a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

I guess Assad did not listen to Ban Ki-Moon today. Another Friday with protests and killings

from the NY Times:

By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: June 17, 2011
BEIRUT — Tens of thousands of protesters poured into the streets of Damascus’s suburbs and three of Syria’s five largest cities on Friday, in a weekly show of defiance against President Bashar al-Assad. Activists said at least 19 people were killed.

Security forces fired on protesters in Homs, one of Syria most restive locales, and the police and protesters fought in Deir al-Zour, a large city in the east. But thousands were permitted to demonstrate in Kiswa, a town south of Damascus and carry banners that read, “Leave!” and “The people want the fall of the regime.”

From the Washington Post-Assad is still in fantasyland

— Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday blamed the mass protests rocking his country on “saboteurs” and “vandalism,” declaring in a televised speech that “there can be no development without stability.”

Assad, wrestling with the boldest challenge ever to his family’s 40-year rule, spoke for more than an hour at Damascus University, sounding mostly defiant despite some conciliatory notes.

Bahrain says a special security court has given life sentences to eight Shiite activists accused of plotting to overthrow the state.

The Bahrain News Agency says the life sentences were issued Wednesday against prominent Shiite political leader Hassan Mushaima, Shiite activist Abduljalil Al Singace and six others.

The report says pro-reform figure Ibrahim Sharif received five years and others sentences ranged from two to 15 years.

A total of 21 suspects were on trial — 14 in custody and the rest in absentia.

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/dynamic/00608/Pg-01-splashpic-epa_608273t.jpg

And Obama hasn't been much better.

Meanwhile Syria responds to the EU finally doing something:

from voa news:

Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallim said in a speech in Damascus Wednesday that EU sanctions against military-linked companies in Syria and individuals show that the bloc wants to "plant strife and chaos" in the Arab nation.

He dismissed the EU sanctions, saying that Syria "will forget Europe is on the map." He also denied that Iran and Hezbollah are helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down the unrest.

Is Syria gonna provoke a war with Turkey, or at least a skirmish?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162494326219146.html

that would be very uh... stupid of them.

NATO member and all that

Is this meeting held in Damascus good or bad?

Other speakers in the conference, attended by 150 people in a Damascus hotel, adopted a softer tone but said demands of street protesters after decades of autocratic rule must be met.

Syrian writer Louay Hussein, who was also a political prisoner, said repression in the last four decades have undermined Syria as a whole while emphasizing that peaceful means must be found to meet popular demands.

Hussein said the meeting would try to explore "ending the state of dictatorship, and a peaceful and safe transition into a desired country, one of freedom, justice and equality."

Monther Khaddam, an academic from the coastal city of Latakia, said a wider national dialogue is needed but that intellectuals were "behind street demands until the end."

Organizers of Monday's conference described it as a platform for independent figures searching for a way out of the violence

Main opposition figures had said the meeting could give political cover to Assad, with human rights groups saying that security forces have killed over 1,300 civilians and imprisoned 12,000 since the uprising began in southern Syria.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/27/us-syria-idUSTRE75J0AV20110627

imprisoned 12,000!

well if it's being boycotted by those who see it as an exercise in ass-covering and if opposition leaders are specifically disinvited it doesn't look promising..

I guess pretty soon the whole country will be in jail

or in Turkey. While the numbers who have ended up in Turkey never reached the million stage as once talked about, apparently many Syrians were intimidated from leaving by an increased military presence near the border. I think 10,000 or so did make across to Turkey

The Bahrain situation really is outrageous - a regime reliant on foreign mercenaries to keep itself in power.

Is Syria gonna provoke a war with Turkey, or at least a skirmish?

I can't see that as very likely... relations with Turkey improved a lot a while ago, partly because the Turks played a skillful game of carrot and stick (stick being their kickarse military). The Assads have never initiated a war they would clearly lose, so picking a fight with Turkey would be a very strange move.

It sounds like the Turkey/Syria border issues of recent weeks have calmed down some.

