Irish politics discussion thread

Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.

for a while, the PDs did better in elections when they were in government (with FF) than when they were in opposition. Maybe they had more to show for their supporters. Or something.

However, the PDs also had a tendency to do very badly in elections every so often, so it maybe was only a matter of time before they did so badly they got wiped out. It might be reading too much into it to say they were wiped out because they were in coalition with FF - they were just bound to get a very bad result sooner or later.

PD's political ideology is always going to be cyclically popular or otherwise to a much larger extent than FF, FG. Same with Lab, to be fair, but probably not to the saem extent.

Govt with FF (particularly Justice/Health ministerial posts, how can you win votes on those issues?) was just the killer blow, maybe.

NAMA seems to have been completely ignored on this thread. anybody else think its a terrible idea? there are plenty of alternatives to this crap shoot.

I'm not normally (hell maybe I am) one to just go along with barroom solicitors' opinion, but NAMA really is just a bailout for developers and banks, to the detriment of everybody else. I've not seen the proposals for dealing with the empty properties across the country, but if the social housing lists aren't decimated then NAMA will have been a complete whitewash.

cullen admitted to hospital now. jeez i'd say minister's health/life/income protection insurance is going through the roof.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hFNcC7dde6DREm6fdWhjfr3cqCDwD9EGNS980

Now there's a surprise, whodathoughit?

Never mind that

so, have i got this right-

monday morning- director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

tuesday- anglo irish admit that pay rises are going ahead in a bank that's effectively in receivership to the government

wednesday- another director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

i mean.

tbh i only think this is all funny now

tbh it's funny now.

tbh it's not going to be when the crash comes, and we get to look back on this last decade like americans in the 1930-40's looked on wall street in the 1920's

the crash comes?

when the crash comes.

do people in ireland expect it to get drastically worse than it already is?

tbh relatively ireland aint that bad, yet, its not the 80s or even the early 90s but i mean

i think it'll get iceland in september or so.

jesus

there's still a huge amount of property overvaluation propping up the banks. foreclosures haven't started with gusto yet, but they will before long. the govt were criticised about predicting a 'soft landing' for the housing market instead of a crash in early 2008. that criticism was wrong- we're in the middle of our soft landing.

there's huge amounts of empty houses- if the govt cut a deal to get these finished (create some employment for the 270k+ out of work atm, most of whom are relatively unskilled construction) and transferred to social housing as part of the NAMA deal (clear housing lists, get the blow to property value over quickly, get us off the property-as-an-'investment' fix that killed us) then we might make it.

can't see a FF led builder/banker/homeowner govt going for this, so we'll see ye at the IMF

(ps i am somewhat of a pessimist)

i read the irish times last week and it was a horror story enough what with the opaque banking system and the paedopriests

even at the time the bubble seemed deranged, at least in london there is a natural scarcity of land and influx of people that puts a highish limit on any price collapse but the value of a huge mcmansion in the irish countryside is pretty arbitrary in some senses

arbitrary?

4/5 bed mcmansions currently offered for rent at about €100 a week, and they're struggling to find biters at that. mortage on a property like that is likely to be anything from 750 pm upwards.

that's kinda insane

compared to the sort of figures i'd be familiar with the price per sq ft is negligible, so without the land having much residual value it's sort of difficult to tell what else does? i dunno, you'll notice i'm somewhat unschooled in this area

land is rural in large part, rezoned through corrupt local planning decisions. it has absolutely nil residual value in most cases, and the houses are pretty much useless without the owner taking occupation.

i'm not sure about the likes of high density apts, city & town estates in the larger metropolitan areas, but given that there was more money in that side of things i'm fairly happy to assume that even where the values are holding in terms of investor groups picking up some of the slack, the oversupply biult up during the past decade is of at least the same magnitude.

estimates on empty housing units go as far as 300,000 iirc. govt disputes this of course. driving from the west coast to dublin, i'd not be surprised- anywhere west of the shannon new estate occupancy seems to be at about 20% for any development built in the past 3-4 years.

The Construction Industry Federation has said there is a need for accurate, reliable data on housing stock levels.

It was responding to research by UCD which found that there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

The CIF acknowledges that the figure is high but said different studies have come back with a variety of figures.

Its own figures suggest that 35,000-40,000 new homes remain unsold.

It says in Dublin the problem of unsold housing will resolve itself in around nine months, and with no development in the pipeline waiting-lists for housing will result in high growth areas.

