2008 Primaries Thread 3: The Rejecting and Denouncening

This forum is the nadir of the entire campaign season.

I don't think that's true, actually. I'm completely fascinated that, in 2008, we're just now getting around to having an open forum where candidates can publicly discuss how faith would inform policy decisions instead of just waiting until after the inauguration and finding out later.

I agree that it could really great to do that, it would be spectacular. But the forum tonight was just a bunch of fluff from where I was sitting. Though I did like Obama's answers re: science and I enjoyed the generally light atmosphere, considering the subject matter. Both the candidates and the moderators had me laughing and kind of enjoying it.

Carl Bernstein on HRC:

What will a Hillary Clinton presidency look like?

The answer by now seems obvious: It will look like her presidential campaign, which in turn looks increasingly like the first Clinton presidency.

Which is to say, high-minded ideals, lowered execution, half truths, outright lies (and imaginary flights), take-no prisoners politics, some very good policy ideas, a presidential spouse given to wallowing in anger and self-pity, and a succession of aides and surrogates pushed under the bus when things don’t go right. Which is to say, often.

And endless psychodrama: the essential Clintonian experience that mesmerizes the press, confuses the citizenry, confounds members of both parties in Congress (not to mention the Clintons themselves, at times) and pretty much keeps the rest of the world constantly amused and fixated.

Such a picture of Clinton Redux is, by definition, speculation. But it is speculation based on the best evidence at hand: the demonstrable and familiar record of Hillary and Bill Clinton coupled together in Permanent Campaign-mode for a generation, waging a continuous fight on the national political stage since 1992, an unceasing campaign for the White House, for redemption, for their ideas (sometimes) and for themselves (almost always), especially in 2008.

O'shea otm with the windsurfing.

god bernstein has become such a hack

this is the heaviest obama's hit back yet y/n

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/tobyharnden/april08/godgunsshame.htm

bernstein's always been a hack. have you read any of his excellent hillary book?

no, but i did note his appearances on talk shows where in trying to sell that book he basically did what he does above, i.e. recycle old dowd and rich columns

Forgive me if this particular "Hillary slammin' back a cold brew" photo has already been posted:

http://observer.cast.advomatic.com/files/imagecache/vertical/files/hillarydrinksweb.jpg

"Waiiiiit...did someone pee in this?"

lol snorgeyes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIxmi3e2Vmo

Barack addresses the United Steelworkers Union in Steelton, regarding Hillary Clinton's recent disingenuous remarks about him.

"She's talking like she's Annie Oakley, Hillary Clinton's out on the duck blind every Sunday, she's packing a six shooter!"

i only read t/s but i hope he says 'come on' like gob.

i'm hoping the fact that the middle class is actually bitter will work in his favor.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/13/coaldale.pa/index.html

She's talking like she's Annie Oakley, Hillary Clinton's out on the duck blind every Sunday, she's packing a six shooter!

see now thats how you windsurf an opponent

I enjoy the sparring side of Obama much more than the pious side of Obama.

sometimes i wonder if Obama has Daily Show staff writing for him

yah zing!obama is a treat

i decided to read TPM today for the first time in awhile and found, below a reprinted letter in which the writer repeats that Hillary and Bill Clinton believe the presidency should be hers "by right", "which we all know", this illuminating graf from Josh Marshall:

For my part, I was basically afraid of flying from almost as early as I can remember. When I was young, it was mainly a yearly ordeal that came up every summer when we would go to Missouri to visit our family (we moved away when I was six). But I was a kid so I had no choice. Then when I was old enough to call my own shots I basically just stopped flying. That was when I was a teenager. And then I flew of my own volition I think twice in college and then that was it. I didn't fly again until I was in my mid-30s. I still don't do it very often. And it's not easy. But I do it. In fact, my last flight, which was a few months ago, turned out to be that nightmare turbulence flight I'd always dreaded. (Yes, I know turbulence doesn't make planes crash; it's not rational.) The key moment for me was when the pilot went from saying we would be hitting turbulence, to a lot of turbulence, to 'severe turbulence' to 'really severe turbulence'.

(continues)

im looking forward to seeing what sort of spicy barbs hell unleash on mccain

uh tracer that wasnt a reprinted letter but rather a letter written to tpm by someone who has actually had direct dealing w/the clintons before.

but yah ty for that v insightful summery of the site - youve really opened all of our eyes to how shitty it is ty!

I enjoy the sparring side of Obama much more than the pious side of Obama..

Mm. I don't. His high-roadisms have been what's winning me over, I am sick to death of people zinging and countering, it just turns me off the whole process big-time.

indeed, let us heed the clarion judgment of the daily howler! hallelujah! xxpost

it was a letter written tp TPM, and marshall "reprinted it" on his site, without comment, is what i meant

i'm glad to be of service. and when i say that i mean it. it's not easy being so great. but i try. (continues for hours)

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2131/2412894197_5231a32d45.jpg?v=0

Interesting article that goes beyond the national vote head-to-head match-up polls, and looks at the electoral math of Obama-vs.-McCain vs. Clinton-vs.-McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/mccains_electoral_college_math.html

The essential conclusion seems to be that despite the fact that this was supposed to be the Democrats' year, McCain is in the cat-bird seat at the moment.

