Ken vs. Boris: It's So On

After 4 out of 14 constituencies have been counted and verified (are you having a frikking laugh, please? FOUR?!) the votes are as follows:

Boris Johnson: 316, 414 votes
Ken Livingstone: 277, 808 votes.

these blogger types must be gluttons for punishment watching the rolling news all night

So that's a 39,000-vote lead for Boris from four GLA districts, three of which Ken presumably won (City & East, Brent & Harrow, North East). So that leaves 10 to go, and Boris supposedly leads in 7 of them. Oh dear.

Time to redraw the boundaries. Bromley, as any fule no, is Kent.

Boris Johnson: 378,239 votes
Ken Livingstone: 343,770 votes.

34 469 ahead

Closing in, how late will this thing run?

If they were the only two candidates in it then it would be BJ 52.3% KL 47.6%, so still fairly close, maybe, just maybe, still some hope of 2nd choices rescuing Ken?

So what mayor votes in what areas counted?

someone's been at johnson's wiki page

a lot

but no one seems to have spotted the obvious edit in the first line of his bio

Yeah, where are you chaps getting these running totals? Londonelects and BBC hopeless, ITV good on Assembly, but no mayoral totals.

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/05/waiting_for_the_mayoral_electi.html

Oh, right. And where are they getting them from?! Numbers just seem to emerge from the ether, never from the official sources.

Oh, right. And where are they getting them from?! Numbers just seem to emerge from the ether, never from the official sources.

They're from http://www.londonelects.org.uk

And on the Stop Boris blog:

On BBC London 94.9, Peter Kellner, head honcho of YouGov, has also called the election for Boris, and will resign if he’s wrong.

I've been looking at London Elects all evening and it's hours behind everyone else; the only mayoral result they have is City & East (Ken by 95k to 50k).

LOL BORIS!!!: 520,905
Ken: 454,518
Paddick: 105,187

LEGERND

7 of 14 constituencies declared.
FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES:
Boris Johnson: 46%
Ken Livingstone: 40%
Brian Paddick: 9%

Which constituencies?

the BNP guy got 5% of the city and east vote

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

West Central is the latest declared, I think.

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

Not until November.

Boris Johnson: 46%
Ken Livingstone: 40%
Brian Paddick: 9%

Yeah, that's bad. There aren't gonna be enough 2nd-pref votes if Paddick's only polling in single-figures.

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

-- gabbneb, Friday, 2 May 2008 22:25 (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

If you haven't been doing that non-stop since the mid 60s, there's something wrong with you.

This should update itself:

http://extras.thelondonpaper.com/elections/images/map.jpg

Who's fault is this going to be then? Paddick for being Nader-y, or fools like me who've gone for the 'there's no way Boris will get 50%, I'll give my first vote to the Greens or German or someone'?

I do believe Enfield and Haringey have held Labour.

^^^guardian agrees

Yeah but Boris isn't going to get 50%.

Is it wrong of me to wish Livingstone had some kind of illegal skulduggery up his sleeve? Greater good, you know. Sometimes you have to break a few eggs.

How do we think the 2nd-choice votes will split? I'm guessing most Green/Respect will be for Ken, and most UKIP/BNP for Boris, and this will more or less cancel out, but what about the Lib Dem votes? For Ken to have any chance he needs to get at least two-thirds of the Lib Dem second choices.

Jona, don't worry, it's entirely the LOL BORIS contingent who we're gonna be beating up on.

NBS, I'm pretty sure I heard (from rubbish sources, admittedly) that the old 'scratch a Lib Dem, find a Tory' thing was true in this case. We have no chance.

Is that really true though? Lib Dems have taken on an awful lot of traditionally left positions in the past 3-4 years.

*cries again*

Lots of people have libdemmed due to war stance who would otherwise go labour.

Tracer, not sure, as I say, it was from a completely non-authoritative source, but Lib Dems tend to be good for civil liberties, not so good for trade union type stuff. My brain no longer works, apologies for crap sentence structure. I'm not even from Lahndan, what am I doing here? *sobs*

If you want to see what a total prick looks like, watch 'blogger' Iain Dale on Sky News reviewing the newspapers.

http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/2/143049/9514

The whole "LOL, BORIS, LEGERND" voters thing is minor. You forget how many reactionary, tax-dodging, poor ppl hatin', 4x4 driving pillocks live in the capital. They just needed a figurehead.

I feel guilty now, i.e. what the pinefox was saying, that I haven't at the very least been stickering everything in sight with "TYPICAL RACIST - FUCK OFF BORIS - TORY TWAT"

Ken is gaining:

Racist bigot: 628,898
People's hero: 601,373
Nader: 141,338

Green have an unofficial pact with Labour - Sian Berry's been urging people to give their 2nd vote to Ken and vice versa. Polls suggest Lib Dems are giving their 2nd choice to Boris by a 4:3 margin. Scum.

FUCK

this map seems encouraging so far at least but no doubt it hides a nightmare somewhere:

http://extras.thelondonpaper.com/elections/images/map.jpg

But those folk would vote Tory anyway. I suppose that the Boris publicity machine drew them out when they might have otherwise not voted, but I can bet that there was a large youth vote that previously would, if voting at all, not have gone so right-wing.

xposts to Bodrick

Nine out of fourteen constituencies declared, according to Sky
FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES:
Boris: 628,896 42%
Ken: 601, 737 40%
Brian P: 141, 338 9%

when will people get it, the liberals are, well, Liberals, and therefore right of centre.

If what Michael Jones says about Lib Dem second prefs holds true, this could be down to literally only dozens of second preference votes.