2018 awards thread

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some interesting races this year imo

  • there are four american leaguers who would seemingly be running away with the NL MVP
  • can degrom win the NL Cy with a terrible record?
  • how will voters handle ohtani as an AL rookie?
  • gabe kapler, manager of the year??

mookieproof, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 16:06 (one year ago) link

I think Ohtani might win regardless of whatever his key position may be.

I don’t know that vote splitting will come into play with the AL MVP as much as people think, Betts has the narrative over Martinez and then there’s his plus defense. Ramirez is great but a lot depends on his finish vs the other two. If Trout comes back and plays like he did the rest of the season I still think he might finish 2nd.

Scherzer would be considered the favorite but he’s also been merely great lately as opposed to “unbelievable.” DeGrom could steal it if he continues to pitch this way even without the wins. But that disparity is something that might cause him to lose out.

Chris Sale seems to be the fave in the AL yeah? Kluber is awesome but still I think he’s behind Sale and Verlander.

NL MVP....man idk I think it might be Baez.

omar little, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 16:24 (one year ago) link

Career ERA in day games, since 1913:

1. Jacob deGrom, 1.99
2. Mellie Wolfgang, 2.15
3. Joe Wood, 2.22
4. Eddie Cicotte, 2.22
5. Tom Hughes, 2.24
6. Bill James, 2.27
7. Babe Ruth, 2.28

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 8, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 8 August 2018 16:25 (one year ago) link

Still two months, so lots could change, but as it stands today, there's no way deGrom would win the Cy Young. WAR has it basically a toss-up: tied at 6.5 on Baseball Reference, 5.4-5.1 for deGrom on Fangraphs. He'd have to have a sizable lead there, I would think, to counter Scherzer's advantage in K, IP, and, yes, wins (wide enough that it will figure in).

clemenza, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 16:27 (one year ago) link

Bill James mowin' em down!

timellison, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 17:12 (one year ago) link

Dang! Talk about single seasons of greatness.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jamesbi02.shtml

timellison, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 17:20 (one year ago) link

Martinez and Betts will split votes, but so will Lindor and Ramirez. They could leave room for Trout to win if he finishes strong, but OTOH voter fatigue might cost him. My gut tells me that Betts wins in no small part thanks to whatever gaudy win total the Red Sox finish the season with.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 17:27 (one year ago) link

Betts likely going to get the “it’s his time” vote in addition to actually being a totally deserving candidate. Anyway there are no real Morneaus in this bunch.

omar little, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 17:45 (one year ago) link

degrom may also benefit from scherzer fatigue

scherzer will have him on wins and strikeouts and, probably most importantly, innings, but degrom (at this point) has the better era/fip/xfip -- largely because he's given up half as many homers, which seems important

mookieproof, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 18:23 (one year ago) link

Anyway there are no real Morneaus in this bunch.

To me, that's a key point. Even though arguments about the deserving winner each year will never go away, I think you're getting close to the point where you can't win anymore if you haven't had an MVP/Cy-caliber year sabermetrically. Except for Porcello and Dickey, I don't think there's been a winner in either category with a WAR under 6.0 since Morneau/Howard won.

clemenza, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 18:53 (one year ago) link

Jacob deGrom is done after six shutout innings. His final line:

6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 100 pitches.

With the Mets leading, 5-0, deGrom is in line to win his first game since June 18. He lowered his career ERA in day games to 1.94, and his season mark to a league-best 1.77.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 8, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 8 August 2018 19:19 (one year ago) link

soto seems to be on a clear path to winning NL ROY, but I'm not sure about AL. if ohtani is able to contribute pitching-wise down the stretch it's probably his to lose, and torres and andujar could end up splitting the rest of the votes anyway

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 8 August 2018 19:27 (one year ago) link

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/handicapping-the-award-races-mvp/

na (NA), Thursday, 9 August 2018 15:35 (one year ago) link

Killing time before an afternoon at the dentist...

I like to look through game logs when you get a season as bizarre as deGrom's. I'm using plain-old unadjusted ERA here as a convenient shortcut.

Degrom

Cheap wins (non-quality-start wins) – one (he pitched very well but only 5.1 IP)
Tough losses (quality-start losses) – six (three on the cusp where he gave up 3 ER)
Wins (6) – 0.90
Losses (7) – 2.88
No-decisions (10) – 1.44

Scherzer

Cheap wins – two
Tough losses – three
Wins (15) – 2.18
Losses (5) – 2.90
No-decisions (4) – 1.98

So, to state the obvious…Scherzer’s W-L record is pretty representative of the way he’s pitched--if anything, it could be a little better, having pitched well in his losses and very well in his no-decisions.

deGrom has been woefully shortchanged. He’s been much better than Scherzer in his wins (many fewer games...which doesn't mean anything, that's just a function of all his no-decisions that should have been wins), about the same as Scherzer in his losses, and--the thing that’s killing him--brilliant in his no-decisions. If you look at all his no-decisions game-by-game, he should have won six of them easily (51 IP, four runs!).

clemenza, Thursday, 9 August 2018 15:42 (one year ago) link

#NLCyYoung in simplest form:
If Jacob deGrom pitched a CG allowing 11 runs, he and Max Scherzer would be even.

— Brian Kenny (@MrBrianKenny) August 8, 2018

mookieproof, Thursday, 9 August 2018 21:52 (one year ago) link

I like the Fangraphs piece above, but I can't see pegging Martinez at 23%. His MVP chances would seem to rest almost completely on a Triple Crown--if he did it, he'd probably be close to a sure thing, and if he doesn't, he probably has close to zero chance as a DH, especially with so many other excellent candidates. So if Dan Szymborski puts him at 6% for a Triple Crown, I'd say his MVP chances shouldn't be much higher--maybe 7 or 8%. In Ortiz's farewell season, where he had a whole bunch of narrative working for him in the MVP vote, he finished sixth.

clemenza, Friday, 10 August 2018 02:01 (one year ago) link

Don't think I've even mentioned Lindor yet (others have). I know Ramirez has a slight edge in WAR on his own team, but a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop who might end up with 40 HR/100 XBH, that'd be a sure thing most years.

clemenza, Friday, 10 August 2018 13:26 (one year ago) link

as Jeff Sullivan pointed out today, the AL player who may put his team into the postseason is Matt Chapman.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 10 August 2018 20:38 (one year ago) link

Be forewarned: I'm going to advocate here for a few votes based primarily on an intangible.

