2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

i'm looking forward to see the steam shoot of of mccain's ears during a live debate

http://www.collegecandy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/barack__obama.jpg
senator mccain who has been an american hero for over 100 years would like to turn this into a who loves america best pissing contest when all of us love america so very much - the real question is how to move america past exactly these sort of retarded substanceles partisan politics and into a new era. vote change! i am so sexy! thank you and goodnight bitches!

http://punchup.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/john_mccain.jpg
AAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGG!!!!!!

An interesting article analyzing the demographic breakdown of Obama's win over Clinton in Wisconsin:

How Obama Won Wisconsin

It shows that Obama has made up a lot of ground among the <$50,000 income demographic, union households, and white Catholics - though Clinton still narrowly beat him in that last category.

Okay, I'm sorry I have to post some selections from my myspace exchange (this is a dude I was in a band with my first year in high school, and I'm not exactly surprised, but I am disappointed):

I am not racist, I don't associate myself with racists. In fact their are some African American's, who if they ran I would be more than happy to vote for. Victor David Hanson, Thomas Sowell, and even Condi Rice and shes a woman to boot! In hindsight, I can see your point on the racist thing, their is that little part about his church which preaches black advancement... blah blah blah, their is some truth to that part, but that wasn't what I was trying to shed light on.

the main points I was trying to point out are his refusal to say the pledge of elegance. I, not being a religious person can understand not wanting to say the "one nation under god" part, how ever I understand what that actually means: "we are one unified nation under a banner of common beliefs and principals". In my opinion if the president of the united states is not willing to "pledge" his "allegiance" to all of our common principals and beliefs, then he has absolutely no right to lead us.

...

Now his wife come out and says that for the first time she is proud of her country. For the first time?? She wasn't proud of the work and sacrifice that civil rights leaders (Martin Luther King, to name one) did to grant minorities the rights they have today? Yes, I agree that their still are problems regarding civil right in the various ethic groups in this country. However, I do not believe that is is me the white man who is oppressing, and keeping them down. If that were the case, their would be no Oprah Winfrey, Obama wouldn't even be a contender in the election. Ethnicity has 0% effect on how successful you can become in this country. Maybe instead of pushing the blame around, pull you pants up to your waste, learn to talk like a civilized human being, respect what an education can actually give you in this country. If we are still in this grossly racist country how can a man who represents a group that only equals 13% of the over population be leading in the primary elections?

I don't know what he's talking about, Barack is an elegant man.

Here's another commentator, writing in the FT, who sees hope for the Republicans in his analysis of presidential election trends since 1968:

History’s hurdle for the Democrats

Like Ruy Teixeira, he identifies the key to the GOP's winning streak in the white, working-class voters who defected to the GOP starting around 1968, in the wake of the civil rights reforms.

His conclusion:

The Reagan coalition of libertarians, hawks and the religious right is indeed cracking up – but it is not clear that Republican ideological wars will help the Democrats. As long as the Republicans appeal more than Democrats to the white working-class populists whom George Wallace led out of the Democratic Party in 1968, then even in disarray they may be able to shut Democrats out of the White House for the eighth time out of 11 elections

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080219/capt.f1163b25546d42dfabf7efa2d596f3e9.clinton_2008_ohck103.jpg

In fact their are some African American's, who if they ran I would be more than happy to vote for. Victor David Hanson

http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2007/november28/gifs/ppl_hanson.jpg

Hmm.

Barack's op-ed on what kind of agreement on spending limits he would seek with McCain

Jordan, reading that excerpt was really sad. Presumably people presented w/yr pal's education and opportunities should maybe LEARN HOW TO FUCKIN' SPELL. Anyway, I'm sure he didn't grow up in a 1BR apartment jammed with a family of (ISTR) five like Michelle Obama did.

Pledge of allegiance history: it was 'One Nation, indivisible' before the McCarthy squad added the God bit to distinguish from Godless Commies. John McWayne should be old enough to remember the change, and if he cannot, check for dementia...

William Rees-Mogg said that Obamarama is going all the way to the White House on R4 this morning, and he's a very, very old fart here.

isn't a prediction from Mystic Mogg the kiss of death, though?

i agree at how sad that correspondence is

my obj to the Pledge was always the "justice for all" bullshit

more info. on the pro-clinton 527:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/American_Leadership_Project.html

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/hillary_supporters_create_new.php

Opposing view: Both sides must agree

I am fine with "justice for all" as long as it is secondary to "justice for me, Dan Perry".

http://www.patrickruffini.com/2008/02/13/the-marketing-of-the-president-2008/

"Watching Obamamania unfold over the last few days, I have gradually come to the realization that we are living through the first Presidential campaign that is being marketed like a high-end consumer brand."

If that were the case, their would be no Oprah Winfrey

I am fine with "justice for all" as long as it is secondary to "justice for me, Dan Perry"

Not too late to run on that very platform.

Ruffini doesn't get out much, does he.

The golden aureole which had blinded the right has dissolved, and now the attacks begin. The latest: Obama and Michelle Obama are "narcissists."

I'm going to buy popcorn in anticipation of the moment in a debate when the question is about the Patriot Act, or the limits of Presidential power, or Supreme Court nominees, and Obama gets to explain to his no doubt worthy opponent how the Constitution actually works.

