a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Al Qaeda isn't going to give anybody jobs in Egypt and that's what they really want. They may successfully become a more liberal democracy, but their economic straits are going to be much harder to turn around. They seem intent on getting the elite's hand out of the cookie jar and rolling back the oppressive authority of the security services that have been messing with them since the emergency law was put into effect, a law that allowed the c ops to mess with people in many and mostly corrupt ways. I doubt many are in the mood for religious police or anybody to fcuk with ordinary ppl right now and the essential dignity of common Egyptians has been amazing.

It's my impression from news stories that the Muslim Brotherhood is much more interested in limiting any extremism/violence and becoming a part of the new government (obv I'm assuming there will be some kind of parliamentary solution).

I expect the Muslim Brotherhood would be outlawed as a political party, in any event.

I don't think this is likely - the role they've played so far points to genuine political ambitions

yeah i read a bunch abt them a while ago, the specifics escape me, but the overall impression was of a not that extreme anymore nationalist wide ranging political org

don't know if this has been posted yet but live feed from al jazeera in egypt here: http://www.youtube.com/user/AlJazeeraEnglish

M: Hey Omar…you know that there many tweets coming in saying he is going to shut down everything tonight…whatever little internet was left and mobiles and landlines even?

O: Fuck the internet! I have not seen it since Thursday and I am not missing it. I don’t need it. No one in Tahrir Square needs it. No one in Suez needs it or in Alex…Go tell Mubarak that the peoples revolution does not his damn internet!

M: Ha ha! You just gave me a possible title for the piece my friend…

O: Tayyib good. But honestly I mean 40 % of this country is living below the poverty line and a large chunk above that is barely surviving and then you have middle class doctors and lawyers etc and then you have you know rich people like me yaani…I mean it is true that cell phone penetration has improved very much…you know they even say that maybe 60 million have cellphones…you know…but its like those basic yaani really basic mobiles…nothing fancy…no internet bullshit for example…I can tell you that the majority of Egyptians have no idea what Facebook is or what Twitter is! I mean you ask me this everyday—but its true yaani…and look at this… a very basic mobile is from 180 Egyptian pounds…a fancy internet capable phone like an Iphone and that Droid thing or the blackberry cost around 3000 pounds…and I will just talk about the so called middle class for a second…before revolution they said they would increase the minimum wage to 1200 pounds a month…right now it is about 800 pounds…800 pounds to feed a family of 4 maybe more? And then you go and buy an internet enabled phone which costs more than 3 months of your salary?.

Me: So how and why is this whole narrative evolving?

O: You mean all this internet stuff…well before he shut us out on Thursday…there was vibrant communication between a certain and very small class of society in terms of relative numbers…this is the class of people who have ALWAYS been absent and apathetic from the suffering of the Egyptian majority…the poor people…you know that was good…so maybe a little bit through twitter and all the apathetic students and professional class started communicating for the first time…

does anyone else find it odd that Bin Laden/Zwahiri et al have apparently been totally silent through all this?

It's not like these guys can call a press conference. Their "timely" proclamations usually come weeks or months after the fact.

Fuck the internet! I have not seen it since Thursday Go tell Mubarak that the peoples revolution does not his damn internet!

as always, Robert Fisk gets the story-interview no one else gets

Thanks a ton for that al-jazeera live feed! They are reporting that the state run Egyptian TV expects an announcement from Mubarak "soon".

lol wikipedia already updated w Mubarak's declining to run for reelection announcement

oh man been looking forward to this since thursday.

None of them ever seems to master a few simple survival techniques: Don't let the supreme leader's extended family go on shopping sprees; don't publicly spoil some firstborn as if the people can't wait for him, too, to be proclaimed from the balcony; don't display your personal photograph all over the landscape; don't claim more than, say, 75 percent of the vote in any "election" you put on.

^^^lolz. was just remarking to my wife the other day how odd/hilarious it was that none of these guys ever win less than 90% of a vote; like they're incapable of faking a realistic election result

the best is putin, whose crew would win even free elections but who fixes them anyway.

best line in the hitchens thing is

We argued that the supposed attractions of authoritarian "stability" are in fact illusory, since nothing is more volatile and unsafe than dictatorship, which lacks any self-critical method for learning from its mistakes.

although that redundant "self-critical" scuppers the prose. but he's ill.

