a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20070821055826/lyricwiki/images/thumb/1/1d/Billy_Idol_-_Rebel_Yell.jpg/180px-Billy_Idol_-_Rebel_Yell.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Mwev8cEJEMA/TPDtmpBv3XI/AAAAAAAAAd0/8A4PbmJuAN4/s200/Crystals+-+He%2527s+a+rebel.jpg

Just a couple of starting points to help Alfred out.

hillary clinton met delegates from the rebels earlier in the week. i should imagine there have been diplomatic contacts before then. i'm sure that process is what delayed the US's decision. it's a risk -- there is a big risk of being drawn deeper in, and it isn't clear how the_west backs away from whatever's about to happen.

I'm pretty sure I wouldn't mind sending some RPGs and similar weapons through a back door to keep the resistance to Ghaddafi going and maybe help it succeed, if that were possible. I don't care if keeping the resistance going sends oil to $150/bbl for a while. But plunging the USA into another war seems like a very, very bad idea to me.

Do our compassionate ilxors have any idea what it costs when the US military goes to a live-fire hot-war basis? Or, other than "let's fuck Ghaddafi, he's a shitheel", what our war aims would be? All a war can do is blow stuff up and kill people until one side gives in and agrees to stop. Not a very delicate instrument of policy.

I kinda wish Qaddafi WAS Saddam Hussein -- it would make things easier.

this isnt scooby doo son

zoinks!

I live through something similar every day in South Florida. Cuban-Americans insist on treating Fidel as if here Stalin, and the comparison doesn't even do justice to Fidel's particular kind of rottenness.

here = he were

should probably--hey look!--Wait And See before we start calling deploying a couple belgian jets "plunging the USA into another war".

the point of the resolution was to delay an otherwise totally inevitable torture-sodden massacre while people try and figure out how it can be prevented or at least minimized. that is the aim. pretty okay with that for the moment.

When you start sending military jets, belgian or otherwise, into a country's air space, with orders to shoot at Libyan aircraft, then you are engaging in a very public, very open act of war, and it matters little whether the Libyans succeed in shooting the jets down, or only succeed in being shot down themselves.

well, I'll concede to the pro-action faction that the UN, specifically the Security Council, has voted to go ahead with the no-fly-zone, and Libya is violating UN policy. It's not quite like Iraq.

In a stark message, Obama said: "Muammar Gaddafi has a choice. The resolution that was passed lays out very clear conditions that must be met. The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Arab states agree that a ceasefire must be implemented immediately."

He said this meant:

• All attacks against civilians must stop.

•  Gaddafi must stop his troops from advancing on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, and pull them back from Ajdabiya, Misrata and Zawiya.

• Gaddafi must establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas.

• Humanitarian assistance must be allowed to reach the people of Libya.

"Let me be clear: these terms are not negotiable. These terms are not subject to negotiation.

"If Gaddafi does not comply with the resolution the international community will impose consequences and the resolution will be enforced through military action."

Ok, how the hell does this work? Aerial attacks work when you have a convoy going through the desert to assault Benghazi. But what do you do to force an army to retreat from a city it holds? It may be that the_West can bomb random Libyan infrastructure until Ghadaffi concedes, but that is far from inevitable and would surely build up collateral damage.

Livestream of bombing of central Benghazi.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12794589

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110319/capt.1f2f3ebeed864243ab6bebbedd759148-1f2f3ebeed864243ab6bebbedd759148-0.jpg?x=400&y=227&q=85&sig=OsAmG1KbqH1dUOuT5bIygw--

A warplane of Gadhafi's forces is seen being shot down with the pilot parachuting out of it over the outskirts of Benghazi, eastern Libya, Saturday, March 19, 2011.

Wow, now that's a picture.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12795971

According to Al Jazeera, that's one of the two operational rebel planes.

wheeeee

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51749000/jpg/_51749022_011220819-1.jpg

Really appreciate the BBC marking "rebel headquarters" on their satellite map of Benghazi. As with Al Jazeera providing realtime targetting information to Gaddafi's bombers, I don't think journalists will feel very welcome anywhere in Libya soon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/world/africa/20libya.html?hp

Colonel Qaddafi addressed President Obama as “our son,” in a letter that combined pleas with a jarring familiarity. “I have said to you before that even if Libya and the United States enter into war, God forbid, you will always remain my son and I have all the love for you as a son, and I do not want your image to change with me,” he wrote. “We are confronting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, nothing more. What would you do if you found them controlling American cities with the power of weapons? Tell me how would you behave so that I could follow your example?”

