aaron judge needs his own thread

wRC+ of 198 halfway through his rookie season :O

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

Would much rather have Bellinger.

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

21

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

or he might be Puig.

puig was never this good!

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

#WIGS

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

30

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

roll me over romeo

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

absurd

sheesh

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

None of this is shit compared to the warning-track power Livan Hernandez just displayed in the softball game, though.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (six days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Paul Goldschmidt probably fits the bill. Judge was a Top 100 prospect though, which Goldschmidt never was.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B

Judge vs. Newton:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/13/yankees-aaron-judge-home-run-derby-roof-nasa

(Goldschmidt's pretty good, although he was dominant every stop of the way in the minors.)

What age did Josh Hamilton make his MLB debut?

Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.

No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.

I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).

Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

'unstoppable'

we're all told not to reveal how we're voting for AL rookie of the year but I will say when I write my article you can feel free to skip it

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) September 25, 2017

49, tying mcgwire

resumed being unstoppable.

.301/.438/.863 in Sept

might win him points with the Strong Finish demo

as of yesterday both Judge and McGwire had achieved an OPS+ of 164 in their rookie year. not sure how the metrics would bear out but Judge's season looks a bit more impressive right now -- they're very, very similar but AJ has scored 122 runs to McGwire's 97, and walked 119 times to McGwire's 71. I guess there's also the 1987 thing to take into account, but of course 2017 seems like a 1987 type season so idk.

isn't OPS+ relative to the league/year?

yeah

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKl7vNtW4AAI8Iu.jpg:small

awesome, hope he goes on to make a billion dollars

Heard this morning he's the sixth 50-HR/120-BB guy (arbitrary cut-offs, I know)...Bonds, Ruth, Foxx for sure; my other two guesses would be McGwire and Thome.

Wasn't sure about the last spot, but that's it; Thome had a 52-122 season, Sosa 64-116. McGwire was walking more than I'd remembered--162 the year he hit 70.

not ted williams?

huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/

On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).

Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.
12:30
Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.
12:30
Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?
12:31
Dave Cameron: Judge

Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F

— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017

when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right

Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."

cartilage cleanup!

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-shoulder-surgery-monday-yankees-announce-article-1.3648991

Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.

His BABIP is again freakishly high at .363 (.357 last year). He's .353 for his career now, which would put him tied for 7th on this (five-year-old) career list if he had enough AB, with four of the guys ahead of him only there because of their historic batting averages:

http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/

Can he keep this up? I don't know--I expected him to come back to earth this year, and thus far he hasn't.

it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza,

i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.

but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?

Is Judge even going to come back this season?

maybe after Labor Day, sounds like

tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.

xpost

Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.

Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small

Bellinger's having a okay year:

.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)
120 OPS+ (143)
3.6 WAR (4.2)
2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)

Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.

(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)

"where he levels off"

And not helped by his park:

.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.

Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

¯\(°_o)/¯

Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):

B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WAR
J: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR

I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.

bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252

idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable

Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total

One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.

Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:

2018: .278/.392/.528
2019: .272/.381/.540
2020: .257/.336/.554
2021: .272/.385/.568

Being healthy is a skill

I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.

Big judge

Slash line killah

https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png

what am i looking at here

should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?

nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!

why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol

did clemenza say bellinger was going to be better?

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:52 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:59 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:08 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:15 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:16 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:17 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:18 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:19 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:21 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:23 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:31 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

(that year was not any indication, though)

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

still feel good about this

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!

This is sort of the Bellinger thread too.

twitter.com/billjamesonline/status/1440799366243971078

Is there any historical precedent for a young player as great as Cody Bellinger was in 2017 and 2019 collapsing in the way that he has? (Not including pitchers; pitchers are different animals.) But I don't think I have ever seen this happen before. If there is precedent, who?

Ready to wave the white flag here. The Bellinger call looked like genius in 2019, but he's terrible for the third year running now, while Judge, if he can stay healthy through his 30s, might have an outside shot at the HOF. Bellinger's four-year head start is becoming increasingly meaningless.

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didnt sniff the HOF

like, is nelson cruz gonna be a hall of famer? that seems like the best case

Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.

(I meant to say sustained peak period.)

now that we've achieved closure on bellinger vs judge, you know bellinger is going to suddenly catch fire

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10
― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM

still feel good about this
― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 11, 2021 5:43 PM

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 6:35 PM

Everyone missed the obvious answer:

I'll take Bellinger for 2019, and Judge for every other year ever till the end of eternity.

we'll always have 2019 bellinger

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didn't sniff the HOF

Hit his 20th tonight in the Yankees 52nd game; a 60-HR season would make up for some of that lost time.

Looking at some projections he’s expected to land somewhere between 49-52 home runs. But I guess projection models are always on the cautious side, so it would take a lot of assume 60 home runs. Either way, I don’t see him being able to keep this up another 7 seasons, or whatever it would take to get his counting stats up to HOF muster.

Definitely not assuming...I'm using basic ratios here: 20/52 = 62/162. I guess the assumption in those models is regression-to-mean, or guys slow down, or something. And again, I don't think Judge will ever go in the HOF as a counting-stats guy (even if he manages to hit 500 HR); it'd have to be some combination of MVP prominence, team success, and something like a 60-HR season.

(Suddenly I'm Aaron Judge's biggest advocate--sorry, Cody, I've thrown you overboard.)

They're not at all similar, but I'm thinking something like the Kirby Puckett HOF route: a couple of World Series wins, MVP support virtually every year, good slash stats, very popular (at least while he played), sustained decade of excellence. Puckett never had COVID or injuries to deal with, though, so that sustained period of excellence is going to have some blips with Judge.

And Judge hits another…

gonna be interesting to see how his contract situation plays out -- he's already turned down an extension offer from the yankees, and it sure seems like he was right to do it

otoh he'll be 31 next april and i'm not sure how many years he can reasonably get

Jaffe has a HOF update/roundup on Fangraphs today. I think he sees Judge basically as I do (skipped the middle paragraph):

I said I wouldn’t dwell upon anybody with seven or fewer seasons, but Judge, who leads the AL in bWAR and the majors in fWAR (4.7), is worth making an exception for while he’s in the midst of a monster season. He’s already 30 years old, and between his late start (he was a 25-year-old rookie) and his difficulty staying on the field (he’s played more than 112 games in a season just twice), he’ll have to remain exceptionally productive for at least the next half-decade to reach Cooperstown. Still, we’re talking about a player who has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA thus far and who has raised his ceiling considerably over the past three months...

Long story short, a Hall of Fame berth for Judge isn’t out of the question, but he can’t afford to miss a quarter or a third of a season, or to suddenly turn into a 3–4 WAR per year player if he’s to get there.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-whos-boosted-their-hall-odds-in-2022/

And as I read that, I get a notification he hit a home run.

