Ladies and gentleman, I give you your MVP runnerup: Adrian Beltre

At this point Beltre would definitely finish no lower than fourth, Edmonds would be left behind. And if he keeps up his pace (50 HR is not a stretch, eek) he'd pass Rolen at least.

Doesn't matter, Bonds still takes it.

i'm afraid you're right that edmonds would be left behind, but he shouldn't be. he's one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball, plus he's got a style that's, shall we say, conducive to the highlight reels (though this may hurt as much as help, if not more), and to my eye he's trumping beltre offensively with a line of .303/.420/.633. but you're right, i think his whole persona/perception/general style is going to give him serious problems.

i'll check out the eqa/vorp/etc's of these guys in a sec.

rolen .337
belte .329
edmonds .340

vorp (offense+defensive position w/ playing time considered)

rolen 67.8
beltre 63.4
edmonds 62.9

zone ratings/defense

rolen .823 (2nd in NL)
beltre .836 (1st in NL)

edmonds .874 (5th in NL)

pujols .906 (1st in NL)

beltre's defense has been a lot better than i'd figured, judging solely by zone rating. but i've little doubt that rolen is actually superior and that the mvp voters will think so as well. plus, rolen is rolen and beltre has a reputation as a malcontent. no one is going to forget that this is his free agent year.

i'd say edmonds is probably out of it because of his reputation and because of pujols (who, if the season ended today, would not beat out rolen). the "all the other guys around him" thing might hurt rolen were it not for his league leading (or vv close to it) rbi total. i guess i'd (if it were voted on today blah blah) see beltre finishing 3rd behind bonds and rolen, though i'm not clear on the other candidates right now.

Adrian Beltre:
AB 456
BA .333
OBP .380
SLG .458
OPS 1.023
Runs 84
Hits 152
RBIs 90
HRs 39
Ks 69

Barry Bonds:
AB 286
BA .371
OBP .612
SLG .822
OPS 1.434
Runs 100
Hits 106
RBIs 79
HRs 35
Ks 24

Now, if Bonds had the ABs that Beltre had, here are some projections:

Hits: 170 (vs. Beltre's 152)
RBIs: 126 (vs. Beltre's 90)
HRs: 56 (vs. Beltre's 39)
Ks: 38 (vs. Beltre's 69)

Gagne should rest his jaw along with his arm.

Yes, A-Rod won it when the Rangers were 60 games out. The Giants are 4 out of 1st in the West and leading the wild card race.

NL MVP as of now:
Bonds
Rolen
Beltre

JD Drew has had a great season. Probably not a true MVP canidate as he isn't putting up nearly the killer numbers of these other people, but he has definitely been important to the Braves.

Having Shawn Green return to the living and adding Finley to the Dodger's lineup definitely helps Beltre. Green has been red hot since the break.

edmonds might have drawn even with rolen at this point, but he doesn't have the lofty RISP numbers. beltre's been only so-so w/ RISP but has some unbelievable clutch (close and late) which have helped his case in a huge way.

here's an article gygax is sure to love:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/040826

i love how there's this perception that bonds has just always been this good and what he's doing now is nothing special for him. i mean yeah, he was possibly the best player of the 90s but he was but a shadow of what he is now and has been the last 3 years.

Saturday's line: W 4-2 over the Mets
5-5 1HR 2RBI 2Runs

Criminy.

Barry Bonds 113.4
Albert Pujols 77.2
Adrian Beltre 77.2
Todd Helton 74.6
Jim Edmonds 73.8
Mark Loretta 68.2
Scott Rolen 67.4

NL VORP thru Saturday:
Barry Bonds 113.4
Albert Pujols 77.2
Adrian Beltre 77.2
Todd Helton 74.6
Jim Edmonds 73.8
******Mark Loretta 68.2******
Scott Rolen 67.4

contrast that attitude with sheffield or pujols, who have won i don't know how many games for their teams this year playing through pain. oh, and then there was that whole missing 5 games with a cold thing.

(ie still plenty of reason not to like the guy folks)

i love that man.

