a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Yes. I wish the White House would have pushed for a compromise date--halfway between now and September,say. We'll see how this all plays out.

It sounds like the White House is going to be fine with a slow shift to an interim government. It may take until September which of course is what Mubarak wants but not the protestors (Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then!).

― curmudgeon, Monday, February 7, 2011 10:42 AM (5 hours ago)

if the "president" resigns, the speaker of the parliament acts as the caretaker president until new elections take place, within a timeframe not to exceed 60 days, i think. elbaradei and other protest leaders have suggested suspending the constitution (which they consider pretty much invalid anyway) for up to a year while parties are allowed to form, etc, since 60 days is a pretty short amount of time given the circumstances.* as far as i can tell, none of the american leaders have given this much acknowledgement

*god if only our election seasons could last "only" 60 days over here

Huge crowds today.

AJE is reporting that 20 Egyptian lawyers have filed a petition with the Prosecutor General against Mubarak for stealing public funds. I can't find any article about this yet.

As the authorities and protesters struggle to grasp the see-sawing initiative in Egypt’s 15-day-old revolt, the government of President Hosni Mubarak unveiled a new package of pledges on Tuesday, saying there would be no retribution for young people embroiled in the uprising and insisting that a process of reform was “on the right path.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?hp

Delay, delay, delay with tacit US support

Vice President Omar Suleiman of Egypt says he does not think it is time to lift the 30-year-old emergency law that has been used to suppress and imprison opposition leaders. He does not think President Hosni Mubarak needs to resign before his term ends in September. And he does not think his country is yet ready for democracy.

There are risks in the administration’s go-slower approach on Egypt.
But, considering it lacks better options, the United States has strongly backed him to play the pivotal role in a still uncertain transition process in Egypt. In doing so, it is relying on the existing government to make changes that it has steadfastly resisted for years, and even now does not seem impatient to carry out. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/world/middleeast/08diplomacy.html?hp

this TV interview with Wael is kind of bonkers

the US public is broadly behind the protestors

http://www.gallup.com/poll/File/145991/Egypt_New_Poll_Feb_07_2011.pdf

24. Overall, are you sympathetic or unsympathetic to the protestors in Egypt who have called for a change in the government?
Are you very [sympathetic/unsympathetic] or only somewhat [sympathetic/unsympathetic]?

Very sympathetic 42
Somewhat sympathetic 40
Somewhat unsympathetic 6
Very unsympathetic 5
No opinion 6

however, i guess the muslim-scary stuff is working on the quarter of population in the bubble:

25. From what you have heard or know about the situation in Egypt, all in all, do you think the political changes that are occurring will be mostly good or mostly bad for – [A-B READ IN ORDER]?
2011 Feb 2-5
A. The country of Egypt
Mostly good 66
Mostly bad 19
No opinion 14

B. The United States
Mostly good 60
Mostly bad 26
No opinion 13

some different interpretations of events here...

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/02/08/suleiman/index.html

"Given the long-obvious fact that the Obama administration has been working to install Suleiman as interim leader as a (dubious) means of placating citizen anger..."

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/08/obama_ajusts_on_egyptian_change

"Despite the rapid consensus that Suleiman has been designated as America's man in this process, any acceptance of his role is likely by default rather than design. The administration clearly does not want to allow Suleiman and Mubarak to revert to the status quo ante, or to consolidate a new nakedly military regime."

the long-obvious fact

lol @ calling a week "long obvious"

I'm interested in the ~6% of respondents who think that the changes are good for Egypt but bad for the US -- who are they? Neocons? Realists?

http://www.salon.com/ent/comics/this_modern_world/2011/02/08/this_modern_world/story.jpg

I'm interested in the ~6% of respondents who think that the changes are good for Egypt but bad for the US -- who are they? Neocons? Realists?

― Mordy, Tuesday, February 8, 2011 6:47 PM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark

no-one has a clue what the effect will be for the US. was 'negligible' a possible answer?

come now, you know this whole thing's about the US

tbh, knowing the USA that 6% are probably respondents who forgot what they were being asked about halfway through the interview

Speaking of it being all about the US, I see in a Washington Post editorial that a Egypt working group made up of moderate Dems and neo-con Republicans like E. Abrams who profess to want democracy around the world, are complaining that Obama's State Department is not encouraging Mubarak to move faster on leaving and instituting reforms.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/08/AR2011020805786.html?sub=AR

No surprise that the media is also reporting that Israel, Jordan and Saudia Arabia are all pressuring the US to move slow with its political efforts in Egypt.

welp

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67351/joshua-stacher/egypts-democratic-mirage

Despite the tenacity, optimism, and blood of the protesters massed in Tahrir Square, Egypt's democratic window has probably already closed.