Wondering what Assad is up to--allowing the meeting in Damascus yesterday and now letting some media in, including NPR.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/06/28/137470934/in-syria-government-lets-international-media-in-to-make-its-case

isn't it pretty clear what he's up to?

planning a surprise party!

playing for time till the alien mercenaries arrive?

That's it. One would think he would realize that his tiny steps are not fooling anyone. Come Friday there will be more Syrians out in the street.

Saudi Arabia will withdraw most of its 1200 troops from neighboring Bahrain by next week after a three-month mission

How kind of them

If it's Friday, it means there ae protests in Syria:

from NY Times:

“Leave! Leave!” protesters chanted to a hip-hop beat.

After weeks of protests and crackdown, the uprising in Syria appears to have taken a compelling, if ambiguous turn lately. Diplomats speak of a stalemate, as neither protesters nor officials seem able to muster the strength to conclude the struggle on their terms. But new dynamics have emerged, as the opposition gathered in a rare meeting in Damascus this week, government officials have promised reform and protesters, in Hama in particular, have demonstrated a momentum that may prove impossible to blunt.

Hey NY Times, Assad has been blunting the protestors with bullets and jailtime for months. I'm not sure how they can "muster the strength to conclude the struggle on their terms" as long as he still has a military that sticks with him.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/07/syria-protesters-snub-regimes-invitation-for-national-dialogue.html

The statement questioned the actual motives of the regime in calling for dialogue, especially as “its forces continue to shell many cities, as well as arbitrarily kill and detain many protestors, torturing them to death in some cases.”

“This means that the regime’s aim in calling for dialogue is just to influence main international powers, rather than to really respond to the demands of the Syrian people,” it said.

In addition, the statement highlighted basic conditions the regime had not satisfied in order to promote an environment conducive to dialogue, such as stopping the use of violence against protesters and halting the detention of peaceful demonstrators.

Releasing political prisoners, ending the siege on numerous cities, stemming the stream of pro-regime propaganda and allowing foreign media to access the country to cover the current events, were also other demands the state had not yet met, making it an unsuitable partner for negotiation, the statement said.

Juan Cole on Syria (this is of course pretty much what everyone says)

In the absence of enormous crowds in the streets of the capital and a split military, it will be very hard for the protesters to prevail.

Syrian protest singer and activist Ibrahim Kashoush reportedly murdered. His body was found dumped in the river with his throat cut. It's quite a song he wrote.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/BlogDetails.aspx?TID=1640&FID=6

Fuck.

There's always news from Syria on Friday:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8626514/Syria-reacts-at-fury-to-US-involvement-in-Hama.html

The presence of Robert Ford in Hama, along with his French counterpart, Eric Chevallier, encouraged an even higher turn-out at Friday's demonstration and infuriated the Assad regime.

“The US ambassador met with saboteurs in Hama who erected checkpoints, cut traffic and prevented citizens from going to work,” an interior ministry statement said. “The ambassador incited these saboteurs to violence, to demonstrate and to refuse dialogue.”

The foreign ministry said it was “proof” that America was instigating events in Syria, and “disturbing internal security and stability”.

Here's an Israeli take on what is happening in Syria and how it relates to Iran, Turkey and Lebanon

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=228411

x-post - Glad to see the US doing something that annoys Assad's government. Obama has been quiet on Syria since his speech urging Assad to take part in reform or get out of the way.

According to Tariq Alhomayed, the editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat in English, Assad fired his provincial governor of Hama following last Friday’s demonstration for not shooting the demonstrators.

Oww. That's from that Jerusalem Post piece

http://twitter.com/#!/Reuters/status/90409488078749696

uhm not much info on this^^ yet, but that can't be good

BEIRUT --President Bashar Assad's loyalists broke into the U.S. Embassy compound Monday in the Syrian capital Damascus, Reuters reports.

Loyalists also reportedly tried to break into the French embassy. The attacks came as regime supporters protested outside both embassies for a third day

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/

A blog about Syria with discussion of today's meeting (The Syrian Vp and some who want to bring about change, but not leading opposition participants) and re the US ambassador and embassy situation.

I have not read much of this blog.

