a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

But doesn't the US have some leverage with countries that are more heavily involved with Syria?

what, like iran?

Nah, just the European Union that had been doing alot of economic related activity with Syria lately. I guess Assad could get by with just assistance and trade from Iran, China, and Lebanon.

At the risk of sounding like a neo-con though, isn't there some benefit though from Obama being seen at this point on the side of the protestors (I understand there are risks)even if the US doesn't have much of any influence

the US has made pretty clear public statements that they are officially on the side of the protestors

or would you prefer NATO airstrikes

maybe Obama can convince a Mossad assassination squad to take out Assad lol

A senior U.S. official later told VOA that the tougher State Department language is partly a response to a Syrian presidential adviser's recent claim that U.S. statements on Syria were "not too bad." The adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, made the comment in a New York Times interview published earlier this week

yeah I saw that. war of words.

I'm pretty sure no one actually thinks the US enthusiastically supports/supported Assad

you do realize that in the game of IPR what people ""actually think"" totally besides the point

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/world/middleeast/15prince.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Erik Prince and his Blackwater XE organization are now based in the United Arab Emirates and have been hired by the UAE to put together a force to put down protests and fight terrorists and other stuff---but they may be breaking US State Department rules in addition to rules of ethics and morality

Shakey:

Two administration officials said the U.S. is concerned about a prevailing perception that its response to Assad’s repression has been too soft, especially after helping usher long-time ally Hosni Mubarak out of power in Egypt and joining the international military coalition to shield civilians from attacks by Moammar Gadhafi’s forces in Libya.

From a May 10 AP wire story in the Washington Post

xp i think erik prince is fascinating. did you know he once called george clooney to suggest that blackwater "advise" in darfur.

also that he appears to be a full-on crusader. dark lol @ this buried line in the Telegraph story:

No Muslims have been recruited, for fear that they would be unwilling to kill fellow Muslims

dude is goal-oriented at least

Scary at most

Uh-oh...

From part of an article in the NY Times:
Tunisia Is Uneasy Over Party of Islamists
By SCOTT SAYARE
Published: May 15, 2011

since the dictator, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, fled in January, the Islamists of the once-banned Ennahda Party have emerged from obscurity, returned from abroad and established themselves as perhaps the most powerful political force in post-revolution Tunisia.

Despite repeated assurances of their tolerance and moderation, their rise has touched off frenzied rumors of attacks on unveiled women and artists, of bars and brothels sacked by party goons, of plots to turn the country into a caliphate. With crucial elections scheduled for July 24, Ennahda’s popularity and organizational strength are of growing concern to many activists and politicians, who worry that the secular revolution in this moderate state — the revolt that galvanized the Arab Spring — might see the birth of a conservative Islamic government.

And just as the protests in Tunis heralded the revolt in Cairo, analysts are looking to Tunisia as a bellwether for the more broadly influential developments to come in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys similar advantages and has stirred similar misgivings.

I maintain that it will be hard for Islamic fundie governments to get a toehold in places like this just because these are countries with HUGE under-30 populations and Islam is not really as high a priority with this particular generation, who vastly outnumber mullah lovers.

That seems logical but the secularist Tunisians quoted in that article seem afraid of being outvoted by Islamists, and I notice the same fear now in Egypt re the Muslim Brotherhood

I maintain that it will be hard for Islamic fundie governments to get a toehold in places like this just because these are countries with HUGE under-30 populations and Islam is not really as high a priority with this particular generation

i'm not sure about this. Iran has a comparably young population as well - and we all have a vague idea of what life is like over there for them. and it's not like seeing a (radical) minority dominate the majority is a rare occurrence in the region either.

^^^otm. it's not strictly a numbers game, its an organizational/$$$ game

But can't the secularists get organized, or are they split among too many different factions? The Islamic types might be already organized, but does that mean they have more numbers?

Also, in Egypt and Tunisia the fundamentalist Islamists are claiming they won't be like those in Iran, but everyone seems concerned. Does anyone know whether Turkey has a constitution that spells out any concepts re religious freedom and secular freedom and the role of religion in the political process? Isn't that what these countries need?

