2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

(unless im wrong but im basing this on a Dec. 1st article saying that 'saturday' the DNC stripped MI delegates)

oh!

obama eating into clinton's hispanic vote

The tracking data suggest [Clinton's] support advantage among Hispanics may be eroding, at least on a national level. In the Feb. 5-9 data, Clinton led Obama by nearly 2-to-1, 63%-32%, among Hispanic Democratic voters. In the most recent polling, the two are essentially tied among this constituency, with 50% preferring Obama and 46% Clinton.

deej i think all candidates are opportunistic if they're any good at all

yeah but what dnc rules is obama breaking??

the campaigns had to make early moves to schedule events in MI and FL cos the two states were threatening to move their primaries ahead of IA and NH! this is the actual controversy (which somewhat murkily has been blamed on the GOP too, now -- i'm not nearly wonky enough to look into that). dean and the dnc stripping their delegates for doing so looks a bit harsh, but it preserves the pride of place of "small states" (arguably helps out smaller candidacies)(yeah right), and the overall stability of the system.

i'm all for primary reform, but letting state committees race each other to see who can hold their events first is not the way to do it.

this is a crazy article about florida and the charge-countercharge the campaigns were making:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jan/28/me-clinton-obama-guess-states-weight/?news-politics

Don Fowler of South Carolina, a Clinton backer and a member of the national Democratic Party's rules committee, said, "Just the mere announcement that you're coming there could be interpreted as a breach of the rules."

But Clinton has accused Obama of violating the pledge as well, by airing a national television ad that reached viewers in Florida. Fowler called that "the much bigger problem, in my mind."

Obama denied that violated the pledge. He said he got clearance to run the ad from South Carolina Democratic Party chairwoman Carol Fowler, who is Don Fowler's wife. The two have opposing views on the boycott.

gff what i don't understand is why votes even took place at all. what's the point?

I think the florida deal was that the gop moved their primary way up and there is a law that both party primaries have to be held on the same day. so the Florida dems were kind of stuck. they had an option to hold a later caucus that would count but instead they took their chances w/ the earlier primary and had the delegates stripped. (I think.)

because the state parties still have some autonomy from the national party and they can hold an event whenever they damn want, i guess. all the national party can do is say they won't pay attention to it.

xp

also, if it's anything like MN, lots of other party business goes on at those events, it's not just a presidential candidate poll.

what a palaver

new david brooks column happily offering the following metaphors for obama popularity:

-- drug addiction
-- psychological disorder
-- viral contagion

Equally valid metaphors for David Brooks' columns:

-- brain farts
-- canine Slaverings
-- lunatic ravings

On the February 17 edition of the NBC-syndicated Chris Matthews Show, host Chris Matthews asked his panel if "Barack Obama's oratorical ability on the lectern in front of big rooms will continue to be his winning edge?" In response, New York Times columnist David Brooks said: "Yes, but he's got to get away from colleges. Go visit a factory for once." In fact, Obama visited a Wisconsin General Motors factory, where he delivered what his campaign called a "major economic policy address" a few days before Brooks made his comment.

We have not, are not and will not pursue the pledged delegates of Barack Obama. It's now time for the Obama campaign to be clear about their intentions.

-- Clinton spokesman Phil Singer, via internet director Peter Daou

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=02&year=2008&base_name=pledged_delegates_too

lol @ comments

they shd lock the comments, that's perfect

what bothers me most about that quote is the grammar

we have not persue

lol pursue

We would absolutely not use these sorts of tactics. Senator Obama is focused on winning contests and earning the support of pledged delegates.

-- Obama spokesperson Tommy Vietor

i'm delighted they've all decided to play by queensbury rules i must say

Hello pigfucking!

so both dem candidates have met with edwards, and while i know edwards is probably waiting to hitch his wagon to the candidate who will eventually win the nomination, isn't his endorsement becoming increasingly irrelevant with each passing contest? besides a news cycle victory, what does edwards' endorsement really bring?

It's irrelevant now.

Yeah, I think Edwards could've scored a bunch of points by endorsing before 2/5, but at this point it's not really any more relevant to the process than an endorsement from any other senator or ex-senator.

guys he has delegates

he is a superdelegate, and he does have delegates, but i don't think he can gift them to either of the other candidates -- he can try to persuade them to go for one candidate or the other but ultimately they decide on their own, y/n?

y he "releases" the delegates

im sure whoever he endorses would swing a few of his delegates their way but yah prob not that big a deal at this point

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021908DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

giddyup gallup still volatile, obama leads with 1% margin

lookit the one last edwards blip awwww

How'd it go from 7% to 1% in two days? Surely it's not that bullshit plagiarism thing, is it?

yea i'm not sure what it is. in any case clinton's really been laying it on him recently. there's been so many headline of "hillary turns up heat" "hillary attacks obama" etc. that it might have had an effect

*headlines

or it could just be a one day outlier blimp sort of messed poll thingy

yesterday was a holiday - weekends and holidays notoriously less reliable polling

This thread has got Gallup het up.

the tracking poll takes 3 days of polling into its daily numbers to minimize volatility, i think, so that dip is pretty remarkable. hard to say!

sat sun mon

dude i went to high school with forwarded me this on myspace, wtf:

Ok... now I've focused a lot on Hillary Clinton and John McCain and how I think we are big trouble if either of them get elected. But I really haven't devoted much time to Obama. And for the sake of being fair... I think I should.
Really though... all I need to do is post this and refer you to the myspace page for it to all be summed up. Just in case you haven't been following my work to closely though... I will try to spell it out.

http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s131/rebekahmfarmer/Obama.jpg

Ok... what I have a problem with here is that A) the American flag is hung equal with the other flags... which it's supposed to be higher. B) It's next to Che who represents EVERYTHING the United States isn't. C)It's in an Obama for President office... which E)Is the same guy who won't wear the American flag pin or put his hand over his heard during the National Anthem.

And as most of you know... Obama belongs to the Trinity Church of Christ which sounds remarkably racist. Everything for the betterment of the black people and black this and black that. Is this where we are at people? Is this who you want? I don't even want to begin to examine the Islamic history of himself and his family. But it does get better!

Because it's interesting to know Obama also doesn't mind theft:

(some youtube vid that i'm not going to watch)

And you know what? He's going to get away with all of it because of the weak minded and weak willed afraid to offend or afraid to stand up.

You want to know what is really getting me right now? Here we are... 2008... and we are trying to select a President between a radical feminist hell bent on power, a thieving racist who has ZERO track record, and some old guy who claims to be Regan conservative just a few years after considering going to the liberal side and trying to ramrod an amnesty bill down the American peoples throat when over 80% didn't want it. And all of them… wanting open borders… all of them with some type of affiliation to the CFR… and all of them detached with the REAL American people.

I mean think about this for second. What do any of them have in common with you? Honestly? What do you think they are really going to do? Do you think they are going to stop the SPP? Do you honestly think they are going to secure the borders? Do you honestly think that was is going to be avoided? Do you honestly think that the troops are going to come back even when all three of them have admitted that under their plans… it would be impossible? Do you think that they are going to lower your taxes when all three of them are talking about raising them?

Don't even go there. One of my local blogs has been fretting itself into hernias trying to get media to attack Obama for the Che flag.

wau

SPP?

Just so everyone's clear, that picture was taken BEFORE that office became an Obama campaign office.

so I guess Wisconsin allows for same-day voter registration and is an open primary -- the name of the game is GOTV, i guess.

OMG! That's not Che. That's Willie Horton in a beret!

whoever put that flag up was a goddamn idiot though, jesus keep yr eye on the ball

</gym coach>

gym coach OTM