2008 Primaries Thread 3: The Rejecting and Denouncening

cuet!

"Duck! Snipers!"

Theda Skocpol talks out of school about Clintons' voter analysis

Poll, anyone? It's that time of day.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/041408DailyUpdateGraph1_b1v9n2.gif

"bitter" feud really hittin Obama hard eh

Rasmussen's tracking poll doesn't have a pretty graph but has hillary in front by a nose.

uh, no it doesn't.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thanks, Elmo, Pretty graph FTW.

Quoted from Rassmussen site:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 48% to 44%. While statistical noise has created daily fluctuations, this race has remained quite stable for the past month or so.

HRC is 'on a mission to save Democrats from themselves':

In fact, the Democratic race has not been especially rough by historical standards. What’s more, our conversations with Democrats who speak to the Clintons make plain that their public comments are only the palest version of what they really believe: that if Obama is the nominee, a likely Democratic victory would turn to a near-certain defeat.

Far from a no-holds-barred affair, the Democratic contest has been an exercise in self-censorship.

Rip off the duct tape and here is what they would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico).

Republicans will also ruthlessly exploit openings that Clinton — in the genteel confines of an intraparty contest — never could. Top targets: Obama’s radioactive personal associations, his liberal ideology, his exotic life story, his coolly academic and elitist style.

_________________________________

An undecided Democratic superdelegate told us many Jewish voters are itching for a reason to break with the party and side with Republicans, who have embraced the Israeli cause with passion. A small shift could swing swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania, which have significant Jewish populations.
Obama won only about one-third of Hispanic votes on Super Tuesday — and did even worse a month later in Texas. A Democratic nominee needs big margins with Hispanics to win states like New Mexico, California, Colorado and Arizona. In the fall, Obama would be running against a Republican with a record on immigration that will resonate with Hispanics.

Then there’s the lower-income white vote. Does it seem odd that a woman with a polarizing reputation would be rolling up enormous margins among some of the country’s most traditional voters? Three out of every four blue-collar whites in small towns and rural areas of Ohio voted for Clinton over Obama on March 4. The reality is, this is already an electorate with deep cultural divisions — and that’s in the Democratic Party.

_________________________________

The freak show has already signaled its early lines of attack on Obama. Polls show a significant percentage of Americans believe — falsely — that he is a Muslim. Voter interviews reveal widespread unease with minor and seemingly irrelevant questions like why he does not favor American flag pins on his lapel. Nor have we heard the last about Wright and his fulminations.

Here will be the real kitchen sink: every damaging comment or association from Obama’s past, mixed together with innuendo and downright fiction, to portray him as an an exotic character of uncertain values and weak patriotism.

More in the article. Mostly nonsense, I think, especially the notion that HRC's weaknesses have been so vetted that "what Democrats see is what they'll get." Throughout the primary season, HRC has been spared the ugliest innuendos and attacks traditionally made against her -- e.g., "She's a murderer," "She's a lesbian" -- because this is an intra-party fight. But if she somehow wins the nomination, I imagine we'll see a whisper campaign about her that will rival anything that's ever been seen in a GE before.

I think if the "bitter" controversy has any effect we may not see it for another day or two, since many people do not tune in to the news over the weekend, and it's still gaining media traction.

I do think it was a regrettably off-message thing for Obama to say. In the worst case, it could even puncture his unifying message of moving beyond the country's red-state vs. blue-state divide. His description of "bitter" voters was, in a nutshell, the blue-state stereotype about red-staters.

Republicans will also ruthlessly exploit openings that Clinton — in the genteel confines of an intraparty contest — never could. Top targets: Obama’s radioactive personal associations, his liberal ideology, his exotic life story, his coolly academic and elitist style.

This is a bit rich, considering that Clinton has already targeted many of these things (except maybe the exotic life story and liberal ideology).

^^^ This. BTW, my apologies, I worded my prior post badly. I didn't mean that implying that HRC is gay is an "ugly" accusation against her. I meant that I've heard HRC-haters say she's a lesbian, and they clearly intend it as a negative slight against her.

"hil"'s brutally executable points don't fly w/ il

neither does bowling a 37

gonna get walked on by mccain huckabee

WWE

get yrself a gun

go pay your taxes, mkcaine

apparently there are efforts to arrange a special (sub-majority leader) leadership position for Hillary. maybe she really will go guv?

being famous, doesn't she already have that kind of position, de facto? what other primary loser was given that kind of consideration...

being famous, doesn't she already have that kind of position, de facto?

no.

what other primary loser was given that kind of consideration...

it's less than she would seek after losing, i.e. arguably not much consideration at all.

HRC reaction to 'bittergate' has been preposterous. a round of shots? srsly? all of a sudden we hear about her pious, rootin tootin side.

that said, i think Obama's take on the GOP appeal to poor white people is basically wrong. i don't think the tom frank analysis is right. people don't 'cling' to traditional culture because of economic displacement -- if the fortunes of laborers and farmers in PA had been great over the last 30 years, i kind of doubt those folks would be any more gay- or mexican-friendly or want to hunt any less.

the electoral issue, imo, needs to be not what rural whites believe (you can't do anything about that) but what the GOP has done to them: promising protection and continuity (guns god gays immigrants terror) while making life much more unfair and materially difficult. "this is an area where the GOP has played identity politics for decades" is all that should have been said.

i don't think the tom frank analysis is right. people don't 'cling' to traditional culture because of economic displacement -- if the fortunes of laborers and farmers in PA had been great over the last 30 years, i kind of doubt those folks would be any more gay- or mexican-friendly or want to hunt any less.

