a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

The first rule of intervening surely must be 'know what you're intervening for'?

But is this ever as obvious and clear-cut as one would like

iirc clinton's been meeting with rebel delegations this week. they've had a month to get some idea. and -- subversion of democracy alert -- the US would have an impact on the outcome. if the outcome is more rather than less democratic, well, that would be better than bad.

thereby prevented a Communist government in 1948, which surely nobody would now consider a bad thing to have done

Speak for yourself

really?

I've no idea how an Italian Communist government in 1948, democratically elected, would have turned out. If it went wrong you could always pull an Allende on them I suppose.

That was my first reaction, too, Tom.

Also, I don't really know exactly where the Italian Communists were at in 1948 but, for the next 30-40 years they were basically the main part of the left in Italy and not a bunch of raving wild-eyed Bolsheviks afaik

Should read or listen to the "Little world of Don Camillo" IMO

i guess part of what im asking is how a libyan economy functions without selling oil...?

I'm guessing some country or countries will ignore embargos and buy some oil from Libya.

A TomDispatch analysis of Defense Department documents indicates that, since the 1990s, the United States has transferred large quantities of military materiel, ranging from trucks and aircraft to machine-gun parts and millions of rounds of live ammunition, to Bahrain’s security forces.

...

In addition to all these gifts of weaponry, ammunition, and fighting vehicles, the Pentagon in coordination with the State Department oversaw Bahrain’s purchase of more than $386 million in defense items and services from 2007 to 2009, the last three years on record. These deals included the purchase of a wide range of items from vehicles to weapons systems. Just this past summer, to cite one example, the Pentagon announced a multimillion-dollar contract with Sikorsky Aircraft to customize nine Black Hawk helicopters for Bahrain’s Defense Force.

Business as usual

Proponents would argue that this is preventing Iran's fundamentalists from becoming the predominate power in the region. But surely trying to work towards a constitutional parliamentary system (with a monarch?) in Bahrain would be better than pushing the country further into extremes

Why is the assumption always made that Shiites will run gleefully into the arms of Iran, given half the chance?

I would have thought the events in Egypt would have taught the West not to make the usual (bordering on racist) assumptions they always seem to make make about Arabs etc

Iran's arms are wide enough to hold them close together although they're worlds apart

1970s and 1980s conservative argument in a different part of the world: Anything but communist rule, even if its an authoritarian right-wing dictatorship

2011: anything but Iranian supported Shia fundamentalist rule, even if it is an authoritarian dictatorship

Where did former Bush administration employee David Frum come up with this item he mentions in his Telegraph article that History Mayne linked to above:

For the past few days, Washington policy circles have been worrying over a piece of research circulated last week: "On a per capita basis … twice as many foreign fighters came to Iraq from Libya – and specifically eastern Libya – than from any other country in the Arabic-speaking world. Libyans were apparently more fired up to travel to Iraq to kill Americans than anyone else in the Middle East. And 84.1 per cent [74] of the 88 Libyan fighters … who listed their hometowns came from either Benghazi or Darnah in Libya's east."

Gaddafi wormed his way back into the West's good graces by passing on intel on Islamist activity, and has suppressed Salafi inspired insurrections in Cyrenaica before. So I wouldn't write off Frum's intel (though I hate his whole clique). I have no doubt that there are a lot of sincere pro-democracy activists among the insurgents, but U.S. foreign policy has been burnt severely twice this decade siding too eagerly with insurgents.

All a bit moot. The U.S. will want the cover of a NATO resolution for a no-fly zone, and that's not going to happen without a lot of arm-twisting of Turkey, who are adamant in their veto (and have billions in contracts with Gaddafi).

didn't libya give up AQ Khan?

Britain, France and the US, along with several Arab countries, are to join forces to throw a protective ring around the Libyan rebel stronghold of Benghazi as soon as a UN security council vote on military action is authorised, according to security council sources.

A source at UN headquarters in New York said military forces could be deployed "within hours" of a new security council resolution calling for states to protect civilians by halting attacks by Muammar Gaddafi's forces by air, land and sea.

The resolution would impose a no-fly zone over Libya – but a no-fly zone was no longer enough, the source said. "The resolution authorises air strikes against tank columns advancing on Benghazi or engaging naval ships bombarding Benghazi," he said.

Britain, France and Lebanon sponsored the new resolution, which provides the moral and legal basis for military action.

British and French forces are understood to have been placed on standby, after the US said it was prepared to support the measure if Arab countries agreed to take an active role.