Houston swept a double-header with NY tonight, and Alvarez--possibly Judge's main competition for MVP (if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)--had a big night.

(if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)

i know you hate the hype surrounding him -- although afaik he himself has been suitably demure, unlike the much-hated marcus stroman who still headlines the jays thread three years later

but also i think you're being absurd. ohtani is a top-ten pitcher and a plus-plus hitter and -- idk, maybe judge hits 80 homers? -- you are *desperately* looking for ways to blind yourself to his greatness

I think he just thinks a lot of writers/voters are idiots

My eye-rolling at mlb.com's hyping everything Ohtani does aside, I'm not expressing a personal opinion at all when weighing his chances to repeat as MVP. As you full well know, there has always been a strong tendency in MVP voting for writers to look for a new story every year. That's why Mays and Bonds didn't win another five MVPs each. If Ohtani is in the neighborhood of other MVP candidates at the end of the year, I'd bet money he won't repeat. If he's 2.0 or 3.0 WAR ahead, then sure, he will. But I don't think he will be.

Hit his 37th today--on pace for 62.

40 + 41

42

I don't understand why anyone is still pitching to him at this point

I saw a graphic earlier today that had him even with Bonds' pace in 2001, but he's not--even with his HR tonight, he's four behind through 104 games. And Bonds went on to hit another 26.

i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 10:23 PM (five years ago) bookmarkflaglink

😬

Posnanski has a shareable column up today:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/the-power-of-judge?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

I was looking at the wrong column on Bonds' 2001 game log yesterday--Judge is only two HR behind him through 104 games.

Still running only two HR behind Bonds (through 112 games). Which still seems close to meaningless in terms of catching him--28 in 50 games to tie? But 60--15 in 50 games--looks very promising, depending upon how much they pitch around him.

you mean 15 in 42 games… surely :)

Stop Fricking around, this is serious business.

huh. still - better odds of him beating Ruth there. i'm def going to keep an eye on that.

this guy is simply out of control

Just a complete player. What he’s doing to pitchers is disgusting.

I checked in on Cody B and well I really hope he gets it together. He’s looking like Jason Heyward these days.

he needs to hit a few more singles so he can steal 5 more bases and join griffey, mays, and…brady anderson as the only 50/20 guys

from river ave blues patreon:

Is there an award higher than MVP they can give Aaron Judge? I don’t know what more this guy can do for the Yankees. The Yankees scored three runs in three games in Tampa and he scored all three: two solo homers, plus he doubled and then aggressively took third on a ground ball to short to set up a sac fly. ESPN says he’s the first Yankee to score every run in a series since Babe Ruth in 1929 (minimum three games and two runs scored).

Judge went 11-for-33 (.333) with five homers and a .488 OBP during the 10-game road trip. The rest of the Yankees went 37-for-262 (.141) with three homers and a .252 OBP, and keep in mind they padded those stats during the 13-run game in Oakland. Judge gets pitched around so much these days that he gets maybe one or two pitches to hit a night, sometimes zero, yet the pitches he does get to hit wind up in the seats, or doing something to help the Yankees win. Monday’s homer was Judge’s 54th of the season. That's the most by any player since Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 in 2017, and the most by an American League player since Jose Bautista hit 54 in 2010.

I mean, he could pitch - dominantly… just sayin!

To be fair, I would like to point out that Cody Bellinger is slugging .518 this year with two outs and runners in scoring position.

he should try slugging it in more common situations

Hence the joke--that's how far into the weeds I had to wade to find one positive split for Bellinger. He's terrible overall, and terrible in just about every situation.

He’s a great dad

(I don’t know that, I’m not sure if mr bellinger has kids or not)

When I saw Bellinger play live a couple months ago, what struck me was how graceful and easy he made it look in the OF, and how bad he looked at the plate. Even from my distant vantage point he just seemed off. That big ol swing of his was probably full of holes just waiting to be discovered or he’s just lost something with it.

judge with #55

TSH here cut away to a Judge AB during their 11:00 sportscast.

TSN, that should read.

Hitting almost .500 this month, now within 9 points of Bogaerts for the batting lead (and Triple Crown).

Whoah--two tonight.

Both HR tied the game, too; they just gave him an IBB in extra innings.

the walk was sooo lame man

I’m in NY in just over a week - attending a yanks game, and there is no way he’s not hitting #62 before I get there

If you catch #62, do not trade it in for a free hot dog and a photo with Judge--cash in.

…and make it clear ur shaking down the yankees not judge

he has been walked in extra innings every single time, i think a team would probably walk him with the bases loaded if there were fewer than two outs

% pitches thrown to Aaron Judge that were in zone:

47.6% <---- April 2022
48.7% <---- May 2022
48.0% <---- June 2022
44.2% <---- July 2022
43.4% <---- August 2022
53.4% <---- September 2022 https://t.co/smFB8xBuw4

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 14, 2022

xp that sounds very incorrect, power hitters tend to GIDP a lot so you're spotting the other team a run to lower the chance of your best outcome, all out of fear of your worst outcome

maybe they'd figure he's less likely to gidp than giancarlo or ikf?

I used to lament the fact that this guy was on the fuckin Yankees of all teams but after seeing what happened to Trout and Ohtani I actually kinda want to see him win a World Series mvp

what happened to Trout and Ohtani?

they were banished to a team that never goes to the playoffs

Thinking he might get to Sosa’s peak season at this rate.

already at 10.4 fWAR. about to pass betts for the best non-bonds season of the 21st century

also a point of batting average away from the triple crown

“but what is his era?” - annoying people

Judge has 20 more homers than anyone else in baseball, something only Babe Ruth has ever done.

he's batting .491 in September so far

I used to love telling students about Ruth's 1920 season, when he outhomered every team in the league except his own--it was like science-fiction, I'd say. That won't happen this year, but Judge (59) ain't that far behind the Tigers (93).

All over the place, but asks a good question: "What is (Judge) chasing?"

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/the-real-home-run-record?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

what does he conclude? (paywalled)

to me, the record that i care about is still 61. sosa and mcgwire and bonds count, there's no need to pretend it didn't happen. i just don't care about those records in the same way that i don't care if two timin' jimmy mcneely hit .424 in 1897 or whatever

That link should work--it's one with a share link. I'll try again:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/the-real-home-run-record?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Anyway, no real conclusion:

Ruth’s 60 is a number we care about still, though the game has changed many times over since then.

Maris’ 61 is a number we care about still, though the game has changed many times over since.

Bonds’ 73 is also a number we care about still, though the game has, we hope, changed since then, too.

And wherever Judge ends up, we’ll care about that, too. What’s the REAL record? Let’s be honest: It is whatever you want it to be.

it turns out the home run record was inside of us all along

the record is 73

What would you consider the single-season E.R.A. or strikeout records for pitchers?

the single season ERA record is 0, held by me and every other person on earth

so many unearned runs though

There you go then: the E.R.A. record is whatever you want it to be.