I wouldn't mind seeing Nick Markakis graze the Top 10. I've got to believe that Freeman and Markakis have been a good steadying influence on Albies and Acuna. Freeman will make out fine and probably finish 5th or so. Markakis may end up with 5.0 WAR, so it's not like he'd be completely undeserving of a 10th-place finish based on performance alone. If he got a few extra points because of Atlanta's surprise success and a perception that Markakis has helped the younger guys, I'd be okay with that. Maybe William C can chime in.

clemenza, Tuesday, 14 August 2018 23:21 (one year ago) link

I've got to believe that Freeman and Markakis have been a good steadying influence on Albies and Acuna.

My sense is that this has been the case, Ozzie especially. Markakis finishing top-10 would be totally cool by me, and I think he'll get bumped up a spot or two on a lot of ballots with "I didn't think he had THAT in him" sentiment.

a shomin-geki poster with some horror elements (WilliamC), Wednesday, 15 August 2018 00:05 (one year ago) link

if markakis were a national, joe simpson would be muttering darkly about PEDs

(i have no issues with him grazing the top 10 in the NL even without the intangibles -- he's having a great season. he'd be nowhere near it in the AL, however, which is weird)

mookieproof, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 01:10 (one year ago) link

The NL top 4 in bWAR are all pitchers: Scherzer, deGrom, Nola and Kyle Freeland of the Rockies.

Markakis is 10th among position players.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 15 August 2018 01:24 (one year ago) link

j. ramirez with another huge game tonight

mookieproof, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 01:43 (one year ago) link

soto seems to be on a clear path to winning NL ROY, but I'm not sure about AL.

I thought so too last week, but it might end up being pretty close after another big night from Acuna. If you look at the two of them side-by-side, their batting lines are almost interchangeable, with one significant exception: 30 extra walks for Soto. That's huge, and if the vote were today, there'd be no reason not to vote for Soto. But Acuna's still got six weeks, and he's closing fast.

clemenza, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 02:56 (one year ago) link

I highly doubt Ohtani isn't getting AL RoY.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 03:12 (one year ago) link

xpost

yeah, i guess it'll come down to who has the better stretch run. i do think, though, that soto's incredible selectivity (almost as many walks as strikeouts in a 19-year old season is crazy) suggests to me that he's better positioned to continue doing very well. acuna is a wonderful player in his own right but he has a much more typical swing and miss kind of approach, which i would guess makes him more susceptible to slumps.

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 03:21 (one year ago) link

it'll take a lot for a pitcher to win MVP this year even with the dearth of dominant candidates. it kinda looks like Baez vs Carpenter right now in terms of batters, with Scherzer mixing it up in there. obv Carpenter has the current momentum, Baez has cooled a bit and can't compete lately in terms of production. Scherzer would probably have to win 20 games to be the favorite, plus the Nationals would have to actually make the playoffs. Plus the other two would have to completely play themselves out of the running.

omar little, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 05:59 (one year ago) link

Trout is probably out thanks to his injuries, they've been minor but just enough to get Betts, Ramirez, and maybe even Martinez ahead of him at this point.

omar little, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 06:00 (one year ago) link

If the Red Sox get to 112+ wins I’m fairly certain Betts wins MVP.

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 15 August 2018 06:34 (one year ago) link

I'd hate to see Sale lose the Cy Young to injury time. I think he's in the clear, but Kluber and Verlander are still hanging around--strong finishes by them and extended time for Sale could see him come up short.

clemenza, Sunday, 19 August 2018 12:39 (one year ago) link

Bauer and Snell, too...maybe Sale is insulated by all the others; either Sale gets your vote or one of the other guys gets it.

clemenza, Sunday, 19 August 2018 14:05 (one year ago) link

Bauer is done for the year and the Rays seem determined to keep Snell’s innings limited ROS. Don’t see either being a significant factor.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 19 August 2018 14:20 (one year ago) link

Shows how closely I keep up--didn't realize Bauer was out.

clemenza, Sunday, 19 August 2018 14:21 (one year ago) link

you weren't the only one confused by bauer's status

https://deadspin.com/mlb-network-falls-for-joke-report-that-trevor-bauer-is-1828439637

mookieproof, Sunday, 19 August 2018 16:11 (one year ago) link

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

omar little, Sunday, 19 August 2018 19:09 (one year ago) link

If Kluber ends up winning #3, his HOF case--interesting already--will become really interesting. I used to think Mike Scott wasn't a bad precedent for Kluber, but Kluber's way past him now (and also has a two-year jump on Scott).

clemenza, Sunday, 19 August 2018 20:17 (one year ago) link

Klubot made me look up another 2x Cy winner in Bret Saberhagen, who wasn’t merely good but he was phenomenally great. And he was probably the third best pitcher in MLB during the peak era of Gooden and BoSox Clemens. He put up around 40 bWAR thru his age 27 season and then injuries took him off the HOF track. Without injuries he’s a first-ballot guy.

omar little, Sunday, 19 August 2018 20:39 (one year ago) link

Jacob deGrom is the fourth pitcher in National League history to strike out 200+ batters and post a sub-2.00 ERA through 25 starts. The others:

Sandy Koufax (1966)
Pedro Martinez (1997)
Clayton Kershaw (2014)

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 21, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 21 August 2018 19:37 (one year ago) link

i know ERA is not the most reliable stat, but that's good company

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 21 August 2018 19:38 (one year ago) link

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

― omar little, Sunday, August 19, 2018 3:09 PM (two days ago)

degrom gets my vote now I think. and to me sale is still the favorite for the AL.

k3vin k., Tuesday, 21 August 2018 19:58 (one year ago) link

HOF chatter started with kershaw a few years ago. he's a shoo-in

k3vin k., Tuesday, 21 August 2018 19:58 (one year ago) link

by CK he meant kluber

mookieproof, Tuesday, 21 August 2018 20:04 (one year ago) link

ah right

k3vin k., Tuesday, 21 August 2018 20:55 (one year ago) link

All three NL Cy contenders start today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/degrom-scherzer-nola-vie-for-cy-young/c-291491520

clemenza, Thursday, 23 August 2018 16:49 (one year ago) link

edge to nola

mookieproof, Thursday, 23 August 2018 19:32 (one year ago) link

Definitely helped himself today--sounded like a great game, with some unexpected wildness from Scherzer.

clemenza, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:36 (one year ago) link

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 August 2018 11:31 (one year ago) link

also Goldschmidt leading NL batters in bWAR

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 August 2018 11:45 (one year ago) link

that's a solid turnaround from his "slow start" (which was really only an extremely shitty May): his slash this year is .297/.402/.555, last season's was .297/.404./.563.

