What is HYS?
― Tom D., Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:54 (sixteen years ago) link
Technology sector will probably be hit less hard as well, especially if not too reliant on the consumer or individual big business customers.
(xpost - BBC Comments Box mentalists innit)
― Matt DC, Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:55 (sixteen years ago) link
have your say -----> I think also that 'shitbin' offends me. It reminds me of all the HYS posts that start "This country has now officially gone to the dogs".
-- Ned Trifle II, Thursday, February 14, 2008 11:46 AM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Link
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:56 (sixteen years ago) link
Where do they distill whiskey in the UK? Norn Ireland?
scotland? ok i was clutching at a straw
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:56 (sixteen years ago) link
Whisky!!!!!!!!!!
― Tom D., Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:57 (sixteen years ago) link
oops!
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:57 (sixteen years ago) link
"Shitbin" was first used to bash the Bush administration = it is an liberal word. Official right-wing parlance is "hell in a handcart".
― Matt DC, Thursday, 14 February 2008 11:58 (sixteen years ago) link
Since most of HYS is written by a curious alliance of ILxors and bored BBC staffers I don't think we need to pay it too much serious attention.
― Dingbod Kesterson, Thursday, 14 February 2008 12:00 (sixteen years ago) link
Have Dolcis gone under? Or are they being taken over?
Are they one of those companies that are to pricey to be budget, but too cheap to have cachet? Would think such a store should do ok in middle england though, all the same.
― laxalt, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:07 (sixteen years ago) link
Into administration: "the first big high street casualty of the credit crunch".
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article3228324.ece
― Bocken Social Scene, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:18 (sixteen years ago) link
"The writing was on the wall when the foreign rubbish started to flood in and shoes gave way to trainers, it all seems like "LIFE ON MARS " now the end of another British era.
Steve, coventry, uk"
― Bocken Social Scene, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:21 (sixteen years ago) link
That Poles Depart story (do you see what I did there?)
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=98895&in_page_id=34
There was a time when East European migrants looking to boost their finances felt Britain's streets were paved with gold.
But now it seems these shores have lost their economic lustre and the Poles are going back home.
Our weak pound and failing economy combined with a boom in Poland is tempting many to head East, say Polish economists.
The news came as the Bank of England predicted a tough year ahead with growth slowing dramatically and inflation remaining high.
'Many Poles left for Britain when British salaries were four times higher than Polish ones. But now they are only twice as high,' said Alfred Adamiec at Poland's Noble Bank.
A mass exodus was unlikely, but the Poles are going rather than coming, said Dr Jan Mokrzycki, head of the Federation of Poles in Great Britain.
Those who failed to save up money in Britain can now return home without the 'stigma of failure', said migration expert Pawel Kaczmarczyk.
But it's not all about the money, reckons Adam Pniewski, 28, who returned to West Poland, this month.
He said: 'I've had enough of doing nothing but earning money. It's more important to live among people that love you.'
An estimated one million Poles have come to Britain or Ireland since 2004.
http://img.metro.co.uk/i/pix/2008/02/PolesAN_175x125.jpg Fewwer(sic) Poles now check the small ads
― onimo, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:21 (sixteen years ago) link
Sales of M&Ms and Coke remain strong.
― onimo, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:22 (sixteen years ago) link
Credit crunch not really all that relevant here - Dolcis has been struggling for years and had zero brand equity anyway. People don't want shit mid-market when they can go to Primark, or whatever the equivalent for shoes is.
― Matt DC, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:23 (sixteen years ago) link
Meanwhile house prices are sliding, with Scotland experiencing its first quarterly fall in seven years: http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gWVCOTd8BfjnQDBi3R79JqWL0yrw
Average Scottish house price falling £60 a day: http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/display.var.2047526.0.house_prices_fall_by_60_a_day.php
Number of unsold properties in England highest since 1999, ratio of agents reporting falling prices vs rising price at highest since the 1992 crash: http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/display.var.2047526.0.house_prices_fall_by_60_a_day.php
― onimo, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:32 (sixteen years ago) link
oops, final link should be http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article3361789.ece
Yes I was kind of wondering if Dolcis had just finally reached the end of the line. Wouldn't normally expect a midrange shoe shop to be one of the first casualties
― Stewart Payne, Friday, 15 February 2008 11:39 (sixteen years ago) link
in say 2 years time what will the impact of the recession be on rent prices on a flat in a city centre? in the city where i live, apparently 45% of flats are unoccupied at any one time, admittedly this includes all the nasty rougher places on the outskirts but is this normal and can it be sustained?
