Irish politics discussion thread

yeah, although FF do seem to be playing the game of breaking up their own government. Well done FF.

the game is played on different levels- the first level is cut a fucker's throat when he crosses you. Govt stability is level 2 or further (after personal gain). Running the country in a proper manner is level 72.

yeah, although FF do seem to be playing the game of breaking up their own government. Well done FF.

They might be breaking up this government, but maybe they're doing it on purpose. They've run the PDs into the ground, they're running the Greens into the ground, and it's unlikely that FG and Labour could form a government on their own without other small parties. So maybe they're just playing a medium-term game, ensuring that the next election sees them form a government on their own. Maybe.

another thought- it's not like there's a level of msiconduct that's unbecoming a Minister of State yet is fine for an elected TD.

Where is the pressure on these pricks to quit their posts, not just their perks?

Also I think trishyb could be OTM- FF are fucked, they know they're fucked, and in the circumstances damage to the Greens could be motivated by more than mere spite. Still think it was a reaction to O'Dea first and foremost, and if Lab/FG play their cards half right they'll crush the next election.

I reckon next time round FG and Labour will easily form a government on their own. FF are pissing on their chips in the long run, as they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over. As they will never be able to win a majority alone, they are perhaps looking at a long spell on the opposition benches.

Where is the pressure on these pricks to quit their posts, not just their perks?

at the next election the electorate get to decide whether these guys have committed an offence that makes them unworthy of sitting in parliament.

you have remarkable faith in 'the long run' being a feature in irish politics, particularly in relation to:

they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over

which has always bneen pretty clear, non?

and

the electorate get to decide

man oh man fuck the electorate. we need a new electorate.

electorate is old ppl

are you saying that they will die soon and then we will have a new one?

at the next election the electorate get to decide whether these guys have committed an offence that makes them unworthy of sitting in parliament.

Kind of. I mean, they can either vote for these people or vote for someone they completely disagree with, conduct or not.

yeah the hope that there will be a huge influx of new candidates, or even a small inlux of new candidates with a reasonable chance of success, is unrealistic.

which has always bneen pretty clear, non?

it's a lesson that does not always seem to have sunk in. Apparently significant numbers of people in Labour are talking about "keeping their options open", which basically means going into govt with FF.

in fairness to people who go into government with FF, the PDs did well in two elections where they were FF's coalition pals.

Apparently significant numbers of people in Labour are talking about "keeping their options open",

here's an option, Labour- get FF out, and start earning your fucking money.

jesus christ can you imagine if they start getting cute about the coalition now.

Did they? I thought the number of TDs they managed to return diminished with each election. I can't remember though, and that might just have been a function of them being essentially crap and unsustainable as a party anyway.

FF are pissing on their chips in the long run, as they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over.

Clear to who (whom?) though? If anyone in Labour is honestly thinking about going into coalition with FF, then the lesson is clearly still far from being learned.

Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.

Labour can't go with FF, now that I've taken a few deep breaths. Not only on the historical evidence of the long-term damage it does to smaller parties, but also because there's a genuine groundswell of support for Labour's politics and policies (well, as I assume those to be anyway) that will not come around again in a generation, and they would kick that into touch in an instant were they even to be suspected of considering an FF coalition.

RIP BIG MAN

Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.

for a while, the PDs did better in elections when they were in government (with FF) than when they were in opposition. Maybe they had more to show for their supporters. Or something.

However, the PDs also had a tendency to do very badly in elections every so often, so it maybe was only a matter of time before they did so badly they got wiped out. It might be reading too much into it to say they were wiped out because they were in coalition with FF - they were just bound to get a very bad result sooner or later.

PD's political ideology is always going to be cyclically popular or otherwise to a much larger extent than FF, FG. Same with Lab, to be fair, but probably not to the saem extent.

Govt with FF (particularly Justice/Health ministerial posts, how can you win votes on those issues?) was just the killer blow, maybe.

NAMA seems to have been completely ignored on this thread. anybody else think its a terrible idea? there are plenty of alternatives to this crap shoot.

