a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

King Abdullah gets in a fight with Hosni over who has to clean the bathroom

x-post Fun fact: I once (literally) stumbled into an open house at the EU headquarters in Belgium. The English language tour group we were stuck in was mostly Romanians, because apparently Romanian is one of the hardest languages to translate so when in doubt the EU usually just defaults to English.

speaking of Romania, I think one of the key differences here is that what really did Ceaucescu in was the the upper military turned against him - Gen. Stanculescu (who grabbed Ceaucescu, put him on trial, and had him shot) was Ceaucescu's Deputy Minister of Defense up until 3 days before the "trial". The only people who stayed loyal to Ceaucescu were the secret police. It isn't really clear how enamored of Mubarak Egypt's military command is, but I don't think they'll be complicit in his trial and murder. Maybe they'll just let a mob do it, but I dunno...

(btw the only reason I know that is because I am reading Sebestyen's "1989" right now - loads of crazy parallels)

seems the military has a lot to gain by pulling him out of there, unless they really think they can put this whole thing back in the box

i've stumbled into a bit of a wikipedia hole. didn't know that ceauşescu's daughter zoia was a mathematician, and that she died of lung cancer a month after her playboy brother died of cirrhosis. (their other brother is a physicist, and still alive.)

not that they need my approval but these protestors are so incredibly impressive--cant even count the number of times over the last two weeks when i thought "this is probably it, everyone will go home now," and they just stuck it out

Well, the question is what happens when he outright orders them to fire on protestors. They said they wouldn't, but he also hasn't told them to yet. If he does and they go the full Iran, this revolt will go into remission. If they don't, then it's more or less over.

Mohamed ElBaradei: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now"

it seems like there's also an internal split in the army between the actual conscripted troops and the upper echelons of command. at least, that's what it seems like.

I think this whole leaning on "foreign elements" angle is a total PR failure - it will irritate/enrage more than it will persuade. it's like he's telling the millions of protesters they're all dupes of Hezbollah or the US or something.

It's telling that they're playing this 'foreign spies/powers aspect' so much. It's a country repeatedly humiliated by the Turks, the French, the Brits, their own feckless puppet monarchy, and the Israelis (not to mention siding w/the USSR for a while) and this stuff is fresh enough in the minds of ppl like Mubarak (especially in his coccoon) to actually start to believe his own bullshit. Considering the possibility for mischief in Egypt (esp. in his own mind), he may have convinced himself he's doing something for the long term good of the country. Considering what I've ssen in the demonstrations, the strikes, the cross-overs from his own media and his own govmt., (and considering the fact that I think he's certainly pissed on the constitution not only through ludicrous election results but myriad other whims and bits of cynicism) I think HE is the biggest obstacle to peace, prosperity, stability and progress.

not that they need my approval but these protestors are so incredibly impressive--cant even count the number of times over the last two weeks when i thought "this is probably it, everyone will go home now," and they just stuck it out

― max, Thursday, February 10, 2011 5:23 PM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

"foreign elements" angle is a total PR failure

The kids are not only savvy enoug but they don't come from the generation that remembers the Brits. They may resent US tutelage of the army but right now they just want the old guard to get tf out of the way already.

Yeah, max, whatever happens, I will always admire the dedication and patriotism of the protesters.

The kids are not only savvy enoug but they don't come from the generation that remembers the Brits.

also am pretty sure the kids' memories do stretch back as far as a fortnight ago, when pretty much none of the triggers for their own uprising came from the west

2243: CNN's Ivan Watson tweets: "Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Ambassador to US on CNN: Mubarak "transferred all powers under the constitution to the Vice President."

2246: The ambassador says Mr Suleiman is now the "de facto head of state"

well, that's cleared up!

bit putinish innit

I don't want to get too caught up with the 24 hr news cycle but this 'breaking news' on CNN-

Egypt's ambassador to the U.S. tells CNN that Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman is de facto head of state.

-leaves me o_O. Does anybody in the govmt really know wtf is going on?

