a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Otm.

That's the advantage of having an educated, cosmopolitan middle class that is separate from the ruling establishment. Seems like Saudi Arabia and other emirates don't really have that. Makes this kind of revolution less likely, I imagine.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576121663451288944.html

crazy story -- imromptu government among the protesters occupying tahrir square, and the somewhat mysterious presence and actions of the military in all this

the whole thing is somewhat mysterious, firstly i hope egypt gets an improved government, after that i really want to know wtf exactly happened

first reporter killed: http://cpj.org/2011/02/press-attacks-cairo-reporter-dies.php

My colleague, along with four other members of the Malaysian press, were detained and questioned for two hours yesterday but are safe now, thankfully. One of their attackers was carrying a gun, the rest were armed with knives.

the whole thing is somewhat mysterious, firstly i hope egypt gets an improved government, after that i really want to know wtf exactly happened

http://suziweissman.com/

listening to her show today and the first guest emphasized the caprice? (cant find the right word but its close) of successful revolutions he'd studied and how forensics on the exact whys whens and ways a given revolution goes down is usually harder than it seems if not close to impossible (in revolutions w/o a flashpoint event i'm assuming). he didn't get too much deeper than that in the short segment and you're probably asking from a less metaphysical/generic standpoint (hey it was on pacifica) but the comment jogged my memory

yeah that sounds abt right

the NDP leadership resigned. suleiman wants to form an interim government with the prime minister and the defense minister and they're discussing "plans to remove [Mubarak] from the presidential palace". this from here.

i'm assuming an interim government led by an intelligence guy and featuring the secretary of defense is a valentine to the army.

the American envoy says Mubarak should stay for the time being. so i guess that's that..

Presumably/hopefully indicates a facesaving interregnum being plotted out in advance of elections. If so may be a not-bad outcome, though will be spun badly.

KCET in los angeles is airing the English Al Jazerra feed. they've just reported that an Egyptian gas plant was damaged by an explosion. This plant supplies 80% of the power to Jordan; and egypt will suspend power to Jordan for a week while repairs are made. Not good.

!!

If Jordan is relying on a single plant for 80% of their power, that was also "not good". Are there any articles about this you can link to? crazy.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/20112514224368313.html this one says 40%. either way, with Jordan getting all of it's gas from Egypt, the instability in Egypt will spread through the pipelines to Jordan.

Oh, ignore that - it says that 40% of Israel's imports come from Egypt. Need to stop skimming things.

It sounds like this isn't that big of a deal. Gas supply can be rerouted and the damage is not that extensive. Apparently Jordan will not have a disruption in gas supply. There is some suggestion of sabotage though, which could be a troubling new chapter in this saga.

xpost

i was just walking through a kind of confused demonstration in downtown portland's pioneer square and one guy's sign said WE ARE ALL EGYPTIONS.

We are all Egyptrons

ha ha!

Sarah Palin weighs in on Obama's handling of the situation:

"And nobody yet has, nobody yet has explained to the American public what they know, and surely they know more than the rest of us know who it is who will be taking the place of Mubarak and no, not, not real enthused about what it is that that’s being done on a national level and from D.C. in regards to understanding all the situation there in Egypt."

I love when she gets quoted word for word.

i have a headache just from reading that quote

Singing it to a tune probably helps.

It sounds like the White House is going to be fine with a slow shift to an interim government. It may take until September which of course is what Mubarak wants but not the protestors (Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then!).

On the radio program Democracy Now they said tha the Egyptian government is now making press people register with them in order to go to the square.

Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then

Do I favor polling booths over street protests? Yes, but the weakness in Mubarak's position is that he blatantly fudged the results in at least the last two elections.

Yes. I wish the White House would have pushed for a compromise date--halfway between now and September,say. We'll see how this all plays out.

It sounds like the White House is going to be fine with a slow shift to an interim government. It may take until September which of course is what Mubarak wants but not the protestors (Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then!).

― curmudgeon, Monday, February 7, 2011 10:42 AM (5 hours ago)

if the "president" resigns, the speaker of the parliament acts as the caretaker president until new elections take place, within a timeframe not to exceed 60 days, i think. elbaradei and other protest leaders have suggested suspending the constitution (which they consider pretty much invalid anyway) for up to a year while parties are allowed to form, etc, since 60 days is a pretty short amount of time given the circumstances.* as far as i can tell, none of the american leaders have given this much acknowledgement

*god if only our election seasons could last "only" 60 days over here

Huge crowds today.

AJE is reporting that 20 Egyptian lawyers have filed a petition with the Prosecutor General against Mubarak for stealing public funds. I can't find any article about this yet.

