taken from that environmental disaster oil shale project). Call it a grand bargain...

Tripoli seems to be a falling to the rebels tonight.

Assad's not leaving Syria, but he is promising parliamentary elections in February 2012. First though:

In Latakia province, a site of strife in recent days, the government on Sunday worked to clean away evidence of the bloody crackdown in advance of an expected visit by a U.N. humanitarian team, a diplomat said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/08/21/syria.unrest/

The European Union's political security committee is considering an embargo on Syrian crude oil. Oil and gas make up about a quarter of Syria's economy, according to the International Monetary Fund

The EU has been considering this for weeks and weeks. Is it really that financially difficult for them to get oil from elsewhere?

Syria is a pretty small oil producer, I doubt that high a percentage of oil consumed in Europe comes from there.

The EU is not famous for its quick decisions. I'm guessing the political security committee is the same body that never quite gets round to invoking the human rights clauses in trade deals with Israel, so I wouldn't hold your breath on this one.