Canadian Politics Thread

Yep, both of them are still behind.

Elizabeth May is currently in the lead but still a lot of polls to come in.

Bev Oda destroys in her riding; in other news, at least 30,000 Canadians are fucking assholes.

Ignatieff saying "We should be proud of our role in triggering that desire for change..." I'm not sure if he's really thought that statement through.

damn this suxxx

xpost LOL

The NDP should still rue the day they took down the Martin Liberals, that was still the only time in their history that they wielded any real federal power.

some of the north toronto ridings that went conservative have been liberal since 93 or earlier... wonder how much is centre-right liberals wanting to avoid an NDP led gov't? i mean these ridings have most of the wealthiest nabes in the country...

Ignatieff is in the middle of a 30-minute infomercial on why his party was just wiped out.

"i did a terrible job, but i don't really want to quit"

don't you pretty much have to quit if you can't even hold on to your own seat

Gilles Duceppe speech coming up. Gonna be interesting to hear his take on all this.

Looks like Elizabeth May is going to win her riding!

Yeah that's one of the few cool things happening tonight

The NDP should still rue the day they took down the Martin Liberals, that was still the only time in their history that they wielded any real federal power.

WTF? The most power they ever wielded federally was surely during Pearson's two minorities and Trudeau's 1972-1974 minority government.

During our lifetimes at least. You're right about the Pearson/Douglas years.

Duceppe just announced he's quitting

(And how long were you expecting the Martin Liberals to stay in power in any case, B@rry?)

Are you serious about Justin Trudeau, clemenza? He seems fairly devoid of accomplishments or new ideas to me.

OK, sorry if my tone is bitchy. I just got back from working 14h at a polling station on 3h of sleep and too much caffeine.

So: Right off the bat, part of me wants to say WTF to Ontario and especially the GTA. I mean, for real. At the same time, it's been pretty hard for anyone to get excited about the LPC for a while now. So, while I dread a CPC majority as much as the next guy, there is actually some good news in all of this. Honestly, a stint in Official Opposition would be good for an NDP that did not set out planning to govern, especially if half their caucus consists of rookie MPs from Quebec, many of whom were basically chosen to be sacrificial lambs at the outset of the campaign. I think they could be an effective Opposition party and actually gain some experience as a caucus, while developing a serious plan for when they actually attempt to win government. As well, I have no trouble saying that I welcome the decimation of the BQ, especially now that Duceppe has been stressing its more nationalist aspects. This is the first time in nearly two decades that Quebec has fully thrown itself behind a federalist party (or even behind federalist parties), which I think is good news for anyone who believes in the country. We'll have to see how the NDP's Quebec caucus turns out. (Hopefully we don't get a redux of Mulroney's Quebec caucus!) I have a feeling that Layton and Mulcair are strong enough to maintain control. Plus, it seems that they could actually make the convincing case that Quebec's social democratic, pro-union culture is in line with the NDP's broader vision for the country, which was never the sort of thing Mulroney could do. (He just promised to decentralize the country further iirc.)

2xpost OK, we're on the same page then, B@rry. But do you really think these results are unpromising for the NDP??

Half-kidding about Justin. I was such a fan of his father, there's always that hope. But no, I haven't followed him that closely.

Elizabeth May now declared elected!

Quebec is gonna be a weird place I reckon moving forward. The two big parties are a federalist centrist party, and a separatist neocon party -- so these new NDP voters are basically now completely unrepresented in both federal AND their own provincial governments.

a separatist neocon party

This is not the PQ, right? Or have they really changed?

What do you think we can expect in the next 4-5 years? Obvious shit: More military spending, more spending on prisons and tough-on-crime legislation, an ideological approach to foreign aid, more shit like targeting research grants to business-oriented projects, maybe some misery for the CBC. Probably this security perimeter bullshit?

Looking forward to seeing May in the next round of debates.

So: Right off the bat, part of me wants to say WTF to Ontario and especially the GTA.

And yet it was totally predictable that centrist GTA voters would shift to the right if they had to choose.

Also, I think we can expect that the country will be polarized into two large camps that can barely speak to each other.

2xpost Yeah, totally, NTBT.

CBC reports Ignatieff has officially lost in his riding.

The NDP's position is pretty precarious IMO ... they can't and won't make inroads in Ontario anytime soon, they're the "Quebec" party despite having zero experience there and Quebecers change their political preferences like they change their socks so expect a swift backlash, and Layton risks alienating his base if he tries to woo more Liberal voters.

Also, I think we can expect that the country will be polarized into two large camps that can barely speak to each other.

