48 Crash - FIFA World Cup 2026

Of course we'll need a thread.

Such a bleak World Cup but I'm still p excited for it just because it's the World Cup.

that about sums it up. can't even pretend i'm gonna tune it out.

the level of "greetings fellow soccer fans" hype from advertisers and TV stations feels extra cringe this year but maybe that's just me

Yeah it's all p weird. I wish there more daytime games also, obviously that's more a gripe with football rather than every other bad thing.

Games I'm particularly looking forward to in group phase are Ecuador Germany and Scotland Brazil. Scotland Brazil feels so set up for "a famous night" for Scotland.

i don't remember the schedule being so bad in previous USA and Mexico tournaments, I assume this is another innovation of the moneyball era but maybe my memory's just shit. gonna miss a lot of group games which makes me v sad

https://i2-prod.dailyrecord.co.uk/article37218975.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200c/0_IRN-BRU-are-set-to-reveal-a-completed-John-McGinn-mural-in-the-coming-daysjpeg.jpg

HE'S READY

to come home at the end of the group stage and get a good rest and a productive pre-season

haha naw but there'll be a lot of folk watching them with great interest and hopefully they can give em something to cheer about

This was the thread

https://www.ilxor.com/ILX/ThreadSelectedControllerServlet?boardid=1078909029&threadid=116760

Probably good not to use it as it has that awful fucking song at the top, however idk maybe listening to that awful fucking song will get us all in the correct mood.

i made a conscious decision to start with a clean slate

If only we could do the same for the world cup

It is once again v hard not to think Spain will go all the way. But Argentina to retain may be just as likely. Surely it's time for France to really fuck up again.

Definitely gonna be a bit weird waking up in the morning and checking what happened overnight but also a bit of a relief now it's this big.

Harder than usual to predict a surprise pacakage too - too many contenders and permutations.

Love the idea of Mexico winning not just one knockout game (unless it's v England tho would still rather go out to them than anyone else). Just beating a team of the same or better quality in the knockout would be momentous.

USA look pretty chaotic but the potential to surpass expectations is there.

https://i.postimg.cc/dVPX26Lq/IMG-0746.jpg

He’s ready (pending outcome of an MRI).

Although they have no midfield, I think Brazil could do ok this time.

Türkiye could have a good run. Mexico v South Africa has potential to be a great opener.

Not expecting it to be as even as their 2010 opener really but will admit I'm probably under-rating all the African sides (tho on their current form Panama could beat Ghana) and will be glad to be wrong.

I got Curaçao and Tunisia in the work sweepstake

I have invested a choice £20 on an accumulator on all the games against teams like Qatar, Curacao and New Zealand that could earn me a couple grand. Of course upsets happen but some of the disparities in quality seem massive.

one of the best bits of a World Cup is when those disparities suddenly evaporate tbh

New Zealand were the only unbeaten team at the World Cup in 2010, iirc!

Kinda want Iran to spank them ngl

haha naw but there'll be a lot of folk watching them with great interest and hopefully they can give em something to cheer about

Any team that brings Hanley, Souttar, McKenna and Ralston to a World Cup is on a hiding to nothing.

Kind of want to see chaos on par with the French Open men's tennis championships. We are surely guaranteed that in the US, but also what the heat (or heavy rains?!) will bring to the competition.

Must be awesome if your country is playing in Canada (or especially) Mexico.

And yeah like many I am sad not to be able to watch every single game.

Really want to see a new winner.

Reading some of the previews.

In The Guardian there is this weird bit on "What to expect from Fans" and reads stupid

What to expect from the fans
Czech supporters are unlikely to travel in big numbers in the same way as, say, England, Argentina or Mexico, but those who do are usually passionate, loud and heavily beer-fuelled (but not in a violent way). They traditionally sing simple chants such as “Cesi do toho!” (“Come on, Czechs!”) and create a friendly atmosphere mixed with self-deprecation and dark humour. Violence is very rare around the national team compared with club football. Just reaching the World Cup was worthy of heavy celebration and not many fans will have the financial resources to travel to the US and Mexico. The ones who make it, though, will not be quiet.

I was in Prague during the 2004 Euros (where they were briefly favourites) and this does not ring true at all, sadly the national team shared the support of the racist skinheads with Sparta.