A la Putin, you can be an eminence grise, but de facto head of state isn't going to mean much to most other states. Not that they won't confer with Suleiman, but he ain't the head of state while Mubarak's still hanging around.

Good take:

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/10/responding_to_the_worst_speech_ever

-leaves me o_O. Does anybody in the govmt really know wtf is going on?

it's something to do with a (mis)translation - http://twitter.com/bencnn/status/35824108939776000 -

Mubarak said was transferring "salahiyat" - "powers" to the vice president. without the use of the definite article it means "some powers"

- and i haven't seen it cleared up whether he said one or the other

Speaking to Al Jazeera English moments ago, Hossam El-Hamalawy, a blogger and activist, suggested that the military could be divided. He said that the fact units of the presidential guard, not the regular army, are now reportedly guarding state television and the presidential palace could be an indication of an internal split.

if the bulk of the military splits from some elite guard that's loyal to Mubarak/Suleiman... shit is gonna go down

that's a good piece of info there

Seems like the basic strategy at this point for Mubarak & Co. is to say, "Oh, you wonderful protestors! See, you have won and we will do everything you want; and btw, we will do it our way, by our rules, and at our liesure. So, you can go home now and savor your victory."

2006 article that's worth revisiting now

In the summer of 2006, after pressing the Egyptian government for more than a year to restart the country’s nuclear power program, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s foremost political opposition force, escalated its nuclear goals and openly called for Egypt to develop nuclear weapons as a counter to Israel’s nuclear capabilities. Against this background, the group reacted with little enthusiasm to the mid-september announcement by Jamal Mubarak, son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, that Egypt would revive its peaceful nuclear power – without declaring that Egypt would build a nuclear deterrent. (See “Renewed Egyptian Ambitions for a Peaceful Nuclear Program” in this issue of WMD Insights.)

In 2005, revival of the Egyptian nuclear power program had been a rallying cry for the Muslim Brotherhood. In its 2005 parliamentary election platform, for example, it had declared that under its leadership, Egypt would develop “special national programs, such as the nuclear program, the space and aviation program, armaments program, and the bio-technology program.” The party, which currently holds roughly one fifth of the seats in the Egyptian National Assembly (the lower house of the Egyptian parliament), used the nuclear issue to challenge the current Egyptian government, which had shown little interest in nuclear energy, unlike a number of states in the region, including Iran and Turkey.

By May 17, 2006, Brotherhood deputies were openly attacking the Mubarak government for not pursuing an active nuclear program. Ikhwanonline, the official website of the Muslim Brotherhood, stated that Brotherhood “deputies accuse the government of abandoning the nuclear program and [being content with not] building atomic power plants for peaceful purposes and electricity production at the same time many other countries such as India advanced in this field.” (India has not only developed nuclear power for electricity production, but used its peaceful nuclear program as a stepping stone to develop nuclear weapons.)

Despite this initial focus on peaceful nuclear energy, at a July 4, 2006, joint meeting of the foreign affairs, Arab, defense, and national security committees of the Egyptian parliament, Dr. Hamdi Hassan, spokesperson of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary caucus, made clear that his organization was interested not merely in using nuclear power for meeting Egypt’s energy needs, but in creating an Egyptian nuclear deterrent: “We Egyptians are ready to starve in order to own a nuclear weapon that will represent a real deterrent and will be decisive in the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

(article continues at link)

not that they need my approval but these protestors are so incredibly impressive--cant even count the number of times over the last two weeks when i thought "this is probably it, everyone will go home now," and they just stuck it out

― max, Thursday, February 10, 2011 5:23 PM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

Same here.

Something that's become clear to me over the last week or so is that this isn't just some "spontaneous" expression of the people. Some sui generis "NO MAS!" moment. If it were only that, the protestors would have gone home by now. This is the ultimate flowering of a long march towards dignity and self-respect that began with the Egyptian labour movement. The working classes have been practicing how to organize, how to strike, and how to sit in for the past six years.

