a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

I guess the closer you get to Israel/Palestine the more chaotic the effects of intervention become? This isn't to blame the Israelis or Palestinians, just that regions have a nucleus, and Libya was possible because it was so far away, or uninvolved.

But Assad, a member of Syria's Alawite minority, retains some support, especially among co-religionists who dominate the army and secret police and could lose preferential treatment if majority Sunni Syria was to transform into a democracy.

An alliance between the ruling minority and the Sunni merchant class, forged by the elder Assad through a blend of coercion and the granting of privileges, still holds, robbing protesters of financial backing and a foothold in the old bazaars of Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's second city. Reuters story linked to by tpm

Some 200 members of Syria's ruling Baath party are reported to have resigned over the violent crackdown against pro-democracy demonstrations.

nice

Russia, China and Lebanon are blocking a proposed UN investigation into Syria's actions

Bahrain's crown prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa regretfully declined his invitation to the wedding of England's Prince William and Kate Middleton.

Meanwhile Bahrain's government is putting protestors on trial in secret.

Speaking of which:

"Things can change in a couple of weeks ... so you don't know," said Ecclestone. "All of a sudden everything might be peaceful in a month's time and they are happy to run the event and so we are happy to be there."

Massive protests erupted across Syria on Friday, most significantly in the heart of the capital, Damascus, despite an intensified government crackdown over the past week that sought to put a stop to the anti-government movement.

The Damascene suburbs of Saqba also witnessed huge marches, with protesters chanting "The people want to bring down the regime" and "This is a youth revolution, we're not thugs or terrorists."

Pretty courageous

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/04/syria-protests-video.html

wow.

Dozens of people have been shot dead by Syrian security forces, activists claim, as tens of thousands took to the streets in anti-government rallies dubbed a "day of rage".

Activists said at least 50 protesters were killed on Friday, although Al Jazeera cannot independently verify the death tolls.

Thousands of Bahraini Shia have gathered before a revered cleric to denounce death sentences given to protesters over anti-government rallies crushed last month in the Gulf kingdom.

The verdict, handed down by a military court a day earlier to four men accused of killing two policemen in violent protests last month, could intensify sectarian tension in the Sunni Muslim-ruled state that hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.

"It's not true that they killed them," a man who identified himself only as Moussa said, after praying at the mosque of Sheikh Issa Qassim, as a police helicopter circled overhead.

"The government made it up just like a movie."

He was referring to video footage that Bahraini authorities have circulated showing the two policemen smashed by a vehicle that sped through a crowd of protesters, some of whom appeared to then trample and kick the fallen men.

Syrian soldiers stormed a rebel-held mosque Saturday, killing four people including the imam's son, witnesses reported.

The 90-minute massacre in the popular Omari mosque was a new low-point in the bloody six-week uprising that, according to the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, has left more than 535 dead.

The predawn attack on Daraa, home of the mosque, involved four tanks, 20 armored vehicles and heavily armed troops, according to residents.

The southern city has been without electricity, water and phone service since Monday, when the government sent in tanks to destroy demonstrations.

Seems to me like the Syrian Army has Assad's back. The best hope for the protestors would be a highly successful general strike sort of action, proving that the country is united against Assad, and further intransigence from him will shut down the whole country's economy.

But Assad, a member of Syria's Alawite minority, retains some support, especially among co-religionists who dominate the army and secret police and could lose preferential treatment if majority Sunni Syria was to transform into a democracy.

An alliance between the ruling minority and the Sunni merchant class, forged by the elder Assad through a blend of coercion and the granting of privileges, still holds, robbing protesters of financial backing and a foothold in the old bazaars of Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's second city. Reuters story linked to by tpm

― curmudgeon, Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NY Times article from last week re Syria with some interesting points:

Syrian leaders tend to keep their money in European and Middle Eastern banks, putting it beyond the reach of the Treasury.