Frank didn't say that. Frank said that Republicans have been able to dissuade working-class whites from voting in their economic self-interest by appealing to their views on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Obama's use of the word "cling" is what made me cringe, since it distorts an otherwise salient point.

gff, there's nothing "traditional" about contemporary evangelical culture, or militia culture. Those are new innovations over the last 30 years.

There's a blog-post from Huffington Post from someone else who was at that San Francisco fund-raiser:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-coleman/i-was-there-what-obama-re_b_96553.html

This gives a bit more context to Obama's extemporaneous comment. He was answering a question from the audience: "Some of us are going to Pennsylvania to campaign for you. What should we be telling the voters we encounter?" The article goes on:

Obama's response to the questioner was that there are many, many different sections in Pennsylvania comprised of a range of racial, geographic, class, and economic groupings from Appalachia to Philadelphia. So there was not one thing to say to such diverse constituencies in Pennsylvania. But having said that, Obama went on say that his campaign staff in Pennsylvania could provide the questioner (an imminent Pennsylvania volunteer) with all the talking points he needed. But Obama cautioned that such talking points were really not what should be stressed with Pennsylvania voters.

Instead he urged the volunteer to tell Pennsylvania voters he encountered that Obama's campaign is about something more than programs and talking points. It was at this point that Obama began to talk about addressing the bitter feelings that many in some rural communities in Pennsylvania have about being brushed aside in the wake of the global economy. Senator Obama appeared to theorize, perhaps improvidently given the coverage this week, that some of the people in those communities take refuge in political concerns about guns, religion and immigration.

I think this context might improve a bit the impression made by the remarks. For one thing, it seems clear that Obama was trying to create a sense of empathy between the prospective campaign worker who was asking the question and the small-town voters he or she would encounter in PA. I think that what he was trying to do was to help this out-of-state volunteer, presumably someone with more of a blue-state cultural background, to empathize with the people they would meet - to not get hung up on the most visible cultural differences (attitudes towards guns, religion, etc.) but to remember their shared economic interests. In that context, perhaps the statement is more understandable.

I find it hard to believe that militia culture has only sprung up in the past 30 years but I'm only 35.

Can we stop analyzing Obama's comment now? Oh wait, I forgot where I was.

lots of evangelicals and militia types going for HRC?

that's what's so off about this whole thing, it brings up beliefs-cum-electoral-problems that kind of have nothing to do with intramural dem stuff. my guess is the real issue is even more plain and blunt: they don't like the black dude from the city as much as the white woman. guns vs social democracy is something else. what a fucking mess.

xps

Dan, speaking as a the blacks, why do you hate America?

Wait, I mean, speaking as a the X-Men fans, why do you hate America?

I think the black helicopter Michigan / Montana militia stuff was mostly a new thing in the 90s, but I don't know for sure.

Tghe John Birch Society was pretty much a militia precursor. The so-called Posse Comitatus was, iirc, the fountainhead of the modern militia movement. The JBS was definitely more than 30 years ago.

that boy

pronounced 'bway'

eeeeeek.

Please tell me they don't actually get questions this retarded:

http://i30.tinypic.com/2dv5v9k.jpg

"It's funny you should ask. I was talking to God just the other day..."

"Yeahhhhhh, Morgannnnn Fairchiiiiild."

i would srsly love to hear their responses to "does god get to pick the president"

I've just never understood how the gun lobby managed to lay ahold of their "superpatriot" status. They want the ability to attack their own government, and they pay as little in taxes as possible. I'm waiting for the next generation of superpatriots, the ones who pay more in taxes than they need to.

tracer, i think "patriotism" can be a devotion to the people of a country, to the idea of the nation, which may at any given point be ill-served by the government which is its steward. i don't really see a deep-seated ideological contradiction here, although there are certain some lay hypocrisies involved.

certainLY

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/04-14_PAPollsterCompare-thumb.png

Bill Clinton Keeps 'Bitter' Alive

Over seven stops in North Carolina, Clinton said "Everywhere I go there are all these people with signs, saying I'm not bitter - I'm not bitter."

The strong sentiments were appreciated by the crowd, but were not entirely accurate. During Clinton's seven stops in North Carolina on Saturday there were no "I'm not bitter" signs. There was a small assortment of people at his later events wearing stickers with the slogan, but many of those sporting the stickers weren't even sure what they meant.

http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/745/108010.JPG

McCain says "I don't think Obama is an elitist" per AP, but from the same article, McCain's aides can't resist:

McCain's aides responded to Obama's criticism with a taunt.

"It's hard to keep a straight face when you're accused of being out of touch by a guy who thinks the whole country is worried about the high price of arugula or that you hunt ducks with a six-shooter," said Mark Salter, a senior adviser to McCain.

when did John McCain last eat arugula? the public needs to know.

way to insult the arugula farmers!

also, it's not far from 'high price of arugula' to rioting for food because the cost of grain went up 120%

but whatevs I'm not here to give Mcnasty tips on how to win

Campaigning by distortion has made these guys weak players. Obama wasn't talking about hunting duck with a six shooter. If these guys have to attack without distortion, they'll be booed off the field, like Penn.

Huh, I just googled "duck" + "hillary" + "six-shooter" and found a Free Republic post from 2002:

To: Paul Atreides
"...Clinton apparently declined to give further details on her days as a game fowl hunter, including who she hunted with, what kind of rifle she used and how many ducks she killed..."

No woosy shotgun for the former first bimbo!

I can top that though...

I've hunted ducks with a six-shooter...

Drunk and Blindfolded.
19 posted on Sunday, June 02, 2002 10:34:53 PM by DWSUWF
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Behold, the inevitable bitter attack ad.

hey wait a second i noticed SOMETHING in that ad!

http://i26.tinypic.com/2nuqhjt.jpg