That article is not even remotely accurate. The GE match-ups right now simply reflect the bitterness of the most hardcore Obama/Clinton partisans, 30% of whom are currently telling pollsters they'll vote for McCain if their favorite candidate loses. That simply isn't going to happen once November rolls around. So when Clinton (or less likely Obama) concedes and supports the nominee, the Democratic candidate will shoot up by at least 10% in the polls.

in the open field of presidential politics this canard truth doesn't play too well.

http://www.marriedtothesea.com/gallery-obama-500.gif

So when Clinton (or less likely Obama) concedes and supports the nominee, the Democratic candidate will shoot up by at least 10% in the polls.

I hope that's true. I was surprised to see that according to that article Clinton is performing better than Obama in Virginia in head-to-heads against McCain. That's hard to believe considering that he beat her there in the Dem primary by a huge 28 point margin.

JW, where is that even from?

I was surprised to see that according to that article Clinton is performing better than Obama in Virginia in head-to-heads against McCain. That's hard to believe considering that he beat her there in the Dem primary by a huge 28 point margin.

it's hard to believe because it isn't true

Hmm - strange. Maybe it was a typo for "West Virginia".

it's definitely tightened - SurveyUSA had him doing only a point better than her 3 weeks ago. and maybe Rasmussen or Gallup (both GOP-tied) has her doing better now, but he carefully doesn't give us any supporting evidence.

Once there is a nominee that person will get a poll bounce.

Yeah, the numbers in that Baehr article seem dubious.

This page seems to have up-to-date state-by-state numbers:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_snapshot

Saturday Rasmussen has O and M tied at 47 in NC, while M beats C by 10 points

http://drudgereport.com/jmhrc.jpg

hi!

"ok, you want the cans or the helmet?"
"what did you just say to me??"

cuet!

"Duck! Snipers!"

Theda Skocpol talks out of school about Clintons' voter analysis

Poll, anyone? It's that time of day.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/041408DailyUpdateGraph1_b1v9n2.gif

"bitter" feud really hittin Obama hard eh

Rasmussen's tracking poll doesn't have a pretty graph but has hillary in front by a nose.

uh, no it doesn't.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thanks, Elmo, Pretty graph FTW.

Quoted from Rassmussen site:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 48% to 44%. While statistical noise has created daily fluctuations, this race has remained quite stable for the past month or so.

HRC is 'on a mission to save Democrats from themselves':

In fact, the Democratic race has not been especially rough by historical standards. What’s more, our conversations with Democrats who speak to the Clintons make plain that their public comments are only the palest version of what they really believe: that if Obama is the nominee, a likely Democratic victory would turn to a near-certain defeat.

Far from a no-holds-barred affair, the Democratic contest has been an exercise in self-censorship.

Rip off the duct tape and here is what they would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico).

Republicans will also ruthlessly exploit openings that Clinton — in the genteel confines of an intraparty contest — never could. Top targets: Obama’s radioactive personal associations, his liberal ideology, his exotic life story, his coolly academic and elitist style.

_________________________________

An undecided Democratic superdelegate told us many Jewish voters are itching for a reason to break with the party and side with Republicans, who have embraced the Israeli cause with passion. A small shift could swing swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania, which have significant Jewish populations.
Obama won only about one-third of Hispanic votes on Super Tuesday — and did even worse a month later in Texas. A Democratic nominee needs big margins with Hispanics to win states like New Mexico, California, Colorado and Arizona. In the fall, Obama would be running against a Republican with a record on immigration that will resonate with Hispanics.

Then there’s the lower-income white vote. Does it seem odd that a woman with a polarizing reputation would be rolling up enormous margins among some of the country’s most traditional voters? Three out of every four blue-collar whites in small towns and rural areas of Ohio voted for Clinton over Obama on March 4. The reality is, this is already an electorate with deep cultural divisions — and that’s in the Democratic Party.

_________________________________

The freak show has already signaled its early lines of attack on Obama. Polls show a significant percentage of Americans believe — falsely — that he is a Muslim. Voter interviews reveal widespread unease with minor and seemingly irrelevant questions like why he does not favor American flag pins on his lapel. Nor have we heard the last about Wright and his fulminations.

Here will be the real kitchen sink: every damaging comment or association from Obama’s past, mixed together with innuendo and downright fiction, to portray him as an an exotic character of uncertain values and weak patriotism.

More in the article. Mostly nonsense, I think, especially the notion that HRC's weaknesses have been so vetted that "what Democrats see is what they'll get." Throughout the primary season, HRC has been spared the ugliest innuendos and attacks traditionally made against her -- e.g., "She's a murderer," "She's a lesbian" -- because this is an intra-party fight. But if she somehow wins the nomination, I imagine we'll see a whisper campaign about her that will rival anything that's ever been seen in a GE before.