7.9 and 8.8 Earthquakes in Japan

they got in trouble a while back for wanting to set up futures trading on terrorist attacks. i mean, it was a moral imperative for them, if you're down with the logic.

there's a similar site for trades on entertainment stuff that hollywood studios fought tooth and nail

looks like weak reasoning to me but there you have it, existence of intrade

― goole, Tuesday, March 15, 2011 2:19 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark

ha isnt the only way to REALLY make money off of it to say 'goole 100% otm'

tbh i kinda think there's a kernel of truth to that 'weak reasoning,' but i can't really think of how to rationalize it

and really: even though it's kinda gross to make money gambling on tragedy, that's also, like, how the entire stock market works, so getting worked up about it even a little bit would make living in the modern world as i understand it basically untenable

there is a 'wisdom of crowds' but i don't think that 'small batch of dudes trying to game each other for money' is the right crowd to consult for every problem!

ha isnt the only way to REALLY make money off of it to say 'goole 100% otm'

i'm not sure i follow you but i hope you're right

i feel like if there was enough action on that prop it could serve to approximate the collective knowledge of the event, but theyre never gonna get to that volume cause people generally find betting on this sort of thing slightly uh distasteful

goole i gotta app on my iphone that'll change your tune: intrade medical diagnostics

p cutting edge, imo

ps pretty sure you have lyme disease

*koff koff*

really starting to worry about my friends + colleagues in japan now. they mostly live in kanagawa prefecture. last time i heard from them on sunday they were ok but v worried abt the radiation. economic situation worries me a lot too since we are a small company on the verge of securing a second round of investment from VCs in the next few days.

i'm not sure i follow you but i hope you're right

― goole, Tuesday, 15 March 2011 19:27 (21 minutes ago) Permalink

if these guys are wrong alot its smart $ to bet against them

I was writing business stories last week that read "Oil prices fell in trading after Mommar Kaddafi regained control of several facilities previously held by rebel factions…"

Like, investors were going, "Phew! At least the oil is in stable hands now."

This'll be the last video I'll post because we probably don't need anymore but this one follows people escaping the tsunami zone after the earthquake. Promise that'll be it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJLT0tm-jWw&feature=player_embedded

...wow.

the first five minutes of that one made me bite my nails, like WHERE IS THE URGENCY PPL

:-( This is just so unreal. I was talking with my parents today. They are emotionally drained. In total shock, really. This is something I can/will never comprehend. What they experienced. My mom said: it is so... strange. They have to sit in the dark to save electricity. They check up on the news. Walk into unlit shops trying to find fluids and food. No candles nor torch lights to be found.

"like WHERE IS THE URGENCY PPL"

I'm sure they weren't completely grasping what we know now was coming. They all seem pretty nervous, though

In the US, it would've been more like those alien movies where the cars are crashing into each other at intersections after the flying saucer starts frying shit.

I haven't really been glued to the TV/monitor, but what I haven't seen addressed is why nuclear power plants were located in a tsunami zone??

The majority all over the world are coastal, not sure why though.

it's for cooling, need access to salt water

thought they used fresh water under normal circumstances

seems like you could have "access" to salt water but be, say, 10 miles inland but whatdoiknow

TimeOutTokyo
NHK report that, as of 5.45am (March 16), reactor 4 is once again on fire.
1 minute ago

news organizations: can we just assume that all of the reactors are on fire now and work from there?

"Everything is fine, no need to worry, what's a little radiation (bananas, long distance flights, invest in NUKES now buy buy buy!)"
Current pic:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/03/15/article-1366308-0B2BC62000000578-334_964x578.jpg

yipes

unrelated non sequitur thought: that giant black squidgy blob looks like a viking ship

xpost

Normally it is fresh water within the reactor and that is heat exchanged with whatever convenient source of water there is.

The reason costal locations are picked is ease of access, a lot of the reactor components have to come by ship because they are to big to be easily shipped by road or rail; but more importantly you build them on the coast where the prevailing wind blows out over the sea so that if there is an accident you have a good chance that the radioactivity will blow out to sea and mutate a giant squid into the kraken.

lol ed

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/03/should-you-send-aid-to-japan.html

felix salmons point linked to in that post is good, better to donate unrestricted money to an organization you trust than to earmark it for a particular disaster

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/03/14/dont-donate-money-to-japan

tyler cowen is kinda distasteful imo 'regime change' eh - he gets a lot of play on liberal blogs cause hes a somewhat heterodox libertarian whos smart and erudite and all but idk

i agree with felix salmon mostly, these are good links too:

http://blog.givewell.org/2011/03/11/japan-earthquaketsunami-disaster-relief-donations/

http://blog.givewell.org/2011/03/15/update-on-how-to-help-japan-funding-is-not-needed-we-recommend-giving-to-doctors-without-borders-to-promote-better-disaster-relief-in-general/

i mean we should donate to the red cross in order to topple the japanese government waht xp

so basically the risk of tsunami damgage having repercussions on the cooling abilities of a plant was vastly underestimated?

second post there says that organizations arent even asking for funds anymore.