Relationship with the US/Trump
In his first term as president, Trump often talked about Korea. His pursuit of a Nobel peace prize made him surprisingly amicable toward the then-leaders of the North and South, earning him a peculiar brand of popularity in Seoul. His second term, however, has struck a different chord. A public once intrigued is now fatigued by a tenure defined by tariffs and erratic foreign policy. Reports suggesting his administration pushed for Italy to replace Iran in the World Cup have only cemented his image as a reckless disruptor in the eyes of the Korean public

There is also this bit where every country's relationship with the Trump admin is evaluated.

xp yeah I am sure there will be many funniest/inaccuracies

Iraqi footballer Aymen Hussein issued a statement after being detained and questioned for seven hours upon entering the United States:

“If America is so hostile towards foreign nationals, why is it hosting the #2026WorldCup?”

move all the US-based games to Canada and Mexico imo

If the US had an ok team and it's performance could impact in the polls the government might have engineered a win.

The USA have blocked the Somali Referee Omar Artan from entering the USA, the Referee who is rated the best in Africa was blocked at entry, so he got the Somalian embassy to give him a Diplomatic Passport.

But the USA still refuses to let him in.

The USA need to be disqualified pic.twitter.com/GFjX2I4vLu

— BladeoftheSun (@BladeoftheS) June 8, 2026

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7340272/2026/06/07/kansas-city-shooting-england-world-cup-base/

Sorry this is the US Pol thread until we start kicking a ball about

BREAKING: Spain football star Yamal may not be at start of Spain’s World Cup match due to US Visa issues.

Natanyahu has personally requested for Yamal not to be allowed into the US 🇺🇸 as he was seen holding Palestinian flag 🇵🇸 during a celebration. pic.twitter.com/ZIWT8RXARS

— HODAN HOMES (@HodanHomes) June 9, 2026

Hopefully it's bollocks

That can't be true.

think he's got an injury for first two games
presume he's in USA already tho?

It's a spoof, come on

What has happened at the #2026WorldCup over the last 48 hours:

• Swiss footballer Embolo's visa was put under review and he was only able to join his team days later.

• Iraqi national team player Aymen Hussein was held for questioning for nearly 7 hours upon entering the United States.

• The Iranian national team spent days dealing with visa procedures at the U.S. Consulate in Türkiye. The U.S. only allowed them entry on match days. Fifteen members of the delegation were denied visas.

• Omar Abdulkadir Artan, named CAF's Best African Referee of 2025, was denied a visa. Despite travelling to the U.S. with a diplomatic passport, he was refused entry and sent back. FIFA announced that he will not be able to officiate at the tournament.

• The South African national team arrived in the United States much later than planned because part of the delegation was not granted visas.

• Members of the Senegal national team staff were forced to remove their shoes and subjected to lengthy searches, sparking accusations of racism.

• The Uzbekistan national team was searched with bomb-sniffing dogs and the footage went viral in international media.

• Some Scottish supporters, despite being eligible to enter the U.S. visa-free under the ESTA programme, had their travel authorisations revoked just days before departure.

• Many supporters who had already bought tickets and booked accommodation had their visa applications rejected, resulting in financial losses.

This is a little summary.

Any foreigner has to be crazy to travel to the US under any circumstances unless there's some critical personal issue, and the WC wouldn't fall under that.

i'm sure FIFA will take strong action

Some Scottish supporters, despite being eligible to enter the U.S. visa-free under the ESTA programme, had their travel authorisations revoked just days before departure.

What's this all about though?

wondering if it's a social media history check thing

https://www.readthemaple.com/canada-silent-as-american-authorities-throw-world-cup-into-chaos/

Canada, one of the tournament co-hosts, has not issued any official statement regarding the latest interruptions.

In April, Canadian border staff turned away Iranian footballing officials, forcing them to miss the pre-tournament FIFA Congress in Vancouver. Palestinian football officials also had difficulties obtaining Canadian visas for the conference.

I mean, Amnesty International is warning people not to travel to the US

bbc is ready

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Total votes

France (9): Scott Brown, Gael Clichy, Rachel Corsie, Olivier Giroud, Danny Murphy, Paul Robinson, Tony Pulis, Alan Shearer & Chris Sutton

England (7): Thomas Frank, Joe Hart, Steph Houghton, Martin Keown, Wayne Rooney, Sue Smith & Ellen White

Spain (1): Micah Richards

Expert opinions there.

Joe Hart: England. But I am not actually that bothered whether I am right or wrong. I just like to back my people and I want England to do it.

we are paying for this guy to say this stuff.

He's breaking down the facade of BBC impartiality

does anyone here think england will win it?

who is our joe hart?

That'll be me. Scotland will win the World Cup.