― NI, Saturday, 16 February 2008 17:33 (sixteen years ago) link
Which city do you live in?
Conventional logic says if people stop buying completely and consider themselves longer term renters, and investors sell flats off, this would increase number of renters and decrease numbers of places to rent, and finally push prices up
But:
-The huge oversupply of city centre flats available to rent isn't going to disappear overnight (and, incredibly, they're still building them!
-In a recession, numbers of people renting might actually fall, partly immigrants returning home, but also people returning to live with parents as job market implodes
Personally I think large numbers of those city centre flats may never be occupied. may well end up functioning as social housing in the end, but the govt will probably have to build more people to put in them
Also the appeal of living in them is going to pall, for renters now as well as buyers, most are as you say half-empty at best, questionably built, and will probably function as social housing in the nearish future. They were always going to be the slums of the future, but that future might be a lot nearer than imagined
or, to put it another way, can you think of even one reason why the rent on one of those would be more expensive in 2010 than today?
― laxalt, Saturday, 16 February 2008 18:33 (sixteen years ago) link
"slums of the future" has become my phrase of the day.
― Aimless, Saturday, 16 February 2008 18:42 (sixteen years ago) link
(I'm in Manchester, where I notice new building work for apartment complexes pretty much every month.)
― NI, Saturday, 16 February 2008 19:00 (sixteen years ago) link
had a feeling it might be Manchester!
― laxalt, Saturday, 16 February 2008 19:01 (sixteen years ago) link
Is this social housing of the future thing a realistic prospect? How would it work? ie. would the govt pay a decent price to landlords to buy it off them?
Are rent prices artificially high right now, like house prices?
― NI, Saturday, 16 February 2008 19:02 (sixteen years ago) link
I don't know how it will work. I don't think the landlords are in a position to ask for a decent price (but it might be that they buy directly from developers) - this is pure speculation, i actually really don't know how they are going to fill those places, they may well just be left, but empty blocks is not good for crime etc
Are rent prices artificially high? No, i wouldn't say that exactly, after all they are lower than house prices, but i guess they are also a consequence of years of flooding the economy with cheap debt
I think the ASKING prices for these particular places is probably too high, im sure you get most of them a LOT cheaper. and perhaps the actual rents on these particular glass fronted city centre flats is too high (do they really look like 'luxury 21st century living' to anyone?), but i'd say its a jump from that to saying that rent prices are too high
It'll be interesting to see what happens to rent prices in general in the recession, but these city centre flats aren't indicative of much, other than enormous folly
― laxalt, Saturday, 16 February 2008 19:08 (sixteen years ago) link
(sorry, i mean i think its a jump to saying that rent prices - in general, for regular places - is too high)
for regular places, i think rents will probably stay around the same, depending how bad the recession pans out (but its been distorted so much its very difficult to tell)
― laxalt, Saturday, 16 February 2008 19:11 (sixteen years ago) link
Thoughts on the nationalisation of Northern Rock anyone? I'm not really sure I know what I think of this.
― Matt DC, Monday, 18 February 2008 09:13 (sixteen years ago) link
If it was going to happen, should have happened last September. Interesting that no one ever talked about bailing out, or nationalizing, Dolcis tho;)
I think they have changed the rules so that any other banks in same boats can now be bailed out in secret? Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester obviously both in similar waters to NR over the last year or so. All 3 of these are still relatively small fry though (I guess the interesting one is RBS/Natwest). Banks, more than anything else, really can't be permitted to go under - but at the moment it can still be painted that NR is a one-off situation
The thing is, aren't NR still dishing out crazy mortgages? Which means, the govt, and by extension we the public, are now sub-prime lenders!
If you have savings, could think about moving them to NR, their rates aren't bad, and its the safest bank in town now
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:13 (sixteen years ago) link
The other thing is..if NR were the dodgiest of the subprime lenders, this means they will surely have the highest repossession figures once they start really rising
Which means the government will be the ones repossessing peoples houses?
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:29 (sixteen years ago) link
When NR initially got into difficulties we were repeatedly told that their "mortgage book" was one of the best about, i.e. they specifically weren't a dodgy subprime lender. The problem, we were told, was their method of raising the cash to fund these good mortgages (i.e. loan finance) which was going to the money markets, which had crunched up bigstyle.
