Ichiro/Sisler Watch!

Of course if Ichiro hit .486 the rest of the way he'd finish above .400, that'd get lots more ink than beating Sisler. He is having the best of his four US seasons, certainly, but if the M's weren't done he might undeservedly get the MVP too. (Betcha Mark Loretta doesn't crack the top 5 in the NL MVP even if the Pads make the playoffs and he wins the batting title.)

why? for pitch count purposes? don't these both equal getting on base 310 times?

(I was being facetious! xpost)

Suzuki, batting .366 and with a major league-leading 189 hits, lay face down in the batter's box for several minutes before coming to his feet and walking to the dugout. He was examined by the Royals' team physician and is not expected to play Thursday.

DIE JIMMY SERRANO DIE DIE

Wrong, JD ... Rickey's career SB success is well above break-even (~75%) with 1406 steals and 335 CS -- not as stellar as Tim Raines (808 / 146) but valuable. RH was caught 42 times when he stole the 130 in '82, but he was never again caught even TWENTY times in a season afterward (stole 93 in '88 and caught only 13).

and in cool points Ichiro ownz

just imagine if he hadn't hit .255 in april!

One John Pastier wrote on the SABR e-list:

"[Ichiro] is hot right now and has a good shot at the record, but is also one of the least run-productive of the 21 players to ever get (or be on pace for) 235 or more hits in a season. Almost 84% of his hits this year are singles, which is by far the highest proportion in this group.  His closest competition is himself in 2001, with 79%.  His walk rate isn't good either, but that's
almost a prerequisite for getting a very high number of hits...

"According to Baseball Prospectus, Ichiro's Equivalent average (.316) is currently 27th-best in the majors, and his runs above replacement (51.8) is 18th.  His Runs above Position (24.2) is 23rd, and Runs above Replacement at Position
(42.9) is 20th.  What does an all-time single-season hits record signify if the holder isn't one of the ten best hitters in the major leagues that year?"

that the record holder's approach at the plate is vastly different from the average, or at least the top 10 hitters?

big deal. it's a power/strikeout game now, and ichiro is not a power/strikeout hitter. shock.

i think it makes what he's doing even more impressive.

As a SABR listee pointed out, there may be a batting title winner with the most hits ever by a winner (Ichiro) and one with the least hits ever by a winner (Bonds).

TORONTO (AP) -- Ichiro Suzuki was a big hit at SkyDome.

Suzuki got three hits to finish with 56 in August, the most in a month by a major leaguer since 1936, and the Seattle Mariners rallied past the Toronto Blue Jays 7-5 Tuesday night for their season-high fifth straight victory.

The last player to get so many hits in a month was Cleveland's Roy Weatherly in July 1936.

``Of course I know him,'' Suzuki joked. ``Who is that?''

i'm with ichiro on that one.

he's now on pace for 264 hits...

"I don't feel like I'm in a zone. I'm going out and doing the same things I always do," Suzuki said. "I've kind of ran out of things to say."

A-Rod 2004 (w/ RISP)

BA: .210
OBP: .309
SLG: .363

Hmmmm..

he's gonna do it.

He's slumping!!

No Power, No Patience, but the Hits Keep Coming

By ALAN SCHWARZ

For someone hitting .251, Bret Boone gives Ichiro Suzuki an awfully hard time. Whenever Suzuki, the Mariners' lightning-quick leadoff man, scoots safely to first on a four-hopper to short, a flare to center or a 30-foot bunt for yet another three-hit game, Boone accosts him in the Seattle dugout.

"Are you gonna count those as hits?" Boone says. "Nobody else in the world can get hits like that!"

To which Suzuki calmly and confidently says, "On purpose."

As it turns out, Suzuki, who entered this weekend's series with the White Sox leading the major leagues with a .374 batting average, has left more than his contemporaries scratching their heads. He has left fans of statistics at a loss as well - specifically for ways to quantify how good a player he truly is.