The security council was scheduled to vote on the new resolution this evening, and its backers expressed confidence it would pass after hours of negotiation.

that.... seems crazy. how is that possible

i'm picturing troops appearing out of thin air a la Risk or something. does seem very weird.

lol @ Hillary noting Qadafi's essentially evil nature

I know that in some ways this seems too late but I still think there was no way the US or any other western country could have preempted the Arab League and the UN without a shitstorm. If China and Russia don't veto it and this gets passed, I'm optimistic about military action for the first time. The prospects for the surviving rebels if Gaddafi crushes the uprising is grim.

Yeah this was completely unexpected...even when the US started making noises I assumed it was because they knew it was all over anyway.

i have to say this does not look good to me

really looks like one of those obamoid compromise plans that will offend nobody completely, satisfy nobody likewise, and may not even work very well. the goal is not necc to depose gaddafi, but aid in holding benghazi? for how long?

yeah I don't really get what the long-range plan is here. what's the exit strategy.

if we're going to intervene, may as well go all in and just kill Kadhafee

just guessing here, but holding Benghazi means a respite for the rebels to train and rearm so that they can kill Cuhdahfie? not sure what the goal here is

kill=overthrow

like I said waaaay upthread, no insurgency can succeed without a) the support of the majority of the populace and b) a steady supply of weapons. At this point, (a) looks pretty questionable, and (b) looks like it will require a long-term commitment. Even with western support, it's still gonna be a bunch of unemployed dentists with machine guns vs. Khadawfy's military + mercenaries + whatever tribal support he has. Not really a promising scenario.

I know it violates all international laws and establishes terrible precedents but it's situations like this where it's clear that decapitation (ie, a targeted assassination of Qudhafi) would solve the problem instanter

the C'd'phé sons could conceivably be even worse

UN approves airstrikes

wow

this is getting really unpredictable

“We are coming tonight,” Colonel Qaddafi said. “You will come out from inside. Prepare yourselves from tonight. We will find you in your closets.”

http://tundratabloids.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/GADAFFI-THE-DRAG-QUEEN.jpg

"want the world to know, gotta let it show, I'm coming ... out"

Part of me will miss him.

http://nowlebanon.com/Library/Images/Uploaded%20Images/blog/Muammar_al-Gaddafi-main-349857.jpg

Gingrich said, "I think Eisenhower and Reagan would have said you know this is a very serious situation, and then they would have said to the CIA, Gadhafi needs to get out of there and it would have happened quietly, it would not have used military force. It would not have used American troops but somehow he would have left."

^^^this fucking guy.

glad to know what kind of Top Secret shenanigans Gingrich would pursue as president

interesting diplomacy in this resolution. no outright hard-handed rebuke to gdfi. a form of words that don't explicitly support insurrection. no clear quid pro quo for actions that contravene expected behaviours.

it will be interesting to see what (and who) were the key players' contributions.

Not suggesting above that this is the end for Gaddafi, as the UN resolution wording seems to designed to deter Gaddafi from advancing past Ajdabiya, on some slim hope of a negotiated or de facto truce.

Gaddafi's troops also need a rest for maintenance and to bring up supplies, and Ajdabiya is the best place for that on the road to Benghazi. A halt would leave nearly all of Libya's oil and water infrastructure in his hands.

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/ArtAndPhoto-Fronts/WORLD_NEWS/EVERGREEN/MIDEAST/Libya-biz-explainer/Libya-Oil-fields-and-pipelines.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41462000/gif/_41462932_libya_water3_map416.gif

hopefully the Free French are still holding out at Bir Hacheim /wwII nerd

Yeah, its kinda interesting revisiting these place names from my cardboard general past. Rommel had two successful offensives staged out of El Aghelia 1941, 1942, and present day Al `Uqaylah/Bishr was just passed by Gaddafi's battalions on Monday.

^i played Afika Corps as a nipper. Rebels need 3-1 odds iirc

Afrika

That really was a terrible map:

http://cf.geekdo-images.com/images/pic674700_lg.jpg

My Western Desert game of choice was:

http://cf.geekdo-images.com/images/pic239377_md.jpg

had the civil war version of that second one

lol I think my dad had that game xp

Back to the modern day, large swaths of the off-road desert in Eastern Libya and Western Egypt are still considered impassible due to forgotten WWII era minefields. If the desert preserves them as well as mummies and the like the last victims of WWII ordinance may happen there, centuries from now.

41 casualties (half fatal) to Egyptian bedouin in 2009 alone.

In an interview broadcast just before the Security Council voted, Gadhafi dismissed its actions. "The U.N. Security Council has no mandate. We don't acknowledge their resolutions," he told the Portuguese public Radiotelevisao Portuguesa. He pledged to respond harshly to U.N.-sponsored attacks. "If the world is crazy, we will be crazy too," he said.

jesus

"If the world is crazy, we will be crazy too," he said.

― omar little, Friday, March 18, 2011 12:00 AM (35 minutes ago) Bookmark

like this is 100% nuts and horrible don't misunderstand but

kind of amazing