Not to mention he is at least 10 years older than Pujols (who knows for sure?) and is quite a different player than Sheffield is.

are you kidding me??

"is quite a different player than Sheffield is."

no, he's not at all. unless you mean what you probably mean, which doesn't actually have anything to do with what i'm talking about. please, don't even try to argue that bonds is half as tough as gary is. barry can (and does) have all the talent in the world, but at the end of the day he's still a pussy.

giants lose 7-6. bonds makes an out in his PH AB.

Hi John,

I've been watching Bonds for almost his entire career. While his hamstring isn't going to tear in half, i would imagine that it has never healed completely based on first hand observation. For a guy who has had only 2 substantial stays on the DL in a 19 year career and has played in less than 140 games only 1 time since 1987, your definition of "pussy" shows either a very poor or creative understanding of it.

And while your attempt to credit Bonds with the loss with his PH AB (the Giants had the lead at the time) is charming, if you'd actually watched the game you'd have seen Dustin Hermanson gave up 3 hits and a walk (2 Runs) in the bottom of the 9th while failing to retire a batter.

Well, yeah, there's plenty on-record of The Pain of The Bonds (mostly because, since I'm not in the SF area, the only non-stat noise I hear about Bonds is about his aches & pains & BB's attitude re: the aches & pains & the media's slanting of BB's attitude re: the aches & pains), but if there's a player nowadays that can deservedly get away w/ some diva histrionics, it is he, and I don't recall any outright grandstanding re: his aches & pains (which, from what I've heard, are pretty severe - I heard it takes 10 man hours for his hammies to get prepped before gametime?)

he didn't cost them the game by making a lousy out, he cost them the game by NOT PLAYING.

for a roided-up 40 year old man with a shot hammy, he still runs the bases and plays the field pretty well. so i thought, in a deadlocked wildcard race with only a month remaining in the season, where a single loss could certainly cost the giants a playoff berth, and with two days off in the coming week, he might take a risk, make an exception, and play this game. sacrifice his body a little bit, for the good of the team, like some of those other mvp candidates are. y'know, that corny old-school unselfish "white" bullshit.

(i'm just kidding of course, i never thought that. i know the guy too well)

regards

john

beltre, 3B
g - 125
eqa - .340

pujols, 1B
g - 124
eqa - .341

seems to me like beltre should have the higher VORP.

Well, it would figure to be. Even if most MVP winners are from one of the 8 playoff teams, odds of the player's team going on to get the trophy is roughly 1 in 8, given that most postseason series are a coin flip (or "fucking luck" as Mr Beane put it).

>seems to me like beltre should have the higher VORP

Pujols has nearly 40 more plate appearances.

no one will agree with me on this and he won't win, but it's gotta be sheffield in the AL.

Through Sunday, Shefffield is third in the AL in Adjusted Runs Above Position, trailing only Guillen and Mora (neither of whom will get support) and just ahead of Vlad.

Another way to look at it is that teams who rely on one player for most their offense rarely win it all.

edmonds .311/.426/.672, neutral park
beltre .338/.386/.652, pitcher's park

gotta figure defense is a wash/edge to edmonds. but jimmy doesn't have great clutch/risp numbers.

the trouble of course is that rolen and pujols still loom VERY large...but i'm moving back to undecided.

Edmonds would likely be my #2 at the moment.

VORP, Sept 1

Bonds 118.9
Pujols 82.2
Edmonds 78.5

"* In terms of EqA, the gap between Bonds and Beltre is bigger than the gap between Beltre and Cody Ransom. Hell, the gap between Bonds and Beltre about as big as the gap between Beltre and Neifarious."

If the Yanks win the division despite all those pitching injuries, I think Sheff will win (although Rivera probably deserved equal credit. In a way, they're the Bonds-Schmidt combo of the AL, or at least, that is how they will be perceived).

Last year Manny was also better when he played (he was injured for several weeks last season). But he's got this Albert Belle-esque rep as a "difficult" personality and a selfish player, which the voters hate. Whereas Ortiz has the opposite rep. I think Manny would need vastly superior numbers than any of his competitors to make up that difference in the voters' eyes, and that's just not true this season.

