a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

hella outgoing links in this piece:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/the-internet-explodes-as-egypts-dictator-finally-quits/

reporter just asked him if they plan to prosecute the dictatorship and he said it's time to look toward the future

I think it's essential to recognize that while the military may currently be in control, this is the same military that refused to fire upon its own people. So that's something. If it was a military lead coup, that'd be another animal entirely.

the things MW mentions are a bit remote and the outcome of the civil war was sort of fucked up

So why does this stand outside the Palace of Westminster then?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9uZT4Lt5cTQ/SdvMydQQ28I/AAAAAAAABio/33J89n7gAkM/s400/Cromwell.jpg

... better photo:

http://cache2.asset-cache.net/xc/82643821.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF8789215ABF3343C02EA54855FB8E1FCE045D7AFD4600325CF8430EEC7AD67650B91748E30A760B0D811297

oh everybody gets a statue, nbd

xpost to Josh

This is the same military that has been in control since 1952, that Mubarak was part of (he was head of the Air Force), that is entangled with every level of government in the country and has a finger in business deals, and is not about to give that all up.

They've positioned themselves very cleverly as somehow a neutral force between the people and the regime, but in reality they are the regime.

Just saying protesters have to keep the pressure on.

to my knowledge there's no major statue of richard 'lord protector' cromwell. but i mean there's yer answer really. it was going to go hereditary.

other democracies have avoided this problem, of course.

xpost

oh everybody gets a statue, nbd

Indeed, but its positioning is a tad significant

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Naguib_Sawiris.jpg/200px-Naguib_Sawiris.jpg

Sawaris

Aw yeah, I've just found out - awesome news!

the footage is just beautiful

jamie, guy on fivelive just now says

"In 1952 many of the senior officers preferred the monarchy, while the younger ones - including a young colonel called Gamal Abdul Nasser - favoured a successful coup against the old system. What has happened today is that the old Nasserite system - a vaguely Socialist military dictatorship heavily dependent on an unpleasant secret police - has collapsed. The military will continue to run Egypt for the moment, but only until presidential elections are held in September if not before. After that, it is impossible to say, but there cannot be a return to what Egypt has experienced until today."

switzerland has apparently just frozen mubarak's accounts

anyway, my point was that, from a US perspective "1776" and "the founders" have a totemic power. all kinds of totally contradictory political impulses over the past 200 years have used that memory. i'm talking out my butt here; the bastille etc is sorta important to french ppl but i am less familiar with the poetic-historical stuff that goes along with other democracies. a little enlightenment talk here, some nationalism there, some founding heroes, a war, i dunno. this stuff matters!

in mubarak's speech, he said his proudest memory was standing in the sinai as a young officer, so clearly he had an idea of what events his power flowed from. doesn't seem like anyone agreed anymore!

the military has been in control of egypt since forever but i cant imagine they havent been put on notice by this uprising - i doubt this will result in everyones wildest democratic/economic fantasy - but likely well see some real reform of the government and greater participation from the people

youve got to think at the v least this has changed the average citizens opinion of their ability to affect the government

Looking on factbook and wiki, the economic reforms since '91 are perhaps a bit more than mere cronyism but the economy needs lots of help and at least 20% of the populace lives in poverty

I'd love to think the Saudis were next, but wishful thinking perhaps

the contents of mubarak's frozen accounts will do nicely

xpost

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

yeah i don't think any of the ingredients are there for it i.e. snowballing trade unionism, women in the workforce, educated and disaffected youth, etc

Tracer

xposts to fivelive thing

I hope so!

I have to go now, but the stuff you posted earlier about to what extent this is a leftist/union moment is really interesting. The April 6 Youth Movement dudes seem to use explicitly socialist revolutionary language.

totally!

i mean this is really basic, leftism 101 stuff undergirding all this

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

― Le mépris vient de la tête, la haine vient du cœur (Michael White), Friday, February 11, 2011 5:38 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

ehh i don't think most saudis are well off

think uprising/revolution 101 is that they happen when things are getting a little better, not when they're absolutely terrible

that use of 101 was an xpost

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lgaeezEJor1qzzw5do1_500.jpg

tbh, i think the iranians are next

and apparently they agree -- they're jamming radio reports from Egypt: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2011/feb/11/bbc-iran

I agree w/u/r 101 received wisdom generally but Saudis are better off than many oil poor contries in the region.

they're jamming radio reports from Egypt

Ha ha, it is to laugh!

The Foreign Affairs link I posted upthread gives a good overview of the diverse interests behind this revolt. The fact that it was so diverse and so broad based is why it has succeeded in toppling the regime. Winning the revolution is another thing entirely.

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

mw that was a good article but i think mine was even better :)

whichever one you read, it becomes pretty clear that there is a specific constellation of circumstance and alliance that allowed this to happen in egypt in 2011

... in spite of various experts telling us just after the Tunisian uprising that it would never happen in Egypt

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

Never say never...

well i think there were a lot of good reasons to think it wouldn't! not saying it was inevitable or something

(xpost)

yeah in all these civll disobedience situations youre daring the security forces to crack down, if they wont youve separated the government from their ability to control the people, iranian security forces were totally happy to the uprising

of course that sentiment is subject to shift

Feel better for that Egyptian guy who was on Channel 4 News last night being interviewed by Jon Snow and who was welling up and trying manfully not to cry

happy to crush the uprising

that it would never happen in Egypt

I wouldn't have bet on it.

yes the state and military institutions are structured much differently in iran

the two countries really could not be more different

The Iranian regime is in some ways more like the Chinese regime in its skill at supressing dissident thought

MASR MASR MASR

of course these regimes always seem adamantine right up until they fall

"Crowds march past pres palace en route to Tahrir, pointing to the street and chanting 'Here, here, the Egyptians are here'"

cf bbc news reporter right now, i really really really hope we don't find out next week that this was actually just a military coup, i.e. "no one could have imagined just last week that (x)"

well it couldnt be just a military coup as it was sparked by a citizen uprising

iranian security forces were totally happy to (crush) the uprising

Also Basijis...