2008 Primaries Thread

Hillary won't do badly in Ohio, trust. My dad grew up in cleveland and I lived in ohio for 4 yrs in college and got to know a pretty wide spectrum of folks ... columbus will be torn, ohio state leaning obama but most of the burbs etc. are gonna go pretty strictly hillary. Cincinnati and Cleveland are locks for obama. The thing is, central, country-ass ohio is a serious toss-up ... its a combination of southern rural (they are on the northern edge of the bible belt) and midwest post-industrial (i.e. Michigan) and I have a lot of trouble imagining folks voting for a black dude. you go to the wayne county fair and they are still selling confederate flag belt buckles, like dudes seem entirely unaware that ohio was, you know, in the union.

its gonna be close, i could see obama take it but that working class hillary vote is very solid there ... economics hit HARD there, and factories are still being closed down on the regular (the word when I was in school was the departure of the rubbermaid factory, thousands of jobs lost) and it happens across the state. And common sense dictates the economic argument helps hillary

ohio is seriously one of the most fascinating states in the country.

okay, so i'm gonna head down into downtown providence and see the New Obamarama Sweepstakes HQ, i'll let you folks know what it looks like and whether or not there is kool-aid

They sell confederate flag and "Redneck Outfitters" gear at the mall in my hometown, we are south of the Mason-Dixon I guess.. it's pretty depressing. flag gear also popular in West Virginia, definitely a WTF there. I don't really understand what goes on in people's heads that buy that. The economy is about as great out there as it is in Ohio so I expect people will be voting on it, not that there are many Democrats in the area any more.

Michigan native, Ted Nugent:

http://www.glitteratigossip.com/glitterati/images/2007/08/30/015.jpg

chelsea whores-out to 21 y/o super delegate http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4273078&page=1

that is some crazy shit (lolcollege super delegates).

Rae was about to head out to dinner with friends when his phone rang and the screen said, "Number withheld." The voice on the other end said: "Please hold for the former president" and then a familiar voice said "Hey Jason, it's Bill here."

"I started to think, is this real? I am a junior in college and Bill Clinton is talking to me?" Rae said as he recalled the phone call.

Clinton talked about Hillary Clinton's electability and gave Rae an update on how things were looking on the ground in South Carolina. He then regaled Rae with stories about his travels to Wisconsin as president and the cities he visited during that time.

Rae received a call from Kerry, Feb. 1, the Friday before the critical Super Tuesday showdown. Kerry, too, talked about electability and also asked Rae about college life in general and even the weather.

wow, the weather!

he botched it

it's always exciting talk with kerry

yes Bill plz tell us how things are looking on the ground in SC lolz

wtf 21yo superdelegate tho. that is nuts

"Bill here"

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/thisweekineducation/upload/2007/07/remember_john_kerry/John%20Kerry%20Damascus.jpg

who amongst us doesnt like beer bongs?

That dude on the left prefers fresh mackerel.

that dude on the left is a William Howard Taft.

who him thats just our craaaazy foreign exchange student lol

Obama should send one of his daughters over for extra Rudy-Huxtable-style cuteness assault

"i will smack this mustachio'd man right in the face, if you vote for obama. i'll do it. for the 'lulz', as they say. deal?"

lol

I'M GONNA HAVE A HUZBAND NAMED BUD

ahahaa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmKLaBAgLNs

Hustlin beat FTW

too long tho, someone needs to do a real edit w/ various speeches and news reports of him winning states over that instrumental, rather than just a straight speech

and definitely the punching bag footage

Hillary won't do badly in Ohio, trust. My dad grew up in cleveland and I lived in ohio for 4 yrs in college and got to know a pretty wide spectrum of folks ... columbus will be torn, ohio state leaning obama but most of the burbs etc. are gonna go pretty strictly hillary. Cincinnati and Cleveland are locks for obama. The thing is, central, country-ass ohio is a serious toss-up ... its a combination of southern rural (they are on the northern edge of the bible belt) and midwest post-industrial (i.e. Michigan) and I have a lot of trouble imagining folks voting for a black dude. you go to the wayne county fair and they are still selling confederate flag belt buckles, like dudes seem entirely unaware that ohio was, you know, in the union.

its gonna be close, i could see obama take it but that working class hillary vote is very solid there ... economics hit HARD there, and factories are still being closed down on the regular (the word when I was in school was the departure of the rubbermaid factory, thousands of jobs lost) and it happens across the state. And common sense dictates the economic argument helps hillary

-- deej, Monday, February 11, 2008 10:26 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

yea, i was born/raised in ohio (cleveland), but through an citizens' group i've talked to ohioans across the state and got to know the demographics pretty well. everything deej says is here is otm. and yea ohio is a pretty fascinating state.