As the authorities and protesters struggle to grasp the see-sawing initiative in Egypt’s 15-day-old revolt, the government of President Hosni Mubarak unveiled a new package of pledges on Tuesday, saying there would be no retribution for young people embroiled in the uprising and insisting that a process of reform was “on the right path.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?hp

Delay, delay, delay with tacit US support

Vice President Omar Suleiman of Egypt says he does not think it is time to lift the 30-year-old emergency law that has been used to suppress and imprison opposition leaders. He does not think President Hosni Mubarak needs to resign before his term ends in September. And he does not think his country is yet ready for democracy.

There are risks in the administration’s go-slower approach on Egypt.
But, considering it lacks better options, the United States has strongly backed him to play the pivotal role in a still uncertain transition process in Egypt. In doing so, it is relying on the existing government to make changes that it has steadfastly resisted for years, and even now does not seem impatient to carry out. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/world/middleeast/08diplomacy.html?hp

this TV interview with Wael is kind of bonkers

the US public is broadly behind the protestors

http://www.gallup.com/poll/File/145991/Egypt_New_Poll_Feb_07_2011.pdf

24. Overall, are you sympathetic or unsympathetic to the protestors in Egypt who have called for a change in the government?
Are you very [sympathetic/unsympathetic] or only somewhat [sympathetic/unsympathetic]?

Very sympathetic 42
Somewhat sympathetic 40
Somewhat unsympathetic 6
Very unsympathetic 5
No opinion 6

however, i guess the muslim-scary stuff is working on the quarter of population in the bubble:

25. From what you have heard or know about the situation in Egypt, all in all, do you think the political changes that are occurring will be mostly good or mostly bad for – [A-B READ IN ORDER]?
2011 Feb 2-5
A. The country of Egypt
Mostly good 66
Mostly bad 19
No opinion 14

B. The United States
Mostly good 60
Mostly bad 26
No opinion 13

some different interpretations of events here...

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/02/08/suleiman/index.html

"Given the long-obvious fact that the Obama administration has been working to install Suleiman as interim leader as a (dubious) means of placating citizen anger..."

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/08/obama_ajusts_on_egyptian_change

"Despite the rapid consensus that Suleiman has been designated as America's man in this process, any acceptance of his role is likely by default rather than design. The administration clearly does not want to allow Suleiman and Mubarak to revert to the status quo ante, or to consolidate a new nakedly military regime."

the long-obvious fact

lol @ calling a week "long obvious"

I'm interested in the ~6% of respondents who think that the changes are good for Egypt but bad for the US -- who are they? Neocons? Realists?

http://www.salon.com/ent/comics/this_modern_world/2011/02/08/this_modern_world/story.jpg

I'm interested in the ~6% of respondents who think that the changes are good for Egypt but bad for the US -- who are they? Neocons? Realists?

― Mordy, Tuesday, February 8, 2011 6:47 PM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark

no-one has a clue what the effect will be for the US. was 'negligible' a possible answer?

come now, you know this whole thing's about the US

tbh, knowing the USA that 6% are probably respondents who forgot what they were being asked about halfway through the interview

Speaking of it being all about the US, I see in a Washington Post editorial that a Egypt working group made up of moderate Dems and neo-con Republicans like E. Abrams who profess to want democracy around the world, are complaining that Obama's State Department is not encouraging Mubarak to move faster on leaving and instituting reforms.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/08/AR2011020805786.html?sub=AR

No surprise that the media is also reporting that Israel, Jordan and Saudia Arabia are all pressuring the US to move slow with its political efforts in Egypt.

welp

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67351/joshua-stacher/egypts-democratic-mirage

Despite the tenacity, optimism, and blood of the protesters massed in Tahrir Square, Egypt's democratic window has probably already closed.

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, over the last ten days the Egyptian state has not experienced a regime breakdown. The protests have certainly rocked the system and have put Mubarak on his heels, but at no time has the uprising seriously threatened Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, have made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, has never balked.

and with Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al urging "restraint," it ain't bloody likely.

http://grab.by/8RvP

think they would rather have bread than freedom tbh

Btw, that guy's in Yemen, not Egypt.

Recent Krugman column connected the steep rise in food prices, especially wheat (think: bread), with the widespread unrest in the middle east. He then connected the steep rise in food prices to crop failures and reduced yields caused by extreme weather events. He then connected these weather events with global climate change.

Thank you, Paul Krugman. Someone needs to be saying these things out loud in the media. He's the only one I can think of, offhand.

given the level of unrest/strikes/riots still going on in Egypt dunno if stacher is really right there

Wael Ghonim: This is no longer the time to negotiate, unfortunately. We went on the street on the 25th, and we wanted to negotiate, we wanted to talk to our government. We were, you know knocking the door. They decided to negotiate with us at
night, with rubber bullets, with police sticks, with water hoses, with teargas, tanks and with arresting about 500 people.... Thanks, you know, we got the message.

lol