Irish politics discussion thread

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/67ae51e2-5e35-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html

Decent article from an outside perspective. Bit of the 'soundbite' about a lot of it, but they picked the right soundbites at least. Explains most of the mess and the causes in clear enough terms.

Morgan Kelly in the Irish Times today: Brace yourself-

"Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece.

On the face of it, Ireland’s debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland’s government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)

Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this debt quite quickly. However, in contrast to its inept handling of the banking crisis, the Government has taken reasonable steps to bring the deficit under control. If all goes to plan we should be looking at a debt of 85 to 90 per cent of GDP by the end of 2012.

This is quite large for a small economy, but it is manageable. Just about. What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the bank bailout.

We can gain a sobering perspective on the impossible disproportion between the bailout and our economic resources by looking at the US. The government there set aside $700 billion (€557 billion) to buy troubled bank assets, and the final cost to the American taxpayer is about $150 billion. These sound like, and are, astronomical numbers.

But when you translate from the leviathan that is America to the minnow that is Ireland, it would be equivalent to the Irish Government spending €7 billion on Nama, and eventually losing €1.5 billion in the process. Pocket change by our standards.

Instead, our Government has already committed itself to spend €70 billion (€40 billion on the National Asset Management Agency – Nama – and €30 billion on recapitalising banks), or half of the national income. That is 10 times per head of population the amount the US spent to rescue itself from its worst banking crisis since the Great Depression."

I enjoyed the ft article, thanks.

Trying to get my head around what this means in the simplest possible terms - do these figures mean c. €20k a head of extra taxation to get the public finances back to something like normal?

I think that's about the figure I've seen, but it being a current issue there's about 50 conflicting estimates.

At least it's being talked about. I think we think we'll get out of it with a couple of percent on VAT and civil servants taking shorter lunches.

just had a quick read of the 6.25bn savings osborne announced this am, and i think the next budget's due pretty tough so it's not like it's being ignored. it's probably that you're not as exposed as we are to every single facet of the crash- property, financial services and global investment are pretty much all we have, and we acted like it was all we'd ever need.

And indeed, anyone who suggested otherwise was told to shut up and stop talking down the economy.

pull on the green shirt

I posted a bit from this above, but this, imo, is a great analysis of the biggest choice left to the govt- to continue to accept the banks's debt as sovereign Irish debt (essentially what the Guarantee of late 08 has done) or to rescind that guarantee. If you have the time, etc, etc:

Gloomy reading, but with real options considered

Govt commits further €2bn to Anglo
Monday, 31 May 2010 16:30
The Government has committed another €2bn in funding to Anglo Irish Bank.

The move comes as Anglo's restructuring plan is being submitted to the European Commission today.

A statement from the Department of Finance said the bank needed new funds because of the losses it had taken on the loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency and because of further losses on its remaining loans.

Can someone explain to me how this works? We take risky property loans off them at a discount, and then pay them back the difference a month later?

does anyone have a sub for the irish times online?

cos u can like webmail me?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0610/breaking70.html

Labour polling 32%, FF down to 17% .......

Unbelievable.

If only I could believe it'd last- up til last week FF were gaining ground again.

I've not been following this week at all, surprised that they managed to get the no confidence motion put off til Tuesday. It'll be comfortably defeated, and Cowen will be lauded again for turning around a 'crisis'.

I don't know - the smell of death off Cowen was seeping through the telly last night on Prime Time.

Cowen has to go at some point - his backbenchers don't want to lose their seats at the next election, so they'll get rid of him.

It's about time Labour started to consider just going it alone without either of these fucking packs of jokers, tbh.

Yes, because Labour will certainly be able to win a Dáil majority at the next election.

had a few exited convs. about this in the last couple days

xp-

Will FF?

Will FG?

i dunno, no matter what ppl say, the go ahead and vote FF

u kno urself

So pissed off at FG right now. Gilmore would want to be renegotiating the terms of any agreement, because Kenny is a poor alternative Taoiseach.

xp yeah, there's a big element of truth there, but FF core vote can't be more than 20%, and FG are doing absolutely nothing to convince the other 80% that they're any better.

Dont think i could deal w/ listening to enda kenny anyway

Srsly. A sound man, an awful sound man, but ........

I wonder will he go back to the teaching.

Richard Bruton sacked s FG Deputy leader.

"Asked if he believed Richard Bruton would be the next Fine Gael leader, Green Party leader Gormley said: 'I would have my doubts. The timing of this is a bit strange, frankly.