Is that wrong?
― Tim, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:34 (sixteen years ago) link
No, Northern Rock got into shit because their business model was over-reliant on being able to access credit, which suddenly dried up. It wasn't because they were particularly dodgy subprime lenders themselves.
(xpost yes, Tim is correct)
― Matt DC, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:35 (sixteen years ago) link
They did source a larger amount of their finance from money markets than any of the others, correct
But NR were one of the ones that were lending out the very high salary multiples, and while its true that outfits like B&B are probably more active in subprime than NR, i think they all have been to some extent (read recently that Derbyshire Building Society have a high % of non-prime, and they're a mutual, with supposedly some sense!)
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:38 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.northernrock.co.uk/mortgages/together.asp
together is different to a normal mortgage. It works by combining your secured mortgage with an unsecured loan at a single interest rate with one monthly payment. This combination can be worth up to 125% of your home’s value.
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:41 (sixteen years ago) link
I'm not really sure what your point is. If your point is that Northern Rock are worse/more mental mortgage lenders than any of the others, I don't really know but it seems doubtful and certainly wasn't the main reason for what went wrong.
If you mean the government will be the ones repossessing homes then yes, by extension, some, and there could be an enormous furore about this if Northern Rock repossessions do appear disproportionate to other banks later down the line. I've no idea whether they will. Presumably the government will look to get Northern Rock off its hands as quickly as possible?
― Matt DC, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:45 (sixteen years ago) link
My point is that NR were a subprime lender (even though, yes, the trigger for their collapse, was a model over-reliant on money markets for financing - which i'm not disputing. However the reasons they were reliant on that sourcing were partly because of how they leant out)
And that this therefore means a significant proportion of forthcoming repossessions will be by NR/govt
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:50 (sixteen years ago) link
we were repeatedly told that their "mortgage book" was one of the best about
Yes, we were. But, considering no one has been persuaded to take on this profitable 'mortgage book', even with many incentives to do so, then...do we believe it?
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:10 (sixteen years ago) link
Presumably the government will look to get Northern Rock off its hands as quickly as possible?
bang-up job so far!
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:16 (sixteen years ago) link
re. NR's subprime exposure -- are we talking about subprime lending in the UK?
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:21 (sixteen years ago) link
yes
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:23 (sixteen years ago) link
oic.
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:26 (sixteen years ago) link
repossessions are going up anyway -- faith in a "good mortgage book" is hard to come by even if the loans aren't strictly subprime. or at least that seems to explain why no-one would touch NR with yours.
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:28 (sixteen years ago) link
Also, what is prime today can be subprime tomorrow
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:30 (sixteen years ago) link
Also when your brand is a national byword for 'financial incompetence and failing economy' its going to be difficult to persuade people it's worth investing in.
― Matt DC, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:34 (sixteen years ago) link
Ugh apostrophes.
― Matt DC, Monday, 18 February 2008 11:36 (sixteen years ago) link
Ironically this means the government is now be responsible for the creation of money!
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:02 (sixteen years ago) link
(other than coins and notes obviously)
― laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:03 (sixteen years ago) link
On the other hand, Barclays seems to have done alright, considering.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 20 February 2008 09:23 (sixteen years ago) link
yes, considering.
although of course those are the 2007 figures, including the benign first 7 months of last year.
― laxalt, Wednesday, 20 February 2008 09:49 (sixteen years ago) link
Northern Rock has apparently put 2% on Labour's poll ratings.
Does anyone in this country actually have the slighest fucking clue who they're voting for next election?
― Dom Passantino, Wednesday, 20 February 2008 09:52 (sixteen years ago) link
Mentalist swings in poll ratings are kind of New Labour chickens coming home to roost. In the same way the Tories were undone in 1997 by the fact the voters they created had loyalty to no one, New Labour neutralisation of ideology means that people will grasp at anything that may swing their decision.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 20 February 2008 09:55 (sixteen years ago) link
Yes, it also depends on the extent to which Barclays' accountants have written off its exposure to subprime-based securities though. If they've taken the full hit now then they'll be able to move on, if there are worse revelations to come then they're kind of inaccurate.
They'd have been wise to write it off now IMO.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 20 February 2008 09:58 (sixteen years ago) link