Albert Pujols 2
Adrian Beltre 3
Jim Edmonds 4
Todd Helton 5
Lance Berkman 6
Bobby Abreu 7
Scott Rolen 8
Mark Loretta 9
J.D. Drew 10

(therefore: NOT a dopey question dave r!)

((helton?))

[and i don't care what you say, rolen should totally have been #4 dude, you've been rash]

Beltre ($11.4M)
.244/.279/.361

Boone ($9M)
.234/.299/.378

Sexson ($6M)
.244/.353/.507

Beltre

Sexson

I was looking at Beltre's comps on Baseball Reference. As you probably know, there are always three lists: one based on who you'd match up with if your career were to end today, one that compares your numbers to other careers up to your current age (the most useful), and a third list that tracks season by season. Beltre's seasonal comps:

Age 20 -- Manny Machado (952)
Age 21 -- Ron Santo (954)
Age 22 -- Ron Santo (947)
Age 23 -- Ron Santo (976)
Age 24 -- Ron Santo (945)
Age 25 -- Ron Santo (965)
Age 26 -- Ron Santo (946)
Age 27 -- Ron Santo (930)
Age 28 -- Ron Santo (933)
Age 29 -- Ron Santo (918)
Age 30 -- Ruben Sierra (916)
Age 31 -- Ron Santo (909)
Age 32 -- Ron Santo (918)
Age 33 -- Ron Santo (921)
Age 34 -- Ron Santo (884)

That's pretty remarkable. No surprise that Beltre and Santo match up well over their careers, but I doubt that there have ever been two players in the entire history of baseball more in lockstep on a seasonal basis.

Example: even when you look at Ruth, where you're obviously drawing from an extremely limited group of similar players, you get a list that's Williams from age 26-33, a few years of Foxx after that, a few years of Bonds at the end, and Chuck Klein and Manny Ramirez and Will Clark (!--age 23) mixed in.

that's pretty fucking cool clemenza.

en fuego

35, 2519 hits, 387 HR. 3000 hits should be easy--the rest of this year, two more seasons and a bit. 500 HR will be tougher, but he has a pretty good chance to be the fifth 3000/500 guy (assuming A-Rod doesn't find a way to get those last 61 hits). Pujols and Cabrera would be next in line, although I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those guys break down physically first.

Nobody cares, I realize, but I'd love to see Beltre win the batting title. If his HOF chances are as close as most people think (again, I see him close to a cinch at this point), a batting title will definitely help. He's about five points behind right now.

Garrett Richards came into the Angels’ clubhouse proudly holding a piece of paper Saturday afternoon. Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre had sent him an invoice for $300 after Richards broke three of his bats Friday night.

It was a real invoice, like Beltre went to an office-supply store and bought a pack of them or something. “Cash only, no checks,” he wrote above his signature.

http://www.ocregister.com/angels/richards-659454-angels-came.html

beltre's got a BBR WAR right now of 5.4, thanks for a productive second half. pretty amazing player.

*thanks to

Another great game today. I've been tracking him the last while too. Since July 31: .326/.379/.539, 10 HR, 52 RBI.

http://deadspin.com/adrian-beltre-wont-stand-for-elvis-andruss-lollygagging-1772008206

<3 <3

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--h3L2PQFH--/c_fit,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_320/873553504808362020.gif

the Rangers have bigger problems, eg Ian Desmond is their reg LF

Just moved past Chipper Jones and into the Top 50 on Baseball Reference's WAR list (85.3); real longshot to hit 100, but at 37 and signed through 2018, who knows.