I'm not normally (hell maybe I am) one to just go along with barroom solicitors' opinion, but NAMA really is just a bailout for developers and banks, to the detriment of everybody else. I've not seen the proposals for dealing with the empty properties across the country, but if the social housing lists aren't decimated then NAMA will have been a complete whitewash.

cullen admitted to hospital now. jeez i'd say minister's health/life/income protection insurance is going through the roof.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hFNcC7dde6DREm6fdWhjfr3cqCDwD9EGNS980

Now there's a surprise, whodathoughit?

Never mind that

so, have i got this right-

monday morning- director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

tuesday- anglo irish admit that pay rises are going ahead in a bank that's effectively in receivership to the government

wednesday- another director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned

i mean.

tbh i only think this is all funny now

tbh it's funny now.

tbh it's not going to be when the crash comes, and we get to look back on this last decade like americans in the 1930-40's looked on wall street in the 1920's

the crash comes?

when the crash comes.

do people in ireland expect it to get drastically worse than it already is?

tbh relatively ireland aint that bad, yet, its not the 80s or even the early 90s but i mean

i think it'll get iceland in september or so.

jesus

there's still a huge amount of property overvaluation propping up the banks. foreclosures haven't started with gusto yet, but they will before long. the govt were criticised about predicting a 'soft landing' for the housing market instead of a crash in early 2008. that criticism was wrong- we're in the middle of our soft landing.

there's huge amounts of empty houses- if the govt cut a deal to get these finished (create some employment for the 270k+ out of work atm, most of whom are relatively unskilled construction) and transferred to social housing as part of the NAMA deal (clear housing lists, get the blow to property value over quickly, get us off the property-as-an-'investment' fix that killed us) then we might make it.

can't see a FF led builder/banker/homeowner govt going for this, so we'll see ye at the IMF

(ps i am somewhat of a pessimist)

i read the irish times last week and it was a horror story enough what with the opaque banking system and the paedopriests

even at the time the bubble seemed deranged, at least in london there is a natural scarcity of land and influx of people that puts a highish limit on any price collapse but the value of a huge mcmansion in the irish countryside is pretty arbitrary in some senses

arbitrary?

4/5 bed mcmansions currently offered for rent at about €100 a week, and they're struggling to find biters at that. mortage on a property like that is likely to be anything from 750 pm upwards.

that's kinda insane

compared to the sort of figures i'd be familiar with the price per sq ft is negligible, so without the land having much residual value it's sort of difficult to tell what else does? i dunno, you'll notice i'm somewhat unschooled in this area

land is rural in large part, rezoned through corrupt local planning decisions. it has absolutely nil residual value in most cases, and the houses are pretty much useless without the owner taking occupation.

i'm not sure about the likes of high density apts, city & town estates in the larger metropolitan areas, but given that there was more money in that side of things i'm fairly happy to assume that even where the values are holding in terms of investor groups picking up some of the slack, the oversupply biult up during the past decade is of at least the same magnitude.

estimates on empty housing units go as far as 300,000 iirc. govt disputes this of course. driving from the west coast to dublin, i'd not be surprised- anywhere west of the shannon new estate occupancy seems to be at about 20% for any development built in the past 3-4 years.

The Construction Industry Federation has said there is a need for accurate, reliable data on housing stock levels.

It was responding to research by UCD which found that there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

The CIF acknowledges that the figure is high but said different studies have come back with a variety of figures.

Its own figures suggest that 35,000-40,000 new homes remain unsold.

It says in Dublin the problem of unsold housing will resolve itself in around nine months, and with no development in the pipeline waiting-lists for housing will result in high growth areas.

The CIF admitted there is a problem in many counties around the country but said the market will ultimately sort that out.

the CIF are economists with the country's best interests at heart. they have rather magnificently been trying to float the idea of knocking all the empty houses as a keynesian macguffin exercise, because, hey, if oversupply's the problem then we've all got sledgehammers, right? expect sledgehammer rental prices, sledgehanmmer wielder wages to rise 40% this year. and on we go.

there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.

and there are about 4 million people? that's just.....

i dunno

no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.

everyone gets 1/16 of a house, assumign that all of the units will be accepted into NAMA (they won't be, but then there will be plenty of occupied units taken in under the 'We'll cover your stupidity' initiative.

so what will you do with the airing cupboard of a bungalow in offaly?