this is where we talk about nate silver's 'most livable neighborhood in nyc' ranking

wow I used 'really' 4 times in that sentence

also this is splitting hairs cause they're #1 and #2 and basically the same neighborhood....but there's no way sunnyside is more 'diverse' than woodside

this is the most relevant fact imo
When I moved to New York from Chicago last April

haha idk I've been here even less time than that

(and most native new yorkers that I talk to seem sorta proud of the fact that they never leave their immediate surroundings)

not that I'm claiming to be an expert on anything...more that I don't think that your average person who's been here 10 years really would have done a better job

I've lived in Crown Heights but voted for Washington Heights cause that's where I live now and repping for my hood!

yo where's the creative capital at?

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

People sometimes say that Prospect Heights has OK nightlife. I live here, and like it for other reasons, but it doesn't. What do you have in mind? Soda Bar? The Vanderbilt? Washington Commons? er...

sure! i mean what do you mean by "OK nightlife"? all im looking for is a handful of bars with crowds that dont make me feel like committing suicide

when i lived in prospect heights, i liked washington commons. do not like franklin park usually. sepia is alright, was down the block from me. don't really like soda, or plan b. sharlene's has a trivia night we've been to a few times.

also, brooklyn museum's first saturdays are fun. (believe it or not.)

yeah im not a soda fan. franklin park is OK! and now has a good burger place attached. wash commons is good, i like woodwork so far. havent been to vanderbilt.

starlite lounge is fun but i guess thats crown heights

i mean i would 10000000% rather go out in p'spect heights than williamsburg or really anywhere in manhattan

I was forced to take G shuttle bus today; Greenpoint looks livable, but can I afford it? I'd love to pay less rent but I hate hate hate moving.

Also, Sunday Times pimping LIC in real-estate sec today.

also let's drink in P' Heights real soon huh?

trains were awful this weekend. we should do a p-heights fap some weekend soon tho.

i also was fucked by a shuttle bus today! noticed the G was fucked, took the L to the F without checking first & the F was also not running past jay street. took a shuttle bus and was half an hour late to meet a girl for scrabble. d'oh.

Dozens of trains fucked every weekend.

Bunch of bus stops in my nabe have notices of end-of-June service cuts - no overnight B67!

"meet a girl for scrabble"

easily decoded

avoided the g this weekend, but I love how the service advisories still often refer to forest hills - despite the fact that service past court square is officially 100% cut.

so is nate silver gay or what

― jordan s (J0rdan S.), Friday, October 31, 2008 2:10 PM (2 years ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

http://out.com/Out100/slideshow.asp?slideshow_title=Out100&theID=270#Top

i'm going to delete my ilx login while playing a youtube of the smashmouth concert at the end of 'rat race'

there are no remaining questions left to be answered

wow!

for some reason I would have never guessed this

Oh Natepaws.

at first it seems kinda douchey otoh I don't really see the harm in nate silver making a buck however the hell he wants to, it's not like he's joining goldman sachs

hey he's the mind behind the 7th or 8th most accurate baseball statistical forecasting model.

still a better deal than the fuckin freakeconomics dude

wonder what the most livable hood is when you make $1k/hr?

http://skreened.com/render-product/k/q/m/kqmtifiksakkytlonaus/drunk-nate-silver.american-apparel-unisex-fitted-tee.white.w760h760.jpg

His book is really boringly written sadly. Not sure how much of this I'll be able to get through.

a statistician? boring? no way!

haha I find the fivethirtyeight and his baseball writing pretty good actually. This is just dragging. And anyway this book is about as much real statistics as Malcolm Gladwell's are social psychology or sociology or whatever.

yes, his baseball stuff was always engaging and readable.

fortunately I don't give a damn about everything he's done since, so never considered picking up this book.

alex have you read black swan? has its own problems writing style-wise (massive ego, abuse of footnotes) but boring not one of them

http://blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/2013/07/22/nate-silver-and-a-general-theory-of-media-exodus

Silver's doing a live Q&A on Deadspin right now. Love this one...

So you didn't quite fit into the culture at the New York Times. How excited are you to work alongside Colin Cowherd and Rick Reilly?

site is live - http://fivethirtyeight.com/

... why can't they just have one unified RSS feed

The place really looks great compared to how bad grantland looked at launch

The books in my office — I have about 500 — are arranged by color. It’s quite aesthetically pleasing. It’s not all that convenient, however, when I have to track down a book. I have to remember its color, or I have to scan through every row and column of the shelf. The color-coding system is perhaps a little better as an organizational method than shelving the books at random, but not a lot better. Still, with 500 books, it’s a manageable problem. In the worst case, I might spend a few minutes looking for a book. I’m willing to make that trade in exchange for having a prettier bookshelf.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/natebookcase.jpeg?w=610

why would you do this

It does look kinda cool tbh

I hope at the very least it's alphabetized within color, jesus christ

If you're doing this for visual effect (and why else would you do it) what possible sense can there be in wrapping around from the end of one shelf to the beginning of the next shelf? See the yellow books in the picture. They are not even visually contiguous.

