Ken vs. Boris: It's So On

ES says second preferences will not come into it. I would love for ES, sky and the telegraph to be wrong

every time i move to a city they put in some fucking right wing asshole as mayor

I guess if you've counted 70% of the votes, or whatever, then you can predict the result with extremely high levels of certainty UNLESS you're not actually counting them in a random way - i.e. they just haven't got to Brent or Brixton or Hackney yet.

I assume all this "Boris ahead in 8/9/10 of 14 GLA districts" nonsense - not that it really tells us anything - is because one of the three ballot papers is region-specific, hence that's how they're being tallied at the three counting centres. I don't know whether it's a visual check (stack of paper on blue table) or whether people are leaking tabulated data (which surely isn't allowed).

We don't know which districts Boris is ahead in (though we can guess), whether they're the most populous/have the greatest turnout or by what margin he supposedly leads/trails.

I would love it, LOVE IT, if Boris edged it by 30,000 votes and then saw the Green-Lab pact sweep away his lead on the 2nd-prefs.

ES says second preferences will not come into it.

This has to be BS. Boris by 15-20pts?

some serious over-estimating of the "lol legernd" vote on this thread. if it was that simple labour wouldn't already be toast in the next general election.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/25/The_Smashing_Pumpkins_1979_Mixes.jpg

ES says second preferences will not come into it.
This has to be BS. Boris by 15-20pts?

Either someone at the Evening Standard is innumerate or there's been a completely unpredicted landslide.

the es has been wrong about so many things, it would be nice if this were one of them

*cries*

i think dg's right about the congestion charge, people's relationship to their cars is very personal and very emotional, second only to their relationship to their money

Brian Paddick's second preference vote was for Lindsay German.

Isn't he a Dickens.

and for those reasons if livingstone is booted out, the congestion charge will go down as one of the bravest policies ever pushed through by a mayor anywhere

to do something like the congestion charge, or to increase the time the green man stays lit at crosswalks, or to insist on 50% affordable housing as a target for new residential development etc etc, requires enormous fortitude that can only come from belief in one's principles. because it takes exhausting negotiating sessions over months and months to pass these things. (this is not to even speak of the whole network of local community organisations who work with the city on hundreds of different initiatives, depending on the mayor's priorities). i don't see boris being able to sustain the interest beyond cocktail #2.

xpost it's "lindsey"

After a nailbiting count, Mr Johnson was so far ahead on first-preference votes he could not be caught by Mr Livingstone, even after second preferences were taken into account

Ah, OK. They're not saying it won't go to the 2nd round just that it'll be a formality. Which is still dubious, as there'll be 350-400k Paddick/Berry votes to go through.

i can attest that the lovely emma b cast a vote for siân berry and a second preference for ken, so that's one!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/london08.livingstone

First London Assembly result:
Bexley & Bromley - Con 52% Lab 15% LD 11%

Now, if they're the sort of margins BJ is winning the outer 'burbs by, it really is all over.

from the rolling guardian blog:

Havering & Redbridge has been added to Boris's victory list.

Where's Havering?

no surprise on either count

labour gain brent and harrow from the tories

The Labour vote in Bexley & Bromley is virtually unchanged, there was just a 12% from UKIP to the Tories.

Brent & Harrow: LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVES!

City & East: Labour hold with increased share (collapse of Respect vote?)

Labour hold my constituency ('North-East') as well.

Looking at the details it seems that the minority parties' votes are being squeezed and both Labour and Conservatives have risen.

the city and east constituency is just one long strip of labour seats so no surprise there

After 4 out of 14 constituencies have been counted and verified (are you having a frikking laugh, please? FOUR?!) the votes are as follows:

Boris Johnson: 316, 414 votes
Ken Livingstone: 277, 808 votes.

these blogger types must be gluttons for punishment watching the rolling news all night

So that's a 39,000-vote lead for Boris from four GLA districts, three of which Ken presumably won (City & East, Brent & Harrow, North East). So that leaves 10 to go, and Boris supposedly leads in 7 of them. Oh dear.

Time to redraw the boundaries. Bromley, as any fule no, is Kent.

Boris Johnson: 378,239 votes
Ken Livingstone: 343,770 votes.

34 469 ahead

Closing in, how late will this thing run?

If they were the only two candidates in it then it would be BJ 52.3% KL 47.6%, so still fairly close, maybe, just maybe, still some hope of 2nd choices rescuing Ken?

So what mayor votes in what areas counted?

someone's been at johnson's wiki page

a lot

but no one seems to have spotted the obvious edit in the first line of his bio

Yeah, where are you chaps getting these running totals? Londonelects and BBC hopeless, ITV good on Assembly, but no mayoral totals.

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/05/waiting_for_the_mayoral_electi.html

Oh, right. And where are they getting them from?! Numbers just seem to emerge from the ether, never from the official sources.

Oh, right. And where are they getting them from?! Numbers just seem to emerge from the ether, never from the official sources.

They're from http://www.londonelects.org.uk

And on the Stop Boris blog:

On BBC London 94.9, Peter Kellner, head honcho of YouGov, has also called the election for Boris, and will resign if he’s wrong.

I've been looking at London Elects all evening and it's hours behind everyone else; the only mayoral result they have is City & East (Ken by 95k to 50k).

LOL BORIS!!!: 520,905
Ken: 454,518
Paddick: 105,187

LEGERND

7 of 14 constituencies declared.
FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES:
Boris Johnson: 46%
Ken Livingstone: 40%
Brian Paddick: 9%

Which constituencies?

the BNP guy got 5% of the city and east vote

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

West Central is the latest declared, I think.

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

Not until November.

Boris Johnson: 46%
Ken Livingstone: 40%
Brian Paddick: 9%

Yeah, that's bad. There aren't gonna be enough 2nd-pref votes if Paddick's only polling in single-figures.

do we get to make fun of you based on your leaders yet?

-- gabbneb, Friday, 2 May 2008 22:25 (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

If you haven't been doing that non-stop since the mid 60s, there's something wrong with you.

This should update itself:

http://extras.thelondonpaper.com/elections/images/map.jpg

Who's fault is this going to be then? Paddick for being Nader-y, or fools like me who've gone for the 'there's no way Boris will get 50%, I'll give my first vote to the Greens or German or someone'?

I do believe Enfield and Haringey have held Labour.

^^^guardian agrees