a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

up against the wall the lot of you!

lol no c u *boards g5*

pig see u

Oh Im in love
With Egypt.

Banks and markets apparently to stay closed Sun,, first day of working week, But if Mubarak wants everything to go back to normal, how can banks, markets and much else do that without the internet? Maybe it'll be back on selectively?

evanchill State TV announces Al Jazeera's broadcasting license and press cards are being revoked. Our bureau is packing up. #jan25

But if Mubarak wants everything to go back to normal, how can banks, markets and much else do that without the internet?

Things are obviously a far way from normal, and the internet is the least of it. It sounds like law and order is fundamentally breaking down. The state is ceasing to function beyond the military. My guess is that Mubarak will be gone within 72 hours.

Protests continue across Egypt this morning after five days of civil unrest, clashes with police and looting. But rumours are circulating that President Hosni Mubarak has left the capital to practise his stroke in the safety of a luxury golf resort.

Locals in Sharm-el-Sheikh told reporters they are convinced the autocratic ruler is holed up in his winter residence inside the sprawling complex of the Maritim Jolie Ville Golf Hotel. Mubarak's official plane is said to have been spotted at Sharm's airport.

Unconfirmed reports have also emerged that Egypt's ruling elite are fleeing the country altogether. An unnamed "official" at Cairo airport is reported to have said 19 private jets have left so far, taking the country's plutocracy to the safety of Dubai and other friendly nations.

Among the exodus are said to have been Naguib Sawiris, executive chairman of Orascom Telecom, and Hussein Salem – a close friend of Mubarak's who owns the Maritim Jolie Ville Golf Hotel.

eh 3/5

http://grab.by/8FAX

el-baradei in tahrir square, says "the mubarak regime must stand down"

I thought he was under house arrest? I thought you'd be glued to the football?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/01/30/world/30egyptch_1/30egyptch_1-custom15.jpg

ElBaradei with the protesters.

the thing about elbaradei is that this protest movement wasn't sparked by him, and it never called for his arrival. this movement is genuinely anarchic (so far) in that it seems people don't want a "figure" to step in and assume the reins. it doesn't really know what it wants other than mubarak to step down. but it's not baying for s savior.

it's also a little disappointing - though understandable realpolitik - that elbaradei has already enlisted the support of the muslim brotherhood. one of the exciting things about all this so far is its secularism and youthfulness

and elbaradei = old

I think you can still have a youth movement with an older person at the top; an establishment type who understands the wants and needs of the youth. I'm still trying to understand how Ayman Nour fits into all of this. He was the main opposition leader prior to the protests, right? Where is he?

Also, Hillary Clinton used the phrase "orderly transition" today. Possibly an indication of Washington's waning support for Mubarak.

it seems people don't want a "figure" to step in and assume the reins

but you gotta have one, right? reins have to be assumed. i thought the idea was, best case scenario, elbaradei leads interim govt until free and fair elections are held.

I'm gathering that Ayman Nour supports ElBaradei as interim leader:

AJ quoted Nour saying, "We have formed an opposition committee for change that involves 10 members, represented by El Baradei."

so i guess the protesters have fallen in behind elbaradei and the army, so far, behind mubarak. the generals were the guys he really had to appease i guess.

lotta paranoiac types suggesting the media/internet blackout + mooby out of the city + tanks guarding the square = there is abt to be a massacre

^^^ not endorsing this theory btw

yeah that seems incredibly unlikely given that the only card mubarak even owns is the "i am pretty reasonable as far as it goes" card, and closing the al jazeera office doesn't mean the world's stopped watching.

the world was watching tiananmen square too!

i mean... werent they?

sure but the chinese communist party wasn't clinging to power by its fingernails hoping it could make something out of its decent relationship with the u.s. state department.

like, i guess mubarak could decide that he has the army in his pocket and can institute a military dictatorship and fuck the world, but he's gotten pretty used to good international standing not to mention u.s. money over the years, and the revolt has now progressed so far that i think the time to crush them and say it was for the good of the country and come out of it looking like he cares even remotely about anything except the preservation of his personal power is long gone.

