a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Sorry folks, you're on your own, we're too busy with Bin Laden details to care about the unfinished Arab spring.

Assad, an Alawite, sent army and secret police units dominated by officers from the same minority sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, into mainly Sunni urban centers to crush demonstrations calling for his removal for the last six weeks.

...

Reports say that Sunni conscripts, Syria's majority sect, refused to fire at their co-religionists.

From Reuters

Red Cross and other NGOs want to get into Syria but for now Assad's busy emulating his Dad

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/04/deraa-syria-assad

the entire Syrian military bureaucracy has been Alawite since French colonial rule (putting the shunned Alawis in charge of the military was part of France's divide-and-rule strategy)

The EU is still taking their time re Syria:

(Reuters) - The European Union may reach preliminary agreement on imposing sanctions on Syria's leadership on Friday, but have yet to decide whether President Bashar al-Assad should be included, diplomats said.

EU member states agreed in principle last week to impose an arms embargo on Syria following the government's crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators, but discussions are still going on over whether to target specific individuals with asset freezes, travel bans or other similar steps.

It would have been nice if there had been immediate pressure on Assad from the rest of the world, not just this token talk and we'll think about sanctions maybe stuff

Flying Carpet of Middle East Protests (Guardian interactive)

The flying carpet is barely aloft this week

Al Jazeera re Bahrain:

Nearly 1,000 demonstrators have been imprisoned, among them doctors, artists and lawyers.

The UN High Commissioner for Human rights Navi Pillay says severe torture is being used against prisoners, and he is calling on the Bahraini government to stop intimidating and harassing human rights defenders and political activists

Plus it's another Friday with protests in Syria, and the EU getting closer to sanctions against certain Syrian officials (not Assad) but not yet implementing them.

The ugly brutality in Syria continues:

(Reuters) - President Bashar al-Assad has sent tanks deep into Syria's third city Homs, escalating a military campaign to crush a seven-week-old uprising against his autocratic rule.

Syrians demanding political freedom and an end to corruption have held weeks of what they say are peaceful demonstrations in the face of government repression, despite a civilian death toll that has reached 800, according to the Syrian human rights organization Sawasiah.

On Sunday, Homs residents told Reuters they heard machinegun fire and shelling as troops made their first incursion into residential areas of the city of one million people, 165 km (100 miles) north of Damascus.

At least one person, a 12-year-old child, was killed when tanks...

The news is bad in Bahrain and Yemen also:

By Roy Gutman

McClatchy Newspapers

MANAMA, Bahrain — Empowered by a 6-week-old state of emergency, the Sunni minority government of Bahrain has arrested scores of Shiite women teachers and schoolgirls, held them for days in prison and subjected them to physical and verbal abuse, according to victims, human-rights advocates and a former member of parliament

Bahrain's king said on Sunday a state of emergency, imposed in March after Saudi-led troops arrived to help crush protests, would be lifted on June 1, two weeks before it expires.

That would be two days before a deadline set by Formula One organizers for Bahrain to decide whether to reschedule a Grand Prix it was to have hosted on March 13.

typical

priorities

Could be that we will soon return to a situation where these countries are treated like China(authoritarian dictatorships that have supressed revolts and that we can't change and that our governments and media establishments insist will open up if we do business with them economically)

I have to wonder if that would be any worse than the "help" we're giving the Libyan resistance.

Yes. The Libyans would have been crushed completely now if not for the assistance they have received. Unless you're suggesting that if Q had quickly killed folks and everyone backed down (because they received no assistance), that more Libyans would be alive now, albeit under Q's control. Iranians seeking freedom, like the Chinese, are locked up but mostly not killed too, I guess.

Whereas this way the Libyans get to be crushed slowly and incompletely, a few women and kids at a time, as cities are indiscriminately mortared, lost, retaken, etc etc for who knows how long. And at the end of this dark and horrific tunnel, the prospect of a settlement negotiated by France, Italy and the United States.

Oh and the UK, probably.

But I keep forgetting - the only alternative to this was to cheer on Gaddafi's tanks and airplanes as they massacred the people of Benghazi. D'oh!

No ideal choices. Too many Libyan deaths either way. The current approach still has a slim chance of being salveagable as Q has not yet finished off the rebels.

"Salvageable" meaning a barely veiled imperial carve-up that excludes Gaddafi's family but leaves everything else in place - gross inequality, no democratic institutions, corruption as a way of life, etc etc. - i.e. the defeat of the revolution.

We'll just have to wait and see

Wouldn't really be worth going to the bookies for that scenario TBH

the food here is terrible. and the portions, so small

It sort of IS that!

- i.e. the defeat of the revolution

Not if Gaddafi is gone.

Would you settle for a henchman to be named later?

without western imperialist intervention the revolution would have succeeded and the resultant regime would have been incorruptibly secular and democratic

Would you settle for a henchman to be named later?