You'll really shake them up when you win the World Cup

Scotland is the greatest football team so QED.

there's been some weird journalism from the BBC the last few days as football reporters are apparently discovering for the first time that

- football is a team sport
- you can only have 11 people in a team at the same time

pundits explaining this to their audience like they've discovered some arcane and puzzling mystery

The coverage is so patronising, like I feel they deeply underestimate the knowledge and intelligence of their audience, even accepting that it's a wide range of people and interest levels.

weren't you complaining about them doing exactly that more than a decade ago when you were an insider, this is just what they've been for ages

I guess more specifically my question is like — who is the bill james, or the tom tango, the john hollinger, the dean oliver, etc, of soccer? who are the cutting edge analysts/theorists that are behind changes in tactics or team building strategies, and what are their ideas?

worth mentioning that in baseball and basketball, there really have been significant changes in the way the game is played over the last couple of decades, based in part on math(s) which “traditional” fans have very much not liked. it’s just what this conversation reminded me of and I was wondering if there was a particular luminary to familiarize myself with

none of those are the names of real people is this trolling am i being trolled

I don’t need you all to take time out of your day to explain it all to me but if there were like, even a wikipedia page that would be nice because I’ve found nothing so far except some AI slop

the tom tango of european football my word i guess that would be the spanish genius of the clipboard and cap, hetheth "javi" copacabana

on a serious note

theres loads and im not necessarily a good source because across the board you can look at tactics (klopp and gegenpressing or whatever that was, guardiola tictactico, keeper press, low crossing is now the only approach, im gonna buy haaland as a laugh)

but a club like brentford (probably others) took a very interesting data led approach to buying untested epl youth dropouts and climbed up the leagues with a highly statistical/probabilistic model and head of data/strategy roles there are heavily credited with a lot of their success

etc etc

possession as the point of the game is the true americanisation of sawker and is to be fought at every stage

― Wichita Referee's Assistant (darraghmac), Tuesday, July 21, 2026 7:18 AM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglin

Oh that's the good stuff. xps

Surely though this would be a lot of 100m sprinters and 7ft giants trying to get to route one passes? Rodri would be banished.

Though Mbappe could work in that system. He would hate it though

all sorts of reasons why i can't find a good concise summary of the debate but a quick skim says this piece might be ok kevin?

https://themastermindsite.com/2019/09/21/counter-attacking-and-the-death-of-tiki-taka-football/

note that this was from 2019 so the death of tiki taka might've been announced prematurely

similar changes in basketball over the past couple of decades emphasizing shots from certain parts of the court over others.

Through twitter I have picking up bits of this. Apparently you guys have 'optimised' stuff a lot.

an issue is that very few clubs actually match structures and managers amd owner approaches all also vary so alchemy tends to disrupt any real go at finding a thread of approaches that work

eg director of football was all the rage there for a while then it was no scouting using data then it was all about leveraging the financial muscle as a strategy

genuine tactical advances rely on a manager having so many swirling factors stay still long enough to work for him without any change that its tough to say what inputs matter or dont

then there's zidane and ancelotti who players just like, play for.

thanks NV will check that out. deems’ mention of brentford led me to this article, which was a little light on actual tactical details but is generally the sort of primer I was looking for:

https://archive.ph/i3MR0

thomas frank turned out to be the genius, he went on to incredible success in subsequent roles

Kev a lot of the recent tactical debate has been around ‘relationism and positionalism’. A lot of thought was given to how Xabi Alonso won the league with Leverkusen. Article here if you can bear it: https://www.itsjustasport.com/articles/2023/5/8/relationism-vs-positionism

Also google Jamie Hamilton for any number of podcast appearances

Agree with darraghmac that there are so many swirling factors and so much dysfunction within clubs and within the sport that genuine tactical advances tend to be fleeting and will fall over eventually for any number of reasons.

Money is probably the greatest guarantor of sustained success, either player wages in the club game or through investment in youth/grassroots/coaching at international level. Argentina are widely acknowledged to invest most/most sensibly in coaching which may explain their level compared to the rest of South America (that plus Messi i guess)

k3vin, google “tony pulis”

but a club like brentford (probably others) took a very interesting data led approach to buying untested epl youth dropouts and climbed up the leagues with a highly statistical/probabilistic model and head of data/strategy roles there are heavily credited with a lot of their success

Heart of Midlothian FC.

Baseball surely cannot be compared to football, the same way that cricket can’t. The only opposition is the fella throwing the ball. It is not a Pep’s Barca v Jose’s Inter situation. Basketball surely a lot more so a direct comparison but my only knowledge comes from that Netflix documentary.

