a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

the contents of mubarak's frozen accounts will do nicely

xpost

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

yeah i don't think any of the ingredients are there for it i.e. snowballing trade unionism, women in the workforce, educated and disaffected youth, etc

Tracer

xposts to fivelive thing

I hope so!

I have to go now, but the stuff you posted earlier about to what extent this is a leftist/union moment is really interesting. The April 6 Youth Movement dudes seem to use explicitly socialist revolutionary language.

totally!

i mean this is really basic, leftism 101 stuff undergirding all this

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

― Le mépris vient de la tête, la haine vient du cœur (Michael White), Friday, February 11, 2011 5:38 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

ehh i don't think most saudis are well off

think uprising/revolution 101 is that they happen when things are getting a little better, not when they're absolutely terrible

that use of 101 was an xpost

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lgaeezEJor1qzzw5do1_500.jpg

tbh, i think the iranians are next

and apparently they agree -- they're jamming radio reports from Egypt: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2011/feb/11/bbc-iran

I agree w/u/r 101 received wisdom generally but Saudis are better off than many oil poor contries in the region.

they're jamming radio reports from Egypt

Ha ha, it is to laugh!

The Foreign Affairs link I posted upthread gives a good overview of the diverse interests behind this revolt. The fact that it was so diverse and so broad based is why it has succeeded in toppling the regime. Winning the revolution is another thing entirely.

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

mw that was a good article but i think mine was even better :)

whichever one you read, it becomes pretty clear that there is a specific constellation of circumstance and alliance that allowed this to happen in egypt in 2011

... in spite of various experts telling us just after the Tunisian uprising that it would never happen in Egypt

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

Never say never...

well i think there were a lot of good reasons to think it wouldn't! not saying it was inevitable or something

(xpost)

yeah in all these civll disobedience situations youre daring the security forces to crack down, if they wont youve separated the government from their ability to control the people, iranian security forces were totally happy to the uprising

of course that sentiment is subject to shift

Feel better for that Egyptian guy who was on Channel 4 News last night being interviewed by Jon Snow and who was welling up and trying manfully not to cry

happy to crush the uprising

that it would never happen in Egypt

I wouldn't have bet on it.

yes the state and military institutions are structured much differently in iran

the two countries really could not be more different

The Iranian regime is in some ways more like the Chinese regime in its skill at supressing dissident thought

MASR MASR MASR

of course these regimes always seem adamantine right up until they fall

"Crowds march past pres palace en route to Tahrir, pointing to the street and chanting 'Here, here, the Egyptians are here'"

cf bbc news reporter right now, i really really really hope we don't find out next week that this was actually just a military coup, i.e. "no one could have imagined just last week that (x)"

well it couldnt be just a military coup as it was sparked by a citizen uprising

iranian security forces were totally happy to (crush) the uprising

Also Basijis...

yah i was including them, nice people

You know who else I'd love to interview today? Zawahiri.

A couple of questions immediately spring to mind regarding all this:

When will there be elections?

What's up with the police? Are they coming back or will that have to wait a major overhaul? What will be done with the many people arrested by the govmt and also by the protesters/neighborhood watch groups?

Will the 15% increase in min wage stand?

When is the next football game?

tbh, i think the iranians are next

hope yr right, but i wouldn't bet on it

http://blog.caranddriver.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Axis-of-Evil-Iran-Place-440x268.jpg

he doesn't seem worried.

http://twitter.com/M_Ahmadinejad/status/36115893012406273

You know who else I'd love to interview today? Zawahiri.

^^^for realz

only 1900 points?

he can do better.

i sense this is an official twitter account

M_Ahmadinejad Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Had a weird dream again: I was working in a factory and Hosni Mubarak came in, picked me up, and carried me out and everybody clapped.

folks if you didn't see this

Irrational Paranoia!

sorta amusing

ah key question resolved

M_Ahmadinejad Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Great Satans! To clear things up, this account is a real as Snooki's tan; as real as Dick Cheney's heart; as real as Bristol Palin's rhythm.

i'm not sure how polite it is to express this sentiment, but i know that there are a lot of tenses wrt persians v. arabs and that persians in Iran have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them. it's certainly clear that Iran considers itself a hegemonic regional power and all that, but wrt democracy I have to believe that there will be an element of shame involved w/ Iran looking at Egypt and thinking, "If they can do it, why can't we?" I haven't seen this written about elsewhere, tho I have seen some discusses of shame re: Egypt's revolution (that looking at places like Tunisia they felt, 'well certainly we can do the same').

(obv this is just idle speculation, i don't live in either Iran or Egypt)

idk, they are pretty different countries. and "_______ have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them" works for almost everywhere, doesn't it?

tho I have seen some discusses of shame re: Egypt's revolution

this was definitely prevalent in some of the interviews I caught on Al Jazeera this morning.

has there been a response from Israel...? They must be freaking the fuck out. Has Hamas said anything?

The govmt in Iran maintains that it is an Islamic Republic which itself was the result of the 1979 revolution so, presto, they don't have to compete w/filthy Arab Sunnis anywhere in that regard. What actual Persians think is another matter.

that's why i'm hesitant to speculate esp when you're applying some kind of broad armchair psychoanalysis to an entire country/region etc. but obv historical relationships do have some impact on these things and that's why stuff like the 'demonstration effect' even exists and helps explain why it takes hold in some places and not others. like i'd be very surprised if Egypt had an affect on, say, Syria. xxp

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world/middleeast/11iran.html?ref=iran

Iran’s authorities have increased pressure on the country’s political opposition days before a rally proposed by opposition leaders in support of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

"_______ have historically considered themselves much more advanced that the other countries around them"

Until Mohammed, the Arabs weren't much in the way fo regional players. Persia was a great empire a thousand years before.