I used to arrange my CDs (jewel boxes) like this. It made it surprisingly easy to find them.

http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2014/03/blogs/democracy-america/20140322_usp505.jpghttp://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2014/03/blogs/democracy-america/20140322_usp505.jpghttp://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2014/03/blogs/democracy-america/20140322_usp505.jpg

some friends had a local news meteorology guy in their circle and we ran into him at some local outdoor fest and he dished on all the local gossip, the former coworker who got ousted during weird covid office shit, but the one thing he’d never claim to be was a weather forecaster. it’s just meteorology. they deliver forecasts, with some degree of certainty. it’s like a guy saying, whoa, a banker is not a debt holder. they just deal with loans and investment instruments. I just facilitate that stuff

pretty much everywhere...it's gonna be hot

Several years back I toured the NWS' Oxnard office which handles forecasting for the Los Angeles sprawl. It's medium-high level nerd stuff, but the tour is recommended if you think you might like it. I asked them what's the weirdest phone call they ever received (always ask this question!) and without hesitatiion they said it was the vampires -- straight-up "I am a vampire and I need to know about the sun's luminosity and local cloudcover over the next week" questions. It was noted that the NWS is happy to provide information to all folks both alive and undead and that the vampires were always poilte and very thankful for the forecasts

pretty much everywhere...it's gonna be hot

― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, September 11, 2024 4:27 AM (eleven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

then I don't need a jacket

just for the record:

https://i.imgur.com/Kh2EHIy.png

so much smarter than everyone else that he came out the other side

lol

remember when he looked down his nose at pundits who let their "conventional wisdom" distract them from provable data?

Back in the day, his writings were mostly just wonkish stat nerd detail about why his model did X or Y, and the tradeoffs versus having it do B or C, and that was sort of nice nerdy comfort-food reading. He's always been atrocious whenever he would let himself play pundit on political strategy, or opine in any way on the material and social worlds that shape or are affected by politics. Unfortunately he's now put those things front and center, and he still stinks at all of it, classic blinkered Beltway-media centrist nonsense.

You couldn't even really see the "Stature Gap" on the broadcast I watched. She actually looked weirdly taller than him because he kept hunching.

(open for context)

I believe the saying is "like a turd in a punch bowl, it not only disinclines you to drink any more but raises very disconcerting questions about what has already been consumed"

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) September 12, 2024

No about-face on my mea culpa above or anything, but I'm still checking his projection, wanting her to do well; I think I now internally make my own adjustment to whatever Silver has. Harris has pulled back to almost even--47.6%--so that's good news.

turd in the punch bowl, indeed

"Polls and models become a vehicle for what psychologists call transference: basically, people displace all their anxieties about the election onto the forecasts and the people who design them."

Would definitely agree with that.

One case where the world's most annoying media critics Actually Have A Good Point for Once is that the handling of Trump hacked documents is extremely inconsistent with the handling of the Clinton hacked documents in 2016.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 23, 2024

He had a good post today on outliers.

Or if you don’t like the Silver Bulletin or 538 or RealClearPolitics averages, I’ll offer another alternative. Make your own average. Seriously, it’s not that hard. But I do have one stipulation: you have to publicly specify the rules ahead of time. I think you’ll find that when you’re forced to be consistent, to set standards that aren’t governed by your ad hoc sense of the vibes or by your partisan preferences, you’ll have a lot more sympathy for the polling aggregators — and you won’t be as surprised when one of the outliers turns out to be right.

damn the best take on outliers since malcolm gladwell

out lying in his field

https://i.imgur.com/xgyMAmG.jpeg

Straightforward question for anyone who still pays attention to Silver (but really don't want to get into yet another discussion of Silver himself):

Today, he has the "Electoral Collage Probability" at 50.2% for Trump and 49.5% for Harris; for "Predicted Electoral Votes," he has Harris at 273.6 and Trump at 264.4.

I get the idea of probability to win the EC, and how that doesn't translate into equivalent EC votes. But there's a disconnect between those two I'm not getting--how can you be slightly favoured in one but not the other?

guessing it's because Harris's most likely paths have her winning more electoral votes on average

That makes sense, although I would have thought the reverse--that Harris wins more often, but mostly by 270-268 and comes out lower on average EC votes.

(I.e., wins slightly more simulations.)

its very tricky to calculate since each state isn't really its own independent event, even if say WI and MI are tossups, they still both go the same way in basically every election, so it's more here than just aggregating probabilities...I think. Nate's models tend to take this sort of thing into account. that said I still don't buy these models are accurate, once again I must point out that Silver's model had Trump at 42% or so to win the popular vote outright a few weeks ago, which I think is nearly impossible - also he throws all those garbage R-leaning polls into the mix, which is how he whiffed so hard on 2022

loooooooooooool he is shook

https://i.postimg.cc/XvcrfZn3/72515267-b85b-41c8-a06f-12797fbe0096.jpg

I mean

https://i.postimg.cc/XvcrfZn3/72515267-b85b-41c8-a06f-12797fbe0096.jpg

repping for the three For the Boys fans out there

wicked burn reminding someone they got nominated for an oscar

The model works based on calls made by five major news organizations: ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, Fox News, and the New York Times.

Re their coverage tonight. Fox but not CNN? Can see both, neither, or just CNN, but not that--silly.

huh

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:tb2bwzxom5qv4542ru3zqcgu/bafkreih2m6gt4iywiskcjws6l5b46qh3fo3istjbt3zu2fpun2xbmefnkm@jpeg

This chump

ONE MORE TIME

https://i.imgur.com/mKKTIFT.jpeg

I wonder who the other four were?