I wouldn’t want anyone to take this post as an argument that (a) the situation in Japan is anything other than extremely tragic and extremely challenging; (b) you shouldn’t give to charity.

My interpretation, rather, is that

• the people and government of Japan are extraordinarily well-prepared, as well as competent and well-resourced, and do not need significant external assistance in order to mount a maximally effective relief and recovery effort.

• Therefore, you as a donor do not have the power to improve the relief and recovery effort in Japan. If you do give, your gift will probably be used (a) by the charity you give it to, for activities in a different country; (b) for non-disaster-relief-and-recovery efforts in Japan.

• Of the above two possibilities, I find (a) more appealing, because Japan is a wealthy country and everyday needs are greater elsewhere. But if you’re looking to pursue (a) and help people in need all over the world, I’d highly recommend giving to the best charity you can, rather than basing your giving on who is appealing to you most aggressively with images and language regarding Japan.

• If you prefer (b), a gift to the Japanese Red Cross seems reasonable.

Overall, though, a gift to Doctors Without Borders seems to me like the best way to effectively “respond to this disaster”. We feel they are a leader in transparency, honesty and integrity in relief organizations, and the fact that they’re not soliciting funds for Japan is a testament to this. Rewarding Doctors Without Borders is a move toward improving incentives and improving disaster relief in general.

Last night's Shizuoka quake corrected to a 6.4, significant because it runs along a different fault line than the recent cluster of 600+ quakes. Also, much closer to Tokyo/Yokohama metro areas so it was felt more intensely in those areas.

Spent nuke fuel pool may be boiling, further radiation leak feared
TOKYO, March 15 - (Kyodo)

A nuclear crisis at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant deepened Tuesday as fresh explosions occurred at the site and its operator said water in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel rods may be boiling, an ominous sign for the release of high-level radioactive materials from the fuel.

JP news reporting that the workers are struggling to keep the pools under 100C, the target of 83C is not being achieved.

Confusing because that has yesterday's date, but it is the most-recent news on Kyodo (it is Wednesday 3/16 in Japan).

Overall, though, a gift to Doctors Without Borders seems to me like the best way to effectively “respond to this disaster”. We feel they are a leader in transparency, honesty and integrity in relief organizations, and the fact that they’re not soliciting funds for Japan is a testament to this. Rewarding Doctors Without Borders is a move toward improving incentives and improving disaster relief in general.

^^^i can get w/this. was surprised to see no solicitations on their website today, but MSF is generally used to operating in waaaaay more austere environments than Japan, so I'm guessing their deployment was largely of human resources and not materiel. i seem to recall that after the Haitian disaster, they were like "yo we've gotten enough money, the rest of your cash will be going to our other projects." basically, giving to MSF means helping relieve the ~next~ disaster

see also: Partners In Health (except sub "long-term healthcare access for the impoverished" for "disaster relief").

yeah i dont think PIH is even planning on going to japan

uh, i know?

sorry for snark: i mean, PIH's ~thing~ is "healthcare for poor people" and they don't generally "go in" anywhere. that's MSF's ish.

just saying that if you want to give to an org that's good for the world in general, PIH is a great choice

looks like Americans aren't the only ones apologizing today

Tokyo Govenor Ishihara has apologized for calling the tsunami, 'divine retribution' (Guardian, UK)

meanwhile it looks like we might see another hydrogen explosion at reactor #4, the fire was in the same spot as last time apparently.

all this is from the very useful TimeOutTokyo twitter link from above

Mr "it won't even be as radioactive as a fart" upthread is an HR expert: http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/15/josef_oehmen_nuclear_not_worried_viral

Stay classy, Sun
http://twitpic.com/show/thumb/49ultp.jpg

Yeah the Age is being about as helpful with it's headlines this morning, too :( Like sure, there's probably some raised radiation levels right now but humans can deal with quite a bit before it becomes a damn problem. Meanwhile these kind of reports are causing ppl in tokyo to go and panic-buy stuff.

Fire reportedly out at reactor 4, but workers can't check it yet due to radiation. 8 minutes ago via Echofon

I keep thinking of the guys who've had to keep working at the plants trying to save them. Those brave bastards.

otm. friend who is closer to the situation pointed out how many of them are grieving, some have been injured, and several have been irradiated, but they're still going back in.