Meanwhile in Syria:

"I fear that dozens more casualties may be lying in nearby wheat fields and orchards because families have not been able to access the region which is encircled by security troops and snipers," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8516958/Syria-mass-grave-found-in-Deraa.html

Turkish gov't's secular nature is in their constitution iirc thx to Kamal Ataturk

and the Army

shakey turkey is a little more complicated now

active neutrality!

AP The United States on Monday accused Syria of inciting Palestinian unrest along the Israeli-held Golan Heights to divert attention from its violent crackdown on protests. The State Department called it a "cynical" ploy

US helicopters sold to Yemen's dictatorship

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/2011429181644559572.html

Also:

US President Barack Obama Tuesday meets Jordan's King Abdullah II, kicking off a week of intense Middle East diplomacy at a moment of deep pessimism over prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Obama will also meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week, make a big speech on the implications of Arab uprisings and speak to the powerful US Israel lobby on Sunday before heading off on a trip to Europe.

He's offering Jordan economic aid but I wonder if he encouraged the King to address the complaints of Jordanian protesters-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/jordan/8296589/King-Abdullah-II-of-Jordan-sacks-government-amid-street-protests.html

demanded the dismissal of Mr Rifai's government and a change in electoral law to allow the Jordanian people to vote for their prime minister, a position presently selected by royal appointment.

They also called for the dissolution of parliament, elected in a general election last November that was widely seen as heavily flawed.

Royal aides said the king has instructed his new government to reform the unpopular electoral law and insisted that he had met most of the protesters' demands by paving the way for Jordan's transformation from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy.

Juan Cole: The Arab Spring comes to Israel

http://www.juancole.com/2011/05/the-arab-spring-comes-to-israel.html

Israel won't give up on settlements, Hamas won't recognize Israel's right to exist, and nothing ever changes...

By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

AMMAN | Wed May 18, 2011 11:02am EDT

AMMAN (Reuters) - Tanks shelled a Syrian border town for the fourth day on Wednesday in a military campaign to crush demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad, under mounting Western pressure to stop repression of protest

...

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would respond to Syria's crackdown with additional steps in coming days if the government did not change course.

Will Obama refer to Syria in his big speech on Thursday?

http://www.solarnavigator.net/music/music_images/Steps_why_better_best_forgotten_album.jpg

Ha

sanctions imposted against Assad and 6 others

imposed too

Mr Cameron kept this quiet:

David Cameron is expected to discuss the Bahrain authorities' crackdown on protesters with the Gulf state's Crown Prince when he visits Downing Street.

Crown Prince Salman al-Khalifa's visit to London comes after he declined an invitation to the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton last month amid fears that protests against his presence might tarnish the event.

Bahrain was widely condemned for inviting neighbouring Saudi Arabia to send in troops to help put down protests against the ruling al-Khalifa dynasty.

On June 1 Bahrain is due to lift the martial law imposed in March following weeks of pro-democracy protests which resulted in the deaths of at least 29 people. Hundreds of people have been arrested and dozens put on trial in special courts.

Speaking ahead of the visit, Mr Cameron's official spokesman said: "I would expect them to discuss developments in the Middle East and north Africa, the Arab Spring, the Middle East peace process and the situation in Bahrain. Bahrain has been seeking to reform their political system in a number of ways, and that is something we welcome."

Asked at a regular daily press briefing in Westminster why Britain was welcoming the Crown Prince, when it had got involved in military action to prevent the repression of protesters in Libya, the spokesman said: "We said all along that the situation in different countries is different. There are different circumstances and we need to reflect that. Clearly, in all cases we would support reform and dialogue."

Human rights campaigner Peter Tatchell said: "It is a huge error of judgment to fete the Crown Prince of Bahrain at a time when his regime is arresting, jailing, torturing and killing peaceful democracy protesters.

"Britain should not be conducting business as usual with a tyranny that is guilty of gross human rights abuses.

"David Cameron should press the Bahraini authorities to lift the state of emergency immediately, halt the use of torture and release all political prisoners. Saudi Arabia and the UAE should be urged to withdraw their troops.