I know it was ultimately that the McCourts were a mess, but letting Beltre walk was pretty dumb by the Dodgers.

https://twitter.com/EdwardEgrosFox4/status/763524922098409472

clearer video

https://www.facebook.com/FOXSportsSouthwest/videos/vb.53293384623/10153940073424624/?type=2&theater#

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpltKYQWAAA2g9p.jpg:small

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CplSYgwVYAQtO5W.jpg:medium
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CplS7-3VUAE-GWO.jpg:medium
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CplS8s6UEAEyFe-.jpg:medium
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CplS9VUUAAA_axq.jpg:medium

it seems like just yesterday this guy was a one-season wonder rather than a hopeful HoFer. what a strange career

he'll hit 3000 hits next year too if he plays most of the season

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v1055336083/oaktex-beltre-grabs-broom-works-on-the-infield

<3 <3 <3

i think my two favorite players of all time are Ichiro and Beltre

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/8/30/12709174/adrian-beltre-helmet-backward-pat-venditte-switch-pitcher

dude has been playing out of his mind lately, just hit his 30th HR.

I check his career box once a week. He may catch Donaldson and/or Machado in the MVP vote this year, and he'll soon pass 90 career WAR on Baseball Reference (decent shot to be the 22nd position player to reach 100 before he's finished...the equivalent of three more pretty good seasons, not easy). He's moved into the Top 25 career in AB, doubles, and total bases.

he's def going to make it to 3000 hits next year. wonder if he can make it to 500 HRs.

(obv not next year – two years left on his deal, might need a year or two of quality baseball on top of that)

Just hit 90.0 in career WAR; in the top 30 position players now (between Brett and Boggs, as luck would have it).

https://s18.postimg.org/4kvhzeo55/fibo.png

http://www.mlb.com/images/0/2/6/238935026/062617_beltre_reaction_med_bpkwyhet.gif

would watch a movie about their relationship

Beltre's homer gave him 5,003 total bases, making him the 21st player to go over 5,000 for his career. That's fewer than the 27 players with 3,000 hits and the 27 who have 500 home runs.

(And the 24 who've won 300 games.)

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241068172/adrian-beltre-surpasses-5000-total-bases/

<3

lol Aaron's record is ridiculous

It took me about five readings to parse that sentence (all 27 players with 3000 hits finished their careers with more total bases than Beltre? ... no)

Something else: he just passed (lined up in succession) Chipper, Brett, and Boggs in career WAR. He should pass Matthews if he plays another year; Schmidt is out of reach (and A-Rod, although half of his was accumulated at SS).

1.3 WAR this year (in approx 1/4th a season) vs Albert's -1.0.

noting that because i think there's a chance Beltre could catch him in WAR, since his decline has been pretty minimal vs AP's consistent downward plunge.

now 15 hits shy of 3,000.

beltre since he went to Texas (the equivalent to around 5 3/4 seasons worth of games): 39.2 WAR

pujols since he went to Anaheim (almost exactly 5 seasons worth of games): 13.7 WAR

2,996 hits now (along with getting ejected last night for messing with the on-deck circle?) He's a machine.

Maybe he has a chance at 500 HR after all. I thought the injury ruled that out, because it now requires two more years, but not slowing down so far.

Two more hits to go. A list of the most productive players as they reached 3,000 hits would be interesting--pro-rated, Beltre's in his usual ~6.0-7.0 WAR range, coming off seven straight seasons of same. He's signed for next year, then a free agent. The end can come quick at this age, and he doesn't strike me as someone who'd hang around as a part-time player, but right now he looks like a decent bet for 2019.

Because it’s a beautiful day, and why would I go outside?

Pete Rose – 37, more-or-less prime
Hank Aaron – 36, playing well
Stan Musial – 37, last good season
Derek Jeter – 37, decline phase
Carl Yastrzemsk – 39, decline phase
Paul Molitor – 39, playing well
Willie Mays – 39, decline phase
Eddie Murray – 39, last good season
Cal Ripken – 39, decline phase
George Brett – 39, decline phase
Paul Waner – 39, hanging on
Robin Yount – 36, decline phase
Tony Gwynn – 39, playing well
Alex Rodriguez – 39, decline phase
Dave Winfield – 41, decline phase
Craig Biggio – 41, hanging on
Ichiro Suzuki – 42, hanging on
Rickey Henderson – 42, hanging on
Rod Carew – 39, decline phase
Lou Brock – 40, decline phase (but good final season)
Rafael Palmeiro – 40, decline phase
Wade Boggs – 41, decline phase
Al Kaline – 39, hanging on
Roberto Clemente – 37, playing well

I skipped the early guys and just looked at post-war. Lots of subjective calls there, especially between “decline phase” and “hanging on.” Ichiro’s a special case because of his late start, and so was Clemente.

