a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

^^^otm. it's not strictly a numbers game, its an organizational/$$$ game

But can't the secularists get organized, or are they split among too many different factions? The Islamic types might be already organized, but does that mean they have more numbers?

Also, in Egypt and Tunisia the fundamentalist Islamists are claiming they won't be like those in Iran, but everyone seems concerned. Does anyone know whether Turkey has a constitution that spells out any concepts re religious freedom and secular freedom and the role of religion in the political process? Isn't that what these countries need?

Meanwhile in Syria:

"I fear that dozens more casualties may be lying in nearby wheat fields and orchards because families have not been able to access the region which is encircled by security troops and snipers," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8516958/Syria-mass-grave-found-in-Deraa.html

Turkish gov't's secular nature is in their constitution iirc thx to Kamal Ataturk

and the Army

shakey turkey is a little more complicated now

active neutrality!

AP The United States on Monday accused Syria of inciting Palestinian unrest along the Israeli-held Golan Heights to divert attention from its violent crackdown on protests. The State Department called it a "cynical" ploy

US helicopters sold to Yemen's dictatorship

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/2011429181644559572.html

Also:

US President Barack Obama Tuesday meets Jordan's King Abdullah II, kicking off a week of intense Middle East diplomacy at a moment of deep pessimism over prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Obama will also meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week, make a big speech on the implications of Arab uprisings and speak to the powerful US Israel lobby on Sunday before heading off on a trip to Europe.

He's offering Jordan economic aid but I wonder if he encouraged the King to address the complaints of Jordanian protesters-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/jordan/8296589/King-Abdullah-II-of-Jordan-sacks-government-amid-street-protests.html

demanded the dismissal of Mr Rifai's government and a change in electoral law to allow the Jordanian people to vote for their prime minister, a position presently selected by royal appointment.

They also called for the dissolution of parliament, elected in a general election last November that was widely seen as heavily flawed.

Royal aides said the king has instructed his new government to reform the unpopular electoral law and insisted that he had met most of the protesters' demands by paving the way for Jordan's transformation from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy.

Juan Cole: The Arab Spring comes to Israel

http://www.juancole.com/2011/05/the-arab-spring-comes-to-israel.html

Israel won't give up on settlements, Hamas won't recognize Israel's right to exist, and nothing ever changes...

By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

AMMAN | Wed May 18, 2011 11:02am EDT

AMMAN (Reuters) - Tanks shelled a Syrian border town for the fourth day on Wednesday in a military campaign to crush demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad, under mounting Western pressure to stop repression of protest

...

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would respond to Syria's crackdown with additional steps in coming days if the government did not change course.

Will Obama refer to Syria in his big speech on Thursday?

http://www.solarnavigator.net/music/music_images/Steps_why_better_best_forgotten_album.jpg

Ha

sanctions imposted against Assad and 6 others

imposed too

Mr Cameron kept this quiet:

David Cameron is expected to discuss the Bahrain authorities' crackdown on protesters with the Gulf state's Crown Prince when he visits Downing Street.

Crown Prince Salman al-Khalifa's visit to London comes after he declined an invitation to the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton last month amid fears that protests against his presence might tarnish the event.

Bahrain was widely condemned for inviting neighbouring Saudi Arabia to send in troops to help put down protests against the ruling al-Khalifa dynasty.

On June 1 Bahrain is due to lift the martial law imposed in March following weeks of pro-democracy protests which resulted in the deaths of at least 29 people. Hundreds of people have been arrested and dozens put on trial in special courts.

Speaking ahead of the visit, Mr Cameron's official spokesman said: "I would expect them to discuss developments in the Middle East and north Africa, the Arab Spring, the Middle East peace process and the situation in Bahrain. Bahrain has been seeking to reform their political system in a number of ways, and that is something we welcome."

Asked at a regular daily press briefing in Westminster why Britain was welcoming the Crown Prince, when it had got involved in military action to prevent the repression of protesters in Libya, the spokesman said: "We said all along that the situation in different countries is different. There are different circumstances and we need to reflect that. Clearly, in all cases we would support reform and dialogue."

Human rights campaigner Peter Tatchell said: "It is a huge error of judgment to fete the Crown Prince of Bahrain at a time when his regime is arresting, jailing, torturing and killing peaceful democracy protesters.

"Britain should not be conducting business as usual with a tyranny that is guilty of gross human rights abuses.

"David Cameron should press the Bahraini authorities to lift the state of emergency immediately, halt the use of torture and release all political prisoners. Saudi Arabia and the UAE should be urged to withdraw their troops.