My opinion here is that every manager who could read got a copy of Moneyball at the same time, started giving opta some money and all wondered why their signings weren’t all Dirk Kuyt. Kinda a “if everyone is looking at stats, then no one is” everyone negating each other kind of situation. The fastest runners by eye were the fast runners by stats and they still ended up playing right back at City because City have the most money. We all know that possession football can be an ultimate way of winning but if you have Aaron Ramsdale playing it out to your centre halves, you are gonna get punished because it only works if you have players of real technical ability.

Often I feel like the real tactics innovators are the ones who get the best out of mediocre players. Regularly you can see players leave Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford and assume they will become world beaters but Dean Huijsen wasn’t picked for this World Cup and it seems like everyone at Real wonders why they got ripped off. Those three teams play differently to each other and often differently each season to try and get the best out of their players. I guess that’s moneyball stuff but it’s also no different to what Clough did. Managers at the top often really struggle with this. Pep is a great example, each season buying a new Philips or Grealish and smothering any joy and grace from their game. He’d still win the league though, so do I know what the fuck I’m on about?

That is day to day stuff though. Kev talking about changing to first base or no longer doing free throws - massive dramatic shifts? Brazil played 4-2-4 in the 50s. England 4-3-3 in the 60s while Italians invented catenaccio. Cruyff and Michels changed how we see possession football in the 70s. Sacchi and Capello bewildered teams with intense high up pressing in the late 80s and early 90s - didn’t Capello’s Milan go unbeaten for like 60 games? Much like no new rock music is really new after a certain point, there is just variations on a theme - everything after that is a version of these big changes. Jose parking the bus has its roots in the catenaccio, Pep was trained by Cruyff. As much has also come from other factors, like better pitches, better training etc. because there is as a time when the Ramsdale equivalent just couldn’t badly pass to his defence along the ground and would have to hoof it up field. Is that a moneyball type thing though? I remember watching Match of the Day once and they were basically screaming at him to do it, showing calamity clip after calamity clip. That team (Southampton?) would have had just the same opta stats geeks on the go. But bad tacticians are still bad tacticians, regardless of data. And France’s forwards would still be on the data board as a million times better than Spain’s forwards. But Deschamps is a prat.

Brazil played 4-2-4 in the 50s. England 4-3-3 in the 60s while Italians invented catenaccio. Cruyff and Michels changed how we see possession football in the 70s.

The Hungarians were using a deep-lying centre forward in the 50s - famously bamboozling the England team in the process... twice.

as a novice to the game I found Inverting the Pyramid a good primer not just for what has happened tactically in the game and how it came to be played the way it is, but the underlying reasons for some of those innovations, kinda the "swirling factors" aspect

also this, but that's all professional sports obv:

Money is probably the greatest guarantor of sustained success

still not much of a tactics understander but it seems to me the 3/5 in the back way of playing has made a comeback in recent times, with outside backs becoming a big(ger) part of the offense. was that a Bielsa thing or is that just me? (speaking of names K3v should google)

none of those are the names of real people is this trolling am i being trolled

I regret to inform you they are all real, you are not being trolled, and I’m actually blocked by the most famous one on my now defunct twitter account for calling him a rape apologist (he is)

per my "lmao" comment above: it's clear that stats-heavy optimization moneyball etc tactics are having their day in many ways but I never thought of that approach as particularly American, unless of course it's a matter of ruthless competition and winning at any cost, and if that's the case you could also make a case for the "cheating cunts" approach being right up there in popularity, too which has been suggested many times itt and of course has existed since the first competition of any kind. see also the Houston Astros recently in baseball. maybe the stats approach causes the reaction of the cheating cunts, idk

would Spain have been seen as less boring if they were more efficient with their chances and didn't leave a goal on the table in several matches?

I know and love most of the stats in baseball and am usually on savant going into the detail and have cited this aspect of following the game as a plus for the, ah, neuroatypical among us (though my interest in savant is quite a bit less than it used to be) but idk idk idk I’m definitely a traditionalist in some aspects of the game, to my mind and something like expected goals fills me with a sort of horror? Idk in my mind it’s too dumb and skill reliant a sport for it to work. Baseball is a thinking person’s game, that produces countless examples of usable data. Or to use a gif I sent my friend (who works in a real life front office) as a joke but on this occasion unironically

https://i.postimg.cc/VLmcZvr9/IMG-4980.gif

xpost cos like, they had a lot of quality attacking chances, they just didn't always put them away, it's not like they were hoofing the ball keep-away style from the Washington Generals aimlessly for 30 minutes

I think xG is useful in one key way, it analyzes the types of chances you're getting and creating and, along with other metrics, can help identify where the deficiencies lie in a general sense.

the problem is there is a cult of xG (admittedly American) that actually conflates these metrics with team quality. Saw "underlying numbers" mocked itt and I laughed because that phrase causes me to get apoplectic when one of our many journalists uses it to suggest that a team isn't as good or is better than their record indicates.