Having said that, I’d put Beltre alongside Rose, Aaron, Musial, Molitor, Murray, Gwynn, and Clemente as the 3,000-hit guys who weren’t just playing out the string to one degree or another.

Yount's a special case too. Definitely in decline, but he was still only 36, playing every day, and contributing some--and only three years removed from an MVP--so he hadn't really overstayed his welcome yet. He played one more season and retired at 37.

That led me to look up the oldest MVPs -- Bonds with 4 of the top 6, dang.

http://emulateproducts.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Anti-Aging-Elixer-Swiss-Apple-Stem-Cell-w-Organic-Moringa-Oil-3x3-inch.png

Willie 'Decline Phase' Mays at 39 (1970) was 8th in the NL in offensive winning pct (right behind Hank 'Playing Well' Aaron), had a slash of .291/.390/.506, and hit 28 homers. The next year he led the NL in walks and OBP (112, .425).

I hate doing this, but for the second time in three or four years I'll waste my time responding to you and explain something I thought would be self-evident. 1970 Willie Mays is being compared to prime Willie Mays; ditto Hank Aaron. If you think Willie Mays in 1970 = Willie Mays in 1965 or Willie Mays in 1954, that's great. And just to anticipate your next silly comment, yes, I do realize very few players = Willie Mays in 1965 or 1954. I do get that.

gold star

Similarly, Hank Aaron was a 5-win player in 1970, not the 8-9.5-win player of his prime, if you want to put a cherry on it.

Now we can go back to ignoring each other

2999

Clem and Morbs fighting reminds me of my parent's divorce.

don't worry they'll get back together when the angels win the pennant

anyway yay

Beltre has exactly one 200 hit season (in 2004 he finished with exactly 200 hits). Without checking, I'm assuming that's the fewest 200 hit seasons for any player with 3000 hits.

nope! A few have 0, or 1.

Clem and Morbs fighting reminds me of my parent's divorce.

Which of them was stuck in 1990?

zero 200-hit seasons: Anson, Rickey H, Murray, Winfield, Yaz

One: Beltre, Biggio, Collins, Kaline, Mays, Palmeiro, Yount

Most of them better hitters than Pete Rose, of course.

(pulled that straight from today's NY Times column by Tyler Kepner)

Wow, so more than a third of the 3000 hit club had zero or one seasons with 200 hits. Am I the only one who's sort of shocked by this?

There are a lot of patient hitters there (but not too patient, too many walks = not enough hits) but not really a comp for Beltre.

i'm surprised too, i guess, but not shocked. getting to 3000 is just a function of longevity. the player with the 50th most hits last year was nick markakis, with 161. if a player had 161 hits each season of their career, it would take them about 18-19 years to reach 3000. if a player has 200 hits a year, it would take them 15 years, which is faster, but...not really that much faster. so it just seems to be a matter of staying healthy and having a long career.

still boggling at the fact that nick markakis has 1,995 career hits

so many players this year chasing major milestones, really looking forward to Markakis' 2000th hit, i hope he gets it at home.

the growth of the 3000 Club in the last 40 years is just bananas

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-everyone-should-love-adrian-beltre/

The "Best of Adrian" clip at the bottom is great.

NoTime: Pujols and Cabrera will get to 3,000 with only one 200-hit season each.

(Altuve, on the other hand, riding the Gwynn-Boggs-Ichiro Express.)

future HOFer jose altuve is an obvious pick but don't rule out Less Sexy Starlin

Bill James predictor tool has Cano with 59% chance of making it to 3000.