omar little, Friday, 24 August 2018 16:01 (one year ago) link

I like the idea (Posnanski's?) of combining both WARs. Then it gets really close: Nola and deGrom tied at 14.4, Scherzer at 14.0 (extra close if you then credit Scherzer with a slight "old-school" edge).

clemenza, Friday, 24 August 2018 20:51 (one year ago) link

The NL Cy is close enough that it comes down the last five or six starts. Predicting a winner now is pointless.

clemenza, Friday, 24 August 2018 20:52 (one year ago) link

But we’re going to do it anyways and I choose Scherzer!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 25 August 2018 23:32 (one year ago) link

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, August 24, 2018 7:31 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

very bizarre

k3vin k., Sunday, 26 August 2018 03:52 (one year ago) link

Jeff: I know the basic difference of ERA vs FIP for Pitcher WAR between bbref and Fangraphs, but my question is why at the top of the leaderboards is bWAR higher than fWAR I.e. Nola 8.7 vs 5.4, Scherzer etc.

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: fWAR basically regresses every pitcher to a standard ball-in-play baseline. bWAR is unregressed in that way, making it easier to run a high number

J0rdan S., Sunday, 26 August 2018 06:04 (one year ago) link

The best thing I ever read on the difference was something Posnanski wrote comparing Pedro's 1999 and 2000 seasons. Fangraphs preferred one, Baseball Reference the other, and it basically came down to the difference between what should have happened and what did happen. And he argued both sides in a way that made perfect sense.

clemenza, Sunday, 26 August 2018 14:05 (one year ago) link

Kluber koughed up five runs vs KC yesterday. Getting very interesting there...i guess it depends on Sale’s return but Blake Snell(!) is looking like a competitor too.

omar little, Sunday, 26 August 2018 19:42 (one year ago) link

Repeat of last week: Scherzer-Nola, with deGrom against the Cubs. Very reminiscent of Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw in 2015.

clemenza, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 00:01 (one year ago) link

Nola winning this matchup thus far. DeGrom in a nice duel with Hamels.

omar little, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 00:55 (one year ago) link

it might be reminiscent of 3 years ago if i could remember what happened then

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 02:34 (one year ago) link

speaking of past awards controversies, it'll be interesting to see what happens with the AL MVP if JD Martinez wins the triple crown (he's currently leading in BA (.337, betts at .336) and RBIs (110), and a close second to Khris Davis (38 to 39). but by fWAR he's 7th in the AL, far behind betts, ramirez, and trout (by bWAR he's 8th)

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 02:39 (one year ago) link

Betts is clearly the best player on that team. i think there's been enough erosion in Dinosaurland to make Martinez doubtful.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 02:49 (one year ago) link

deGrom 8 IP, 1 ER in a tie game

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 02:54 (one year ago) link

he's allowed 11 ER in 11 no-decisions this season, for an ERA of 1.41 (along w/90 K in 70.1 IP, WHIP around 0.95...etc)

omar little, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 03:17 (one year ago) link

Has a Cy Young winner ever finished with a losing record?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 03:51 (one year ago) link

Closest I can come up with is King Felix @ 13-12 in 2010?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 03:54 (one year ago) link

Eric Gagné

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 03:55 (one year ago) link

Ooh, that's one to keep in the back pocket.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 04:08 (one year ago) link

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 15:51 (one year ago) link

and i'm not sure he's even the best rookie cardinal outfielder (tyler o'neill is the broiest bro of broberg, bro, but he's also a weightlifter bro)

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 15:56 (one year ago) link

have Bader's golden locks made him a matinee idol?

Paul DeJong much foxier imho

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:00 (one year ago) link

Tyler O'Neill plays the Mozart

https://www.instagram.com/p/bAsnWWza3v/

I think this is less surprising in a *Canadian* weightlifter.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:06 (one year ago) link

i want bader's locks to go full-on colby rasmus. let them flow, and let the people see them flow!

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:07 (one year ago) link

ok, i just tried to do a rough simulation and it came out looking like jaso, so nevermind

https://i.imgur.com/QWtvjmG.jpg

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:14 (one year ago) link

also i don't know how hair works.

Karl Malone, Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:14 (one year ago) link

bader just looks like a stereotypical '80s movie preppie asshole, especially when he rocks this look

na (NA), Wednesday, 29 August 2018 16:20 (one year ago) link

no idea on AL Cy now. I had typed out a ranking will Snell at the top, but I'm not sure. His IP numbers are pretty low, and Kluber has been coming on very strong and might get to 20 wins (as could Snell, admittedly.) bWAR has Kluber 3rd in the AL behind Sale and Snell, and fWAR has him 5th behind Sale, Bauer, Cole, and Verlander (with Snell down in 9th behind Severino, Carrasco, and Clevinger.)

Sale would have to come back and really put up some numbers to move back up to the top i think, and while I'm sure he will perform well I'm not sure Boston will ride him very hard at the end with things getting increasingly locked up.

Verlander finished great last year, as did Kluber.

Gonna be a close one!!!

omar little, Thursday, 6 September 2018 16:48 (one year ago) link

Sale's clearly the best pitcher in the league, so too bad that he probably won't win now. I'd say that Kluber's the default choice, but except for IP, Snell's line is awesome.

clemenza, Friday, 7 September 2018 11:25 (one year ago) link

Sale currently still leads both versions of WAR among AL pitchers. A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon. Sale's at 146 and presumably will make a start or two this month.

You'll be able to spot the most sabermetric NL MVP voters because they will have some combo of Scherzer, deGrom and Nola at the top of their ballots. (Because those are almost certainly the best players in the league.)

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 7 September 2018 11:44 (one year ago) link

also, it's not clear Kluber has been the best pitcher on the Indians.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2018 15:09 (one year ago) link

yeah obv that rotation is an embarrassment of riches, Kluber's probably the best pitcher overall but as far as which one of those guys has been having the best 2018, it's another story.

Boston's method of handling Sale the rest of the way seems to indicate he may only get up to 5 IP per start for his final outing, which is pretty wise but i think it really does bring down his Cy chances, only bc of voter perception. i agree w/you on principle, assuming you believe he *should* win as it stands right now.

omar little, Saturday, 8 September 2018 16:20 (one year ago) link

wasn't it a pretty tight race before sale went out?

k3vin k., Saturday, 8 September 2018 17:01 (one year ago) link

A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon.

