a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Oh and the UK, probably.

But I keep forgetting - the only alternative to this was to cheer on Gaddafi's tanks and airplanes as they massacred the people of Benghazi. D'oh!

No ideal choices. Too many Libyan deaths either way. The current approach still has a slim chance of being salveagable as Q has not yet finished off the rebels.

"Salvageable" meaning a barely veiled imperial carve-up that excludes Gaddafi's family but leaves everything else in place - gross inequality, no democratic institutions, corruption as a way of life, etc etc. - i.e. the defeat of the revolution.

We'll just have to wait and see

Wouldn't really be worth going to the bookies for that scenario TBH

the food here is terrible. and the portions, so small

It sort of IS that!

- i.e. the defeat of the revolution

Not if Gaddafi is gone.

Would you settle for a henchman to be named later?

without western imperialist intervention the revolution would have succeeded and the resultant regime would have been incorruptibly secular and democratic

Would you settle for a henchman to be named later?

― 40% chill and 100% negative (Tracer Hand), Monday, May 9, 2011 4:11 PM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark

i'd settle for an incoherent popular revolt that received some compromised outside support and was ultimately crushed.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/09/libya.hell.city/t1larg.burn.afp.gi.jpg

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/09/libya.hell.city/index.html?hpt=C1

i'd settle for an incoherent popular revolt that received some compromised outside support and was ultimately crushed.

Dreams really DO come true!

In the latest blow, UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee has scrubbed plans for Bahrain to host the cultural organization’s annual meeting in June.

“Now they will have it in Paris,” says the furious minister of culture, Sheikha Mai bint Mohammed al-Khalifa. “It’s unfair. Everything was on track, a thousand delegates, the first time it was to be held in the region.”

This comes after a major Formula One race was canceled and a renowned Lebanese composer and oud player, Marcel Khalife, pulled out of the annual Bahrain Spring of Culture series, most of which was canceled as the protests and killings continued into March.

Sheikha Mai’s anger, like that of many Sunnis associated with the government of King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, is intensely focused on the protesters.

“They don’t care about the image of Bahrain,” says the elegantly dressed member of the ruling family.

The nerve...

Meanwhile elsewhere:

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR NY Times
Published: May 10, 2011

Syria’s attempt to join the United Nations’ main human rights body will very likely be thwarted by Kuwait, which is planning to seek the Asian seat traditionally reserved for an Arab country, Western diplomats said Tuesday.

good on everybody cancelling their shit in Bahrain. country can't exist/function without outside largesse

Really, I thought they have lots of money

Another day and more deaths in Syria -- the US State Department is finally speaking out more directly because of a quote in the NY Times:

The U.S. State Department sharpened its criticism of the Syrian crackdown Wednesday, accusing Damascus of engaging in "barbaric" and "repressive" measures that amount to "collective punishment of innocent civilians."

Spokesman Mark Toner said the Syrian government needs to realize that the "window is narrowing" for it to change course toward "meeting the legitimate aspirations" of the Syrian people.

Syrian rights activists say the number of people killed across Syria in the anti-government uprising ranges from 600 to 700. There is no independent confirmation of casualty figures because Syria has banned most international journalists from the country.

A senior U.S. official later told VOA that the tougher State Department language is partly a response to a Syrian presidential adviser's recent claim that U.S. statements on Syria were "not too bad." The adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, made the comment in a New York Times interview published earlier this week.

x-post

wiki re Bahrain's economy

Unlike its Persian Gulf neighbours, Bahrain has little oil wealth and the economy has expanded into banking, heavy industries, retail and tourism. The Kingdom is the main banking hub for the Persian Gulf and a centre for Islamic finance, which has been attracted by the strong regulatory framework for the industry

Mr. Obama has ordered staff members to study transitions in 50 to 60 countries to find precedents for those under way in Tunisia and Egypt. They have found that Egypt is analogous to South Korea, the Philippines and Chile, while a revolution in Syria might end up looking like Romania’s.

This deliberate, almost scholarly, approach is in keeping with Mr. Obama’s style, one that has frustrated people who believe he is too slow and dispassionate

Mr. Obama’s personal experience, his aides say, has left him with a keen sense of the limits of the American role. In Syria, for example, the administration has imposed sanctions on a few senior members of the government, but not on President Bashar al-Assad. Nor has Mr. Obama called for Mr. Assad to step down, as he did with Colonel Qaddafi. Officials said they doubted that such a move would make any difference, given the weak leverage the United States has with Syria.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/us/politics/12prexy.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha22

But doesn't the US have some leverage with countries that are more heavily involved with Syria?

what, like iran?

Nah, just the European Union that had been doing alot of economic related activity with Syria lately. I guess Assad could get by with just assistance and trade from Iran, China, and Lebanon.

At the risk of sounding like a neo-con though, isn't there some benefit though from Obama being seen at this point on the side of the protestors (I understand there are risks)even if the US doesn't have much of any influence

the US has made pretty clear public statements that they are officially on the side of the protestors

or would you prefer NATO airstrikes

maybe Obama can convince a Mossad assassination squad to take out Assad lol

A senior U.S. official later told VOA that the tougher State Department language is partly a response to a Syrian presidential adviser's recent claim that U.S. statements on Syria were "not too bad." The adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, made the comment in a New York Times interview published earlier this week

yeah I saw that. war of words.