Mordy and Aimless, you can also get it directly on their site: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

US aid for democracy promotion and civil society in Egypt in 2010
= $24 million

US military aid to Egypt in 2010
= $1.3 billion

so i guess he's dead

http://www.othermeanspolitics.com/uploads/2/2/6/9/2269187/8858284.jpg

i feel like hitchens 'dictatorships fall therefor they must not be constructed v well' formulation doesnt really work irl - i mean mubaraks been in power for 30 years right - that a p good run - you think any elected official wouldnt take 30 years - i mean how longs the n korean regime been rolling - theyve got lol hueg pictures of themselves everywhere - everything in the world eventually fails youve got to look at it in relative terms

looks pretty stoic about it

kinda bemused imo

Hitchens' point is what I've been mulling over all week. What's more stable than a system, if not a particular govmt, that is widely perceived to be legitimate and responsive to real popular feeling? It could be a constitutional monarchy or a republic but it's likely to last longer than a dictatorship or an oligarchy.

ice cr?m, 30 years is pretty short according to the long view and it can be argued that w/o America as bogey-man and PRC as a benefactor, NKorea would have toppled already. Maybe the corollary to his point is that, yes, you can keep an authoritarian regime in power for ages but the more successful you are at it, the poorer and more brutalized the ppl, i.e., Burma or NK.

Obv, the key to any dictatorship is to prevent the mass of people from openly communicating their true thoughts about it. The moment these thoughts become openly available to everyone, the dictator falls.

BTW, the whole point of those thousands of grandiose portraits and statues of the Maximum Leader is to cow you into accepting your insignifigance in comparison and to project omnipresent superpotency. That's why they do it, fella. No mistake being made there.

I like this bit in Hitchens' essay:

None of them ever seems to master a few simple survival techniques: Don't let the supreme leader's extended family go on shopping sprees; don't publicly spoil some firstborn as if the people can't wait for him, too, to be proclaimed from the balcony; don't display your personal photograph all over the landscape; don't claim more than, say, 75 percent of the vote in any "election" you put on. And don't try to shut down social media: It will instantly alert even the most somnolent citizen to the fact that you are losing, or have lost, your grip.

liberal democracy may be more stable from the pov of maintaining a form of government for a long time - but thats not what dictators are after - they want a form that gives them personal power for the longest time

theyd just rather not be voted out of office

Now official. Mubarak won't run again, but intends to stay in power until new elections are held. I predict that minimal sop won't disperse the crowds in Cairo.

It does allow him a small fiction of being 'constitutional'.

tried pretty hard to play on the looting angle.

I noticed he was semaphoring to the military, too. Stuff about how 'I am a military man and therefore think only of my duty to my country.'

I noticed he was semaphoring to the military, too.

Well, that doesn't surprise me at all, plus the Republic was declared under Gen Naguib and then taken over by Gen Nasser.

Did this get posted yet:

http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/Articles/Obama_Muslim_Brotherhood.htm

http://grab.by/8IvM

welp

cool site polyphonic

serious hair dye action (xp)

seems kinda petty/silly to claim that a) his intention not to run has nothing to do with the protests and b) the protests are a result of outside forces trying to take over the gov't

seems like he might want to consider leaving the palace by Friday to avoid being strung up by an angry mob

mubarak being petty.... weird

b) the protests are a result of outside forces trying to take over the gov't

Well in his conception, the People are an outside force.

One of my closest friend's wife's parents are stuck in Egypt at the moment and cant get out. Theyre all freaking out big time.

just me or does mubarak look and sound like a boss in metal gear solid

apparently he's told friends he has a phd in obstinacy.

posting to move bookmark

at the end of this video - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12342611

xpost

order breaking down in Cairo, Anderson Cooper "punched 10 times in the head"

There's a live feed on msnbc.com of a huge rock battle between the protesters and the "regime supporters". Surreal. Really hope this isn't live footage of the beginning of a civil war.

Kristof just tweeted "Mubarak seems to be trying to stage a crackdown not with police or army, but with thugs. They are armed and brutal."

Somebody talk me off the cliff, my stomach is turning.

Al Jazeera is reporting that many of the Mubarak "supporters"/thugs are carrying police IDs. This is basically a Mubarak sponsored attack against the protesters.

Unsettling images... Horrible.