This technically already happened in 1984 with Rick Sutcliffe :) But seriously, I think you're right and it'll happen within the next five years or so.

Kluber has been great, but not as great as in his two Cy Young winning seasons, so it becomes mostly about those extra IP. Expect to see arguments like "if Sale pitched another 50 innings with a 7.50 ERA, then his ERA+ and WAR would equal Kluber's, so how could that possibly strengthen his case for the CY?"

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 8 September 2018 18:33 (one year ago) link

Weird to see so many pitchers already over 200 K and only one of them within a solid quality start of getting to 200 IP.

omar little, Saturday, 8 September 2018 19:41 (one year ago) link

NL Cy still a toss-up (combined WAR):

Scherzer - 16.3
deGrom - 15.8
Nola - 14.4

Scherzer's total is a little inflated because he's having a good year with the bat; in terms of just pitching, deGrom's a little ahead.

clemenza, Sunday, 9 September 2018 15:39 (one year ago) link

I mentioned this piece here or on another thread: Joe Posnanski looking at the two versions of WAR via Pedro Martinez's 1999 and 2000 seasons, and basically concluding that a combination of the two works best:

http://joeposnanski.com/at-war-with-pedro/

clemenza, Sunday, 9 September 2018 15:54 (one year ago) link

Mets bumped deGrom bcz it looked like there could be rain delays yesterday. Might rain all day today; it there's a postponement tonight, it might eventually cost him a start.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 10 September 2018 14:18 (one year ago) link

A WPA argument for Goldschmidt:

http://www.mlb.com/news/paul-goldschmidt-making-strong-run-at-mvp/c-293875428

(Haven't read it yet, so I don't know if they're including pitchers in there.)

clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2018 18:16 (one year ago) link

mets are indeed postponed

Being pushed back -- by rain -- from Sunday to Tuesday will probably cost Jacob deGrom a start. Possible solutions:

--an Oct. 1 makeup game, if the Mets end up with one of those
--deGrom starting on short rest for the season finale Sept. 30

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) September 10, 2018

mookieproof, Monday, 10 September 2018 19:10 (one year ago) link

feels like no one's talking about it but both betts and scherzer have an outside shot at an 11 rWAR season

k3vin k., Monday, 10 September 2018 20:32 (one year ago) link

just this minute i can't remember what rWAR is.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 10 September 2018 20:37 (one year ago) link

it's what baseball-reference WAR was called before everyone seemed to switch to bWAR

mookieproof, Monday, 10 September 2018 20:38 (one year ago) link

Being pushed back -- by rain -- from Sunday to Tuesday will probably cost Jacob deGrom a start. Possible solutions:

--an Oct. 1 makeup game, if the Mets end up with one of those
--deGrom starting on short rest for the season finale Sept. 30
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) September 10, 2018

I heard there's a double header on Wednesday now?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 10 September 2018 20:57 (one year ago) link

yes. it's a 4-game series, thru Thursday.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 10 September 2018 21:00 (one year ago) link

To bWAR or rWAR, that is the question.

clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2018 22:22 (one year ago) link

Kluber wound up not doing his part tonight. Verlander is pitching extremely well though.

omar little, Tuesday, 11 September 2018 00:33 (one year ago) link

Eye on the prize, Kluber will skip a start:

Francona said probables for Fri-Sun will be Tomlin, Clevinger, Bieber (in that order). It pushes Kluber back in order to align him better for playoffs.

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) September 11, 2018

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 11 September 2018 22:33 (one year ago) link

DeGrom's now sporting a losing record... could be interesting for the old-timer voter.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 12 September 2018 02:13 (one year ago) link

he struck out 9 and ERA swelled to 1.71

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 12 September 2018 06:30 (one year ago) link

Price is pitching so well now (never mind that it's the Jays)--I haven't looked past the obvious three or four best, but I wouldn't be surprised if he sneaks into the Top 10 for AL Cy.

clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2018 02:45 (one year ago) link

Jeff Sullivan wrote that DeGrom's W-L record is so absurd that it's come full circle and is helping his Cy Young case because it's getting so much attention. If he was 14-10 people would be talking about him less.

Scherzer is going to surpass the numbers he put up in his last two Cy Young winning years, maybe by a lot.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 13 September 2018 06:28 (one year ago) link

yeah, he's exceeded his highest bWAR of 6.9 (2015) by 2.

Nola took a hit last night: loss, 4 ER in 5 IP.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 13 September 2018 11:29 (one year ago) link

WILLLLLBONNNNN

“If (deGrom) goes 8-11 and wins the Cy Young, then all the people voting for the Cy Young should be dismissed” - @RealMikeWilbon

I’m triggered pic.twitter.com/gTNYOgyDzk

— Andrew Claudio (@Claudio_GSN) September 12, 2018

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 September 2018 14:44 (one year ago) link

NL MVP could come down to two Brewers outfielders, nice

frogbs, Thursday, 13 September 2018 14:46 (one year ago) link

holy pedro tho

After yesterday, Blake Snell is 5 strikeouts away from the 23rd 200/200 season in MLB history.

That's a season with 200+ Ks and an ERA+ over 200, a club that's already added Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom this year https://t.co/ZYqbRGQNG5 pic.twitter.com/f5ZYPJcZkK

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) September 13, 2018

mookieproof, Thursday, 13 September 2018 15:21 (one year ago) link

Scherzer was hammered tonight. Definitely deGrom's to lose now.

clemenza, Saturday, 15 September 2018 02:13 (one year ago) link

https://www.mlb.com/news/jd-martinez-should-be-american-league-mvp

After 148 games last season, the Red Sox had a record of 85-63 -- and led the Yankees by three games in the American League East. A year later, after the same number of games, the Red Sox enter Saturday's games with a record of 101-47, and stand 9 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees. There was one significant addition to the team between then and now: J.D. Martinez. He is not only the Most Valuable Player in the AL this season, he is the MVP of the entire sport.

mookie betts is a better hitter, in addition to being one of the best defenders players in the game at a premium defensive position

Karl Malone, Saturday, 15 September 2018 19:08 (one year ago) link

the triple crown is a hell of a drug

Karl Malone, Saturday, 15 September 2018 19:08 (one year ago) link

Sale's the best pitcher in the AL, no argument really, and probably the best period. But I can't see Snell not winning the Cy at this point (unless he blows up in one of his last two starts). The voting is more and more sabermetric every year, but I don't think they're quite at the point where they don't give the Cy to a guy who's 20-5 with a sub-2.00 ERA and pitching for a third-place team. You can't find anything in his line that's not excellent; his FIP is around 3.00, so I guess he's been a little lucky.

clemenza, Wednesday, 19 September 2018 11:25 (one year ago) link

Still think Cy Young voters care about wins? In an informal poll of MLB dot com BBWAA writers, deGrom took 30 of 33 first-place votes:https://t.co/zG0ylHMyBI

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 19, 2018

mookieproof, Wednesday, 19 September 2018 14:30 (one year ago) link

the last couple of weeks will be interesting for the AL MVP race if trout continues the utterly ridiculous tear he’s been on.