I only acknowledge my favorite HR race of all time, when 38 yr old Darrell Evans beat 37 year old Carlton Fisk for the 1985 AL home run crown. Steve Balboni in third place.

when i was a kid i had so much energy that i would pitch along to the televised games, mirroring the delivery of the pitcher. jfc i was a dork. but i feel like i threw hundreds of innings during those years, putting wear and tear on my arm at an early age. gave up some tough hits during those games as well, it was a learning experience

Baseball Reference--which may or may not jibe with the MLB's official record book, I don't know--has the single-season strikeout record as Matt Kilroy's 513 in 1886, when hitters used sawed-off table legs as bats and pitchers were allowed to take a 100-yard running start before delivering a pitch. Nolan Ryan's 382 ranks eighth.

1996 brady anderson is the most interesting single-season home run count and thus the record

jimmy otm

Pretty significant death. It doesn't make sense by modern metrics (39.6 career bWAR), but I know he still has passionate HOF advocates. He and Wes Parker were basically the focus of an excellent book I read last year on the great '60s Dodgers teams, The Last Innocents.

Oops.

60! Was watching the live look-in on mlb.com.

No doubter. he makes it look so easy

Worst thing is, on a night the Jays can move to within four, he's sparked this 9th-inning rally.

Thanks, Judge.

officially the triple crown leader now, too

I wasn't kidding the other day--I hate this.

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-student-catches-aaron-judge-60th-home-run-ball

You don't owe Judge or Cooperstown or the game or fandom anything; keep it and get as much as you can.

In six or seven years, this guy could have a family and a mountain of student debt. His five minutes with Aaron Judge may not seem so special anymore.

It’s so great that the two MVP contenders are just legend types like him and Ohtani. And if Trout didn’t miss time he’d be in the top three I’m thinking.

Wonder if we’re entering a new era of peak value consideration weighing more on HOF chances than accumulated value, and if it’ll benefit a guy like this. Judge has suffered injuries but the three seasons he’s been healthy he’s been ridiculous.

Probably a similar argument can apply to DeGrom, though Judge being younger has more time to pad out his numbers and I trust his health more going forward.

I may have said it in this thred but if i catch a meaningful HR ball im making it extremely clear that im shaking down the team/owner and not the player

Right--no malice towards Judge at all, who seems as likeable and as humble as can be. I just don't think you owe the "game" anything at all. I mean, the fans are almost the last consideration of the league anytime a decision is made.

(xpost) Yes to all of that. I suggested Judge as a possible HOF candidate on some thread in May, when he just seemed like the MVP favorite.

Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.

― clemenza, Thursday, May 19, 2022

I think the peak value Hall of Fame arguments for Votto/Posey/Mauer are going to work in their favor so I actually think similarly Judge doesn’t even necessarily have to reach any of the more fabled trad milestone totals. I think he might, though. His skill set is likely gonna age better than people think, he’s a big dude but he’s not Ryan Howard or Chris Davis.

The baseball Hall of Fame is moving more towards what they do with the NBA and NFL HOFs, which really reward peak value more and tend to value compilers less. Guys like Tracy McGrady and Terrell Davis getting the hall call in their sports are good examples.

trying and failing to imagine aaron judge on roids

give him speed and roids and he'd have 200 home runs this season

The safest path to the HOF is to start early (20/21), pile up a whole bunch of HOF seasons before you're 30, and build up a cushion that allows you to coast through your 30s--still playing, but probably only intermittently at All-Star level.

There might be a hidden advantage with someone like Judge, though, that will help you when you're up for induction. You got a late start, so you have to keep playing at an All-Star level deep into your 30s--36 or 37, maybe. The one thing you won't have then is that prolonged decline phase that Pujols and Cabrera and others have had. There just isn't enough time.

Adrian Beltre, Paul Molitor, and David Ortiz are good examples; they were great almost right till the end.

in his last season Ortiz hit 48 HR and led the league in doubles, RBI, slugging and OPS

nelson cruz is probably not making the hall of fame though

judge would need at least a couple more 6 WAR seasons i think before his peak is actually impressive by the current HoF standards

at which point hes not that far from having a worthy full career WAR anyway

Best season ever in the shittiest era of baseball.

At lunch, I had the AM sports talk on and they were going on about Bonds record not counting etc. ESPN made millions off that crap and said nothing about the roids at the time.

Don't have anything against Judge, he seems to be a very unique athlete. I was always impressed on how he moved in the outfield for such a big dude. He's definitely not Big Donkey Adam Dunn out there.

two doubles and a walk tonight

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-aaron-judge-gets-his-300-million-deal/

judge is having an all-timer season but i feel sorry for whichever team takes his next contract

(although, maybe i don't. everyone and everything has so much money now. maybe "losing" on a contract isn't a big deal like it used to be)

Before we go, however, there’s one other factor to consider that does help Judge’s cause, and that is Mets owner Steve Cohen. The parsimonious nature of owners hasn’t yet hindered Cohen and while he hasn’t been explicit, hints have dropped about the team’s payroll reaching anywhere from $300 million to $345 million. That leaves room for the Mets to get into a Judge bidding war, and I doubt the idea of signing the crosstown rival’s MVP winner makes that prospect less enticing.

yeah, money is no longer a factor. it matters, but not really. i need to update the way i think about contracts

(xposts) Would seem to be in an ideal spot to chase the TC.

1) Big HR lead, doesn't matter if he's walked or pitched around a lot.

2) Big RBI lead, people getting on base ahead of him doesn't matter.

3) Team has basically clinched the division.

So two doubles and a walk is a great game.

i think he should hit some more dingers

bit of a fuss because friday’s yankees game is exclusive to apple tv, seriously restricting the audience for potential record tying/breaking

classic mlb, really

you only need an apple tv login (which is free) to watch those games, you don't have to be paying for the service. which seems less restrictive than paying for mlbtv or espn or cable

literally the only ways i can watch a baseball game on tv without paying for it in chicago are apple TV, youtube broadcasts, and the free games on mlbtv

oh maybe you're just saying fewer people watch games on apple tv? sorry if i'm misinterpreting the issue

ya it's a real problem. I have a good streaming plan but Brewers games aren't a part of it since they got moved to Bally Sports, so I don't really follow them anymore. instead I just get my updates from 3-4 Brewers accounts on Twitter, which isn't exactly an engaging way to follow the sport. I don't really know who half the players are on the team anymore. even when I just had it on in the background I'd at least watch certain at-bats, hear certain names over and over, get engaged by the last few innings, etc. etc. feel like one of MLB's top priorities should be to get the games in as many homes as possible and for some reason they seem to be doing the opposite.

the current leadership are fucking morons if you hadn’t noticed and it’s been this way for some time