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, over the last ten days the Egyptian state has not experienced a regime breakdown. The protests have certainly rocked the system and have put Mubarak on his heels, but at no time has the uprising seriously threatened Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, have made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, has never balked.

and with Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al urging "restraint," it ain't bloody likely.

http://grab.by/8RvP

think they would rather have bread than freedom tbh

Btw, that guy's in Yemen, not Egypt.

Recent Krugman column connected the steep rise in food prices, especially wheat (think: bread), with the widespread unrest in the middle east. He then connected the steep rise in food prices to crop failures and reduced yields caused by extreme weather events. He then connected these weather events with global climate change.

Thank you, Paul Krugman. Someone needs to be saying these things out loud in the media. He's the only one I can think of, offhand.

given the level of unrest/strikes/riots still going on in Egypt dunno if stacher is really right there

Wael Ghonim: This is no longer the time to negotiate, unfortunately. We went on the street on the 25th, and we wanted to negotiate, we wanted to talk to our government. We were, you know knocking the door. They decided to negotiate with us at
night, with rubber bullets, with police sticks, with water hoses, with teargas, tanks and with arresting about 500 people.... Thanks, you know, we got the message.

lol

Xpost, krugman's drawing from Joe Romm (Climate Progress), who has been repeatedly drawing attention to the issue in recent weeks, who in turn has been pointing to Lester Brown (earth policy institute, food/climate expert), but yeah, ad usual no one is willing to make the connection.

I think people are hesitant to do it because look what happened to Krugman: the Atlantic immediately ran the headline "Paul Krugman blames global warming for middle east uprisings"

In fact, Krugman presented a nuanced argument, that climate change was likely a contributing factor, and unfortunately a factor that will be impacting food production more and more as time passes since, you know, we're not doing anything about it.

yeah i read that article and liked it but sort of half-prepared myself for exactly what you say the Atlantic did

light is shed on the protest organizers http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/world/middleeast/10youth.html

King warned Obama Saudi could fund Egypt

that headline is

strange

There was a ":paper" at the end which made it even worse. It refers to today's time front page story but that is behind a paywall.

US internet memes go global

http://chzmemebase.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/memes-y-u-no-mubarak.jpg

BREAKING NEWS10:32 AM ET
Egyptian Army Officers Are Meeting to Discuss Taking Over Government, State TV Reports

Murbarak quits tonight

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704132204576136101983949120.html

question i guess is to what extent the military are willing to yield to reform and how the protestors react

AP: military commander for Cairo area, told 1000s of protesters in Tahrir Square: "All your demands will be met today"

lmao via @hoosteen

AriFleischer Ari Fleischer
If I were an Egyptian protester, I'd be careful of saying "Mission Accomplished" too soon...
26 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

i guess Mubarak isn't a big Foreign Policy reader

Murbarak quits tonight

amazing. so awesome.

it is!

Except, like always, it's just the miltary making sure that their poltical liability goes away. What are the chances Egypt will really get a truly democratic regime where the Emergency Law is gone and the Mukhabarat are disbanded or at least disempowered and restrained?

i think theyll get something, as far as ~truly democratic~ not likely, tho who knows theres an opening which is more than before

http://i1.nyt.com/images/2011/02/11/world/11egypt3/11egypt3-hpLarge.jpg

whats up w/grabbing this guys head

itll be interesting to see across the middle east the effect of egypt/tunisia acting as a proof of concept - will these governments be able to put the genie back in the bottle

What are the chances Egypt will really get a truly democratic regime

Probably about the chance any of us will anywhere -- not terribly likely. But any kind of representation is better than no kind of representation.

What are the chances Egypt ends up like Turkey used to be, "democratic" with a military that acted with impunity

itd be a big improvement

If there is a tacit understanding, as there was under the Ataturk regime, that 'this is the system you get, guaranteed by the Army, and here's how representative it will be' and they stick to those rules, it will at least assure the ppl that the regime is sticking to its rules.

The same problem besets Iran; they fake elections, eschew any kind of accountability for their excesses, blame 'foreign spies', etc...

"truly democratic"

I can't think of a single country that is "truly democratic" lol

I am cheering improvement here, not the attainment of perfection