I'm pretty sure no one actually thinks the US enthusiastically supports/supported Assad

you do realize that in the game of IPR what people ""actually think"" totally besides the point

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/world/middleeast/15prince.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Erik Prince and his Blackwater XE organization are now based in the United Arab Emirates and have been hired by the UAE to put together a force to put down protests and fight terrorists and other stuff---but they may be breaking US State Department rules in addition to rules of ethics and morality

Shakey:

Two administration officials said the U.S. is concerned about a prevailing perception that its response to Assad’s repression has been too soft, especially after helping usher long-time ally Hosni Mubarak out of power in Egypt and joining the international military coalition to shield civilians from attacks by Moammar Gadhafi’s forces in Libya.

From a May 10 AP wire story in the Washington Post

xp i think erik prince is fascinating. did you know he once called george clooney to suggest that blackwater "advise" in darfur.

also that he appears to be a full-on crusader. dark lol @ this buried line in the Telegraph story:

No Muslims have been recruited, for fear that they would be unwilling to kill fellow Muslims

dude is goal-oriented at least

Scary at most

Uh-oh...

From part of an article in the NY Times:
Tunisia Is Uneasy Over Party of Islamists
By SCOTT SAYARE
Published: May 15, 2011

since the dictator, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, fled in January, the Islamists of the once-banned Ennahda Party have emerged from obscurity, returned from abroad and established themselves as perhaps the most powerful political force in post-revolution Tunisia.

Despite repeated assurances of their tolerance and moderation, their rise has touched off frenzied rumors of attacks on unveiled women and artists, of bars and brothels sacked by party goons, of plots to turn the country into a caliphate. With crucial elections scheduled for July 24, Ennahda’s popularity and organizational strength are of growing concern to many activists and politicians, who worry that the secular revolution in this moderate state — the revolt that galvanized the Arab Spring — might see the birth of a conservative Islamic government.

And just as the protests in Tunis heralded the revolt in Cairo, analysts are looking to Tunisia as a bellwether for the more broadly influential developments to come in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys similar advantages and has stirred similar misgivings.

I maintain that it will be hard for Islamic fundie governments to get a toehold in places like this just because these are countries with HUGE under-30 populations and Islam is not really as high a priority with this particular generation, who vastly outnumber mullah lovers.

That seems logical but the secularist Tunisians quoted in that article seem afraid of being outvoted by Islamists, and I notice the same fear now in Egypt re the Muslim Brotherhood

I maintain that it will be hard for Islamic fundie governments to get a toehold in places like this just because these are countries with HUGE under-30 populations and Islam is not really as high a priority with this particular generation

i'm not sure about this. Iran has a comparably young population as well - and we all have a vague idea of what life is like over there for them. and it's not like seeing a (radical) minority dominate the majority is a rare occurrence in the region either.

^^^otm. it's not strictly a numbers game, its an organizational/$$$ game

But can't the secularists get organized, or are they split among too many different factions? The Islamic types might be already organized, but does that mean they have more numbers?

Also, in Egypt and Tunisia the fundamentalist Islamists are claiming they won't be like those in Iran, but everyone seems concerned. Does anyone know whether Turkey has a constitution that spells out any concepts re religious freedom and secular freedom and the role of religion in the political process? Isn't that what these countries need?

Meanwhile in Syria:

"I fear that dozens more casualties may be lying in nearby wheat fields and orchards because families have not been able to access the region which is encircled by security troops and snipers," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8516958/Syria-mass-grave-found-in-Deraa.html

Turkish gov't's secular nature is in their constitution iirc thx to Kamal Ataturk

and the Army

shakey turkey is a little more complicated now

active neutrality!

AP The United States on Monday accused Syria of inciting Palestinian unrest along the Israeli-held Golan Heights to divert attention from its violent crackdown on protests. The State Department called it a "cynical" ploy

US helicopters sold to Yemen's dictatorship

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/2011429181644559572.html

Also:

US President Barack Obama Tuesday meets Jordan's King Abdullah II, kicking off a week of intense Middle East diplomacy at a moment of deep pessimism over prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Obama will also meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week, make a big speech on the implications of Arab uprisings and speak to the powerful US Israel lobby on Sunday before heading off on a trip to Europe.

He's offering Jordan economic aid but I wonder if he encouraged the King to address the complaints of Jordanian protesters-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/jordan/8296589/King-Abdullah-II-of-Jordan-sacks-government-amid-street-protests.html

demanded the dismissal of Mr Rifai's government and a change in electoral law to allow the Jordanian people to vote for their prime minister, a position presently selected by royal appointment.

They also called for the dissolution of parliament, elected in a general election last November that was widely seen as heavily flawed.

Royal aides said the king has instructed his new government to reform the unpopular electoral law and insisted that he had met most of the protesters' demands by paving the way for Jordan's transformation from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy.

Juan Cole: The Arab Spring comes to Israel

http://www.juancole.com/2011/05/the-arab-spring-comes-to-israel.html

Israel won't give up on settlements, Hamas won't recognize Israel's right to exist, and nothing ever changes...