Hello, U.S.A.

Adieu libertés des femmes et des gais, culture, environnement, registre des armes à feu...
Bonjour guerre, pollution, fausse valeurs chrétiennes, et coupures d'impôt aux grandes entreprises...
On croirait qu'on vient de déménager aux États-Unis d'il y a 2 ans :-(

(Or at least, Hello Clinton-Bush-Obamaland.)

This is not the PQ, right? Or have they really changed?

I am a complete moron

I thought the ADQ had way more seats than they did

Hello, U.S.A.

(I was leaving that implication unspoken but yeah.:P )

Layton: "you voted to end the old debates in parliament" ... well, there won't be any meaningful debates over legislation in parliament for a while so I guess he's right

Funniest new MP: Ruth Ellen Brosseau (NDP) in Berthier-Maskinongé. Guess she'll have to quit her job at that pub on the Carleton campus and pick up the Rosetta Stone French set.

Anyone else have a feeling the Cons somehow had something to do with the NDP gains?

How do you mean?

Actually working on behalf of NDP candidates. Nothing would surprise me.

I don't follow, Bryan, although I am admittedly exhausted. Why would it help the CPC for the NDP to win so many seats in QC? And in BC, they were the CPC's main competition. I haven't seen that much yet to suggest that Lib/NDP 'vote splitting' was a factor, if that's what you're getting at.

This is OTM but I'm trying to be optimistic?:

The NDP's position is pretty precarious IMO ... they can't and won't make inroads in Ontario anytime soon, they're the "Quebec" party despite having zero experience there and Quebecers change their political preferences like they change their socks so expect a swift backlash, and Layton risks alienating his base if he tries to woo more Liberal voters.

so i guess the NDP is now Quebec's bitch?

Why would it help the CPC for the NDP to win so many seats in QC?

Unless you're saying that the CPC wanted inexperienced NDP candidates to win in order to try to make the NDP look bad in the long run?

tat was a well timed xposty

xpost

Vote splitting was part of it, likely a large part, but encouraging the election of weak NDP candidates in a province where they weren't likely to get any/many seats doesn't seem completely unrealistic.

(yes, I know it sounds like a reach)

well there are ridings here in toronto where ndp-liberal vote splitting seems to have allowed the cons to snag the seat although i dont really think the cpc had much to do w/ that

also i really do wonder how much the polls showing a strong ndp showing had to do w/ the liberal ridings in north toronto and the 905 going conservative. although i was watching 'the agenda' a couple of weeks ago & one of the panelists was saying that conservatives had really reached out to immigrant communities offering to recognize foreign credentials and other stuff - feel like that wouldve done a lot to push those ridings blue...

ya. i still think the massage parlour smear came from the cons. the NDP nabbed seats from them all over the map.

xpost

I'm far too influenced by some of the stories my cousin, who serves as an aide to P3t3r M4cKay has told me about the strategies they've employed. Some analysis of the leanings of the Conservatives who lost their seats tonight would be helpful. Some pruning to make the tree stronger? We'll see.

You guys have been observing the same Liberal campaign I have, right? They didn't need any opposing party to help them collapse. There are some Liberal voters who would swing NDP before they'd think of voting Conservative but there are also some who'd swing to the Conservatives before they'd consider the NDP. I suspect the latter are more common in the suburban GTA (and yes, the Cons' 'ethnic strategy' has been well-publicized...) That said, I'm mostly going by impressions and not hard data or anything.

I thought the ADQ had way more seats than they did

And yeah, my fear is basically that the NDP will go the way of the ADQ in QC.

Polarization will hurt the left more than it helps, at least in the short term. As long as the CPC can play centre-right to 905 and Ontario in general, they'll have both national papers, Global and CTV on their side. Bay Street and elite class Central Canada are going to hesitate for a long time before putting the NDP in charge of the country. I think that's one of the big stories tonight, Lib->PC swing voters (in the suburbs mostly?) gave Harper his majority.

The good news is that that consolidation of the Conservatives' power will come at the expense of some of the nativist western evangelical ideals the Reform Party / Alliance was built on. It's a long way from Western alienation and secession to building a majority on the votes of the 905.

wau

The NDP vote in Quebec isn't an endorsement of federalism, just a desire for change. With a Conservative majority government for the foreseeable future and the PQ the likely winner of the next Quebec provincial election, I wouldn't e surprised to see much stronger nationalism in the province and a successful referendum by 2020.

You mean "successful" as in "over 50% vote 'Oui' and Quebec becomes an independent country"? Or just that the PQ will be successful in being able to hold another referendum?