a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

I was saying that the Libyan opposition is a big can of worms that the US would probably prefer not to have to think about, given everything else that's going on. But it seems that the calculus has changed.

I'm against intervention by the US because nobody takes the US seriously as a neutral arbiter anymore (if they ever did). We blew that forever in 2003. A UN-mandated force that doesn't include the US or, like, Italy, might have a chance of doing some good. But I have no idea really.

A UN-mandated force that doesn't include the US or, like, Italy, might have a chance of doing some good

But includes the UK?!?!?

So what does this ceasfire mean? Libya has said it's stopping "all military activity"

I hope it means that we don't get to watch various journalists getting a 24 hour rolling hard-on the minute they get close to some military hardware.

I'm against intervention by the US because nobody takes the US seriously as a neutral arbiter anymore (if they ever did).

i just don't think there's ever any such thing, at all, ever. im not even sure what a neutral arbiter is. the UN isn't one: it has a very clear conception of human rights, for example. (im also not entirely clear on the identity of the paragons making this judgement.)

and it obviously has to depend on member states to back up its mandates. and none of them have spotless hands. or at least, the countries with the capacity to enforce mandates do not.

the african union, arab league, brazil, india, etc, have all been touted by pro-intervention, anti-american types over the last few weeks, but none of them seem to have stepped up.

ceasefire announcement is crazy. Capital Q either buying time or willing to negotiate...? wtf

Why is it crazy?

If Gaddafi acts like a good boy and follows UN Resolutions, how do the US/UK/France et al propose to get rid of him?

But includes the UK?!?!?

Well, no.

For what its worth, I've examined the actual pipeline routes around Ajdabiya, a presently contested town where pro-Gaddafi forces halted their advance toward Benghazi. These tend to run as disturbed earth parallelling roads. As far as I can tell, pro-Gaddafi forces now control virtually all territory with upstream oil infrastructure, a trump card in any negotiations.

The Benghazi enclave (and Cyrenaica generally) will need to import all fuel needs by sea.

Meanwhile in Yemen:

SANA, Yemen — Security forces and government supporters opened fire on demonstrators on Friday, killing at least 30, as the largest protest so far in Yemen came under violent and sustained attack in the center of the capital, Sana.

From the NY Times

Yikes:

... killing at least 50 people and wounding 240 in the capital, Sana'a. Security men in civilian clothes fired live bullets at the protesters from rooftops, aiming at the head and chest, a witness told the German Press Agency dpa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAHPwPDDIw0

so that's just a straight-up massacre of civilians.

The Libyan regime will be "brought to justice" over attacks on unarmed civilians, UN chief Ban Ki-moon says.

... make room for the Yemenis, Bahrainis, Saudis

The NY Times also has another overview piece re young people using Facebook and stuff to organize in Morocco, Bahrain and elsewhere, but now facing bullets or other restraints

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/middleeast/18youth.html?ref=middleeast

who you tryin to get crazy with ese? don't you know I'm loco

― suggest and ban is my favourite combination (history mayne), Friday, 18 March 2011 08:57 (6 hours ago) Bookmark

irl lol

http://slatest.slate.com/id/2288687

congatulation to hillary!!

If Gaddafi acts like a good boy and follows UN Resolutions, how do the US/UK/France et al propose to get rid of him?

yeah I just meant crazy as in I wasn't expecting it. obviously it's a very canny move on Qudhawfy's part, just wondering what he's going for here - stalemate w/ a divided state and an opposition that he can starve/wait out?

As in Libya, the president Saleh was considered a useful thug by the U.S. for his collaboration against Islamists. As in Bahrain, the protesters mostly come from the local Shia population (46% of the population) who happen to dominate the area around Sanaa. Sheikh Hussein bin Abdullah al-Ahmar, chief of the largest Shia tribal confederation, the Hashid, has thrown his lot in with the protesters.

Pretty sure David Cameron will be claiming he saved the entire Libyan nation, so Hillary will have to fite him or sumthin'

As in Libya, the president Saleh was considered a useful thug by the U.S. for his collaboration against Islamists.

i think this is a bit harsh on the US, which hasn't really showered gadaffi with love, even since 2003. britain got pretty strongly censured for letting whatshisnuts go free. of course, deep down, blah blah blah oil.

stalemate w/ a divided state and an opposition that he can starve/wait out?

Probably. He's shown he can defeat them militarily and he will certainly claim (whether it's true or not) that they don't have enough support outwith Benghazi to have any legitimacy

I guess one thing this Libyan ceasefire does is forestall any no-fly zone.

The threat of one is what created the ceasefire

I guess one thing this Libyan ceasefire does is forestall any no-fly zone.

You'd think?

Gaddafi is reportedly still shelling and advancing in Misurata, the one major town in the west still held by rebels.

xpost Like hm says, it's a stretch to cause Gaddafi "useful". Not all Arab dictators are the same. If the US could have taken him out years ago they would have.

if only Gingrich and his crack team of CIA operatives had gotten their way...

i guess one thing the ceasfire and no-fly zone do is forestall gadaffi's forces from killing lots of people

well, lots MORE people

Which was ostensibly the point of the security council resolution.

yeah but only ostensibly right?

i guess one thing the ceasfire and no-fly zone do is forestall gadaffi's forces from killing lots of people

So Yemen next then?

Or maybe just let the Saudis handle that one too

xp - Yeah, Gaddafi is calling their bluff..."I did what you asked, what are you still doing here?"

I can only assume the Yemeni regime is banking on the rest of the world being too distracted to pay attention

xp

I don't think it was a bluff. it's more like he's challenging them to go beyond stopping the fighting to actively violating Libya's sovereignty and removing him

the french have already said bollocks to 'libyan sovereignty'

"Bluff" possibly the wrong word...what I meant was, the UN resolution talks about protecting civilians but the intent was clearly to shift the balance to the rebels, who are in a situation where a stalemate may not be much use.

Though there was a report that Egypt is starting to send arms to the rebels, so maybe the ceasefire could help them put together a more organised resistance. Who knows.

The EU foreign affairs chief, Baroness Ashton, has told Euro MPs that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi should be "sent back into the cold".
http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news17879.html

baroness ashton is a fucking amateur, a little leftover joke by the outgoing brown government

she's changed her tune, is what im saying

and in this case, what is she talking about? 'sending him into the cold' leaves libyans as they were in the 1970s and 80s, ie with a psychopathic thug running things. UN/EU/__ should make some bodies turn cold more like.

assuming the west starts seriously arming/training the rebels, I would think that would quickly tilt the scales against Ghaddaffy, no...? I mean it could be long and drawn-out and (I'm sure) brutal but dude has like no allies at this point, and his funds are frozen.

I read that he has access to funds he has stored in Tripoli

hopefully that won't be necessary. the arab league called for a no-fly zone and could be the desired neutral arbiter everyone can agree on.

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond says he "strongly supports" the UN resolution. He tells the BBC it sends a strong message to the Libyan regime and "will concentrate minds". Asked if he supports the idea of "regime change", he says he believes "the end game" is "a new government of Libya".

Wee Alex has spoken, Gadaffi may as well get out while the goin' is good

hopefully that won't be necessary. the arab league called for a no-fly zone and could be the desired neutral arbiter everyone can agree on.

Which of the various despots, dictators and tyrants are in the Arab League? Dominated by the Saudis?

that's the joke

Ah! Maybe a winky emoticon in future?