Re: his upcoming massive deal, I don’t see Judge turning into a Pujols type as he ages, he’s a more athletic player than Pujols, and seems like a guy with a skill set that will age gracefully rather than depressingly. Not saying he’ll ever do this again obv, and also obv anything can happen.

that said i kinda like the appletv deal, it makes mlb “cool” in a way and apple has to be pretty thrilled at the coincidence of this game being important in some way. but yes in general linear tv still matters and the rsns aren’t doing a good enough job either with their coverage or promoting it (with a few exceptions)

i have good memories of watching pretty much every yankees game of the 1998 season on wpix for free, it just became part of my life

xpost agree but the history of tall dude hitters isn’t usually one of graceful ageing

i think he will hit 50 HR at least once more again. 60 probably not, that doesn't happen much

you only need an apple tv login (which is free) to watch those games, you don't have to be paying for the service. which seems less restrictive than paying for mlbtv or espn or cable

(this is hypothetical for me) but if i were a yankee fan who shelled out for YES on cable all season, i would be bitter that, at best, i had to jump through hoops to see tonight's game

i didn't know that you could watch free on apple tv! but i'll bet a lot of other people don't know that either, or aren't prepared for the setup, or only discovered the issue tonight

it's just really poor that you can pay for cable or for mlb.tv all season long and now there's a different scenario for possibly the biggest regular-season game of the year

the main problem with apple tv is that the broadcast is just awful. maybe i'm being too critical but the games i saw with newport, young and keyser were catastrophically hard to watch. actively making it worse with every word, and constantly talking. there's also a west coast apple tv team that includes hunter pence (?!). i haven't heard them before but the cards/dodgers game tonight is also on apple tv, so i think that'll probably be them.

also it's a minor thing but the apple games use some sort of machine-learning probability thing that is constantly telling you weird things in the corner of the screen that technically make sense but are not illuminating or thought provoking at all, like:

RBI PROBABILITY: 19%

like, who the fuck cares about that? and i'm a stat nerd, relatively, i think?

it's besides the point, but also i think fangraphs did a short article looking into how accurate the apple probability shit in the corner is, and found that it was uh not good at all lol

oh dear i actually know keyser and had no idea she was doing this

i have no opinion on her work in general but was unaware that she had any background in broadcasting

(iirc she was one of the female reporters in front of whom that one *especially* assholish astros exec made a point of celebrating roberto osuna)

I was interested to see what sort of innovation Apple would bring to the table for the broadcast. Apart from the hilariously austere Apple graphic sensibility - which sat strangely in a sport better known for its love of retro baroqueness - that 'on base probability' text was the only really noticeable attempt at doing something different. Strangely they removed it for the Judge ABs I saw. Might have been funny to pop up "HR probability" for him. Start him out at 8% or whatever. I don't think it added much - although for newbies it might have been illuminating? Though if that were the point, a graphic might have been more effective. Like a bar that rises and falls, changing color as a hit gets more likely or less likely. But a real innovation for an interactive service surely should be the ability to turn this stuff on or off?? I would love to be able to turn on or off the strike zone box, for instance. Or call up all manner of stat-head nonsense - launch angle, spin rate etc - when I want, turn it off when I want. Seems like a real missed opportunity for Apple to show what a tech-first company can bring to live sports.

"Unfortunately I am unable to celebrate the successes of ANY Yankees, but I do have to grudgingly admit that Aaron Judge is perhaps the greatest player I have ever seen. PERHAPS; I said. Don't take it to the bank."

A guy who used to be in the Red Sox analytic department...He also calculates Judge at 43 Win Shares, best non-PED-related total this century.

Six walks in two games now. The IBB last night, sure--otherwise, hate that Toronto's doing this.

so lame

It was weird - a bunch of those ABs they got him to two strikes and then decide to start playing hard to get with the strike zone. I don’t know what’s up with that, but if they’re going to pitch to him, fucking pitch to him

I just checked. He has a .699 OPS on the season with two strikes - so I have no idea why they starting acting like they’re too shy to ask strike three to the dance all of the sudden.

Mandatory “Judge is unreal,” but …

I’m fascinated by the number of articles written on the premise that Judge isn’t using PEDs. I don’t know whether he is or isn’t but I do know I wouldn’t trust MLB’s drug testing program that much to a frame a story like that.

And please don’t read that as a sly defense of Bonds or whoever. It isn’t.

Long Judge piece by Robert Christgau of Fangraphs:

https://robertchristgau.substack.com/p/awaiting-62?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Judge will probably get two more home runs this season by accident so I think 62 or more is happening.

Bill James is crazy w that opinion upthread which isn’t to say this single season couldn’t be easily argued as the best he’s witnessed.

wow that’s a sentence i never thought i’d read.

xpost

#61

61 years since 61.

Aaron Judge has written his name alongside Roger Maris in baseball's record books. pic.twitter.com/1V4Gums34C

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 29, 2022

Generic lefty with one man on base = that secret sauce

angry some random torontonian won't be able to sell it for $3 million

So who was on the phone in the next room trying to get a lost debit card locked?

Was that the longest gap between home runs this season for him?

Nine games.

I find it interesting that people still make such a big deal about "league records" after 25 years of interleague play and the universal DH, not to mention that players jump between leagues all the time now.

journalists make a big deal out of it because it gives them something to write about, absolutely no one else cares

?? 37,000 people were screaming their heads off last night when Judge tied--not even broke--the record. Were they all journalists? (Not to mention that that this particular league record, whether you agree or not, takes on added significance.)

well you've answered your own question - it's because it was maris, the fabled mark of 61, another yankee. you know how many people discount bonds (and mcgwire and sosa) - in their minds 61 is still the real mark. plus those other guys weren't yankees so they don't really count lol

absolutely zero to do with 'the AL record'

Roger Maris Jr. owns a sports apparel store called 61 Outfitters that according to his LinkedIn was "created for hunters and fishermen who strive to Bag, Catch and Be the Best."

— Bradford William Davis (@BWDBWDBWD) September 29, 2022

Okay. I'd like to put that to the test with another league record as prominent as the HR record, but I don't think there are any other categories as prominent.

I think if any of McGwire, Bonds or Sosa were in the HoF (that is, if it weren’t for their association with PEDs) then that would be the big number (73, 70, or 66) Judge would be looking to break. Many people (including me) care more about 61. I agree that any hysteria around it has little to do with it being a league record.

In other words, if Maris would have hit 61 in the National League rather than in the AL, his 61 would still be the big number for Judge to eclipse (in the minds of people like me).

Possibly feel like I’m just saying what everyone else is saying but also I just woke up

(I think bonds 73 is the record in the same way that if a pitcher set an ERA record during the 2020 pandemic season, that would also be a record. It would count, and yet most people would want to see it broken under normal circumstances)

I think of 60+ HR as more of a neat thing like the 50/50 in hockey

I think Bieber and Bauer both set records during the pandemic season that most people either discount or aren't even aware of.

