Canadian Politics Thread

Regarding the NDP support in Quebec, and in general, this article gives some food for thought. Especially since the NDP are apparently polling in first place in BC and doing a lot better than anyone expects in PQ right now.

with the option of Jack Layton as prime minister, 44 per cent of Quebec would vote NDP, 10 per cent more than for the Bloc. That poll is from a year ago, but there's probably a good reason that Gilles Duceppe's campaign involves stressing to voters that Layton will never become prime minister.

This is the crazy thing, the difference between Layton and Broadbent: people loved Broadbent, but they weren't willing to make him prime minister if it meant voting for his party. Today, people love Layton and they aren't afraid of an NDP-led government: if there is an option for an NDP-Liberal coalition, people prefer Layton and his party to lead more than two to one. The problem is, they just don't think it's going to happen.

When Egyptians succeeded in deposing Hosni Mubarak in February, what was revealed to them and to the world was that what had seemed impossible had been entirely possible. Their situation was much as that facing Canadians now: it was precisely their continued belief in the impossibility of achieving what they wanted which perpetuated its impossibility.

So the question to Canadians is: why not vote NDP, leave the Liberals in the wilderness, strike a blow against Quebec separatism and get the government you want? All that's stopping you is the belief that it can't happen.

not what i expected when i clicked your link!

LOL. Ooops. Here it is:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/douglas-bell/and-now-a-word-from-our-ndp-conscience/article1982035/

Ha.

Clemenza, are you in the US? I'm in Canada (obv) and can access the clip. I was actually originally searching for video of the "You had an option, sir" exchange but couldn't find it.

xpost

Nah, I'm sitting in a Brampton schoolroom right now. Maybe it's some kind of firewall my board has set up, but we can access YouTube otherwise.

Oh, here it is!:
http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/federal_politics/topics/1181-6516/

For all that I loathe Mulroney, what a powerful speaker.

The clips are region-locked outside of Canada, or at least, I can't view either of the ones posted recently. Anything hosted on CBC's own site will work for me though. I've never run into region-locking there!

[but sund4r your link seems to be a lost page, can you re-post?]

Opened up the Turner-Mulroney clip at home--great! Turner on substance ("cancellable on six months' notice"--regardless of whether you were for or against NAFTA, that's a big "yeah, sure"), Mulroney on style. Turner comes across as feckless.

1984 and 1988

Can you imagine a Canadian politician arguing today that free trade with the US was a sellout of our entire history that turned us into a colony? Maybe the Marxist-Leninists?

Fuck Harper and the Conservatives. Vote for anyone but him. Even the fucking Bloq.

Newest EKOS seat projection projects 6 NDP seats in Quebec and 14 in BC! (Don't know how realistic it is but it's interesting).

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/seat_projection_april_15_2011.pdf

The downside of that projection, if it's accurate, is that Linda Duncan will lose her seat and Alberta will become true blue again.

Yeah, it also projects that the NDP will lose 7 seats in ON.

Although, that still accounts for a net loss for the CPC and net gain for the LPC in ON.

Basically, that projection predicts that the LPC + NDP will together have as many seats as the CPC. It could still be reasonably feasible for the CPC government to fall on a Throne Speech or budget and have Ignatieff take over with NDP support - but less likely than if the LPC and CPC totals were closer. I expect the CPC and LPC will both be courting the NDP after the election.

this map of political contributions is pretty cool

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/carte-des-contributions-aux-partis-politiques/?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B2_carte-interactive_1474045_section_POS1

that reminds me - time to donate to the Libs and NDP!

EKOS always come down on the liberal side of things for some reason and like i said about quebec earlier - the NDP support is so (relatively) even throughout the province that i can only really see it turning into maybe an extra seat in the montreal area.

honestly - all i want to see is the Cons seat count drop - i don't care about the rest. i think if Harper looses a good few seats this time around the conservatives might have to consider the fact that this could be as far as Harper can take them.

Ignatieff apparently decided that his campaign had been too reasonable so far: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/16/cv-election-house-ignatieff.html

if he were a real canadian, he would have been inspired by the tragically hip, instead of by an AMERICAN singer

Be thankful it wasn't the Canadian "Rise Up."

In other news, friends from my old hometown pointed out this gem of a campaign video, which seems like it came straight outta 1985: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25qlSrvgugA

Ack, guess you can't post a YouTube link on the same line as the rest of your text:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25qlSrvgugA

OK I give up.

The clip works fine for me, Sean.

worked for me too. you've got my vote, Wally!

is this a good place to bitch about the totally unelectable adrian dix becoming the leader of the bc ndp?

"I see well-clothed children"

!

Tell me more about Adrian Dix.

Unelectable Glen Clark-affiliated union thug if the comments section of the Globe and Mail is to be believed.

One of the local politicians out this way once proved his commitment to the environment by handing out reusable shopping bags with his name on them. I hope, for ILX's sake, that Adrian does the same.

hahaha

So Angus Reid may not have been a total fluke as to the NDP numbers but the Conservatives' stubborn lead is depressing: http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=61

I hate to say it but if the Liberal and NDP numbers remain that even, that might make a CPC majority actually feasible.

Depends on how they break down regionally. Haven't heard many examples of ridings where the lib/NDP split is letting the Tories ride in.

I think you're right, actually. I bet Ignatieff regrets ruling out a coalition now.

has there been a categorical rule-out? think layton could ask for a referendum on proportional representation as the price of forming govt?

Wouldn't that kind of constitutional change require more than a referendum?

Ignatieff ruled out a coalition in March: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/03/26/cv-kickoff-libs.html

but seems to have tried to take a more nuanced position today.

Well if it works like in the UK, which I imagine it would/could, they could do a PR referendum that is binding no matter the outcome (I think--anyone feel free to correct me on this).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12485084

Constitutional amendments definitely require more than that in Canada and have since 1982: (Part V here: http://www.solon.org/Constitutions/Canada/English/ca_1982.html ). Summarized here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_Act,_1982#Amending_the_Constitution

And our system for electing the House of Commons seems to be spelled out clearly enough in the 1867 Constitution (BNA) Act. See "House of Commons": http://www.solon.org/Constitutions/Canada/English/ca_1867.html

Changing our electoral system would seem to fall under this category (someone correct me if I'm wrong):

42. (1) An amendment to the Constitution of Canada in relation to the following matters may be made only in accordance with subsection 38(1):

(a) the principle of proportionate representation of the provinces in the House of Commons prescribed by the Constitution of Canada;

That would require

38. (1) An amendment to the Constitution of Canada may be made by proclamation issued by the Governor General under the Great Seal of Canada where so authorized by

(a) resolutions of the Senate and the House of Commons; and

(b) resolutions of the legislative assemblies of at least two-thirds of the provinces that have, in the aggregate, according to the then latest general census, at least fifty per cent of the population of the provinces.

aw, of course it couldn't be so simple.

However, what I said really applies to party list-based proportional rep systems. Something like Alternative Vote/instant runoff voting would seem to be completely constitutional under the existing constitution, since it is still based on a system where each MP represents one riding. Frankly, that might also be a better idea than a PR system that actually institutionalizes political parties in the constitution.

ooohh dunno about that, have you taken a peek at ILX's thread for UK's upcoming AV vote yet? I think I'd rather have some form of PR, but I'll also admit that it's been a while since I've read up much on the various voting systems, so I'm not in much position to debate this one!

it's like they were reading ile! (last week)

http://photogallery.thestar.com/977662

deadeyed motherfucker