"If the duty to protect civilians applies in Libya, why not in Bahrain?"

barack obama speaking now, anyone listening? i just tuned in

(para) "there will be times when our short term interests will be different from our long-term vision" is this as close as he'll get to mentioning bahrain and yemen?

he just got applause for something, and i was typing that ^ out whoops

ha, i just tuned in & was like, surely if they applaud every generally positive platitude this is going to take a while

stuttering stanley, stuttering stanley

sorry

muslims, christians, we are one

intriguing

A senior administration official said that Mr. Obama’s advisers remained deeply divided over whether he should formally endorse Israel’s pre-1967 borders as the starting point for negotiations over a Palestinian state.

He did and that's the NY Times headline (I didn't hear the speech. Just reading the analysis at my lunch). He was critical of Bahrain as well as Syria and Hamas.

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/dynamic/00608/Pg-01-splashpic-epa_608273t.jpg

Neither the UK nor the US (Obama's speech) is making anyone happy in this region (well maybe the Saudi rulers)

From here at the heart of the Arab Spring to its current battlefronts in Damascus; Syria; and Benghazi, Libya, many said the speech had failed to dispel the legacy of resentment from America’s support for Arab autocrats, its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and its alliance with Israel. Many said Mr. Obama seemed most willing to support democratic revolts after the fact.

“They wait to see who wins and then support them,” said Ahmed Maher, 30, a civil engineer and an architect of the Egyptian uprising as coordinator of the liberal April 6 Youth Movement.

NY Times

Assad not listening to Obama:

As military crackdown continues, 23 people are killed one day after Obama delivers strongest rebuke yet.

look we have no leverage with Syria - whatever Obama says isn't going to change Assad's actions. these guys are insular, they're circling the wagons. the only real question is how far the military is willing to go in suppressing this (clearly pretty far), and whether things will erupt into full-scale military conflict (not likely). Outlook is not good, imho

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/syria-uprising-reform-bashar-al-assad

Details on Syria's failed economy. As another article said, Syria has not proven it can be like China (autocratic with a booming economy)!

Interesting quotes from a NY Times overview of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon:

“As Muslims, our sheiks are always telling us to be good to Christians, but we don’t think that is happening on the other side,” said Ibrahim Sakr, 56, a chemistry professor, who asserted that Copts, who make up about 10 percent of the population, still consider themselves “the original” Egyptians because their presence predates Islam.

In Libya, supporters of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi acknowledge that his government banks on fears of clan rivalries and possible partition to stay in power in a country with deep regional differences.

Officials say that the large extended clans of the west that contribute most of the soldiers to Colonel Qaddafi’s forces will never accept any revolution arising from the east, no matter what promises the rebels make about universal citizenship in a democratic Libya with its capital still in the western city of Tripoli.

The rebels say the revolution can forge a new identity.

“Qaddafi looks at Libya as west and east and north and south,” said Jadella Shalwee, a Libyan from Tobruk who visited Tahrir Square last weekend in a pilgrimage of sorts. “But this revolt has canceled all that. This is about a new beginning,” he said, contending that Colonel Qaddafi’s only supporters were “his cousins and his family.”

“My Alawite friends want me to support the regime, and they feel if it’s gone, our community will be finished,” said Mohsen, the young Alawite in Damascus, who asked that only his first name be used because he feared reprisal. “My Sunni friends want me to be against the regime, but I feel conflicted. We want freedom, but freedom with stability and security.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/world/middleeast/22arab.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

To retaliate for the European Union sanctions on Syria, Damascus will strengthen its relationship with Russia, China and Latin America, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mualiem said on Monday. Through this shift in diplomatic policies, Syria seeks to show to the EU and the U.S. that there are other global powers they could count on, Mualiem said

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/90049384?Syria%20to%20align%20with%20China%2C%20Russia%20in%20response%20to%20EU%20sanctions

That's what I thought would happen. Too bad.

Nighttime protests in Syria.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/05/syria-protesters-get-creative-as-night-demonstrations-wear-out-security-forces-.html

^^^so awesome

More on the Syrian economy and its relation to the protests. But no mention of whether Russia, China,Lebanon, and Latin American involvement can help prop up the Syrian government while Turkish and EU involvement disappears along with tourism.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/under-pressure-syria-ends-economic-liberalization-worsening-outlook/239417/

Outside the fast-growing and increasingly cosmopolitan cities, Syria's rural majority have seen living costs rise as fuel prices have made transport more expensive. Markets flooded with foreign goods have made manufacturing less profitable and years of drought have left farmers in some areas starving.

It is these have-nots, said one Western diplomat, who have been driving the protest movement. Unlike in Egypt where the urban, web-savvy upper-middle class played a major role in protests, many of Syria's city-dwellers have seen their lives improve in recent years.