Got my head around what I wanted to say. I think you're 99% right about league records, with one exception: the A.L. home run record. Even if steroids had never existed, and Bonds and the rest had done what they did, I still think the A.L. HR record would be a big deal because of its association first with Ruth, and then with the fabled/sad Maris/Mantle story. And Judge's stature will, I think, add to that. Otherwise, I agree, no one much cares about league records.

you really think that if it was jose canseco hitting 65 ‘roided home runs for the a’s it would be a different story?

I'm trying to look at this in the absence of steroids, which complicate everything; in such a world, yes, I think the A.L. HR record would still resonate.

I'd extend that to the career record, too; if Mike Trout were to ever approach 714 HR (probably unreachable by now), I think it would be a very big deal.

ruth only hit 708 in the AL, which is among the reasons it makes even less sense to divide career records by league

60+ homers is/was incredibly rare for 100s of years of baseball history except during a brief blip in the late 90s/early 00s (what could've possibly caused that blip?).

it's a very cool achievement, and i find it funny that all of the "baseball can't market its talent" people are all of a sudden grumpy because the person they're marketing is on the yankees

(xpost) Forgot about that...

hey I dislike the Yankees too but if someone on say the Marlins hit 60+ HRs I bet a lot of people wouldn't even hear about it

baseball fans would. random people probably not

well you've answered your own question - it's because it was maris, the fabled mark of 61, another yankee. you know how many people discount bonds (and mcgwire and sosa) - in their minds 61 is still the real mark. plus those other guys weren't yankees so they don't really count lol

absolutely zero to do with 'the AL record'

Totally OTM. It's one thing to not vote Bonds for the HOF because of various reasons, it's another thing to pretend those 60 and 70 HR seasons never existed. Making up a new mystique around the "AL record" gives people a pretext to discount McGwire, Sosa, and co. while getting to witness history in 2022.

I'm trying to look at this in the absence of steroids, which complicate everything; in such a world, yes, I think the A.L. HR record would still resonate

I think this is mixing cause and effect. The record resonates for some because it gives them an excuse to ignore the actual HR record.

If McGwire had hit 59 HR in 1998, ESPN wouldn't have produced documentaries twenty years later about the season when he broke Hack Wilson's hallowed NL record. It was all about Ruth and Maris.

As a kid following baseball just before the steroid era, I never thought of Ruth's or Maris's records as AL records. They were the single-season MLB home-run records.

But what I'm saying is, because of Ruth (mostly) and Maris/Mantle (partially), this is one league record that has lasting meaning that stands outside of steroids, the actual record, everything. As the saying goes, I think we will just have to agree to disagree here.

baseball fans would. random people probably not

― ciderpress, Thursday, September 29, 2022 12:54 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah that's what I mean. like people I work with who maybe couldn't name a single current baseball player know about this

hey I dislike the Yankees too but if someone on say the Marlins hit 60+ HRs I bet a lot of people wouldn't even hear about it

Was there any major media thirst over the Stanton quest for 60 a few years back? I feel like he sat on his final total of 59 for a couple games at the end of the season too. Most forgetting 50 HR guy this side of Greg Vaughn.

also this has been a real smokescreen for how badly the rest of the yankees lineup has been hitting

I was plugged in enough to know about Stanton but I don't think it got any attention outside of baseball media. Maybe Sportscenter did a segment or two about it. I actually remember thinking "huh, maybe 50 HRs isn't a big deal anymore"

it's still a big deal in that it's a target that doesn't get hit by anyone in the league a lot of years

I think Aaron Judge definitely fits the criteria of the fabled MVP candidate who carries his team to the postseason.

There was a little fanfare for stanton back then but it may have just been on the internet. It felt like way less of an inevitability though - judge reached 59 HR in 14 fewer games.

It was also the 2017 hitting environment where every team had at least 8 players who hit 30 homers so it may have registered as less of an individual achievement.

I do wonder what the narrative would be like if it were a famous player on a big market NL team this year, with the exact same offensive season as judge. Like if it were Harper or Betts reaching 55 with a full month left. They'd have to come up with something.

anyway real asterisk heads know that judge merely tied the *true* AL record of 60. ruth hit 60 in a 154-game season; judge didn't hit his 61st until game 155

I don't actually follow baseball anymore, but I have been following the Judge HR chase since I saw an article about it in the New York Times a few weeks ago. At the time I went to Baseball Reference to look at the single-season leaderboard and was astonished to see the Stanton 59-HR season on there, since I hadn't been aware of it when it happened (and Stanton himself is only vaguely familiar to me).

They'd have to come up with something.

they'd have to be more explicit about steroid-era records not *really* counting. this AL record stuff lets them elide that

Is there a parallel here with Rocket Richard's 50 goals in 50 games? That's been done a number of times now (5? 10?), and Gretzky scored 50 in many fewer. But Rocket Richard--maybe because he was first, and it was science-fiction-like when he did it--is still remembered for 50 in 50. Maybe when my generation of fans is dead, Ruth's 60 will be forgotten. But until then, I don't think so. One thing I'll never forget is the ending of Robert Creamer's chapter on the '27 season, with Ruth yelling "60! Let's see some son of a bitch top that!"

ruth is allowed to prorate his 60 to a current season length so the actual record is 63.12

ruth played before integration, though. don't think he'd have quite as many HRs if he was playing against all of the best pitchers.

this is why the true HR record can only be determined in a giant clean room cube, no wind, identical field for all players, 1,000 games played with all players rotating between teams for perfect equal competition. each "season epoch" will take 8 years

(xpost) That reminds me of some player in Ball Four (Danny Cater?) who was famous around the league (and ridiculed) for being able to calculate his batting average to four decimals as he ran down to first.

anyway real asterisk heads know that judge merely tied the *true* AL record of 60. ruth hit 60 in a 154-game season; judge didn't hit his 61st until game 155

― mookieproof, Thursday, September 29, 2022 2:44 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

judge has fewer plate appearances !!1!11

xp the room cube should be rotating too to spice things up a bit

And everyone should drink, smoke and whore as much as Ruth

Mike Greenburg is pretty much wrong on everything but I had the AM radio on eating lunch in my car a couple weeks ago and I wanted to hit him with a brick as he kept going on and on and on about how Judge deserved some more attention because Bonds was on 'roids. I kept thinking to myself the whole time, 'hey ahole Babe Ruth did not have to play against black or latin players' how about an asterisk for him too. Times change and the world moves on.

xp the baseball room cube should rotate very slowly and in every direction (like tommy lee's drum riser hovering above the crowd during a solo) so that over the course of 1000 games the cube has encountered every shadow/daylight possibility an exact equal number of times for each player

finally, we will be able to compare every player on an equal playing field

Saw one of the walks today, and honestly, it was infuriating. Bottom of the 7th, Judge leading off. The Yankees are up 4-0, the game is meaningless to both teams. First three pitches, outside and not even close, not one of them. The fourth pitch was very hittable: outside strike, good for getting your arms out, but Judge fouled it off. Next pitch, outside and not even close.