Disarray in Syria could threaten Israel’s security more directly. While Israeli officials point out that Mr. Assad has hardly been a friend of Israel, if he were replaced by a militant Sunni government, this could pose even greater dangers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/world/middleeast/30policy.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

Ca we dream that in a post-Bin Laden world, more attention will be placed on supporting democracy and on the Israeli/Palestinian issues (albeit that the above mentioned items in prior posts will still complicate things as will Iran and the Taliban)

VOA News on the sad Yemen situation:

Unrest has left one demonstrator dead in Yemen's south after the unraveling of a deal that would have eased Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh out of power.

Officials say the army opened fired on protesters in the port city of Aden Monday, killing one demonstrator.

These Iranian comments on Bahrain are always amusing:

Iran's foreign minister warned Monday of "bad repercussions" from the situation in Bahrain where authorities are accused of oppressing the Shiite majority after crushing a month-old protest.

Ali Akbar Salehi also renewed Tehran's strong criticism of Gulf countries for sending troops to tiny Bahrain, boosting Bahraini security forces in their crackdown on the Shiites who led the pro-democracy uprising.

"We are sure that if the status quo persist in Bahrain, it will have bad repercussions on the region that no one would like," Salehi told reporters in Doha following talks with the Qatari leadership.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hwx88O7c9HxwNzQx4Raqeh4Romzg?docId=CNG.4ec0d644f5638e40f182b6d39cbee4b3.631

Not looking good for the people of Syria, Bahrain, or Yemen. And not so good for Libyans either (see other thread).

A free, fair and independent Press is the main pillar of democratic evolution, a fundamental human right and an active partner in safeguarding the nation's security and stability, His Majesty King Hamad of Bahrain said last night.

Freedom of the Press is at the heart of Bahrain's reforms project, he said in a statement marking World Press Freedom Day, celebrated today.

He expressed his deep appreciation and pride of Bahrainis working as journalists, including those in the Information Affairs Authority, for doing their duty during the recent crisis with utmost sincerity and patriotism.

He stressed that media should not be used as a means to incite violence, vandalism and terrorism, instead it should respect professional ethics.

He expressed confidence that the Bahraini Press family will adhere to principles of the Constitution and the National Action Charter, address national issues with objectivity and reject sectarian divisions.

Freedom of the Press and the media will always be the identity of the comprehensive reforms project and modernisation, His Majesty vowed.

The board of Bahrain's Al Wasat newspaper has decided to close down the daily from Sunday, it was revealed last night.

The move follows reports of enormous revenue losses over the last month, with no sign of improvement, said a report in the Gulf Daily News.

According to a reliable source within the newspaper, some shareholders recommended a three-month waiting period in case market trends changed. However, “the radical wing of the board insisted a closure as they were not prepared to suffer more losses."

Sad.

So Glenn Greenwald had a column quoting polls showing that folks in Egypt (and maybe elsewhere) were still disappointed in the US because of the handling of the Israeli/Palestinian issue and because of support for dictators. It would be nice to see Obama focussing on those difficult issues now (I recognize the tightrope walking entailed and all the complications).

BEIRUT — Syrian authorities have arrested more than 1,000 people and many more have been reported missing in the latest sweep aimed at crushing the uprising against President Bashar Assad, a human rights group said Tuesday.

Ammar Qurabi, who heads the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria, said the 1,000 detentions were made since Saturday in house-to-house raids across the country.

"The arrests have transformed Syria into a large prison," Qurabi told The Associated Press

Sorry folks, you're on your own, we're too busy with Bin Laden details to care about the unfinished Arab spring.

Assad, an Alawite, sent army and secret police units dominated by officers from the same minority sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, into mainly Sunni urban centers to crush demonstrations calling for his removal for the last six weeks.

...

Reports say that Sunni conscripts, Syria's majority sect, refused to fire at their co-religionists.

From Reuters

Red Cross and other NGOs want to get into Syria but for now Assad's busy emulating his Dad

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/04/deraa-syria-assad

the entire Syrian military bureaucracy has been Alawite since French colonial rule (putting the shunned Alawis in charge of the military was part of France's divide-and-rule strategy)

The EU is still taking their time re Syria:

(Reuters) - The European Union may reach preliminary agreement on imposing sanctions on Syria's leadership on Friday, but have yet to decide whether President Bashar al-Assad should be included, diplomats said.