But Obama can't sound like a SMARTY PANTS, it alienates the masses!

golden areola? whose nipple you talkin about, alfred?

xpost He has some leeway this year. As long as he doesn't sigh heavily, I think he'll come off ok.

i never noticed obama's logo before. it is pretty good.

by the by, i phonebanked 2 hours for obama yesterday evening. it's the first time i've volunteered for a campaign. huzzah.

what was it like?

called numbers off a list compiled from unaffiliated and democratic voter registrations rolls. plenty of wrong and disconnected numbers, left lots of messages about the rally in RI with michelle obama today. when i did speak with someone, asked if they were voting on march 4 and who they supported and let them know about the rally. basically, it was winnowing down the list to identify supporters for GOTV and volunteering and identifying undecided voters for future targeting.

the location was in a real estate office, and there were maybe 10 people there. and free pizza.

So no Che flags on the premises right?

glen greenwald gettin psyched for the general election http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/02/20/obama/index.html

That blog entry is interesting. I'm thinking, first off, this is all they got? "He's just a brand!" It made me think of Colbert saying to O'Reilly, "If you're just an act, then what am I?"

And of course secondly, it's not a bad point. Except I happen to like that Obama is being marketed smoothly and attractively. It's another issue on which he gives me hope for the future. "Oooh! I like Gill Sans!"

Couldn't do any worse.

I have gradually come to the realization that we are living through the first Presidential campaign that is being marketed like a high-end consumer brand.

Whoo my God is this ever bullshit.

elmo, do you actually think you made any difference? i know it's not quite the same but i volunteered on Super Tuesday for the phonebank at Hillary's HQ in Arlington.

Estimated that I spoke to approx 500 people over the course of the day and affected, maybe, 4 people's voting intentions. Waste of fuckin' time and money in my opinion.

(I'm not a big Hillary fan btw, not even Merican, just thought it would be an interesting experience)

upt0, i can't say whether or not i made a difference -- but i did get some satisfaction out of just having participated. phonebanking is pretty low-level volunteer work -- and it's probably not as effective at changing minds as, say, canvassing -- but i'd like to think it makes the campaign coordinators' and operatives' efforts easier and more effective.

it occurs to me that had clinton just won 10 primaries in a row with the margins Obama did, he would be completely written off right now. the only thing keeping clinton alive is the name and legacy; but this campaign is finished.

x-post

perhaps. i enjoyed it and i was there from prety much 9am til 11pm. I liked having conversations with the few people willing to talk and explaining to them why I thought Hillary was worth voting for - pretty much ignored the script - but in terms of getting people out to vote who had already decided they weren't going to...

I just thought that considering the operation cost about a million dollars for that day alone (so i was informed by someone important) the money could have been far better spent elsewhere. no wonder the campaign revealed two days later how financially exhausted it was. this idea that Hillary has the efficient, experienced militarily precise campaign machine struck me as being a bit devoid of merit.

...had clinton just won 10 primaries in a row with the margins Obama did, he would be completely written off right now.

-- akm

Dunno about Clinton being finished, but the rest = OTM.

Can McCain effectively attack Obama on public financing when McCain used his certification for public financing as collateral on a loan to his campaign? I understand the intention of the attack, but I wonder if it will backfire if they push too hard.

clinton been ded - look for the media to start catching on leading to obama wins in ohio n texas - followed by clinton surrender

didn't Obama and McCain sponsor some climate change legislation? I can't see McCain getting very nasty – he'll let the right wing propaganda arm do his dirty work – but I do see a lot of stern finger-wagging.

how does campaign financing work after the primaries? are donations reset once the nominee is picked, ie: if a person/group maxed out their donation to obama, can they re-donate to him once he gets the nomination? I'm just wondering since ti seems like so much of obama's donations have come from individuals.... if the charge was to point the finger about him taking loads of special interest money, I don't know that this will be the case

as obama and mccain turn towards each other and preview a general election fight, the clinton campaign is going to be largely forsaken by the press. her attacks against obama are going to be seen as supplementing mccain's attacks. obama will increasingly turn towards his presumed opponent, and mccain has all but written clinton off. but she'll get attention in the press when she goes negative. it doesn't look good for her.

Clinton's only hope is to go negative.

It might not "look good," but it's still her best shot. Her campaign probably hopes it can inspire a last minute panic about Obama.

akm, the individual limit is $2,300 for the primary and $2,300 for the general election. if a campaign has accepted general election funds during the primary but loses the nomination, the g.e. funds have to be returned.

Clinton went pretty negative up here and it didn't work -- in fact, polling data suggests that it backfired big-time.

the problem with clinton going negative is she can only hope to erode the positive associations people have with obama, but she risks increasing her negatives at the same time. if her only press coverage of negative attacks, she'll be quicly and popularly perceived as the negative, status-quo politician, and that's how she'll lose.

it is incredibly unlikely, in any case, that obama will lose the primary for a lack of financial support

i like that clinton's latest attacks are "Obama uses WORDS to dazzle you all"

<i>didn't Obama and McCain sponsor some climate change legislation? I can't see McCain getting very nasty – he'll let the right wing propaganda arm do his dirty work – but I do see a lot of stern finger-wagging.</i>

I dunno, I thought he was particularly aggressive in his speech last night.