a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Personally, I'm not cynical, but I am nervous.

As of now, we have a military government.

Trying to guess what Kenneth Cole is thinking right about now.

they, not we, obv

maybe the brits don't

Magna Carta, Civil War, Glorious Revolution, Chartists, Suffrage movmnt...

The man in charge now

i think every democracy has to have some kind of popular mythic element. maybe the brits don't, lol. it's always possible for things to go wrong, but i think the memory of this moment will reverberate and further politics will have to be grounded in it.

― goole, Friday, February 11, 2011 5:11 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark

the closest we have is the second world war and the transition to s.thing like social democracy that followed -- it used to be quite potent

the things MW mentions are a bit remote and the outcome of the civil war was sort of fucked up

State radio reported that Naguib Sawiris, a wealthy and widely respected businessman, has agreed to act as a mediator between the opposition and the authorities in carrying through the political reforms, a development that was cheered by protesters

NY Times

well that and the fact that there's still a queen ffs

xpost

Naguib Sawiris, the self-proposed chair of the "Transitional Council of Wise Men", is similar in some ways to Badrawy. Sawiris is a patriotic, successful nationalist businessman. Sawiris heads the largest private-sector company in Egypt, Orascom. This firm has built railways, beach resorts, gated-cities, highways, telecom systems, wind farms, condos and hotels. He is a major Arab world and Mediterranean region financier.

He is also the banner carrier for Egypt's developmentalist nationalists. On February 4, Sawiris released a statement proposing a council of wise men who would oversee Suleiman and the police - and who would lead Egypt through the transition. The proposed council would be a so-called "neutral, technocratic" body that would include Sawiris, along with a couple of non-ideological members of the Muslim Brotherhood's business wing, some strategic-studies experts, and a Nobel Prize winner. Would this Nobel winner be Mohammed ElBaradei, the peace laureate and opposition leader? Nope. They had found an Egyptian laureate in organic chemistry.

They have a queen, Tracer, 'cause the last time they tried a republic Christmas got banned and theaters were closed.

Congrats to DJ /rupture for pulling down the statue of Obama in Cairo

more like Govt/rupture

I don't know anything about Sawiris but as I touched upon upthread, the number of people in Egypt reliant on the public sector is huge and a massive burden on the economy. Mubarak's so-called neo-liberalism of late was really not much more than cronyism.

elbaradei being interviewed on al-j right now

hella outgoing links in this piece:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/the-internet-explodes-as-egypts-dictator-finally-quits/

reporter just asked him if they plan to prosecute the dictatorship and he said it's time to look toward the future

I think it's essential to recognize that while the military may currently be in control, this is the same military that refused to fire upon its own people. So that's something. If it was a military lead coup, that'd be another animal entirely.

the things MW mentions are a bit remote and the outcome of the civil war was sort of fucked up

So why does this stand outside the Palace of Westminster then?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9uZT4Lt5cTQ/SdvMydQQ28I/AAAAAAAABio/33J89n7gAkM/s400/Cromwell.jpg

... better photo:

http://cache2.asset-cache.net/xc/82643821.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF8789215ABF3343C02EA54855FB8E1FCE045D7AFD4600325CF8430EEC7AD67650B91748E30A760B0D811297

oh everybody gets a statue, nbd

xpost to Josh

This is the same military that has been in control since 1952, that Mubarak was part of (he was head of the Air Force), that is entangled with every level of government in the country and has a finger in business deals, and is not about to give that all up.

They've positioned themselves very cleverly as somehow a neutral force between the people and the regime, but in reality they are the regime.

Just saying protesters have to keep the pressure on.

to my knowledge there's no major statue of richard 'lord protector' cromwell. but i mean there's yer answer really. it was going to go hereditary.

other democracies have avoided this problem, of course.

xpost

oh everybody gets a statue, nbd

Indeed, but its positioning is a tad significant

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Naguib_Sawiris.jpg/200px-Naguib_Sawiris.jpg

Sawaris

Aw yeah, I've just found out - awesome news!

the footage is just beautiful

jamie, guy on fivelive just now says

"In 1952 many of the senior officers preferred the monarchy, while the younger ones - including a young colonel called Gamal Abdul Nasser - favoured a successful coup against the old system. What has happened today is that the old Nasserite system - a vaguely Socialist military dictatorship heavily dependent on an unpleasant secret police - has collapsed. The military will continue to run Egypt for the moment, but only until presidential elections are held in September if not before. After that, it is impossible to say, but there cannot be a return to what Egypt has experienced until today."

switzerland has apparently just frozen mubarak's accounts

anyway, my point was that, from a US perspective "1776" and "the founders" have a totemic power. all kinds of totally contradictory political impulses over the past 200 years have used that memory. i'm talking out my butt here; the bastille etc is sorta important to french ppl but i am less familiar with the poetic-historical stuff that goes along with other democracies. a little enlightenment talk here, some nationalism there, some founding heroes, a war, i dunno. this stuff matters!

in mubarak's speech, he said his proudest memory was standing in the sinai as a young officer, so clearly he had an idea of what events his power flowed from. doesn't seem like anyone agreed anymore!

the military has been in control of egypt since forever but i cant imagine they havent been put on notice by this uprising - i doubt this will result in everyones wildest democratic/economic fantasy - but likely well see some real reform of the government and greater participation from the people

youve got to think at the v least this has changed the average citizens opinion of their ability to affect the government

Looking on factbook and wiki, the economic reforms since '91 are perhaps a bit more than mere cronyism but the economy needs lots of help and at least 20% of the populace lives in poverty

I'd love to think the Saudis were next, but wishful thinking perhaps

the contents of mubarak's frozen accounts will do nicely

xpost

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

yeah i don't think any of the ingredients are there for it i.e. snowballing trade unionism, women in the workforce, educated and disaffected youth, etc

Tracer

xposts to fivelive thing

I hope so!

I have to go now, but the stuff you posted earlier about to what extent this is a leftist/union moment is really interesting. The April 6 Youth Movement dudes seem to use explicitly socialist revolutionary language.

totally!

i mean this is really basic, leftism 101 stuff undergirding all this

Saudis are well-off, though, and no-one is willing to rock the boat.

― Le mépris vient de la tête, la haine vient du cœur (Michael White), Friday, February 11, 2011 5:38 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

ehh i don't think most saudis are well off

think uprising/revolution 101 is that they happen when things are getting a little better, not when they're absolutely terrible

that use of 101 was an xpost

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lgaeezEJor1qzzw5do1_500.jpg

tbh, i think the iranians are next

and apparently they agree -- they're jamming radio reports from Egypt: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2011/feb/11/bbc-iran

I agree w/u/r 101 received wisdom generally but Saudis are better off than many oil poor contries in the region.

they're jamming radio reports from Egypt

Ha ha, it is to laugh!

The Foreign Affairs link I posted upthread gives a good overview of the diverse interests behind this revolt. The fact that it was so diverse and so broad based is why it has succeeded in toppling the regime. Winning the revolution is another thing entirely.

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

mw that was a good article but i think mine was even better :)

whichever one you read, it becomes pretty clear that there is a specific constellation of circumstance and alliance that allowed this to happen in egypt in 2011

... in spite of various experts telling us just after the Tunisian uprising that it would never happen in Egypt

I dunno they tried this in Iran just a year ago, didn't work out so well iirc

Never say never...