As with the Jays and a few of their walks, the Yankees go on to a big inning (four runs). Unless you're terrified of giving up #62, why wouldn't you go right at him? I checked the run expectancy matrix, and none out and a runner on 1st yields 0.831 runs. Judge homers once every nine AB this year, hits a single once every 6.5 AB, gets a double once every six AB; he makes out 69% of the time. I don't know how to put all that together, but the walk seems like a bad move percentage-wise. And even it's a slightly better move, who cares? Your team is out.

let us at least get to 82 wins first before we have to sacrifice ourselves to the legend of the One True Yankee

Fair enough--getting over .500 would be important to a surprise team. I probably assumed without thinking about it that they were already there.

But even as a percentage move, walking the leadoff batter when you're down four runs seems very iffy. (And believe me, the Jays were pulling exactly the same kind of stuff.)

well brandon hyde does also just strike me as the kind of manager who would view it as a personal failure if 62 was hit off his team

All the walks have probably kept him in the Triple Crown picture. Bogarts has dropped to .307; Judge is a couple of points behind Arraez. He's unlikely to have one of those 0-4 or 0-5 nights that could effectively end any chance; two walks a night, then he either goes 0-2 or 1-2. He needs to sneak in a three-hit game or two on a night he gets five PA.

i just want never to hear about roger maris jr. ever again

in their last 20 games, Judge and Pujols have both hit 6 HRs

or wait, actually Pujols hit one today, so make that 7-6 Pujols. take that Aaron Judge!

If I'm the Rangers manager, I'm gathering my pitchers together and summoning the voice of Casey Stengel: "You need to give this fella a chance--I want you pitchin' to him."

they should pitch however they think will best win them the game. no one should bow to the yankees

I don't see it as bowing to the Yankees--I'd say the same with anybody on any team. I'm not saying groove one, just that the games are meaningless, give the guy a chance; challenge him.

rather than try to win the game? okay

Pitching to someone means you're not trying to win the game? These guys are all professional baseball players, right? Pitchers included? Time and again the past two weeks teams have set up multi-run Yankee innings by needlessly walking Judge when either no one was on or there was a runner on first. I really and truly don't see where you're coming from. Texas is 66-92 right now. They're going to pull out all the strategic stops, stupid ones included, so they can what--finish 68-94?

If Judge gets all of six AB in the next four games, I see a sport pointlessly shooting itself in the foot--par for the course when it comes to baseball.

wait you think pitchers are self-defeatingly refusing to give judge balls to hit? out of like, malice?

what i think is that judge, like all truly fearsome sluggers before him, rattles pitchers who have to face him to the point where they can barely think. ruth and bonds were both consistent walk leaders. not because pitchers were intentionally shooting themselves in the foot. but because they were so good pitchers were scared to put it down the middle. it’s judge’s skill that provokes the walks. which as you have noted, are productive - so… if he’s sparking rallies then… wgaf?

i haven't watched any of the recent games. i assume since the rest of the lineup is struggling, opposing teams are happy to pitch around judge

i'm not sure if or how it affects things, but i don't the yankees think of these games as meaningless. they made the playoffs, sure, but everyone knows they've sucked badly in the second half. surely they are trying to win a few games and try to get some momentum heading into the playoffs (? maybe not)

maybe i just don't understand what "pitching to someone" means, but i watched most of the blue jays/yankees games people on here were complaining about recently, and i did not see pitchers trying to pitch around judge. they were trying to hit the edges of the zone and sometimes missing, but it wasn't fear-based, it was trying to avoid leaving a pitch in the middle of the zone where he could clobber it. judge has clearly been pushing too hard for the past week or two - he probably needs a break tbh.

Possibly Judge is just freezing up a bit, and waiting for that perfect pitch and is pressing, but I think he’ll get one or two more yet.

We didn't see the same AB then. I mostly saw pitchers giving him one or two pitches per AB, the rest not even close. Anyway, I'd be interested if these answers would be the same if it were your favourite player on your favourite team.

Could be just a situation where a pitcher doesn’t want to be posterized as it were. And the pitchers might be a little nervous in that respect too. Hard to say. I don’t think there’s a low key conspiracy.

Orioles took 2 out of 3 from the Yankees after playing pretty dismal ball against them all year, so I'm not gonna second-guess Hyde here; I promise you, Orioles fans care about these games when we're 50-100 and we care about these games when we're having a winning season, like now. Having watched this team all year I can tell you for sure that our pitchers losing the strike zone is in no way restricted to Aaron Judge.

I should say -- took 2 out of 3 by holding the Yankees to 2 runs in the 2 wins, so yes despite Voth's disaster of a start in the middle game I think the Orioles were pitching the Yankees the way a team that wanted to beat the Yankees would pitch them.

I looked at all the games since Judge tied the record in Pittsburgh (meaning last game of the Pirates series, then Boston/Toronto/Baltimore. (He didn't walk in the second Boston game.) Counting only runs scored after Judge walks:

Pitt - 1 walk, 2 runs

Bos - 3 walks 0 runs
Bos - 1 walk, 1 run
Bos - 1 walk, 0 runs

Tor - 2 walks, 0 runs
Tor - 4 walks, 3 runs
Tor - 1 walk, 3 runs

Bal - 2 walks, 0 runs
Bal - 2 walks, 4 runs
Bal - 1 walk, 1 run

You can decide for yourself whether whatever it is they're doing is working: 10 games, 18 different innings, 14 runs. He also was hit by a pitch in one of the Baltimore games; three runs scored after the HBP, which would make it 17 runs in 19 innings of giving him first base.

I'm sure everyone on this board, based on a mountain of evidence, would agree that the IBB is not a good strategic move except in extreme cases, like the one extra-inning game against the Jays. I find it curious how if teams don't flash four fingers, but kinda-sorta IBB him anyway, it's suddenly a good strategy.

(That should read since he hit #60 in Pittsburgh.)

Could be just a situation where a pitcher doesn’t want to be posterized as it were.

A few of you--not sure if omar was one of them--spent a couple of days arguing that the A.L. record was no big deal, which, if you're right (and again, I disagree), would seem to guarantee the pitcher is quickly forgotten.

I was thinking about this today, and I think in general the long-lasting infamy of pitchers who give up iconic HR is overstated. I remember that Al Downing gave up Aaron's 715th (and that Tom House caught it)--I was young, and that was a big one. I of course remember that Mitch Williams gave up Carter's HR, that Sam Dyson gave up Bautista's, and that Ubaldo Jiminez gave up Encarnacion's (though I did have to double-check his name). What I remember even more is who didn't give up Encarnacion's: Zach Britton.