I also think ohtani has a really solid case for ROY

k3vin k., Wednesday, 19 September 2018 17:12 (one year ago) link

Only 0.1 bWAR separating Sale and Snell. If Snell was on a 200 IP pace then he'd be the frontrunner, but he isn't. The win total is nice, but you have to be lucky to win that many with so few IP, and his FIP partly reflects that. He might set a record for the fewest IP by a 20 game winner ... I think Jared Weaver set that record a few years ago?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 19 September 2018 20:26 (one year ago) link

ohtani should run away with ROY actually now that I look at the numbers

k3vin k., Wednesday, 19 September 2018 21:38 (one year ago) link

Yeah, when I look at Snell's IP, he really isn't that far ahead of Sale, even with the injury (169-150)--I was assuming he was at least 30 or 40 innings ahead. In those extra 19 innings, Snell has given up 13 extra hits, 25 extra walks, 6 extra HR, and struck out 22 fewer batters. Hard to make a case for him. He probably will rank as one of the great runner-up seasons.

clemenza, Thursday, 20 September 2018 11:35 (one year ago) link

Snell is 26th overall in run support, 4.55 runs per start; Sale is actually a little higher at 4.96. (No surprise: Happ is second at 5.83.) Two pitchers are getting worse support than DeGrom's 3.53 runs per start: Andrew Cashner (hardly matters with an ERA over 5.00) and Cole Hamels.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/runSupportPerStart/type/expanded-2/order/false

clemenza, Thursday, 20 September 2018 11:56 (one year ago) link

for AL MVP, yeah Trout has been insane of late. In Sept: .380/.508/.680. He's a very good few games away from passing Betts in bWAR. He's already passed him in fWAR.

Ramirez has really slowed down, and Lindor was never going to gain much traction w/Ramirez as his teammate. Betts in Sept is hitting .261/.407/.348. Martinez has similarly cooled off a bit.

i can see Snell being the pick for those who like wins, but he's also not really an exciting pick; Sale should get it. I thought maybe Verlander would sneak in, but I suspect he'll finish more like #3, ahead of Kluber and Cole and whoever else.

omar little, Thursday, 20 September 2018 16:09 (one year ago) link

the likely NL MVP hasn't even been mentioned in this thread yet, i don't think

Karl Malone, Thursday, 20 September 2018 16:34 (one year ago) link

(though craig edwards seems to think degrom has a chance: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jacob-degrom-and-the-mvp-precedent/)

Karl Malone, Thursday, 20 September 2018 16:35 (one year ago) link

Yelich iirc

i actually think NL Cy is shaping up to be the one w/the winner most easy to predict at this point.

omar little, Thursday, 20 September 2018 16:58 (one year ago) link

yeah, i have no doubt it'll be degrom

degrom
yelich
acuna

??? sale
betts
ohtani

Karl Malone, Thursday, 20 September 2018 17:02 (one year ago) link

i wonder about vote splitting in the AL w/Betts and Martinez, lots of people are still making noise about the latter despite Mookie having the trve kvlt MVP season. not sure it'd be enough for Trout to win but idk.

omar little, Thursday, 20 September 2018 17:07 (one year ago) link

yeah, seems like there's a decent possibility of that happening for sure. it all depends on the good ol' triple crown, and martinez is close on BA and HRs now

Karl Malone, Thursday, 20 September 2018 17:12 (one year ago) link

fWAR hates snell

he's only a couple innings shy, but sale does not currently qualify for the ERA title -- have any starters ever won without qualifying?

mookieproof, Thursday, 20 September 2018 17:14 (one year ago) link

despite degrom and his likelihood of winning in the NL, i still think that snell will be overlooked because he plays for the rays.

Karl Malone, Thursday, 20 September 2018 17:17 (one year ago) link

For NL ROY, I've gone from Soto being a lock, to Acuna overtaking him, and then Soto had a big couple of weeks and got back into it. When I look at them now, though, it still looks like Acuna.

clemenza, Thursday, 20 September 2018 18:24 (one year ago) link

deGrom dominated the Nats with one run over seven innings, got the win (!) and probably locked up the Cy.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 22 September 2018 07:02 (one year ago) link

deGrom's a lock now; in what was a real close race a few weeks ago, he may even come close to winning unanimously. I can't see MVP, though.

The Triple Crown won't happen (Davis hit two HR), so I think that locks up MVP for Betts, unless you think vote-splitting will make room for Trout. Ramirez and Lindor have faded a bit in the second half; by WAR, Chapman's case is almost 40% defense, and I just can't see that in a year where Betts is such a blueprint MVP both traditionally and sabermetrically.

clemenza, Saturday, 22 September 2018 13:30 (one year ago) link

Betts would seem to be a virtual lock now after the last couple games, with Trout maybe possibly moving into the #2 spot at this point with his recent run.

Snell has a shot at 22 wins and is maybe locking it down as well, though he's not very inspiring as a #1 vote.

omar little, Monday, 24 September 2018 17:08 (one year ago) link

Betts has an outside chance at 11 WAR on Baseball Reference. The only two players to reach that this century were Bonds (twice) and Pedro in 2000.

clemenza, Monday, 24 September 2018 19:59 (one year ago) link

And--forgot about this--he's only played 132 games. (Pro-rated, Trout's abbreviated season last year might have been in the same range.)

clemenza, Monday, 24 September 2018 20:01 (one year ago) link

though he's not very inspiring as a #1 vote

He's got one clear shortcoming, his IP, and his BB/9 are a little high. But have things changed so much (or are we so spoiled by the recent bar set by Kershaw) that a guy with a 1.90 ERA, 5.6 H/9, and 10.8 K/9--I won't even mention the W-L record, which would only trigger squawking--is a pedestrian choice?

clemenza, Monday, 24 September 2018 21:57 (one year ago) link

(Pro-rated, Trout's abbreviated season last year might have been in the same range.)