― 40% chill and 100% negative (Tracer Hand), Monday, May 9, 2011 4:11 PM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark

i'd settle for an incoherent popular revolt that received some compromised outside support and was ultimately crushed.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/09/libya.hell.city/t1larg.burn.afp.gi.jpg

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/09/libya.hell.city/index.html?hpt=C1

i'd settle for an incoherent popular revolt that received some compromised outside support and was ultimately crushed.

Dreams really DO come true!

In the latest blow, UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee has scrubbed plans for Bahrain to host the cultural organization’s annual meeting in June.

“Now they will have it in Paris,” says the furious minister of culture, Sheikha Mai bint Mohammed al-Khalifa. “It’s unfair. Everything was on track, a thousand delegates, the first time it was to be held in the region.”

This comes after a major Formula One race was canceled and a renowned Lebanese composer and oud player, Marcel Khalife, pulled out of the annual Bahrain Spring of Culture series, most of which was canceled as the protests and killings continued into March.

Sheikha Mai’s anger, like that of many Sunnis associated with the government of King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, is intensely focused on the protesters.

“They don’t care about the image of Bahrain,” says the elegantly dressed member of the ruling family.

The nerve...

Meanwhile elsewhere:

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR NY Times
Published: May 10, 2011

Syria’s attempt to join the United Nations’ main human rights body will very likely be thwarted by Kuwait, which is planning to seek the Asian seat traditionally reserved for an Arab country, Western diplomats said Tuesday.

good on everybody cancelling their shit in Bahrain. country can't exist/function without outside largesse

Really, I thought they have lots of money

Another day and more deaths in Syria -- the US State Department is finally speaking out more directly because of a quote in the NY Times:

The U.S. State Department sharpened its criticism of the Syrian crackdown Wednesday, accusing Damascus of engaging in "barbaric" and "repressive" measures that amount to "collective punishment of innocent civilians."

Spokesman Mark Toner said the Syrian government needs to realize that the "window is narrowing" for it to change course toward "meeting the legitimate aspirations" of the Syrian people.

Syrian rights activists say the number of people killed across Syria in the anti-government uprising ranges from 600 to 700. There is no independent confirmation of casualty figures because Syria has banned most international journalists from the country.

A senior U.S. official later told VOA that the tougher State Department language is partly a response to a Syrian presidential adviser's recent claim that U.S. statements on Syria were "not too bad." The adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, made the comment in a New York Times interview published earlier this week.

x-post

wiki re Bahrain's economy

Unlike its Persian Gulf neighbours, Bahrain has little oil wealth and the economy has expanded into banking, heavy industries, retail and tourism. The Kingdom is the main banking hub for the Persian Gulf and a centre for Islamic finance, which has been attracted by the strong regulatory framework for the industry

Mr. Obama has ordered staff members to study transitions in 50 to 60 countries to find precedents for those under way in Tunisia and Egypt. They have found that Egypt is analogous to South Korea, the Philippines and Chile, while a revolution in Syria might end up looking like Romania’s.

This deliberate, almost scholarly, approach is in keeping with Mr. Obama’s style, one that has frustrated people who believe he is too slow and dispassionate

Mr. Obama’s personal experience, his aides say, has left him with a keen sense of the limits of the American role. In Syria, for example, the administration has imposed sanctions on a few senior members of the government, but not on President Bashar al-Assad. Nor has Mr. Obama called for Mr. Assad to step down, as he did with Colonel Qaddafi. Officials said they doubted that such a move would make any difference, given the weak leverage the United States has with Syria.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/us/politics/12prexy.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha22

But doesn't the US have some leverage with countries that are more heavily involved with Syria?

what, like iran?

Nah, just the European Union that had been doing alot of economic related activity with Syria lately. I guess Assad could get by with just assistance and trade from Iran, China, and Lebanon.

At the risk of sounding like a neo-con though, isn't there some benefit though from Obama being seen at this point on the side of the protestors (I understand there are risks)even if the US doesn't have much of any influence

the US has made pretty clear public statements that they are officially on the side of the protestors

or would you prefer NATO airstrikes

maybe Obama can convince a Mossad assassination squad to take out Assad lol

A senior U.S. official later told VOA that the tougher State Department language is partly a response to a Syrian presidential adviser's recent claim that U.S. statements on Syria were "not too bad." The adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban, made the comment in a New York Times interview published earlier this week

yeah I saw that. war of words.

I'm pretty sure no one actually thinks the US enthusiastically supports/supported Assad

you do realize that in the game of IPR what people ""actually think"" totally besides the point

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/world/middleeast/15prince.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Erik Prince and his Blackwater XE organization are now based in the United Arab Emirates and have been hired by the UAE to put together a force to put down protests and fight terrorists and other stuff---but they may be breaking US State Department rules in addition to rules of ethics and morality