On a pace to smash the record for hits in a season (George Sisler's 257 for the 1920 St. Louis Browns) and hitting a spectacular .400 since April, Suzuki lacks the two skills that beguile the numbers folks: power and patience. Meanwhile, his off-the-chart attributes are reflexively dismissed: hitting for average (which is generally overrated), speed (which is hard to measure) and defense (which is even harder).

Like the Yankees' Derek Jeter, whose all-around game is about as popular among stat types as a calculator with a low battery, Suzuki is a round peg in baseball's increasingly square world. As Athletics General Manager Billy Beane says, "He's a very difficult player to get a handle on."

Dodgers General Manager Paul DePodesta put it this way: "Ichiro creates anxiety when he's in the box and on the bases. He forces you to play differently on defense. And when a guy behind Ichiro hits a home run, who's to say that bad pitch wasn't caused because he was on base? You can't measure everything. Part of the beauty of this game is that it's not completely scientific."

Sure enough, many of Suzuki's numbers are often served with salt. He is on a pace to get 264 hits, but because he walks so infrequently, he is also on a pace for 706 at-bats, another record. With so few walks and a vast majority of his hits being singles, his O.P.S. (on-base plus slugging percentage) is .884, placing him 41st in the majors and 7th among baseball's generally more power-oriented right fielders. His 32 stolen bases are nice, but his being caught 10 times tends to even out their benefit. And although he's among the top defensive right fielders, making 2.33 plays a game and reaching 86.6 percent of balls hit into his area, you will not win many arguments with such esoteric fielding data.

(At least there's no Roger Maris-like controversy over how Suzuki's season is 162 games long rather than Sisler's 154. Hits per game, anyone?)

When the numbers settle like flakes in a snow globe, Suzuki's appeal becomes more aesthetic than scientific. And thankfully, although baseball offense is moving more and more toward power and walks, the game does retain its soft spot for all-around players that the numbers often hide.

Henry Chadwick, the 19th century writer who espoused the use of statistics to evaluate players, invented categories like sacrifice hits and stolen bases to discourage home runs, which he considered narcissistic displays of brute force. (He also argued that running 360 feet was too tiring.)

New York Giants Manager John McGraw also railed against the Babe Ruth-catalyzed power boom of the 1920's, calling Ruth a bum who would hit into "a hundred double plays before the season is over."

And Ty Cobb, a prime focus of the slapper-versus-slugger debate, complained about the death of fundamental baseball in a 1952 personal letter. "The hit-and-run, stolen base, bunt and sacrifice bunt are deteriorating from unuse," Cobb wrote, "and they only hit for their amusement and pleasure for the home run."

Suzuki, a native of Japan, speaks of achieving balance in his game, of not neglecting the defense and base-running aspects of baseball that statistics have yet to appreciate. He says only one number concerns him: "Getting as many hits as you can during a year."

Not slugging or on-base percentage, the statistics that measure power (of which Suzuki has little) and patience (of which he has even less). By all accounts, it was the suggestion of Seattle's hitting coach, Paul Molitor, that he take more pitches and drive balls farther - essentially adapt himself to the modern game - that led Suzuki to struggle in April, when he batted .255. Only by shaking free of that approach did his amazing season start.

Suzuki immediately began rapping out hits, his skills once again asserting themselves as some of baseball's most well rounded, if not most appreciated.

"They idolize technique and skill in Japan more than Americans do," said the Dodgers' pitching coach, Jim Colborn, who coached and scouted there for eight years in the 1990's. "How you do something is paramount in Japan. Here, it's more about achieving the numbers. Power is the American way."

With the last two World Series champions relying on speedy singles-hitting leadoff men (Anaheim's David Eckstein and Florida's Juan Pierre), the science of baseball statistics must grudgingly accept that the game has other dimensions to conquer. And every time Suzuki gets one of his beloved hits - whether it travels 400 feet or 90, bounces one time or seven - he offers that pesky reminder.

Like a cat eating 264 canaries, Suzuki is forcing baseball to consider what the numbers, even the newest ones, do not say.

On purpose.

At what point does Ichiro's pursuit of .400 eclipse the Sisler mark? If he gets above .390?