'They seem to be jumping to the media agenda - which is always a dangerous thing to do. And I would expect Enda Kenny to continue as leader, because he has come out fighting, as I expected he would.'

Asked about the timing of the front bench meeting tomorrow, Mr Gormley added: 'I don't understand this from a political tactic point of view.

'It seems to be quite stupid frankly. But that's a matter for the Fine Gael party and I don't want to intrude into their... It's up to them to choose whoever their leader is.

'But as I've said, Mr Kenny has come out fighting and I would expect he would continue as leader.'"

John Gormley OTM

OK

Bruton has been paid a large amount of cash by FF backers to do this, right?

Nothing else makes any fucking sense.

xp-

Will FF?

Will FG?

No. My point was that if Labour want to be in Government they will have to go in with either FF or FG. If they don't want to be in Government then they don't need a coalition partner, though one would have to ask why they are bothering to contest elections.

If Labour actually does come first in seats and/or votes next time, it does change the dynamic a bit. Instead of Labour propping up some other party, the other party gets to prop up Labour. In that situation they might even get away with coalescing with the otherwise toxic FF.

Not sure I'd take Gormley's advice on political tactics tbh.

But still, I had no idea this was going to happen. At this point, I think the best outcome for FG is that Bruton takes over and manages to bring the party with him. What is most likely to happen is that the front bench supports Kenny out of loyalty, FG lose their most able spokesman and the papers go mad with the "what's the point of Fine Gael" trope they're so fond of.

If Labour actually does come first in seats and/or votes next time, it does change the dynamic a bit. Instead of Labour propping up some other party, the other party gets to prop up Labour.

Well, yes- that's the strategy they should be pursuing, is what I was getting at. Stated in my usual muddled manner, of course.

Bruton is great, their most able spokesman, all of that, but this is a move so pointless from him that it would really make me question his judgement on just about everything else.

Kenny has the party. He's not going to lose this vote, and it won't even be close- in fact, had a challenge come from someone less vital to the party's immediate future, it would have been a nice little reinforcer for Enda, a shit-or-get-off-the-pot moment. But coming from Bruton it will not only be more divisive, it'll of necessity come at the extra cost of their most dynamic front bench presence.

I still don't see how Bruton has weighed this up as being a move of any benefit to himself.

Pretty much agree there.

Irish Times has a rather pro-Bruton editorial: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0615/1224272513279.html

Yeah, that's the colours nailed to the mast there alright. Harry McGee's piece today is a good one from a more detached POV I think.

Leo Varadkar is an odious little shit, apropos of nothing.

does anyone have a sub for the irish times online?

― plax (ico), 31 May 2010 17:24 (2 weeks ago) Bookmark

I didn't see this, sry

I don't, but i've never been asked for one, tbh, if it's just articles you're looking for.

i dunno, no matter what ppl say, the go ahead and vote FF

― plax (ico), 14 June 2010 10:27 (Yesterday) Bookmark

and yeah there's no way FF won't poll half again of 17% in an election.

that is probably true - they got way more than their polling level in last-year's locals, for instance.

Quite a meeting of the FG front bench this morning, by all accounts.

Jesus, busy day.

Croke Park deal goes through. Fuckem.

Bloody Sunday, Cameron and all that.

FG Fiasco continues. Varadkar still a little shit- if that's the future of FG, may the whole lot of em just drop off the face of the earth, tbh.

And in the background, Cowen stays.

The margins involved in all three of the vote/numbers issues have kinda ruined my day.

Aw Enda, Enda what the fuck? You clown.

"Limerick TD Kieran O’Donnell, who Mr Kenny named as Mr Bruton’s replacement as finance spokesman, today declared support for the challenger. Mr O’Donnell said he told Mr Kenny of his intentions this morning. “I feel that Richard Bruton is the most viable option to lead the party.”"

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

If you wrote that in an RTE sitcom it'd be rejected as dumb satire of the lowest order, I mean really though.

Meanwhile the Cóir people are still warning FF that if they do not stop nourishing sodomy they will be in big trouble.

Well FG did a fair bit of fucking from behind the weekend past themselves.

On another note, Anglo Irish are trying to sneak in under the radar with the news that the 22bn sunk into them so far will not be recovered. Letting the fuckers hang, is, of course, simply not an option. Not sure why.

Meanwhile the Cóir people are still warning FF that if they do not stop nourishing sodomy they will be in big trouble.

― The New Dirty Vicar, Wednesday, June 16, 2010 2:57 PM (3 hours ago)

where can i sign up w/ these guys srsly

nourishing sodomy- great band name imo