― clemenza, Monday, September 24, 2018 4:01 PM (two hours ago)

and his rookie year

k3vin k., Monday, 24 September 2018 22:02 (one year ago) link

His W-L record, incidentally, is not really a mirage.

In his 22 wins, he hasn't given up more than two runs, earned or otherwise.
In his 4 no-decisions, he gave up 0, 2, 0, and 1 run.
In his 5 losses, he pitched poorly in four of them and well (one run in 6.1 innings) in one of them.

Where he has been lucky is that he's picked up five wins where he didn't reach six innings. He pitched really well in these games--26 IP, 2 earned runs; he didn't give up an earned run in four out of the five games--but he left with a lead and the bullpen held it every time.

Overall:

21 wins: 1.09 ERA
5 losses: 7.71 ERA
4 no-decisions: 1.21 ERA

I'd say his W-L record reflects his game-level performance fairly accurately, with the caveat that he's never hit 8 IP even once this year. I don't know if that has more to do with him, where the game's at in general, or Tampa Bay's idiosyncratic strategies this year.

clemenza, Monday, 24 September 2018 22:13 (one year ago) link

21 wins, that should read.

Whenever I do something like this, I know the general reaction is "Why are you bothering?" W-L record has been so thoroughly discredited by now, I think the general assumption is that every guy who puts up gaudy numbers did so mostly through random luck--that the record is hiding all sorts of cheap wins and lucky no-decisions. With someone like J. Happ, no argument, when you look a little closer, the season is never that good. And at the other end of the spectrum, you get seasons like deGrom's, his being an extreme case. But when Kershaw went 21-3, or with Snell this year, the W-L record is right in line with how well they pitched. And the four times where Snell didn't pitch well, he got tagged for a loss all four times.

clemenza, Monday, 24 September 2018 22:29 (one year ago) link

Snell has been great but i'm a little ambivalent in a season where i suspect several AL pitchers have been more dominant overall. i'm not gonna sweat his win, tbh, i just think that IP total gives me a bit of pause.

omar little, Monday, 24 September 2018 22:35 (one year ago) link

who do you go with, then? sale and bauer have pitched even less (and sale is still unqualified)

mookieproof, Monday, 24 September 2018 23:02 (one year ago) link

Got even more curious about Snell's five under-six-IP wins: what was the score when he left?

May 29 vs. Oakland: left with a 3-1 lead after 5.2 IP, final score 4-3 (bullpen almost blew it in the 9th).

Aug. 10 vs. Toronto: left with a 4-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 7-0.

Aug. 16 vs. the Yankees: left with a 2-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 3-1.

Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore: left with a 7-2 lead after 5.1 IP, final score 14-2.

Sept. 18 vs. Texas: left with a 3-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 4.0.

The Toronto and NY games were soon after his DL stint, so they were obviously nursing him. Anyway, with three of those wins, he got a big assist from the bullpen--you would hardly expect to win all three games; the Toronto win, there was some help from the bullpen; the Baltimore win looked pretty safe when he left.

clemenza, Tuesday, 25 September 2018 00:21 (one year ago) link

Pretty thorough explanation of deGrom over Scherzer (not much of an issue anymore):

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/9/24/17890872/breaking-down-the-degrom-scherzer-cy-young-battle-new-york-mets-washington-nationals-mlb-awards

clemenza, Tuesday, 25 September 2018 14:23 (one year ago) link

i think 21 wins and a 1.90 ERA basically wraps it up for Snell, tho I think Verlander and Cole are both better options. Kluber's K-rates aren't as astronomical as they've been in the past, so that puts him pretty far behind the other dudes in my estimation.

nba jungboy (voodoo chili), Tuesday, 25 September 2018 15:04 (one year ago) link

yeah i'd vote for Verlander tbh

omar little, Tuesday, 25 September 2018 15:57 (one year ago) link

Sale getting pounded by AAA Baltimore pretty much seals the AL Cy for Snell.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 27 September 2018 02:46 (one year ago) link

Snell's adjusted ERA is actually better than deGrom's--he just misses the Top 20 all-time list.

clemenza, Thursday, 27 September 2018 04:15 (one year ago) link

There are many ways to illustrate Jacob deGrom's dominant & unusual season, but this one stands out to me: he limited opponents to a .521 OPS this season -- lower than the worst everyday hitter in MLB this season, Chris Davis (.539 OPS). https://t.co/AML9dagUr5

— James Wagner (@ByJamesWagner) September 27, 2018

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 September 2018 13:56 (one year ago) link

he prob should win MVP too, tbh

nba jungboy (voodoo chili), Thursday, 27 September 2018 15:04 (one year ago) link

Yelich in striking distance of the Triple Crown. Even if he gets I'm #teamdegrom for the NL MVP, but that would be one hell of an accomplishment.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 27 September 2018 15:21 (one year ago) link

Verlander as one other start, against the Orioles. A quality start, and it is the Orioles, should give him the Cy Young.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 27 September 2018 15:35 (one year ago) link

Yelich is a deserving candidate too, and his ridiculous hot streak in September as the Brewers surged will be fresh in voters' minds.

nba jungboy (voodoo chili), Thursday, 27 September 2018 17:33 (one year ago) link

yeah, definitely. he has stepped it up recently.

Karl Malone, Thursday, 27 September 2018 17:40 (one year ago) link

6 RBIs on Tuesday, 5 walks on Wednesday. He's been unreal.

frogbs, Thursday, 27 September 2018 18:07 (one year ago) link

Just noticed that Yelich already had a HOF'er on his Similarity Score list before the season; I'm sure he'll one or two more after this year.

Similar Batters through 25

Chet Lemon (965.5)
Johnny Damon (954.7)
Gary Matthews (950.1)
Carlos May (949.9)
Delmon Young (945.2)
Nick Markakis (943.7)
Lee Mazzilli (941.4)
Al Oliver (941.3)
Dave Winfield (941.2) *
Sixto Lezcano (940.3)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

(Never realized that Lee Mazzilli had a pretty decent run in the late '70s.)

clemenza, Thursday, 27 September 2018 21:13 (one year ago) link

"he'll add"

clemenza, Thursday, 27 September 2018 21:14 (one year ago) link

think about how legendary a Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton outfield would be

frogbs, Thursday, 27 September 2018 21:15 (one year ago) link

that is a weird list

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 September 2018 21:17 (one year ago) link

think I read that as a kid lol

k3vin k., Friday, 28 September 2018 00:35 (one year ago) link

NL MVP

Metrics- Christian Yelich
Old skool- Javier Baez

That's a cool list on that similar players for Yelich. All those guys had solid MLB careers. I'd say maybe only a couple of them did not make at least one All Star team.

earlnash, Friday, 28 September 2018 01:21 (one year ago) link

i accept that delmon young *had* a career, but solid is not how i'd describe it

mookieproof, Friday, 28 September 2018 02:01 (one year ago) link

I don't take Similarity Scores all that seriously, there are often a couple of oddball names on somebody's list, but it's a quick and fairly useful tool for getting an early line on somebody's HOF prospects. (Or at least was--it probably needs some revision.) If you're mid-career and there are three or four HOF'ers on your list, you're probably headed there yourself.

clemenza, Friday, 28 September 2018 02:17 (one year ago) link

At 25, Delmon Young had a career, after that eh... Did play 10 years and I think is now playing with Kenny Powers in Mexico.