But for Western leaders, the risks of the military intervention are probably less military than political, given the possibility of a divided Libya with no clear authority. Many of the leaders in Paris have called for Colonel Qaddafi to quit, and it may be that military intervention leads to negotiations with the opposition for the colonel and his family to go.

you're the one who needs history lessons, my friend. mayne

― Rich Lolwry (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, March 18, 2011 11:29 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark

not even taking a position on this discussion but this is such a missed opportunity imo

and it may be that military intervention leads to negotiations

"it may be" is the whole gamble in that toss of the dice

Operation "Odyssey Dawn" underway - U.S. submarine launched cruise missile strikes on airfields and air-defense missile strikes. Operation names have definitely improved under the Obama administration - this is up there with "Sand Flea" or "Dewey Canyon".

Also, Mohammed Al Nabbous, the Benghazi founder of the shoestring livestreaming Libya Alhurra TV which I linked last night, died in fighting today. Audio only for the morbidly curious.

'odyssey dawn' is an awful name, sounds like a shit racehorse

Come now, aren't you eager for some righteous smiting in the land of the Lotus Eaters?

odyssey dawn is badass fuiud

feel like we should have a separate 'military action in libya' thread tbh

the uk has missiles?

yes but usually they're reserve for emo bands at glastonbury

well that makes them perfect for Odyssey Dawn

libyan action homeric amirite

hoo boy

I kinda wish Qaddafi WAS Saddam Hussein

Beyond being a longtime dickboy for the US, right?

The FRENCH bomb people now??

BreakingNews Breaking News
Arab League criticizes airstrikes on Libya - AFP http://bit.ly/gtGCrF
32 minutes ago

arab league getting clever - want one of those no fly zones that dont involve bombing

Odyssey Dawn: a military operations in Libya thread.

the ticker says [elements of the] yemeni army is joining the opposition?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/21/yemen-military-commanders-opposition-tanks

Three Yemen army commanders, including a top general, have defected to the opposition calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, as tanks were deployed in the streets of the capital.

Dear people of Bahrain:

As the majority of you are Shia and Iran is run by fundamentalist Shia, and the US uses Bahrain as its personal port, you are condemned forever to authoritarian rule. Even if everyone of you gets a facebook page and pledges allegiance to American style democracy we will be sure that you can still be manipulated by Iran.
Good luck, now you know how people in China and other places feel.

Sincerely,

Western governments (and anti-imperialists who believe you can only have democracy if you magically do it on your own)

I am not aware of any existing shi'a political organization that is not allied with/funded by/directly controlled by Iran but feel free to prove me wrong

my impression is that a lot of the protesters are not doing it 'as shias' if you see what i mean. it shouldn't be automatically reduced to that anyway. but i don't know enough, about, say, the economic lot of the bahrainians. do the protesters have sources of finance locally? or are the shias locked out of the economy?

(as well as the political hierarchy)

They're locked out of everythng else, very much the poor relations I think

I find it hard to believe Bahrainian Sh'ia could go ahead and set up political organizations easily anyway. Are all of the protesters there really Iranian funded and controlled?

Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s grip on power looked increasingly tenuous Monday as top generals, tribal leaders and diplomats turned against him, apparently dividing the military and leaving the long-serving former army officer barricaded in his presidential palace W. Post

Guardian take:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/21/yemen-regime-army-chiefs-defect

As NPR's Dina Temple-Raston has reported, the unrest in Yemen worries counterterrorism experts. That's because "al-Qaida's arm in Yemen has been one of the terrorist group's most active affiliates. (And) it is home to radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the English speaking-imam who has been accused of inspiring and directing young jihadists to attack the West."

man, egypt and mubarak, possibly libya and Godawfulli, i love metal and jjjusten, and now yemen and saleh - this has been a crazy month

Probably shouldn't post this under my actual name, but fuck you Lord Bell. This morning has been soul destroying and I'd quit if I could afford to.