I am also skeptical. China in 1989 was a far more insular society than Egypt (or China today). The Chinese leadership didn't give a shit about the international reaction, or cared little compared to internal stability. Given that, the CCP still needed to truck in troops from the hinterlands to propagate a massacre. Would the Egyptian military even carry out that order?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjFs9CPGhts

mubarak could easily reach a point where he feels like massacring or stepping down are his only options

Would the Egyptian military even carry out that order?

oh yeah this too--the guy just got a skeptical and oats-feeling army back on his side and saying OKAY COOL NOW KILL EVERYONE WHO DOESN'T LIKE ME probably isn't the best way to start them off.

The optimist in me hopes that Mubarak is buying time while he secures his post-power situation and helps ensure a new order is in place for the benefit of his country. My hope is that he'll step down in the next couple of days and a reasonable transitional government will step in immediately followed by free elections in 90 days.

and everyone gets a car!

Let a man have hope!

Oh and I didn't mean to imply that the CCP's decision to use force in 1989 was unanimous and easily reached. Far from it.

The only way Mubarak can stay in power now is with the help of the military, not necessarily using violence but certainly resulting in a military dictatorship, which would mean bye bye US $$$.

Mubarak is buying time while he secures his post-power situation and helps ensure a new order is in place for the benefit of his country.

^^^ First half OTM, second half, he doesn't give a shit about the stability of Egypt.

i think he gives a shit about "stability", but it's a word that has been interpreted broadly

i don't think he is preparing for a massacre for the reason DLH gives; mostly likely he is trying to work towards some settlement in which he or his people keep hold of some important levers of power

This quote from the NYT, in its own way, get to the heart if the problem

When we suggested to an Egyptian friend affected by teargas that he buy onions and use it to diminish the affect of the gas, as we do in Israel and the Occupied Territories, he laughed. He then explained his salary is about 300 Egyptian pounds, and one kilo of onions is three pounds.

Mubarak trying to start a class war?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/africa/31classwar.html?hp

Ayman Adbel Al, 43, a civil engineer inspecting the damage with his two teenage sons, blamed Mr. Mubarak, arguing that he had allowed the growing class divisions in Egyptian society to build up for years until they exploded last week. “I can say that I am well off, but I hate it, too. It is not humanitarian,” he said, showing a picture of himself with his family at the protests Saturday. The only people who wanted Mr. Mubarak to stay in power, he argued, were rich people “afraid for their money.”

Shut uuuuuuup, Joe Biden.

even Egypt is complaining about inequality? Income Inequality, Egypt vs US

American press is always so preoccupied with looting, it's really pathetic. no time for context or in-depth analysis OMG PRIVATE PROPERTY BEING THREATENED!

(^^^ bitterness about the retarded level of coverage from CNN this weekend)

otm

"a discussion as to what the legitimate claims being made are, if they are,"

Assuming he's not just a ventriloquist dummy here, this is why I bailed on the Good Ship Hope when this fucker got picked for veep.

ugh can't somebody muzzle biden right now

speaking of looting:

http://i.min.us/idYYpM.jpg

idk looting's not really been the exclusive preoccupation of the media has it?

also it's public property, the shit people are upset about

xp

I'm primarily bitching about the TV coverage I caught intermittently over the last couple days from CNN and Fox

its sort of touching, even if mubarak does step down and free elections are held etc inevitably old habits/power structures reassert themselves and progress is incremental at best, in some ways this protest is as good as it gets

The blog world hasn't yet conceived of a way to cover inchoate, volatile events like this without looking like jackasses. CNN and FOX News just want continuous shots of brown-skinned sandaled sand people walking off with mummies and DVD players.

clearly not following the old journalistic axiom:

man looting a mummy and dvd player, not news

mummy looting a dvd player, news!

lol