Pitchers I don't remember: McGwire's 62nd, Sosa's 62nd, McGwire's 70th, Bonds' 71st, Bonds' 73rd, Bonds' 756th, Bonds' 762nd. I'm a little embarrassed to say that I don't remember who gave up Fisk's Game 6 HR, ditto Bucky Dent's.

jesus christ it’s not difficult, pitchers nibble against judge because he’s god-like this year, they miss a lot, end of story. it’s not a “strategy” or a conspiracy!

First 144 games, 94 walks; next 10 games, 17 walks. Don't think I ever used the word "conspiracy," but if you don't detect any kind of a change there...

Maybe the pitchers should conspire; the Texas pitchers and all the other pitchers can have a meeting before this next series to discuss their top-secret strategies that have been getting Judge out in 69% of his AB over the season.

And again, my bigger question: intentional, not intentional, nibbling, whatever--is this working? When they were walking Judge much less frequently, and he was hitting a ton of HR, were the Yankees scoring at a rate of 17 runs in 19 innings?

And if it isn't working, would it maybe a good idea to walk him less frequently?

clemenza. if they throw ball over plate more judge hit ball go far. if miss on heart of plate judge still hit ball go far. pitcher try no throw over heart of plate! maybe judge at this stage season more fearsome than early on! maybe reputation force weakness, error, who know! nothing "work" against hitter like judge! only less bad outcome!

If they were getting a, uh, less bad outcome, I might agree. You refuse to address that the outcome they're getting since #60 is terrible.

I know that your stubborness about this has absolutely nothing to do with you being a Red Sox fan, and that if it were Rafael Devers instead of Judge, you'd be every bit as understanding.

I wish I could call up that lead-off AB against Baltimore the other night on YouTube, the one I posted about earlier. One pitch was what you call nibbling--it was a good pitch, and Judge fouled it off. The other four pitches Bo Bichette wouldn't have swung at.

clemenza! they are not TRYING - by and large - to walk him! it's not a strategy! he's just forcing them to make borderline pitches that they're missing! do you realise how much more of a compliment that is to your boy than the idea that pitchers are adopting a "strategy" en masse of walking judge that is backfiring on them ??

Impasse--let's drop it. I keep saying the same thing: that most of the walks I've seen amounted to "I'll throw you a borderline strike mid-count, maybe two, and then I'm going to essentially intentionally walk you." You see something different: you see crafty pitchers battling Judge, refusing to give in, and if they walk him to lead off an inning, and two runs score, well, at least he didn't homer.

We're just seeing something different.

I wish I could call up that lead-off AB against Baltimore the other night on YouTube, the one I posted about earlier.

was it one of these? these are the walks (from the last three games against the O's:

https://i.imgur.com/Wzm0tcM.png
https://i.imgur.com/1Ry5qx7.png
https://i.imgur.com/O62Bw8L.png
https://i.imgur.com/8fREqdI.png

Thanks for looking that up. Went back to my description and checked the game log; it would be the Spencer Watkins. To me, that's an IBB without four fingers: one nibble, four balls that aren't close. The Kyle Bradish AB is better, but still, three of those pitches aren't close. The other two AB, no problem.

All told, 22 pitches, 5 tough strikes/great pitches, 2 very hittable strikes. And, yes, I will point out again: the Yankees were up 4-0 in the 7th when Spencer Watkins walked him. You give up that 5th run--and they gave up four--you've essentially lost the game. That's just stupid baseball.

Made a mad dash to the TV after that post when I remembered I could watch the Yankee game. "Jesus, don't tell me I missed #62 arguing about #62 on the internet."

I’m not suggesting pitchers are worried about long lasting infamy as much as maybe they simply don’t want to be the guy to give up #62 and they erring on the side of giving him tough pitches. I also don’t think a walk strategy would work (and I don’t think it’s a strategy really), but if it was, as we’ve seen with managers over the years they don’t make the best decisions a lot of the time.

i haven't seen any of the recent games, but i agree that pitchers aren't having much success against Judge lately. since September 1, he's hitting .393/.556/.820, .550 wOBA, 272 wRC+. he's walked in 26.4% of his PAs. also, importantly, his BABIP is .510, which means that when he gets pitched close enough to the zone to make contact, he's still getting tons of hits.

in other words, he's playing like barry bonds in the early 2000s, when he got walked a billion times.

i think the thought that pitchers are simply pitching around him to avoid getting punished -- with poor results, as you've noted -- makes a lot more sense if you keep the assumption that the opposing teams are still trying to do everything they can to win, even if they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. there are a number of reasons that a player/team would still want to do everything possible to win, ranging from psychological (competitiveness) to financial (their stats are correlated to how much money they make).

"Jesus, don't tell me I missed #62 arguing about #62 on the internet."

lol, this would be a very 2022 kind of event too

As we thrash around in this unknowable gray area, some crystalline logic from the Yankees announcer: "We're all waiting for #62...No one's waited longer than Aaron Judge. He wants it--and he wants it before this season's over."

That was weird: Gonzalez HR, Judge strikes out, Stanton HR.

Kudos to Texas--they've pitched to Judge all night. 1-4, checked-swing single, lined into a DP.

They took out Severino after 7 with a no-hitter/near-perfect game; almost 100 pitches, only his third start since July.

Michael Kay is a legendary bozo

Doubt creeping in for the first time. If he doesn't hit one in tomorrow's double-header, and it comes down to Wednesday, I hope the Rangers start Charlie Hough.

i didn't realize people felt so strongly about the AL home run record

No one does. Just me, plus the 35,000 people who came out see if Texas could win their 67th game, plus all the people in Toronto and Baltimore (probably not Boston) booing every ball. No one else.

and certainly not me, that went to NY to try and see it! (and also Jamie XX) (and also see an old friend)

(gulp) I guess this was meant to happen on the last day of the season, just like it did with Maris.

there's another game tonight, right? + 1 more tomorrow

there it goes

Michael kay is really the worst

Don’t gulp too soon

Did someone fall into the bullpen????

Or into the moat

Yep someone did

How long until Clemenza realizes there was a second game today

whenever i see that clip in the future, i will always look at the guy who falls

Was prob a good move looking at it again; if it got dropped he would have been the only one down there

yeah, it was definitely a good move by the numbers. good process, bad result, you can't fault them

I saw 87% of it! I bowl Tuesday nights; I was up the same time Judge was. Tried to time it so I'd see every pitch, but after I threw my first ball, I looked up and the HR was in the air. So did someone catch it?

honestly the stream i was watching, and the replays i've seen, it makes it hard to see where the ball even landed

(did you pick up the spare?)