US now taking harder line against Assad due to the embassy trashing incident.

not sure what a harder line constitutes at this point, tbh

Saying Assad must go versus saying Assad should reform or must go...It's all talk I guess as long as Assad has the military, Iran and Lebanon with him

I have not read much of this blog.

Joshua Landis is one of the world leaders in Knowing Stuff About Syria.

Ah, I thought I heard his name on the radio recently. I am one of the world leaders in Not Knowing Stuff about Syria. But I am curious.

Meanwhile with regard to Egypt, I was amused by this article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14112032

Basically, Egyptian liberals want military dictatorship to continue in Egypt, until they reckon they have become strong enough to win elections. I fear that these Egyptian liberals are not really getting the point of democracy.

On the other hand, I like this report about how a load of Mubarak-associated cops are to be retired or sacked: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14143879

And with Syria, this report from the Crisis Group is probably worth reading: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-syria-lebanon/syria/109-popular-protest-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-vii-the-syrian-regimes-slow-motion-suicide.aspx

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/14/our_man_in_damascus

Ford dismissed the idea that prior to Hama he had been a captive in his Embassy, unable to engage with anyone. Quite the contrary. He has had access to both the Syrian government and to key sectors of Syrian society such as the business community. The threat of violent retaliation and intimidation of Syrians who meet with American officials is real, though, and he acknowledged that some had refused invitations out of this fear. Senior administration officials have told me several times in other conversations that Ford's conversations were one of their most important sources of information in assessing the Syrian scene. This is one key reason why they considered his presence essential even before his electrifying visit to Hama persuaded most of their critics of his value.

Ford waved away suggestions that he might rein in his activities in the face of official pressure. "I’m not going to stop the things I do," he said quietly. "I can’t. The president has issued very clear guidance. It’s morally the right thing to do." He plans to take further trips around the country, to continue to meet with as many Syrians as he can, and to push to open political space and to restrain regime violence. He doesn't think that the Obama administration will recall him, and has no indication as yet whether the Syrian government will expel him.

Syria killed 13 more protesters today on Friday. The NY TImes says:

The government, troubled by a staggering economy and reliant on security forces that are said to be overextended and tired, has still managed to rally some popular support. Its political base includes religious minorities, the Syrian business elite and the country’s middle class. But despite a ferocious crackdown, the government has proved unable to blunt a protest movement of surprising resilience, though the protesters themselves have yet to make serious inroads into Damascus and Aleppo, the country’s two largest cities.

Breaking news on CNN.com:

Libyan rebel commander Abdel Fattah Younes assassinated in Benghazi, the National Transitional Council says.

No story yet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/31/syria-tanks-storm-hama

Basically, Egyptian liberals want military dictatorship to continue in Egypt, until they reckon they have become strong enough to win elections. I fear that these Egyptian liberals are not really getting the point of democracy.

― The New Dirty Vicar, Wednesday, July 13, 2011 6:44 PM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark

oh ffs. im not sure the muslim brotherhood's grasp on democracy is much firmer. but no-one should be writing sentences like this:

In a stark contrast of 1952, the Islamists are playing the role of the democrats, and the liberals are calling for the army to stay in power.

the only sense in which the islamists are like the liberals of 60 years ago is, they want the army out and power for themselves.

though i mean sure 'the point of democracy is to legitimize the existing power structure' - so on that score idk who the real democracts are.

this presents the same conundrum that so baffled sarah palin when she was asked about the paradox of hamas being democratically elected and then essentially abrogating the democratic process (something similar once happened in algeria, no? hence islamists are essentially banned from running candidates there).

any sense of what % of egyptian society supports musliim brotherhood?

actually it wasn't the political conundrum that baffled palin, it's that she had no idea how to parse the question that was being asked. but you get my drift.

70 to 100 dead from Assad sending tanks into Hama (link above)

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed victory over "warmongers" after his forces killed 100 in Hama. But the violence could incite daily protests during Ramadan, which begins today.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0801/Syria-assault-on-Hama-signals-hardened-resolve-on-both-sides

and today is more of the same it seems

Army evicted protesters from Tahrir Square today. Twitter hashtag #tahrir has lots of eyewitness accounts.