EU member states agreed in principle last week to impose an arms embargo on Syria following the government's crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators, but discussions are still going on over whether to target specific individuals with asset freezes, travel bans or other similar steps.

It would have been nice if there had been immediate pressure on Assad from the rest of the world, not just this token talk and we'll think about sanctions maybe stuff

Flying Carpet of Middle East Protests (Guardian interactive)

The flying carpet is barely aloft this week

Al Jazeera re Bahrain:

Nearly 1,000 demonstrators have been imprisoned, among them doctors, artists and lawyers.

The UN High Commissioner for Human rights Navi Pillay says severe torture is being used against prisoners, and he is calling on the Bahraini government to stop intimidating and harassing human rights defenders and political activists

Plus it's another Friday with protests in Syria, and the EU getting closer to sanctions against certain Syrian officials (not Assad) but not yet implementing them.

The ugly brutality in Syria continues:

(Reuters) - President Bashar al-Assad has sent tanks deep into Syria's third city Homs, escalating a military campaign to crush a seven-week-old uprising against his autocratic rule.

Syrians demanding political freedom and an end to corruption have held weeks of what they say are peaceful demonstrations in the face of government repression, despite a civilian death toll that has reached 800, according to the Syrian human rights organization Sawasiah.

On Sunday, Homs residents told Reuters they heard machinegun fire and shelling as troops made their first incursion into residential areas of the city of one million people, 165 km (100 miles) north of Damascus.

At least one person, a 12-year-old child, was killed when tanks...

The news is bad in Bahrain and Yemen also:

By Roy Gutman

McClatchy Newspapers

MANAMA, Bahrain — Empowered by a 6-week-old state of emergency, the Sunni minority government of Bahrain has arrested scores of Shiite women teachers and schoolgirls, held them for days in prison and subjected them to physical and verbal abuse, according to victims, human-rights advocates and a former member of parliament

Bahrain's king said on Sunday a state of emergency, imposed in March after Saudi-led troops arrived to help crush protests, would be lifted on June 1, two weeks before it expires.

That would be two days before a deadline set by Formula One organizers for Bahrain to decide whether to reschedule a Grand Prix it was to have hosted on March 13.

typical

priorities

Could be that we will soon return to a situation where these countries are treated like China(authoritarian dictatorships that have supressed revolts and that we can't change and that our governments and media establishments insist will open up if we do business with them economically)

I have to wonder if that would be any worse than the "help" we're giving the Libyan resistance.

Yes. The Libyans would have been crushed completely now if not for the assistance they have received. Unless you're suggesting that if Q had quickly killed folks and everyone backed down (because they received no assistance), that more Libyans would be alive now, albeit under Q's control. Iranians seeking freedom, like the Chinese, are locked up but mostly not killed too, I guess.

Whereas this way the Libyans get to be crushed slowly and incompletely, a few women and kids at a time, as cities are indiscriminately mortared, lost, retaken, etc etc for who knows how long. And at the end of this dark and horrific tunnel, the prospect of a settlement negotiated by France, Italy and the United States.

Oh and the UK, probably.

But I keep forgetting - the only alternative to this was to cheer on Gaddafi's tanks and airplanes as they massacred the people of Benghazi. D'oh!

No ideal choices. Too many Libyan deaths either way. The current approach still has a slim chance of being salveagable as Q has not yet finished off the rebels.

"Salvageable" meaning a barely veiled imperial carve-up that excludes Gaddafi's family but leaves everything else in place - gross inequality, no democratic institutions, corruption as a way of life, etc etc. - i.e. the defeat of the revolution.

We'll just have to wait and see

Wouldn't really be worth going to the bookies for that scenario TBH

the food here is terrible. and the portions, so small

It sort of IS that!

- i.e. the defeat of the revolution

Not if Gaddafi is gone.

Would you settle for a henchman to be named later?