a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

happy to crush the uprising

that it would never happen in Egypt

I wouldn't have bet on it.

yes the state and military institutions are structured much differently in iran

the two countries really could not be more different

The Iranian regime is in some ways more like the Chinese regime in its skill at supressing dissident thought

MASR MASR MASR

of course these regimes always seem adamantine right up until they fall

"Crowds march past pres palace en route to Tahrir, pointing to the street and chanting 'Here, here, the Egyptians are here'"

cf bbc news reporter right now, i really really really hope we don't find out next week that this was actually just a military coup, i.e. "no one could have imagined just last week that (x)"

well it couldnt be just a military coup as it was sparked by a citizen uprising

iranian security forces were totally happy to (crush) the uprising

Also Basijis...

yah i was including them, nice people

You know who else I'd love to interview today? Zawahiri.

A couple of questions immediately spring to mind regarding all this:

When will there be elections?

What's up with the police? Are they coming back or will that have to wait a major overhaul? What will be done with the many people arrested by the govmt and also by the protesters/neighborhood watch groups?

Will the 15% increase in min wage stand?

When is the next football game?

tbh, i think the iranians are next

hope yr right, but i wouldn't bet on it

http://blog.caranddriver.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Axis-of-Evil-Iran-Place-440x268.jpg

he doesn't seem worried.

http://twitter.com/M_Ahmadinejad/status/36115893012406273

You know who else I'd love to interview today? Zawahiri.

^^^for realz

only 1900 points?

he can do better.

i sense this is an official twitter account

M_Ahmadinejad Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Had a weird dream again: I was working in a factory and Hosni Mubarak came in, picked me up, and carried me out and everybody clapped.

folks if you didn't see this

Irrational Paranoia!

sorta amusing

ah key question resolved

M_Ahmadinejad Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Great Satans! To clear things up, this account is a real as Snooki's tan; as real as Dick Cheney's heart; as real as Bristol Palin's rhythm.

i'm not sure how polite it is to express this sentiment, but i know that there are a lot of tenses wrt persians v. arabs and that persians in Iran have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them. it's certainly clear that Iran considers itself a hegemonic regional power and all that, but wrt democracy I have to believe that there will be an element of shame involved w/ Iran looking at Egypt and thinking, "If they can do it, why can't we?" I haven't seen this written about elsewhere, tho I have seen some discusses of shame re: Egypt's revolution (that looking at places like Tunisia they felt, 'well certainly we can do the same').

(obv this is just idle speculation, i don't live in either Iran or Egypt)

idk, they are pretty different countries. and "_______ have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them" works for almost everywhere, doesn't it?

tho I have seen some discusses of shame re: Egypt's revolution

this was definitely prevalent in some of the interviews I caught on Al Jazeera this morning.

has there been a response from Israel...? They must be freaking the fuck out. Has Hamas said anything?

The govmt in Iran maintains that it is an Islamic Republic which itself was the result of the 1979 revolution so, presto, they don't have to compete w/filthy Arab Sunnis anywhere in that regard. What actual Persians think is another matter.

that's why i'm hesitant to speculate esp when you're applying some kind of broad armchair psychoanalysis to an entire country/region etc. but obv historical relationships do have some impact on these things and that's why stuff like the 'demonstration effect' even exists and helps explain why it takes hold in some places and not others. like i'd be very surprised if Egypt had an affect on, say, Syria. xxp

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world/middleeast/11iran.html?ref=iran

Iran’s authorities have increased pressure on the country’s political opposition days before a rally proposed by opposition leaders in support of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

"_______ have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them"

Until Mohammed, the Arabs weren't much in the way fo regional players. Persia was a great empire a thousand years before.

Hamas should be freaking out themselves tbh - they may have won an election once but by rights they should be facing revolts next

I'm very interested in seeing if Gaza reacts to this. The ppl there may not even have the economic/social stability to stage this kind of revolt, and Hamas doesn't seem to have any compunctions about using coercive violence to remain in power, so...