Chet Lemon (965.5) - came up earlier this year in a thread. His WAR totals are pretty impressive on BB Reference.

Lee Mazzilli (941.4) - remembered seeing him go from first to home on a blooper against the Cubs in the good old bad days.

Al Oliver (941.3)- Kool nickname with Skoop. Heck of a hitter and probably a bit under-appreciated. Career .303 hitter over 9000 at bats is pretty impressive.

Sixto Lezcano (940.3) - this guy had a way crazy batting stance. It was open and he leaned back really far.

earlnash, Friday, 28 September 2018 03:11 (one year ago) link

^^^three pirate legends

mookieproof, Friday, 28 September 2018 03:23 (one year ago) link

Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have the same Top 4 in WAR:

1. Betts
2. Trout
3. deGrom
4. Scherzer

Baseball Prospectus is slightly different:

1. Trout
2. Betts
3. deGrom
4. Bregman
5. Scherzer

clemenza, Saturday, 29 September 2018 13:52 (one year ago) link

Nola starts tonight

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 29 September 2018 14:12 (one year ago) link

Can Bob Melvin win a second manager of the year award?

Van Horn Street, Monday, 1 October 2018 15:27 (one year ago) link

^^ would be his third! (2007, 2012)

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 09:24 (one year ago) link

Jose Reyes is the Mets’ nominee for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year award.

It’s an MLBPA honor, with players voting for who they “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community.” https://t.co/Ef0WIFkHNh

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) October 12, 2018

mookieproof, Friday, 12 October 2018 21:44 (one year ago) link

Of course. Of course.

Andy K, Friday, 12 October 2018 21:55 (one year ago) link

three weeks pass...

wow, the gold glove really is a stupid award, isn't it

Karl Malone, Monday, 5 November 2018 17:03 (one year ago) link

is the Fielding Bible the best defensive award these days, i guess? is there anything else?

Karl Malone, Monday, 5 November 2018 17:05 (one year ago) link

i get to vote for the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award, as a SABR member

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2018 18:53 (one year ago) link

actually i guess it's open to the Great Unwashed

https://www.rawlings.com/category-landing-pages/gold-glove-platinum-page.html

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2018 18:55 (one year ago) link

i'll have you know i bathed last week, sir.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 5 November 2018 20:22 (one year ago) link

insane that Lorenzo Cain has never won one

frogbs, Monday, 5 November 2018 20:44 (one year ago) link

Happy #ElectionDay! Here's a reminder from your friends at Baseball-Reference about how important it is to vote! pic.twitter.com/1owgyChl6e

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) November 6, 2018

mookieproof, Tuesday, 6 November 2018 16:09 (one year ago) link

:D

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 6 November 2018 16:13 (one year ago) link

wait, why was I under the impression that trout had already been excluded from the top 3?

k3vin k., Wednesday, 7 November 2018 01:43 (one year ago) link

https://media.giphy.com/media/CIGNHqM9ME51e/giphy.gif

mookieproof, Wednesday, 7 November 2018 03:26 (one year ago) link

Acuna, Ohtani

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 13 November 2018 15:09 (one year ago) link

One of those occasional instances (there was an NL MVP award a few years ago like this) where the two guys are almost in a statistical dead heat, but almost every small advantage tips in one direction--the "almost" here being Soto's higher OBP, obviously a big almost--and the vote ends up being not close at all.

clemenza, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 19:05 (one year ago) link

Acuña was so much fun to watch this season.

I hear you've been having trouble with pigs and ponies. (WmC), Tuesday, 13 November 2018 19:43 (one year ago) link

acuña deserved the ROY but i think i'm more impressed with soto's season

mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 20:16 (one year ago) link

Because of his age?

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 13 November 2018 20:50 (one year ago) link

age, lack of experience (eight double-a games!), plate discipline, splits against LHP . . . finishing second* in the league in OBP as a teenager is incredible

also completely unexpected -- he wasn't really the nationals' top outfield prospect, and in almost any other organization he would never have been given a shot

mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 21:54 (one year ago) link

snitker, melvin win the kiss of death award

mookieproof, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 00:46 (one year ago) link

Snitker! such a great name

(that's the Braves guy?)

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 14 November 2018 01:53 (one year ago) link

as expected, degrom wins the NL Cy Young

While the inning discussion was the great debate in the AL Cy Young Award field this year, the NL race became a referendum on the present-day value (or lack thereof) of a win stat invented in the late 1800s. Even in our more analytically savvy age, the win still has its disciples, but, ultimately, deGrom's season was so utterly and unquestionably dominant that the win was rightly rendered irrelevant.

The BBWAA voters looked past deGrom's 10-9 record and focused instead on

if everyone just stopped talking about the Win, would it finally go away?
https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-cy-young-award-winners/c-300724470

Karl Malone, Thursday, 15 November 2018 00:08 (one year ago) link

Yelich and Betts win, Baez and Trout are the second-place finishers.

omar little, Friday, 16 November 2018 00:30 (one year ago) link

Now is a good time to reread some of those “did the Brewers give up too much for Yelich?” articles

frogbs, Friday, 16 November 2018 00:33 (one year ago) link

most valuable voter: the guy who had deGrom 1st tonight

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 16 November 2018 01:34 (one year ago) link

He should have been a close 2nd!

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 16 November 2018 05:18 (one year ago) link

8 voters left him off their ballot entirely, which shows that the electorate doesn't even agree on what this motherfucking award is.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 16 November 2018 12:28 (one year ago) link

I wasn't quite as easygoing as #MikeTrout about it the year (1993) I came in #2 for MVP. But I wasn't in the hunt as often as him. Besides, it's not like he brought it on himself by teaching @MookieBetts about special vitamins the way I did with Barry Bonds (NL MVP in 1993).