.

I did the math on Ichiro nad indeed, it takes .520 to get him to .400. A 2-for-5 at this stage doesn't always raise his BA a point.

It isn't bad for a leadoff hitter on a terrible team.

that was the kicker

:-O

"Ichi's 3.13 GB/FB ratio is second in the majors.  Anyone bent on driving the ball into the ground knows that he won't be getting many doubles, and will get no triples or HRs that way...."

ie, It's an amazing skill... the question is if he'd help the team more than if he sacrificed the few-walks, 84% singles approach for a potentially higher OBP *and* SLG.

That's a problem with Seattle's offense this season -- their best hitter is a singles hitter, so he needs a lot of help to drive in or score runs. Ichiro's SLG isn't so bad ~.480, but that's a bit misleading since most of hit hits are singles. His isolated power is ~.110, which is actually quite awful.

So yeah, a team with a below average offense like Seattle would probably be better off if he were hitting .330/.420/.520 with ~50-60 XBH than the .370/.420/.480 or whatever he's hitting now.

doc, why would you think ichiro would be capable of batting even .275 if he started sitting back and trying to drive the ball? his entire strategy is to rely on his speed and ability to make contact, slap the ball to deep second or deep short and either beat the throw or hope it squeezes through. it might be an interesting experiment if it hadn't already been done - that schwarz article said molitor tried to get him to do just that at the beginning of the season, and it was a disaster.

David Eckstein and Juan Pierre, 2 players that are fairly similar offensively to Ichiro, have much worse ISOPWR: .054 and .087

I'm speculating on the consequences of Ichiro trying to drive the ball *some* of the time, as opposed to slapping it almost *all* the time. His ceiling in MLB seems to be 50 XBH a year.

i would be curious to see how well ichiro would adjust if he were moved down in the order to the second or third spot. in those cases, with other, slower players on base, the deep grounder that ichiro can beat out becomes a liability, not an asset. judging by ichiro's phenomenal bat control, i would be willing to bet that he would become much more of a line drive hitter...

Ichiro I think is pretty similar to Tony Gwynn or perhaps even Rod Carew, who also was good at getting infield hits (especially by bunting).

23 games * 4.4 ABs/game = 102 ABs

26/102 = .254 to tie the record, .265 to break it.

he's 0/8 for the weekend so far (you can't ignore his career numbers which long suggested that he was overdue for a fall back to reality). his 3 year splits show that September is by far his worst hitting month (.283, one of only 2 months that he averages less than .300). this really could go down to the wire. could you imagine if he got intentionally walked if it got close?

Here is SI's Ichiro countdown page, which is pretty cool.

"Their bats are probably not much different than the one George Sisler swung back in 1920, when he banged out a major-league-record 257 hits."

Except for, like, their center of gravity and the thickness of their handles and their weight, sure.

He's batting .200 in the past 7 days.

With a projected 84 at bats remaining in the season, he needs 25 hits to tie the record (.300), 26 to break it (.310).

maybe i should be posting this in the barry vs. ichiro thread...

oh and to paraphrase gygax up yonder, Raul Ibanez is 6 for 6, wtf

ten games to go...

Incredible.

he's 30 - i can't help but wonder how long he'll be keeping this up.

what's most interesting to me at the moment is that tippet implies ichiro's speed on the basepaths more than makes up for his many infield singles presumably failing to advance runners the traditional 2 bases. i don't know about that, but it would seem that basic run metrics like EQR, VORP, or RC might end up with a pretty accurate estimation of ichiro's worth after all. (he's also said to create a further unmeasured ~5 runs due to his DP/GB rate, so they may indeed undershoot his worth)

here's where he places among fellow ALers:

EQR 2nd
EQA 10th
VORP 4th
RC 1st
RC/27 7th

reading over this thread i saw my BP anti-ichiro question, and while i can't answer it this http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3518 is a free roundtable discussion they posted today

joe sheehan prepares to set the tone but is quickly taken to task by mariners fan zumsteg and left pleading "gut feeling". we only get one "it's just cuz he hustles and ppl are suckers for that" comment and it might be sarcastic, tho i doubt it. there is a hilarious reply to sheehan's drivel here http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=1939

(sheehan does have a couple seeds for thought desperately trying to bud amidst all the bullshit but the unchecked acrimoniousness of that retort made me lol) (although that was probably because i inititally thought it was derek zumsteg himself, taking the gloves off after some kind of split!)

i was mistaken above, ichiro's in a tie for 2nd in AL VORP.