Some young elites have railed against the brutal, undemocratic regime, he added, and more would if they were not so afraid, but the protests have mostly been in poor towns and cities, sparked by economic woes.

That last quoted paragraph kind of muddies the message in the article re why some are protesting and some are not

Egypt is apparently opening its border with Gaza: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13552685

good times!

Israel says the blockade is needed to stop weapons being smuggled into Gaza.

This theory is about to be tested.

it's all a bit heads-I-win, tails-you-lose, given that there were already weapons being smuggled into Gaza even with the blockade.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/05/top-5-arab-spring-stories-today.html Mubarak; Yemen; Gaza; Libya

More ugly Syrian news

By Associated Press, Updated: Thursday, May 26, 12:05 PM
BEIRUT — The Syrian regime is unleashing shadowy, mafia-style gunmen to carry out some of the most brutal attacks on dissent as the country’s 10-week uprising threatens President Bashar Assad’s once-unshakable grip on power.

The gunmen belong to a pro-Assad militia called “shabiha,” which runs protection rackets, smuggling rings and other criminal enterprises while providing muscle for the regime.

7 more dead in Syria on Friday--and not that it would have done much, but the Russians blocked a draft UN Security Council resolution condemning Syria

Washington and the European Union have already imposed sanctions against Assad and other Syrian officials. But Russia has been more reticent in denouncing Assad because of a desire to reassert old Soviet-era influence in the region.

Western diplomats had expressed hope on Thursday that veto-holders Russia and China would not block a draft resolution which Britain, France, Germany and Portugal circulated to the UN Security Council on Wednesday.

But Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in Deauville a draft resolution was "untimely and damaging".

"There are no grounds to consider this issue (Syria) in the UN Security Council. We will not even read the text."

The draft says Syria's actions may amount to crimes against humanity and condemns the violation of human rights, arbitrary detentions and torture of peaceful demonstrators.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/syria-forces-kill-seven-protesters-as-world-pressure-on-assad-grows-1.364493

I know Spain is hardly the region in question, but I don't know where to put this, and my friend in Barcelona just sent me this photo series from the protests there today

http://www.flickr.com/photos/acampadabcnfoto/5764476979/in/photostream/lightbox/

Iran helping crush Syrian protests

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-reportedly-aiding-syrian-crackdown/2011/05/27/AGUJe0CH_story.html

U.S. officials say Iran is dispatching increasing numbers of trainers and advisers — including members of its elite Quds Force — into Syria to help crush anti-government demonstrations that are threatening to topple Iran’s most important ally in the region.

The influx of Iranian manpower is adding to a steady stream of aid from Tehran that includes not only weapons and riot gear but also sophisticated surveillance equipment that is helping Syrian authorities track down opponents through their Facebook and Twitter accounts, the sources said. Iranian-assisted computer surveillance is believed to have led to the arrests of hundreds of Syrians seized from their homes in recent weeks.

Britain is training Saudi Arabia's national guard – the elite security force deployed during the recent protests in Bahrain – in public order enforcement measures and the use of sniper rifles.

In response to questions made under the Freedom of Information Act, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that British personnel regularly run courses for the national guard in "weapons, fieldcraft and general military skills training, as well as incident handling, bomb disposal, search, public order and sniper training". The courses are organised through the British Military Mission to the Saudi Arabian National Guard, an obscure unit that consists of 11 British army personnel under the command of a brigadier.

The MoD response, obtained yesterday by the Observer, reveals that Britain sends up to 20 training teams to the kingdom a year. Saudi Arabia pays for "all BMM personnel, as well as support costs such as accommodation and transport".

great...

wtf

Egyptian general admits 'virginity checks' conducted on protesters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110528/wl_mideast_afp/syriapoliticsunrestboy_20110528123806

Robert Fisk says the region doesn't care what the US thinks and Obama's been weak anyway (he drops in an item re Algeria aiding Libya though; and he never spells out how Obama is supposed to make Israel play nice; Hamas recognize Israel; keep Iran from aiding Syria; Make the Yemen prez resign; keep the Saudis out of Bahrain and address their own problems, etc.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/who-cares-in-the-middle-east-what-obama-says-2290761.html

Bahrain signaled it won't allow anti-government protests when the nationwide state of emergency ends today.

The Ministry of Justice warned against "any type of activities that could affect security or harm the national peace and safety," in a statement Tuesday.

Activists and youth movements, mostly Shi'ites, are planning to hold rallies today in villages "against the government and troops in protest at violations of human rights," Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights said in an e-mailed statement.