The CIF admitted there is a problem in many counties around the country but said the market will ultimately sort that out.

the CIF are economists with the country's best interests at heart. they have rather magnificently been trying to float the idea of knocking all the empty houses as a keynesian macguffin exercise, because, hey, if oversupply's the problem then we've all got sledgehammers, right? expect sledgehammer rental prices, sledgehanmmer wielder wages to rise 40% this year. and on we go.

there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

and there are about 4 million people? that's just.....

i dunno

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house, assumign that all of the units will be accepted into NAMA (they won't be, but then there will be plenty of occupied units taken in under the 'We'll cover your stupidity' initiative.

so what will you do with the airing cupboard of a bungalow in offaly?

well pre 2008 the obvious answer was rent it to a polish family.

i work in a housing scheme where the local authorities are renting properties to meet the needs of those on the housing list in the medium term. i can see most of those properties coming on to something like that- using excess capacity to actually solve a major problem.

everyone on a waiting list outside of the major metro areas (of which we have maybe 3) will have their housing need met or negated in the next three years, if we play it smart.

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house,

lol. that's 1/12 of a house. so i've upgraded from hotpress to downstairs loo.

thought you must have been using the through the looking glass nu-maths popular in accountancy in the mid 00s

how much of that was developers assuming the population would be swollen by more immigrants? or did they assume everyone would go and buy a 3000sq ft house in the middle of nowhere

Developers only need to get a sale, they don't need a view on immigration, etc. Suspect cavalier investors were the target market there.

they wouldn't factor into individual developments but surely larger developers would have queried the levels of surplus being created

it was banks lending to individuals for the mcmansions, tbh.

then there's a layer of builders that would have always worked in the trade on a one-job-at-a-time basis that got in above their heads. they'd have gotten away with a lot of it as they'd have worked fairly organically- disposing of properties to fund the purchase of other sites, etc. they've mostly folded/are in the process of folding and the banks now own/soon will own whatever unfinished/unsold properties remaind on their portfolios (there are lots of these guys). they just reacted to a big surge in activity/demand for their services, not pre-meditated at all.

then there are superdevelopers, in hoc to banks for hundreds of millions. most of their activites were predatory, cynical and premeditated only in the sense of skimming huge supernormal profit out of the boom. they'll walk away rich for the most part, protected by a labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

NAMA is taking on the bank's toxic balance sheet assets (at a PREMIUM to current market value, btw- think about that at a time when values are plummeting and 350k properties are empty- we are assured that developers will be pursued to the fullest extent by the govt after this occurs. i have grave doubts.

sorry am a it tl:dr on this subject, but if you thought something was happening before your eyes that would lead to you emigrating in protest, you might be a little O_o yrself.

no, it's miserable but sadly compelling reading

labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.

this isn't going to change is it?

at a PREMIUM to current market value

i believe the term was 'Future Value'.

they're not paying me at 'future value'. why not assume i'll get better at a rate of 8% per annum all of a sudden?

xp all depends on the apathetic part. there will be public sector strike action, i'm only hoping that it's as part of a total shutdown of the country. more than likely, it will be played beautifully as the elite protected workers rubbing it into the faces of the unemployed/private sector.

they're corrupt, venal, self serving and shallow cunts, FF, but they're not fucking stupid

was just pointing out the absurdity of it all with that phrase, darragh. dont see anyone in irish politics willing to switch the game up and the older generation (people who vote) still seem to cling to some hope that shure it'll have to get better soon.

yeah i know.

nobody in irish politics exists that has credibility to lead the assault on the banking and property sectors necessary. it will take something huge from outside the establishment to change that.

joe higgins and pat rabbitte need to procreate, basically. we can shelter the progeny through the dark years as a light in the darkness

CSO Figures show drop of 11.3% from 2008 in GNP

First calls from a backbencher for Cowen to resign. Not news until FF TD's are actually calling for an election, tbh, and not good news until they're decimated in that election.

John Gormley, Green Party Minister and my boss, has asked people to turn off all of their electrical items for an hour at 8.30pm tomorrow.

He's giving a televised speech about it for Earth Hour. Televised. At 8.30pm tomorrow.

NAMA day tomorrow guy. ready for the banks and developers to get the savage valuation of their assets expected?

what, no?

I know I'm talking in an empty room here for the most part, but if the unions buy this deal, on the details I've heard so far, I will fry my hat in a little butter, shallot and nutmeg and consume it with a wilted spinach side.

But they worked through the night to get this deal! Funny letter in the Irish Times today suggesting talks shd start in the morning instead of after lunch...

Unions- We don't want any more pay cuts.

Govt- Ok. We can't guarantee that though. We need you to agree to everything we ask- unconditionally, though.

Unions- Sound.

I don't even disagree with the reforms, tbh, but in terms of what the unions said they were seeking they've come out with fuck all.

I expect the details to maybe be a little sharper than what's posted above. But then again maybe not.