— Lenny Dykstra (@LennyDykstra) November 16, 2018

omar little, Friday, 16 November 2018 17:58 (one year ago) link

actual footage of lenny dykstra

https://i.imgur.com/krh0Zh5.jpg

Karl Malone, Friday, 16 November 2018 18:11 (one year ago) link

Actually actual footage of Lenny 1 month ago:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/former-all-star-outfielder-lenny-dykstra-indicted-on-drug-threat-charges/

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 16 November 2018 18:27 (one year ago) link

Dykstra is facing three third-degree charges: possession of cocaine, possession of methamphetamine and making terroristic threats. Each stems from the May incident Dykstra had with an Uber driver, during which he allegedly held a gun to the driver's head.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 16 November 2018 18:28 (one year ago) link

If you get easily upset by stuff like this, do not read--you will have a coronary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/11/15/one-writer-who-voted-max-scherzer-ahead-jacob-degrom-cy-young-explains-his-ballot/?utm_term=.014f3201a619

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 19:47 (one year ago) link

*has coronary*

I hear you've been having trouble with pigs and ponies. (WmC), Friday, 16 November 2018 20:03 (one year ago) link

that's silly, but not as silly as people who are upset about degrom's win not being unanimous. scherzer had a pretty good season, and it's not like this guy had degrom fifth

mookieproof, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:11 (one year ago) link

When I opened the piece up, I honestly thought it would be somebody talking about FIP or Win Probability Added or wOBA or some small but meaningful-to-him sabermetric edge the writer had discerned in Scherzer's line. His rationale was the last thing I expected (as recently as two or three years ago, it would have been the first thing I expected, which I think is indicative of how fast things are changing).

If you step back and think about how good a season Scherzer had, I think that's a fair statement.

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:13 (one year ago) link

And Randy Jones! As a '70s guy, that had me smiling mightily. (Did he think to check in with Clay Kirby?)

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:20 (one year ago) link

Who, come to think of it, once lost 20, and in '71/'72 went 27-27 with a ERA under 3.00. Clay would have counselled that he vote for deGrom.

clemenza, Friday, 16 November 2018 20:23 (one year ago) link

Maffei, 70, said

k3vin k., Friday, 16 November 2018 21:53 (one year ago) link

Scherzer and Nola were somewhat closer to deGrom than the tally indicates. Worrying about whether an award vote is unanimous... idgi. That said, if pitchers are supposed to be eligible for the MVP, the 8 guys who blanked deGrom clearly don't believe it.

And here's Jeff Sullivan who cast his AL vote for Verlander:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-voted-for-justin-verlander/

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 16 November 2018 22:24 (one year ago) link

I always like looking at updated award-shares on Baseball Reference. Scherzer has moved into 8th-place on the Cy list; Verlander into 11th; and Kluber into 15th. (Kershaw was shut out for the first time since 2010.) Trout is 11th on the MVP list--5.06 shares, which at least is a lot more representative than his two awards.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

James had a tweet that 97 MVPs are in the HOF, 59 are not, 63%. But I assume the not-in total includes all active winners, some of whom will move into the other column. Of the last 23 winners starting in 2005--Pujols' first MVP; all winners before that are retired--I'd estimate that 12-15 will end up in the HOF, making the ratio more like 110-46, or 70%.

clemenza, Saturday, 17 November 2018 01:32 (one year ago) link

I liked the Jeff Sullivan piece above--he's basically trying to figure out the same thing I was, how Snell gave up more baserunners than Verlander but fewer runs. He's doing it at a microscopic level--I can't do that--whereas I landed on HR and GIDP (I don't think he mentions either). And he's trying to figure out "To what extent was Snell responsible for his results?" He seems to conclude that there's a lot of luck and good defense involved, while also conceding that "I know pitchers sometimes try to pitch to their ballparks or defenses or whatnot."

I look at Snell's 15-3 advantage in GIDP (in fewer innings) and think, well, give four of the extra double-plays to his defense, four of them to luck/shifting, and the other four to Snell (pitchers do try to induce ground balls, right?). Pure guesswork, I know, but Sullivan admits that there's conjecture in what he does, too: "It’s very possible, if not probable, that’s not giving Snell enough credit. Maybe he was in some way able to pitch to his defenders."

I don't think there's a right answer. His evidence is interesting, but it's so granular, I think you're starting to drift away from the reality of all those extra runs. I liked this reader comment: "Some day, people will be using nothing but spin rate and pitch location to vote for Cy Young. Shortly thereafter, the award will be retired."

clemenza, Saturday, 17 November 2018 13:30 (one year ago) link

Reader commenter OTM.

Some people tried to make a case for Rizzo based on WPA during the year that Harper won MVP. Nobody claimed that Rizzo had some magical clutch hitting ability, or that it was a repeatable skill, but the bottom line is that those hits did help his team win games, which obviously counts for something. If they'd been closer in WAR it might have made an impact on the voting, like with Snell and Verlander.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 17 November 2018 17:37 (one year ago) link

khris davis beats out j.d. martinez for the edgar martinez designated hitter of the year award

which is pretty absurd

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:10 (one year ago) link

Huh? I'm pretty easy-going when it comes to award voting--I can at least almost always see the outline of the argument as to why some guy did or didn't win, even if I don't agree. But that makes zero sense. You're talking about .247/.326/.549 vs. .330/.402/.629., 2.9 WAR vs. 6.4. Not even close, no matter what metrics you use.

clemenza, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:40 (one year ago) link

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:45 (one year ago) link

Martinez appeared in 32 games as a RF, another 25 games in LF, 93 as DH.
Davis appeared in 11 games as a LF, 139 as DH.

i guess they just saw Davis as more of a pure DH? beats me

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:48 (one year ago) link

apparently voters are instructed to take only stats as a DH into account; martinez hit .297/.373/.597 with 27 HR and 79 RBI in 93 games/400 PA as a DH while davis did essentially everything as a DH

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:48 (one year ago) link

i mean...i'd still take that production over davis but ok

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 19:51 (one year ago) link

David Price and Jonny Venters have been named winners of the 2018 American League and National League Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 20, 2018

mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:35 (one year ago) link

Wow, I didn't know Venters' story.

timellison, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:15 (one year ago) link

Khris Davis's magic .247 hat trick carried the day

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 22:48 (one year ago) link

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Is this actually comprised of former DHs? What did Jeff Burroughs know, and when did he know it?

clemenza, Wednesday, 21 November 2018 03:26 (one year ago) link


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