And I am curious, like Sheehan, to see if he can hit .420+ in several different months next year.

Jul 31: Ichiro belted a pair of home runs in the Mariners' 3-2 win over the Cleveland Indians Saturday, breaking Paul Waner's 75-year-old record for most hits in his first five major league seasons. He now has 1,059 career hits with 49 games still left on the schedule.

It took Waner 747 games to amass 1,057 hits from 1926-30. Ichiro has played in 737 big league contests to date.

based on his career averages, it seems like he should have broken that record about a month ago. what's going on this year?

Also, after last year, ANYTHING'S gonna be a disappointment!

Outlier anyone? Check today's Hardball Times for a great article on Ichiro's regression.

He has definitely lost a step or two speedwise. He flubbed a flyball yesterday, not too different from the one that got away last week.

His range on the flub (scored a single) looked feeble, like there was no doubt that a ball in semi-shallow right was a potential out (the A's fans were particularly shocked at the miscue). Ichiro got a bad jump, and the play was bookended by a particularly ungraceful finish (he inadvertantly kicked the ball into the infield after the flub).

Except he hasn't done it -- his SLG is down from last year, and is right in line with his career average. Sacrificing loads of BA and OBP in order to hit the ball in air more and drive a few more balls out of the park isn't making him more of a productive player, judging by the correlations between G/FB ratios and his BA.

Look, I don't think he's as good as he was last year. But neither is he ready for the scrap heap, either as a player or in the court of baseball-nerd public opinion. A lot of OMG SO AWESOME players were allowed to slip off after a stat-spike season and it was treated like "well that was predictable." Seems like people just want to go "haha told you he wasn't any good." I think he's also suffered from having one of the crappiest lineups in baseball behind him; what's the point of getting another 262 hits if there's no one to knock you in?

Who's called him 'substandard'? That'd be silly. Overhyped without a doubt.

He's one of those exciting, stylish players who's fun to watch (who the hell knows how he makes contact with some of those swings) but just... is... not... GREAT. (unless he hits .360)

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=430838

Doesn't change the fact that he's #1.

Okay so someone explain to me again why Ichiro wasn't always in CF?

1) Mike Cameron
2) He was a big baby about moving from RF

Heh well it's clearly not cuz he can't play the position.

it seems like he's always watching out about being hurt. it limits his range.

Uh his Zone Rating is really really good (.916) and he's made 50 plays OUTSIDE of his zone according to Hardball Times.

Back in the day he was very awed by Mike Cameron's defensive plays, I remember him praising MC very highly. I think he said at one point that he was the best player he ever played with (take that A-Rod!)

He never played with A-Rod though?

a-rod = adrian beltrod.

I didn't get to watch much of the game the other day, but I have to say, what I saw was awesome. You know, the one where Seattle was playing. Against some team. TBH I completely forget now. Anyway, Ichiro's up, hit a single grounder to the left (and basically STOPS the bat mid-swing when he realizes it's an off-speed pitch, too), 3rd baseman makes a spectacular diving play + throw and still doesn't beat Ichiro because the dude is amazing.

Then Ichiro steals second. Then Ichiro steals third. Then some dude hits a grounder to third, 3rd baseman makes a nice catch, looks at home and realizes he has NO chance of catching Ichiro, and trows to first for the out which he gets.

It's been a while since I've watched much baseball but I REALLY like watching Seattle. If I didn't hate their cap so much I would buy one! (I think I used to have one in the mid 90s, actually, but that was the mid 90s when navy and green were ok together, amirite?)

i won't buy another mariners cap until they do away with the teal. fuck that color.

alex, with his speed i think his range could be even wider. (but my thinking is more based on watching him than any statistical analysis)

wow this thread kinda makes me hate all of you, now i see why all the cool ppl left for I luv football

Do you like teal a lot.

