a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Kermit sure got around but let's be fair, the combination of Farouk, the Wafd and the British was just too much for Egyptian nationalism to bear after awhile.

the underlying issue in all this is really civilian oversight of the military

This what is depressing me. The military have ruled Egypt since its independence and I find it hard to believe they'll give that up, though they may be fine w/getting rid of Mubarak if they have to.

http://grab.by/8Mas

The military have ruled Egypt since its independence and I find it hard to believe they'll give that up, though they may be fine w/getting rid of Mubarak if they have to.

― Le mépris vient de la tête, la haine vient du cœur (Michael White), Friday, February 4, 2011 12:33 PM (36 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

im sure theres a lot true abt that but were it totally accurate mubarak would already be gone no - no one ever fully controls anything much less a lol hueg complex country - this display of people power and its resultant chaos is a real threat to everyone w/a vested interest

From the New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/02/inside-and-outside-tahrir-square.html

The protesters who had been fighting on that corner for two days were grimy but happy; they ate a breakfast of cheap rough country baladi bread and foil-covered triangles of Laughing Cow cheese. Mohammed Gazi, a chemist, wanted the world to know that they were not eating “Kentucky”—a reference to taunts from the pro-Mubarak people about Kentucky Fried Chicken, meaning that the protesters were being fed by the America and the West.

mubarak would already be gone no

Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak all had to play internal politics to get to the top but as military men, even if not toppled by a coup, they're susceptible to the argument that they need to either fall on their sword or get pushed into falling on their sword for the good of the military and the country.

My friend's wife (an Italian reporter) was detained, questioned , had her camera seized, but was thankfully released in the past hour.

Farouk was widely condemned for his corrupt and ineffectual governance

guy knew how to party though

no kentucky jus loling cow nbd - btw i saw a picture of some bandaged but resilient protestors earlier and was struck by how old they were - it was like 10 fully middle aged guys out there mixing it up - impressive!

http://english.aljazeera.net/mritems/Images/2011/2/3/201123114815699784_20.jpg

Is that guy wearing a Gunners' jacket?

Egyptian FA suspends football indefinitely

xxp Some protester a couple days back was talking about having to physically drag away an elderly professor who was throwing rocks at the front lines by the 6th of October bridge.

so now that egypt is grabbing all the headlines, i have no idea what's going on in Tunisia now.

Mohamed Beltagui, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, the outlawed Islamist group that had been the major opposition in Egypt until the secular youth revolt, said that the organization would not run a candidate in any election to succeed Mr. Mubarak as president.

He said his members wanted to rebut Mr. Mubarak’s argument to the West that his iron-fisted rule was a crucial bulwark against Islamic extremism. “It is not a retreat,” he said in an interview at the group’s informal headquarters in the square. “It is to take away the scare tactics that Hosni Mubarak uses to deceive the people here and abroad that he should stay in power.”

smart positioning here

Wow, that is amazing. Good for them.

it's really rather breathtaking how politically shrewd these demonstrations have been, especially without any kind of leadership or structure - the protesters seem to instinctively know precisely which positions will reinforce their leverage (secular, non violent, inclusive), and carefully avoided tactics that would allow them to be more easily demonized. really ingenious almost every step of the way.

Otm.

That's the advantage of having an educated, cosmopolitan middle class that is separate from the ruling establishment. Seems like Saudi Arabia and other emirates don't really have that. Makes this kind of revolution less likely, I imagine.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576121663451288944.html

crazy story -- imromptu government among the protesters occupying tahrir square, and the somewhat mysterious presence and actions of the military in all this

the whole thing is somewhat mysterious, firstly i hope egypt gets an improved government, after that i really want to know wtf exactly happened

first reporter killed: http://cpj.org/2011/02/press-attacks-cairo-reporter-dies.php

My colleague, along with four other members of the Malaysian press, were detained and questioned for two hours yesterday but are safe now, thankfully. One of their attackers was carrying a gun, the rest were armed with knives.

the whole thing is somewhat mysterious, firstly i hope egypt gets an improved government, after that i really want to know wtf exactly happened

http://suziweissman.com/

listening to her show today and the first guest emphasized the caprice? (cant find the right word but its close) of successful revolutions he'd studied and how forensics on the exact whys whens and ways a given revolution goes down is usually harder than it seems if not close to impossible (in revolutions w/o a flashpoint event i'm assuming). he didn't get too much deeper than that in the short segment and you're probably asking from a less metaphysical/generic standpoint (hey it was on pacifica) but the comment jogged my memory

yeah that sounds abt right

the NDP leadership resigned. suleiman wants to form an interim government with the prime minister and the defense minister and they're discussing "plans to remove [Mubarak] from the presidential palace". this from here.

i'm assuming an interim government led by an intelligence guy and featuring the secretary of defense is a valentine to the army.

the American envoy says Mubarak should stay for the time being. so i guess that's that..

Presumably/hopefully indicates a facesaving interregnum being plotted out in advance of elections. If so may be a not-bad outcome, though will be spun badly.

KCET in los angeles is airing the English Al Jazerra feed. they've just reported that an Egyptian gas plant was damaged by an explosion. This plant supplies 80% of the power to Jordan; and egypt will suspend power to Jordan for a week while repairs are made. Not good.

