Canadian Politics Thread

Ekos has 2.8% between the CPC and NDP in their final report:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/hold-on-to-your-hats-campaign-41-drawing-to-a-heart-stopping-conclusion-may-1-2011/

Oh my bad, that was the same Ekos poll from before, sry.

(ps is there some reason i am missing in my ignorance that the ndp/libs/greens are not forming a coalition govt?)

Prior to the election, the LPC and NDP held fewer seats than the CPC even when put together. The Greens held no seats in Parliament. Despite this, a coalition nearly happened in 2008 with the BQ's support: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Canadian_parliamentary_dispute#The_Governor_General_prorogues_parliament
However, the GG granted Harper's request to prorogue Parliament and avert this threat on the condition that he would produce a budget that would be acceptable to the Opposition (basically, one that included stimulus measures).

Depending on how this election plays out, we may see a coalition.

also i had no idea the ndp was such a power

It's the first time in history that they've been a serious contender for Government (or really, even Official Opposition).

these latest polls are madness. i just can't bring myself to believe the dippers will do aswell as some forecasts are saying.

wow xposts

Link for the Parliamentary dispute article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Canadian_parliamentary_dispute

xpost Yeah, I'm still expecting to pinch myself and wake up.

Broadbent got close in '88 (i think). people thought he could - possibly - be the next PM, but the NDP vote collapsed.

xpost

i mean - it looks like Layton will easily blow Broadbent's seat total out of the water. i could even see them as the official opposition - but if they win more seats than the Libs have now i will personally buy a cigar for every person in the city. i just don't think that will happen.
this year.

i'm actually worried the Cons still have a decent chance at a majority. (albeit a crummy one)

Me too.

OK, real final EKOS results: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/our-final-words-and-a-few-more-numbers-may-1-2011/

guys osama bin laden is dead so i'm sure that . . . uh, go canucks?

what?

layton killed bin laden!!!

in the massage parlour with a candle.

This couldn't possibly affect a single vote one way or the other, right?

lol - was wonderin that. could help Cons?

maybe we'll all feel so secure that voting will seem unimportant

could help Cons?

Man... Do you think?... I hope not.

Like, if QC has been shifting NDP because of Afghanistan, maybe this could make the war seem more worthwhile...?

i noticed Harper lead off his address earlier en français.

so i guess he thinks so.

The election is lost you guys. Conservative voters will be patriotically energized by the killing of Bin Laden and will vote in droves, while liberal voters will be too busy writing lolBush comments on political blogs. First act of the new majority CPC parliament: extend the Afghan mission until the age of Buck Rogers.

layton killed bin laden!!!
― dblake (symsymsym), Monday, 2 May 2011 04:08 (7 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

in the massage parlour with a candle.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 2 May 2011 04:10 (7 hours ago) Bookmark

lol

also, aww:

http://www.google.ca/logos/2011/canadaelections11-hp.png

A more optimistic reading: a door is closed on a certain corner of history, one that Harper is associated with, and it redounds against him. Wishful thinking, I know. Truthfully, I don't think the events of last night will have any effect at all.

I understand the frustration NoTime expressed towards the Star above. I feel very much like a bandwagon-jumper myself today.

voted already last Monday, don't feel great about it though. our lib guy (Peters) is very young, but at least he showed up to the local debate.

I'm not saying that individual people shouldn't change their minds or jump on bandwagons and stuff, but it's irresponsible for the media to do it.

Curious as to why that would be any more irresponsible when it's becoming more and more clear that their original position was untenable? Should they really have to go down with the ship and try to convince everyone else to do the same?

Conservative voters will be patriotically energized by the killing of Bin Laden and will vote in droves

Hoping they all cast write-in votes for Obama!

(Still undecided myself - was considering Green, but now leaning towards NDP. Thank you, Sun Media.)

should prolly depend on where your riding is. i think we're all about the strategic voting around these parts!

Sean - they never said their original position was untenable! Their reasoning was "the guy we originally picked isn't going to win, so we're supporting someone else now".

I mean, is there another way to interpret "until 10 days ago, (voters) had only one realistic alternative to the Conservatives — the Liberal party under Michael Ignatieff. Today, that is no longer the case." What changed ten days ago? The party platforms? Election issues? No, ten days ago the NDP passed the Liberals in the polls.

I found that Star editorial from a couple of years ago supporting Harper harder to get my head around than their support of Layton this time. (I don't read the Star. They've had some pretty bad pop-music writers over the years, beginning with Peter Goddard.)

their baseball writer(s) also functionally retarded aswell.

Ben Rayner is a great music writer. Their baseball writers are comically bad though (except Dave Perkins).

Barry, in the end it seems like ultimately their position is more "make sure Harper doesn't get a majority", then. I'm not gonna argue too much about their intentions as I haven't been religiously reading the Star anyhow. So I'm mostly just playing devil's advocate here!

(Basically I just buy the Star on Saturdays and that's just to get the comics and crossword. :)

it's raining in vancouver...that helps the cons, right? will depress young voter turnout?

Ben Rayner is a great music writer.

Hmmmm...I'd have to read him regularly. I have pretty strong opinions in that area; my guess is I'd disagree. Let me put it this way--if he's at all out of the Tim Perlich school of pop-music criticism, I'll take a pass.

Raining in Montreal too but about to head out and vote.

Went out earlier here in Mtl - poll workers here at Westmount-Ville Marie exceedingly polite.

People in Guelph receiving phone calls saying that their polling office has been moved :S Dirty, dirty..

Harper is campaigning today in ABBOTsford, B.C. and Bin Laden was killed today in ABBOTTabad ... coincidence?? What can this mean??

Pretty funny: the government is going to prosecute people who Tweet or otherwise social-network early returns tonight. That's a very wise and simple battle to take up.

Yeah, Harper, good job urging people to vote Conservative on the radio today, even though it's completely illegal to do so:

http://www.examiner.com/canada-headlines-in-canada/stephen-harper-breaks-election-rules-campaigns-on-radio-on-election-day

Maybe we should push for this particular punishment:

with respect to certain offences, the deregistration of a party and liquidation of its assets, and the liquidation of the assets of the party's registered associations

Harper didn't break any rules. the examiner and elections canada are just liberal-biased socialist institutions. that is all. didn't Layton break a law once? but we're not hearing about that today are we? i rest my case.

did the good guys or bad guys win?

Won't know the end(-ish) results for another few hours, probably. Our polls in Toronto don't even close for another hour. I think it's an hour past that that BC polls close...?

Heard a bit this morning about the Twitter law...illegal to post any results until after final polls close, but the only way you'd get charged for contravening the law would be to have a complaint lodged against you...and even then it's not certain you'd face legal action, because in some cases the audience would be so small it'd be hard to make a case that leaking the results to your followers had any influence on the outcome at all.

so does anyone want to take a guess at what result we'll see?

But if you really want a head start on this apparently you can see info on Twitter with hashtag #tweettheresults (the site tweettheresults.ca, which was supposed to be aggregating this, got leaned on to stop).