Yeah, I just looked at the replay and couldn't follow the ball...I was just too preoccupied with Judge to be my usual mediocre self tonight.

i can't speak to the veracity of this because it comes via the cardinals broadcast, but according to them, the person who caught the 62nd HR is:

"vice president of ____ investment"

"manages 197 billion worldwide"

"hedgefund manager"

he should sell the ball for $460,000

He should sell it for 69,696,642.00

Can’t wait to read MLB.com/news/meet-the-billionaire-who-caught-number-62-heartwarming-story

please don't let yourselves get played, this guy is doing fine but he's not raking in millions or anything close to it

please don't let yourselves get played

as i mentioned, this came via the cardinals broadcasters and they have no idea what is going on

His name is in a few news stories. He is a VP at an investment firm. Glassdoor estimates that employees in that position at his firm have a salary of about $340,000.

now i'm on a hunt to figure out where the cardinals broadcast heard the wrong info from. shocking

i'm guessing they heard about the total investment portfolio of the firm (197 billion?! that seems like a lot but i only have like 3 dollars so everything seems big) and just attributed it all to the guy who caught the ball, due to the fact that they've been doing nothing but watching baseball for 40+ years

i think they were referencing this:

Cory Youmans, the Rangers fan who caught Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run is the VP of Fisher Investments, a firm with a $200 billion portfolio based out of Dallas. I wonder if he’s gonna take a year or two off🫢

— Arrowhead Live (@ArrowheadLive) October 5, 2022

yes, taking the overall investment portfolio of a financial services company and associating it with one individual at VP level is laughable. 340K seems generous based on my read of his seniority but dude is comfortably into the low 6 figures for sure, as i said he's doing fine but he has a mortgage and a car payment and regular shit

i think he's also married to someone who was on the bachelor

"She was eliminated in week 1."

okay so what did the tickets in that section go for? kind of a lottery ticket priced in right?

incredible season. my mother has an Aaron Judge action figure and practically worships him, and one of my best friends is from East Meadow and is a die hard Yankee, and every time he would hit an HR this year, my mom would tell me, and 5 minutes later, he'd msg me.

one of the more incredible offensive seasons in history.

If Arraez sits tomorrow--and from what I've read, he shouldn't have played tonight but wants to win the batting title playing--Judge would overtake him with a 4-4 game; he's had four 4-5 games this season. If Arraez plays, that'll get easier or harder for Judge. A single hit from Arraez would essentially close it out.

Whatever happened to those gritty players of the past who would win batting titles by going 1-1 on the final day of the season and then pull themselves out of the game?

remember when the league dictated how many games Hank Aaron had to play in an upcoming series so the Braves couldn't bench him so he could break the lifetime record at home?

imagine them trying to tell a team they weren't allowed to pull one of the contestants for batting title out early ("Arraez must play at least 8 innings")

Those were the days of Benito Kuhn.

But a few guys got pulled out of the lineup or sat out entirely when it came to batting titles, either on their own say-so or their managers--Kuhn never seemed to interfere there. To be clear, Arraez's physical ailments are 100% real (and have been lingering for weeks), and he personally seems to be bending over backwards out of respect for Judge.

Hmmmn--maybe more of a recent phenomenon than I thought.

Jose Reyes: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/870173-nl-batting-title-jose-reyes-takes-easy-way-out-to-take-the-batting-crown

Justin Morneau: https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/28/6860091/justin-morneau-national-league-batting-title-rockies

Terry Pendelton: https://www.tampabay.com/archive/1991/10/07/pendleton-sits-out-finale-but-wins-batting-title/

I assume that the idea that Shohei is the MVP, rather than Judge, is a minority opinion, but curious to see whether the minority is 5% or 40%. So who is the best player in the AL?

People who respond by arguing that there is a difference between MVP and best player are morons.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) October 6, 2022

A minority of almost 60%...Surprised--maybe the MVP will be a lot closer than I thought.

silliness

Hey, where were you four days ago when it me vs. Tracer Hand and the world?

I wasn’t really interested in the AL record discussion, but the question of who should win MVP seems pretty settled to me. I wouldn’t take bill james’s selected twitter following of confused dads to portend much when it comes to actual voting

I meant more the question of whether they were legitimately pitching to Judge during that 20-game stretch, and whether--intentional or not--the strategy was working. Anyway, it's all moot now.

The interesting thing about the James tweet to me was just that he started out assuming one result and got the other...I wouldn't characterize James's Twitter following that way; honestly, to me the result suggests the opposite. I think old-fashioned baseball people--and I'll include myself here to a degree--see Judge running away with it; more analytical-leaning fans foresee a close vote.

I always find it, sincerely, incredibly confusing when people with analytical backgrounds like Bill James and Elon Musk do a Twitter poll and appear to take the results seriously. With Musk, there’s an explanation - he knows it’s completely unreliable but he is always trolling the world. What is James’ excuse?

I mean, I run a Twitter poll every once in a while because it’s funny but it absolutely absurd to take the results seriously. It breaks all 194228 rules of statistical methodology

James should never, ever have gone on Twitter. I don't keep up with anyone there, but from what he posts on his own site--where he constantly complains about Twitter--he just seems completely ill-suited. He's always talking about blocking people for rudeness, which I suspect amounts to them disagreeing with him. James is an old-fashioned, voice-of-God writer; I say it, you agree. He didn't start out that way; three decades of deification will do that. Even in the "Ask Bill" section of his own site, there is a sort of deference built into most questions.

Yeah I think he’s overstayed his welcome, tbh. I guess if anyone’s earned a right to be crabby and frequently and self-righteously wrong, it’s him

nobody's earned that right!

“If”!

Death to Bill James!

Seven strikeouts and counting in two games--looks lost right now.

I was lost, and now I'm found.

From a Jayson Stark column today:

Check this out. It’s the Yankees’ mountainous masher through 47 games in 2023 versus that same mountainous masher through 47 games in 2022. It’s mind-blowing.

HOME RUNS

2023 — 18
2022 — 18

MULTI-HR GAMES

2023 — 4
2022 — 4

MULTI-HIT GAMES

2023 — 13
2022 — 13

RUNS SCORED

2023 — 41
2022 — 39

RBIs

2023 — 39
2022 — 38

EXTRA-BASE HITS

2023 — 28
2022 — 27

PA/HR

2023 — 11.2
2022 — 11.3

SLASH LINE

2023 — .298/.410/.679/1.088
2022 — .303/.371/.657/1.029

Aaron Boone said he expects Aaron Judge to return this season but stopped short of guaranteeing it. “That’s an absolute. I can’t say that about anyone.”

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) June 24, 2023

Yeah the second I read about the second toe injection, it was a bad vibe. Does Aaron Judge even have a toe anymore?

Torn ligament in his toe. Can’t walk without pain. Fucking hell.

Genuinely surprised that last night was his first 3-HR game.

As measured by games, fastest ever to 250 HR.

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judge-becomes-mlbs-fastest-player-to-250-career-homers-034419437.html