"working class Hillary vote"? My dad works at the Boeing plant and he says that all the dudes there are vehemently anti-Hillary, even the democrats. Then again, other end of the country.

Yes, fascinating in an anthropological way. The rednecks and racists are sending it down the shitter, and those "country-ass" people are going to vote for Huckabee, not Hillary, on Tuesday. I do think Hills will win it handily though, red or blue it's a conservative state, and it favors stability, not change.

It = Ohio

RG, I think the conventional wisdom is that Hillary's specific policy proposals play better among working-class Democrats who would rather know the answer to questions like "How do I put food on my family's table?" than listen to the kind of inspirational but vague sentiment that Obama offers.

ahahaa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmKLaBAgLNs

-- deej, Monday, February 11, 2008 1:42 PM (36 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

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Barack is a butch-buster! Look at Ellen diggin' on him! Woohoooooo! LOL!

This man's got more sex appeal in his pinky than Bush has in his whole body.

But what a body it is.

I don't actually even know what kind of joke I was attempting to make there. I apologize.

it's always exciting talk with kerry

Senator Kerry is actually extremely personal when talking to him one on one. I had a conversation with him about politics that turned into a conversation about vegetarian chili fries and the Detroit Lions; he was interesting, funny, and extremely intelligent.

Obviously he needs to work on his public speaking abilities.

Yes, fascinating in an anthropological way. The rednecks and racists are sending it down the shitter, and those "country-ass" people are going to vote for Huckabee, not Hillary, on Tuesday. I do think Hills will win it handily though, red or blue it's a conservative state, and it favors stability, not change.

-- Gavin, Monday, February 11, 2008 6:11 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

nah this is b.s.
there are more shades of gray.

yea srsly

Gore not likely to endorse anyone

Come on, we all moved out of OH for very good reasons

(it's true)

Chris, Middletown, CT February 11, 2008 5:31 pm ET

He can't endorse….he's far too busy with this global warming deal…and telling everyone its caused by humans…without explaining how it was far warmer thousands of years ago….(and far colder too) - it takes a man like Al Gore to explain why man-made CO2 has caused our planet to warm 1 degree in 100 years….and why even on his own charts does the heat rise first….then CO2 level after…(funny…cause and effect work differently in Al Gores world)

you see people Al's busy now…

Reading that, those all sound like good and useful reasons for not endorsing.

PANIC:

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Holy Toledo! I never would have imagined that.

barring an Obama meltdown in their TX debate, there's no way she'll win both states comfortably.

I assume this article is overstating the case at least a bit. Even if she loses everything in Feb., and wins Tx./Ohio on razor-thin margins, I can't see her bowing out. Why should she? She'll have won the two biggest prizes since Super Tuesday's split decision.

It does seem very unlikely.

yeah but its not that she'll stop, its that her superdelegates might become unpledged

and if his % of delegates keeps rising the party will put more and more pressure on her to drop out.

That's possible, Deej, but she could still make it an agonizing process by staying in. See, e.g., Frank Rich's column, which -- while perhaps implausible -- sets forth one possible nightmare scenario.

One possibility: If the Clintons see the nomination slipping away unless it's wrested from Obama in the most vicious ways imaginable (strong-arm tactics, tearing the party apart along racial lines, allowing a horribly divisive nat'l party convention), maybe they'll decide to bow out gracefully and preserve -- perhaps even enhance -- their legacy.

Longshot, I know, but the whole premise of that article is a longshot, to me.

after SC I think that possibility might be unprecedented for the Clintons, but not necessarily a longshot.

I just think that HRC's abysmal decisions against Obama -- setting up his running the table this month (n.1) -- means his anticipated momentum may carry him through Tx. and Ohio, and if he wins those two states, too, he'll be unstoppable unless he's violently kneecapped.

____________________________
(n.1) Somebody posted the article upthread already, but apparently HRC -- despite deep fundraising advantages months ago -- decided to spend everything in the early states, while Obama spread out his ad buys to states that had primaries this weekend (the four he just swept).