"If the duty to protect civilians applies in Libya, why not in Bahrain?"

barack obama speaking now, anyone listening? i just tuned in

(para) "there will be times when our short term interests will be different from our long-term vision" is this as close as he'll get to mentioning bahrain and yemen?

he just got applause for something, and i was typing that ^ out whoops

ha, i just tuned in & was like, surely if they applaud every generally positive platitude this is going to take a while

stuttering stanley, stuttering stanley

sorry

muslims, christians, we are one

intriguing

A senior administration official said that Mr. Obama’s advisers remained deeply divided over whether he should formally endorse Israel’s pre-1967 borders as the starting point for negotiations over a Palestinian state.

He did and that's the NY Times headline (I didn't hear the speech. Just reading the analysis at my lunch). He was critical of Bahrain as well as Syria and Hamas.

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/dynamic/00608/Pg-01-splashpic-epa_608273t.jpg

Neither the UK nor the US (Obama's speech) is making anyone happy in this region (well maybe the Saudi rulers)

From here at the heart of the Arab Spring to its current battlefronts in Damascus; Syria; and Benghazi, Libya, many said the speech had failed to dispel the legacy of resentment from America’s support for Arab autocrats, its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and its alliance with Israel. Many said Mr. Obama seemed most willing to support democratic revolts after the fact.

“They wait to see who wins and then support them,” said Ahmed Maher, 30, a civil engineer and an architect of the Egyptian uprising as coordinator of the liberal April 6 Youth Movement.

NY Times

Assad not listening to Obama:

As military crackdown continues, 23 people are killed one day after Obama delivers strongest rebuke yet.

look we have no leverage with Syria - whatever Obama says isn't going to change Assad's actions. these guys are insular, they're circling the wagons. the only real question is how far the military is willing to go in suppressing this (clearly pretty far), and whether things will erupt into full-scale military conflict (not likely). Outlook is not good, imho

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/syria-uprising-reform-bashar-al-assad

Details on Syria's failed economy. As another article said, Syria has not proven it can be like China (autocratic with a booming economy)!

Interesting quotes from a NY Times overview of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon:

“As Muslims, our sheiks are always telling us to be good to Christians, but we don’t think that is happening on the other side,” said Ibrahim Sakr, 56, a chemistry professor, who asserted that Copts, who make up about 10 percent of the population, still consider themselves “the original” Egyptians because their presence predates Islam.

In Libya, supporters of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi acknowledge that his government banks on fears of clan rivalries and possible partition to stay in power in a country with deep regional differences.

Officials say that the large extended clans of the west that contribute most of the soldiers to Colonel Qaddafi’s forces will never accept any revolution arising from the east, no matter what promises the rebels make about universal citizenship in a democratic Libya with its capital still in the western city of Tripoli.

The rebels say the revolution can forge a new identity.

“Qaddafi looks at Libya as west and east and north and south,” said Jadella Shalwee, a Libyan from Tobruk who visited Tahrir Square last weekend in a pilgrimage of sorts. “But this revolt has canceled all that. This is about a new beginning,” he said, contending that Colonel Qaddafi’s only supporters were “his cousins and his family.”

“My Alawite friends want me to support the regime, and they feel if it’s gone, our community will be finished,” said Mohsen, the young Alawite in Damascus, who asked that only his first name be used because he feared reprisal. “My Sunni friends want me to be against the regime, but I feel conflicted. We want freedom, but freedom with stability and security.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/world/middleeast/22arab.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

To retaliate for the European Union sanctions on Syria, Damascus will strengthen its relationship with Russia, China and Latin America, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mualiem said on Monday. Through this shift in diplomatic policies, Syria seeks to show to the EU and the U.S. that there are other global powers they could count on, Mualiem said

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/90049384?Syria%20to%20align%20with%20China%2C%20Russia%20in%20response%20to%20EU%20sanctions

That's what I thought would happen. Too bad.

Nighttime protests in Syria.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/05/syria-protesters-get-creative-as-night-demonstrations-wear-out-security-forces-.html