THIRD IN BLORP!~!!!! PONDER THAT U SECRET-KOREAN ICHIRO HATERS

(NICK SWISHER THINKS U CAN SUCK A DICK BTW, NO HOMO)

HI DERE MORAN

NE MORE TRADE OFFERS LOL?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4329684

Haha I like that Ichiro is coyly bitching about the team dress code while talking up the prez.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2503/3724404004_792e3eb603_b.jpg

Ichiro is crushing hard in that picture.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/ichiro-surprises-keeper-ichimeter-special-thank-presents-232543149--mlb.html

One hit away from 4000!

bbr: ichiro's WAR in '04 was 9.2, which led the league (3rd in mlb behind bonds and beltre)

Third post on this thread:

Raul Ibanez is 5 for 5.
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, August 17, 2004 9:32 PM (9 years ago)

Know who else had 4000 hits? Jigger Statz.

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/ddd7d6e6

http://deadspin.com/last-night-on-fox-sports-1-the-worst-sports-panel-disc-1182957398

Haha good grief

was sure before i clicked that Pete Rose wd've been invited

wow what a meas

Read a couple of things yesterday that both concluded he'd be at or very close to 4,000 if he'd started in Seattle at age 21. A big factor is that all those years in Japan, he was playing a 136-game schedule.

I think that's a pretty safe conclusion.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/fbf819e3fcbdc2b7fb90ab961765ae6d/tumblr_mrwouedzSp1qm9rypo1_1280.jpg

Something something something beard. Someone help me out, I'm feeling less than 100 today.

"Suzuki, Orix Right Fielder"

Per the time I sat in RF in Seattle, Ichiro has/had an amazing lower body.

Between the Lines, Japanese Star Is Known as a First-Class Spanish Trash Talker

Veteran first baseman Carlos Pena remembered one of his frequent encounters with Ichiro. He was defending first for the Tampa Bay Rays, and Ichiro had just arrived on one of his patented infield hits. Ichiro peered over at Pena and asked, "Que coño tu mira?," or, "What the hell are you looking at?" Pena clamped his lips together to prevent the laughter from bursting through.

ichiro hit his first double of the season (in 247 plate appearances) for his 2900th MLB hit

career ops+ of 109 now

as Mantle said of Pete Rose, if i hit like Ichiro -- nah

he and ty cobb now have 4,191 pro* hits

Pitched an inning today. Better line than Buehrle.

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ichiro-pitching.png

how can you post something from that article and not post this

http://giant.gfycat.com/GreatShyCranefly.gif

a fair point.

also

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/7/1/0/153227710/100415_mia_ichiro_strike2_med_poelcx2q.gif

@JoeFrisaro
The #Marlins are signing Ichiro Suzuki today for the 2016 season.

ichiro looks so delighted in that gif

Yusei Kikuchi clearly influenced by Ichiro's history with Mariners.

“Mr. Ichiro is a person in the sky, a legend. I don’t know if he really exists. I want to meet and talk with him first. When I do have the opportunity to step on the field with him, it will be a great moment.”

— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) January 3, 2019

https://www.instagram.com/p/B2XyM3cgLHz/

https://i.postimg.cc/tTS0QP9P/3-C5040-C8-CE45-4-E6-F-A746-B21-BE0-DABB27.jpg

50-year-old Ichiro’s pitching line tonight against a High School girls all-star team

9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 116 P

He topped out at 86 mph on the mound and recorded two hits at the plate pic.twitter.com/AA9AJCZB0Z

— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) November 21, 2023

https://theathletic.com/5080876/2023/11/24/ichiro-suzuki-baseball-pitching/

He could still do it

.@JRODshow44 had the ultimate throwing partner on day one: Ichiro pic.twitter.com/00SC2r7b1T

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) February 15, 2024