There was one fairly well-respected indie footie journo from Nashville (Ben Wright) who built what he thought was a sophisticated customized Power Ranking formula in 2023, and it had the Vancouver Whitecaps at like the #6 slot despite them being 13th in the league on points, and his explanation was "yes they're losing but their xG shows they should be doing much better and are probably just unlucky"...which, ok if it's Week 3, but with one month left in the season? At that point, it ain't luck, it's who you are - if your strikers aren't scoring goals that average strikers would, that means your personnel fucking sucks!

American journos also seem to be mindblown at the fact that many top tier Euro teams greatly outperform their xG because they have otherworldly players who are capable of pulling off wondergoals that mere mortals can't, and that's why they're paid that money. I've seen fans of teams taunt fans of teams that *beat them* saying "our xG was better so you just got lucky", as if anybody cares about that shit when they're celebrating a win.

I do find advanced keeper metrics more helpful because so many dummies assume the # of goals conceded directly correlates to the keeper

would Spain have been seen as less boring if they were more efficient with their chances and didn't leave a goal on the table in several matches?

― If your ass is a Bible, 213 will regulate (Neanderthal), Tuesday, July 21, 2026 12:44 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

key to tactics moving forward must be to study Cape Verde's style

Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth are interesting examples. People hate them obviously, or wait no they don't? Spain have played this way for a couple of decades at least. Barcelona before that.

We could continue to just discuss nouns itt without bothering to agree any shared definition for any of them and I'm sure we will.

Haven't bothered mentioning XG because it's such a blind alley.

xG is the Ronaldo fans of tactics and stats and no I won’t explain what I mean

Also just mad people think data came into football/soccer by managers reading Moneyball.

I guess that’s moneyball stuff but it’s also no different to what Clough did.

It is different tho. It is absolutely and completely different. It couldn't be more different.

The Charles Hughes / John Beck / etc get it in the mixer approach to football was also stats driven. Hughes (iirc) having done some analysis that said that most goals were scored from moves consisting of three or fewer touches. The Wimbledon team were probably the purest flowering of this thinking but yeah Pulis’s Stoke were part of that picture too. Hughes ran England’s coaching for aaages and his legacy is a part of England underachieving for so long. (NB I am not saying England underachieved this time, though they largely underperformed imo)

I was using that as a short hand upthread, not that I literally think Steve Bruce sat down and read it, declaring it the second greatest book ever written, after Striker! by Steve Bruce

Right but the reason it's in English football is because of clubs hiring vast teams of people to work on data and developing their own recruitment algorithms etc. You can hate it but it isn't just oh a few managers reading a book, it's a complete revolution in the game, one that coincides with managers becoming coaches and recruitment being taken away from them.

Like they hired people whose previous role was the large hadron collider or whatever.

Isn’t that zonal marking guy an obvious analytics comp

Is he even still going

im not convinced lg is making any more coherent of a case/defence than what he is excoriating here tbh

its been, imo, a good discussion not a great discussion and there's not going to be any right or wrong because football is life na naaa na na na

This thread is a disgrace to the game. Its petulance, temperament, throwing itself on the ground. It was a disgrace to professional football. This ilx thread is a cod.

Theatrically trying to get other ILXors FP'd. The thread's gone.

Hughes (iirc) having done some analysis that said that most goals were scored from moves consisting of three or fewer touches.

either Major Frank Buckley or Stan Cullis had done this analysis at Wolves in the 1940s

One thing I can thank Trump for - buying a new Wolves jersey from the team store warns of possible duties to pay. Oh. Right.

Thanks you diseased dick of a human being!

either Major Frank Buckley or Stan Cullis had done this analysis at Wolves in the 1940s

Ah! I’d never heard that before.

World Cups over, lads. Move on. Its time to argue about how Arsenal are ruining the game from here on out.

Yup. Just what I thought about 'soccer'.

DISTANCE COVERED - 2026 FIFA WORLD CUP: FULL TOURNAMENT UPDATE

48 teams and 104 matches analyzed:

- All matches from the group stage through the final
- Team distances standardized per 90 minutes to account for extra time
- Adjustments for periods played following red cards… pic.twitter.com/cXqpuPQKgd

— Ilya Orlov (@ilyao88) July 21, 2026

hahaha, does fit into what Pirlo said about US soccer when he came to MLS - 'everybody runs too much, there's no finesse'

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/71IuyIHOwqL._AC_UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg

Trust a Russian living in Canada to Americanize things