!!

If Jordan is relying on a single plant for 80% of their power, that was also "not good". Are there any articles about this you can link to? crazy.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/20112514224368313.html this one says 40%. either way, with Jordan getting all of it's gas from Egypt, the instability in Egypt will spread through the pipelines to Jordan.

Oh, ignore that - it says that 40% of Israel's imports come from Egypt. Need to stop skimming things.

It sounds like this isn't that big of a deal. Gas supply can be rerouted and the damage is not that extensive. Apparently Jordan will not have a disruption in gas supply. There is some suggestion of sabotage though, which could be a troubling new chapter in this saga.

xpost

i was just walking through a kind of confused demonstration in downtown portland's pioneer square and one guy's sign said WE ARE ALL EGYPTIONS.

We are all Egyptrons

ha ha!

Sarah Palin weighs in on Obama's handling of the situation:

"And nobody yet has, nobody yet has explained to the American public what they know, and surely they know more than the rest of us know who it is who will be taking the place of Mubarak and no, not, not real enthused about what it is that that’s being done on a national level and from D.C. in regards to understanding all the situation there in Egypt."

I love when she gets quoted word for word.

i have a headache just from reading that quote

Singing it to a tune probably helps.

It sounds like the White House is going to be fine with a slow shift to an interim government. It may take until September which of course is what Mubarak wants but not the protestors (Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then!).

On the radio program Democracy Now they said tha the Egyptian government is now making press people register with them in order to go to the square.

Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then

Do I favor polling booths over street protests? Yes, but the weakness in Mubarak's position is that he blatantly fudged the results in at least the last two elections.

Yes. I wish the White House would have pushed for a compromise date--halfway between now and September,say. We'll see how this all plays out.

It sounds like the White House is going to be fine with a slow shift to an interim government. It may take until September which of course is what Mubarak wants but not the protestors (Mubarak and his supporters say that he constitutionally can't leave until then!).

― curmudgeon, Monday, February 7, 2011 10:42 AM (5 hours ago)

if the "president" resigns, the speaker of the parliament acts as the caretaker president until new elections take place, within a timeframe not to exceed 60 days, i think. elbaradei and other protest leaders have suggested suspending the constitution (which they consider pretty much invalid anyway) for up to a year while parties are allowed to form, etc, since 60 days is a pretty short amount of time given the circumstances.* as far as i can tell, none of the american leaders have given this much acknowledgement

*god if only our election seasons could last "only" 60 days over here

Huge crowds today.

AJE is reporting that 20 Egyptian lawyers have filed a petition with the Prosecutor General against Mubarak for stealing public funds. I can't find any article about this yet.

As the authorities and protesters struggle to grasp the see-sawing initiative in Egypt’s 15-day-old revolt, the government of President Hosni Mubarak unveiled a new package of pledges on Tuesday, saying there would be no retribution for young people embroiled in the uprising and insisting that a process of reform was “on the right path.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?hp

Delay, delay, delay with tacit US support

Vice President Omar Suleiman of Egypt says he does not think it is time to lift the 30-year-old emergency law that has been used to suppress and imprison opposition leaders. He does not think President Hosni Mubarak needs to resign before his term ends in September. And he does not think his country is yet ready for democracy.

There are risks in the administration’s go-slower approach on Egypt.
But, considering it lacks better options, the United States has strongly backed him to play the pivotal role in a still uncertain transition process in Egypt. In doing so, it is relying on the existing government to make changes that it has steadfastly resisted for years, and even now does not seem impatient to carry out. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/world/middleeast/08diplomacy.html?hp

this TV interview with Wael is kind of bonkers

the US public is broadly behind the protestors

http://www.gallup.com/poll/File/145991/Egypt_New_Poll_Feb_07_2011.pdf

24. Overall, are you sympathetic or unsympathetic to the protestors in Egypt who have called for a change in the government?
Are you very [sympathetic/unsympathetic] or only somewhat [sympathetic/unsympathetic]?

Very sympathetic 42
Somewhat sympathetic 40
Somewhat unsympathetic 6
Very unsympathetic 5
No opinion 6

however, i guess the muslim-scary stuff is working on the quarter of population in the bubble:

25. From what you have heard or know about the situation in Egypt, all in all, do you think the political changes that are occurring will be mostly good or mostly bad for – [A-B READ IN ORDER]?
2011 Feb 2-5
A. The country of Egypt
Mostly good 66
Mostly bad 19
No opinion 14

B. The United States
Mostly good 60
Mostly bad 26
No opinion 13

some different interpretations of events here...

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/02/08/suleiman/index.html

"Given the long-obvious fact that the Obama administration has been working to install Suleiman as interim leader as a (dubious) means of placating citizen anger..."

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/08/obama_ajusts_on_egyptian_change

"Despite the rapid consensus that Suleiman has been designated as America's man in this process, any acceptance of his role is likely by default rather than design. The administration clearly does not want to allow Suleiman and Mubarak to revert to the status quo ante, or to consolidate a new nakedly military regime."

the long-obvious fact

lol @ calling a week "long obvious"