I assume that no matter what happens in Egypt now, Egypt holding up their end of the blockade is going to be an open question

The one significant thing about this for the Arabs everywhere is that Egypt is by far the most influential Arab country when it comes to music, TV and movies.

tbqh, egyptian blockade (and closed border) has been a joke for awhile. probably the best thing for the Gaza ppl would be if Egypt opens up the border + immigration more and gives Gaza residents an opportunity to work across the border, emigrate if desired, increase the flow of information from outside the little Gaza context, it could be a really great thing.

also, re Saudi, I have little idea of the scope for revolts there but suspect it's minimal and in any case may well be in the opposite direction from democracy aiui

i guess i feel like there are many reasons to be skeptical of what's going on, but the potential upside is so high and it's not like the status quo was worth anything anyway, so why not be positive and hope that there are positive reverberations?

has this been posted itt?

http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/5417/Egypt/Politics-/Army-and-presidency-at-odds--says-former-intellige.aspx

Maj. Gen. Safwat El-Zayat, a former senior official of Egypt’s General Intelligence and member of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Affairs, asserted, in an interview with Ahram Online, that the address delivered by President Mubarak last night was formulated against the wishes of the armed forces, and away from their oversight. He claimed that Vice Preisdent Omar Suleiman’s address, which came on the heels of Mubarak’s address, was equally in defiance of the armed forces and away from its oversight.

Attributing this information to his own sources within the Egyptian military, Maj. Gen. El-Zayat said there was now a deep cleavage between the armed forces, represented in its Supreme Council, and the Presidential authority, represented in both President Mubarak and his Vice President, Omar Suleiman.

According to El-Zayat, communiqué #2 issued this morning by the Supreme Armed Forces Council was not, as many people in Egypt and elsewhere understood it, an affirmation of the addresses of Mubarak and Suleiman, but rather an attempt to avoid an open conflict, while at the same time underlining that the army will act as guarantor for the transition to full democracy. He adivced that people should listen carefully to the anticipated communique #3.

not sure of the timing of this, has "communique #3" come out?

The one significant thing about this for the Arabs everywhere is that Egypt is by far the most influential Arab country when it comes to music, TV and movies.

― Le mépris vient de la tête, la haine vient du cœur (Michael White), Friday, February 11, 2011 2:08 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

and its by far far the largest

comunique 3 (or excerpts at least from the guardian)

"The council will issue a statement outlining the steps and procedures and directives that will be taken, confirming at the same time that there is no alternative to the legitimacy acceptable to the people."

"The supreme council of the armed forces is saluting President Hosni Mubarak for all he has given in sacrifice in times of war and peace."

"The supreme council of the armed forces is also saluting the spirits of those who were martyred."

biden's first correct use of "literally"?

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/02/vice-president-biden-us-has-largely-spoken-with-one-voice.html

“You may remember that all this began when a fruit vendor in Tunisia,” -- protesting that nation’s “corrupt government and stagnant economy -- literally set himself on fire,” the vice president said, “and in doing so ignited the passions of millions and millions of people throughout that region. Word spread across national boundaries and movements emerged, led by people no older than some of the students in this room, using some of the same social media tools that the students in this room, many of you, use.”

Egypt is by far the most influential Arab country when it comes to music, TV and movies.

Really? Maybe only since Iran started throwing filmmakers in jail.

or maybe cause iran isn't an arab country

Lolololololol

close enough

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02/what-is-the-muslim-brotherhood

not that i have any way of judging but this looks like an ok primer

close enough

for you

Um, somehow I don't think the Iranian films that play at Film Forum have widespread influence in the Arab world.

True 'nuff

Oum Kalthoum, Om Kolthom, Om Kalsoum, Omm Kalsoum, Omme Kolsoum, Oom Koolsum, Oum Kalthoum, Oum Kalthum, Oum Kalsoum, Oum Kaltsoum, Oum Kolthoum, Oum Koulsoum, Oum Kulthum, Oum Kulthume, Um Kalthoum,

Old-school Egyptian singing legend

oh fuck yeah, she's practically a deity

she also has one of the most fun names to say of any performer

close enough

― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Friday, February 11, 2011 1:34 PM (46 minutes ago) Bookmark

rmde