I think Cano will make it. There are a lot of middle infielders like Castro who look like decent bets mid-career--they start young and pile up a lot of hits by the time they're 30--but they're just not good enough to play regularly into their late 30s. My guess is Castro's one of those guys, Elvis Andrus too. Altuve's obviously qualitatively different.

castro has no chance, he's not good enough to play for as long as he'd have to

Robbie Alomar looked to be a guy to maybe go way over 3000 hits as he had been so dependable and then he was not anymore.

I got to give Castro a bit of props for coming out of the garbage bin to even be good again, he looked maybe washed up a couple years ago.

Robbie Alomar looked to be a guy to maybe go way over 3000 hits as he had been so dependable and then he was not anymore.

― earlnash, Monday, July 31, 2017 11:39 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Alomar's fall was rather sharp: 193 hits at age 33, then 157, then 133, then 45.

Cano's contract basically guarantees that he'll get enough PT to Biggio his way to 3000 hits.

538 had a 3,000-hit roundup the other day:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-will-join-the-3000-hit-club-after-adrian-beltre/

Trout, Machado, and Harper all 200-300 hits ahead of the average 3,000-hit guy.

Alomar's drop-off still mystifies me. I had a theory at the time that I've since discarded. Coming off his near-MVP season in 2001, he was just shy of 2,400 hits and not yet 34. I thought at the time he was headed for the Top 10, maybe even 3,500 hits.

(xpost)

big-gi-o

/ bij-ˈjē-ō/

transitive verb

1. to hang around unproductively for the sake of specious awards and milestones

“Martin Scorsese finally biggioed his first Academy Award for The Departed.”

Finally you and Morbs can agree on something. Glad I could help (the assist goes to Biggio for inspiring this feel good moment by, uh, biggioing the last three years of his career).

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/08/report-umpire-joe-west-suspended-three-games-for-bashing-adrian-beltre-publicly/

In keeping with the general feeling that umpires are a touch sensitive these days.

joe west is a confrontational dick, but that is lame

i mean in the seven weeks since that happened, MLB had him ump home plate in the all-star game

yeah, that seems silly. didn't west say they were on good terms, and beltre said he thought it was a joke?

nah fuck joe west

In best promotion ever, #Rangers giving away miniature on-deck circles to honor Adrian Beltre: https://t.co/9pzL8ZfRI9

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) August 11, 2017

hahaha

love it

out at least four weeks ;_;

Awful! He's having a partial season that ranks with all his other second-greatest seasons.

Adrian Beltre got to meet Beltre the Giraffe at the @FortWorthZoo today. https://t.co/Isr4ahfM88 pic.twitter.com/Bk3lwq3VaQ

— Cut4 (@Cut4) March 30, 2018

Adrian Beltre Becomes the Latin American Hit King https://t.co/I4ZNwtnCUe

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) April 5, 2018

That is just amazing. This guy has blossomed into an All-Timer.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adrian-beltre-is-now-the-international-hit-king/

I never get tired of these two guys:

http://www.mlb.com/cut4/felix-hernandez-laughed-at-adrian-beltre-after-striking-him-out/c-289319882

(Extra credit to Beltre--as the announcers point out, he knows when not to joke around.)

I hope Ade comes back for a final season. He’s been injured and his statline is a touch below recent years but still, he has been playing out of his mind the past couple weeks and his bWAR is a very nice 2.3 (in approx 2/3 of a season.)

Hope so too. Otherwise (and it makes no actual difference in his stature), the two partial seasons will end up costing him 500 HR and 100 WAR.

In honor of Adrián Beltré retiring here’s a thread of all of his best, goofiest and most wonderful moments.

The dude was such a vehicle of baseball joy and we’ll all miss his antics.

— Cespedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) November 20, 2018

not complete without:
http://i.imgur.com/vv7x8lf.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtR9eU2U8AA8ck-.jpg:small

@GrantBrisbee Hello Grant, long time reader here. I just wanted to share this very important video with you where Adrian Beltre was shopping at JC Penny with his family and randomly appeared in a commercial where the person had no idea who he was. https://t.co/nkmxaMNHig

— Mark Sandritter (@MarkSandritter) January 24, 2019

Damn, he didn't even get a chryon