During the first four years of the current strike wave, more than 1,900 strikes took place and an estimated 1.7 million workers were involved. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/10/trade-unions-egypt-tunisia

In 2008, for instance:

In a country where labor unrest was long thought to be a bigger threat than the demands of the urbanites now flooding the capital's Tahrir Square, El Mahalla el Kubra has long been a source of concern among officials. ... A nationwide protest against high food prices, unemployment and police torture that failed elsewhere exploded into violence on the streets here in 2008, inspiring a youth movement that eventually launched the effort to oust President Hosni Mubarak. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/09/world/la-fg-egypt-mahallah-20110209

The Tahrir protests, on the other hand, were much more of a middle-class phenomenon. Union members joined in but as individuals. However, now organized labor is joining the protests in an organized fashion. And this is really the final push. On Wednesday, Hossam El-Hamalawy said:

Over the past few weeks, since the start of the uprising, the workers have been taking part in the protests but as demonstrators only, not as part of the organised labour movement. They were engaging in independent actions. But now the mass strikes are starting, and we're seeing workers raise not only demands related to their economic rights, but also overtly political demands, and that changes everything. http://www.arabawy.org/

Now the strikes are everywhere:

Around 20,000 factory workers stayed away from work on Wednesday, demanding raise in salaries, Al Jazeera reported. http://gulfnews.com/news/region/egypt/labour-unions-boost-egyptian-protests-1.760011

And professionals have joined in:

Egypt is currently witnessing unprecedented labor and professional unrest in parallel to the popular uprising which has swept through the country since 25 January. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/labor-professional-protests-join-popular-uprising

one thing I am loving are the endless rumours about where Mubarak is.

Someone needs to Where's Waldo? him into one of those crowd scenes.

ok, this is BY FAR the best background overview i've read yet about why and how this is all happening:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/20112101030726228.html

originally from here - http://www.jadaliyya.com/

now NBC News is reporting that Mubarak has left Cairo. Gotta love the chutzpah after they reported he'd resign yesterday.

AP & NYT reporting same.

"Urgent and important statement due from the presidency..."

... not the president, don't know if that means anything

Here, from The Associated Press, is the complete text of a new statement issued on Friday by Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council, the second by the military in as many days:

In view of the ongoing events that will determine the future of the country, and in line with the continuous monitoring of the internal and external developments and the president's decision to delegate his power to the vice president, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces decides to guarantee the implementation of the following steps:

First:
• Ending the state of emergency once the present circumstances end.
• The outcome of the (court) appeals against the parliamentary election and the measures that will follow.
•Implementation of the constitutional amendments and holding a free and fair presidential election in line with the agreed constitutional amendments.

Second:
• The armed forces are committed to shepherding the legitimate demands of the people and strives with firmness and accuracy to ensure their implementation within a definitive timetable until the realization of a peaceful transition that produces the democratic society to which people aspire.

Third:
• The armed forces stress that there will be no detention of the honorable sons of the nation who rejected corruption and demanded reform.
• It [Egypt's military] stresses the importance of resuming work at government's services, the return of normal life in order to preserve the interests and the achievements of our great people.

5:40pm Alaa Abdel Fatah says that the army have now given up and are letting the protesters control the flow of people around the state television building.

Sounds like Mubarak just stepped down!

He did!

This guy!

Suleiman just gave a very brief announcement of it. Mubarak may have left Cairo for Sharm el-Sheik already.

Aaaaaaaannnnnddddddd.... gone!

can i just wow

"Mubarak may have left Cairo for Sharm el-Sheik already." <~ Yes, he did.

this fucking guy

Noodle Vague isn't here, so can I just speak for him, "Mubarak? Get tae fuck!"

Incredible scenes at Tahrir Square... Huge celebrations.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcShn3GhWYfSvThm3Ha_5WvcUo9h7sabxJOndRazIacPKURRZFOVXQ

good news everyone!

!

details??????

wow

You just never know whether you're coming or going with these brutal dictators

l8r